Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Lau
Matches counted4,685
Win rate49.0%
Widest swing5.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 54.9% | +5.8 | 0.060 | 246 | |
| Low fence | 54.3% | +5.3 | 0.024 | 416 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.2% | +3.2 | 0.146 | 473 | |
| Octagon | 49.2% | +0.2 | 0.930 | 520 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.1% | +0.1 | 0.970 | 462 | |
| Half fence | 47.3% | -1.8 | 0.437 | 444 | |
| Open | 47.1% | -2.0 | 0.383 | 446 | |
| Rectangle | 46.7% | -2.3 | 0.304 | 443 | |
| Full fence | 46.4% | -2.6 | 0.214 | 506 | |
| Single wall | 46.0% | -3.1 | 0.157 | 470 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.25 on 9 df, p 0.084
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.4%506 | -2.70.402 | -0.90.792 | -5.80.071 | -7.90.017 | +0.50.879 | -8.40.030 | -0.70.843 | -0.30.930 | -2.80.371 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.70.402 | 49.1%462 | +1.80.580 | -3.10.345 | -5.20.124 | +3.20.332 | -5.80.145 | +2.00.537 | +2.40.469 | -0.10.976 |
| Half fence | +0.90.792 | -1.80.580 | 47.3%444 | -4.90.136 | -7.00.039 | +1.30.685 | -7.60.056 | +0.20.949 | +0.60.865 | -1.90.549 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.80.071 | +3.10.345 | +4.90.136 | 52.2%473 | -2.10.530 | +6.30.054 | -2.70.498 | +5.10.120 | +5.50.097 | +3.00.347 |
| Low fence | +7.90.017 | +5.20.124 | +7.00.039 | +2.10.530 | 54.3%416 | +8.40.013 | -0.60.891 | +7.20.034 | +7.60.026 | +5.10.121 |
| Single wall | -0.50.879 | -3.20.332 | -1.30.685 | -6.30.054 | -8.40.013 | 46.0%470 | -8.90.023 | -1.10.732 | -0.80.816 | -3.30.303 |
| Fence and open | +8.40.030 | +5.80.145 | +7.60.056 | +2.70.498 | +0.60.891 | +8.90.023 | 54.9%246 | +7.80.050 | +8.20.040 | +5.70.144 |
| Open | +0.70.843 | -2.00.537 | -0.20.949 | -5.10.120 | -7.20.034 | +1.10.732 | -7.80.050 | 47.1%446 | +0.40.915 | -2.10.506 |
| Rectangle | +0.30.930 | -2.40.469 | -0.60.865 | -5.50.097 | -7.60.026 | +0.80.816 | -8.20.040 | -0.40.915 | 46.7%443 | -2.50.438 |
| Octagon | +2.80.371 | +0.10.976 | +1.90.549 | -3.00.347 | -5.10.121 | +3.30.303 | -5.70.144 | +2.10.506 | +2.50.438 | 49.2%520 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,620
Win rate49.1%
Widest swing-8.4 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 55.8% | +6.7 | 0.058 | 190 | |
| Low fence | 54.6% | +5.6 | 0.033 | 333 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.2% | +3.1 | 0.194 | 379 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.6% | +1.5 | 0.559 | 352 | |
| Octagon | 49.6% | +0.5 | 0.825 | 391 | |
| Rectangle | 49.3% | +0.2 | 0.945 | 341 | |
| Full fence | 48.3% | -0.8 | 0.745 | 383 | |
| Half fence | 47.6% | -1.5 | 0.554 | 353 | |
| Open | 45.1% | -4.0 | 0.114 | 359 | |
| Single wall | 40.7% | -8.4 | <0.001 | 356 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 22.02 on 9 df, p 0.009
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.3%383 | -2.30.539 | +0.70.847 | -3.90.277 | -6.30.090 | +7.60.039 | -7.50.091 | +3.20.386 | -1.00.796 | -1.30.715 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.30.539 | 50.6%352 | +3.00.429 | -1.70.651 | -4.10.284 | +9.80.009 | -5.20.246 | +5.40.146 | +1.30.732 | +0.90.796 |
| Half fence | -0.70.847 | -3.00.429 | 47.6%353 | -4.70.209 | -7.10.064 | +6.90.066 | -8.20.068 | +2.50.509 | -1.70.659 | -2.00.581 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.90.277 | +1.70.651 | +4.70.209 | 52.2%379 | -2.40.520 | +11.50.002 | -3.50.424 | +7.10.053 | +3.00.425 | +2.60.466 |
| Low fence | +6.30.090 | +4.10.284 | +7.10.064 | +2.40.520 | 54.6%333 | +13.9<0.001 | -1.10.802 | +9.50.012 | +5.40.162 | +5.00.176 |
| Single wall | -7.60.039 | -9.80.009 | -6.90.066 | -11.50.002 | -13.9<0.001 | 40.7%356 | -15.1<0.001 | -4.40.235 | -8.50.024 | -8.90.015 |
| Fence and open | +7.50.091 | +5.20.246 | +8.20.068 | +3.50.424 | +1.10.802 | +15.1<0.001 | 55.8%190 | +10.70.017 | +6.50.149 | +6.20.162 |
| Open | -3.20.386 | -5.40.146 | -2.50.509 | -7.10.053 | -9.50.012 | +4.40.235 | -10.70.017 | 45.1%359 | -4.10.273 | -4.50.219 |
| Rectangle | +1.00.796 | -1.30.732 | +1.70.659 | -3.00.425 | -5.40.162 | +8.50.024 | -6.50.149 | +4.10.273 | 49.3%341 | -0.30.925 |
| Octagon | +1.30.715 | -0.90.796 | +2.00.581 | -2.60.466 | -5.00.176 | +8.90.015 | -6.20.162 | +4.50.219 | +0.30.925 | 49.6%391 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,065
Win rate48.9%
Widest swing13.4 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 62.3% | +13.4 | 0.003 | 114 | |
| Open | 55.2% | +6.2 | 0.223 | 87 | |
| Low fence | 53.0% | +4.1 | 0.437 | 83 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.1% | +3.2 | 0.515 | 94 | |
| Fence and open | 51.8% | +2.9 | 0.659 | 56 · | |
| Octagon | 48.1% | -0.9 | 0.835 | 129 | |
| Half fence | 46.1% | -2.8 | 0.581 | 91 | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.5% | -4.4 | 0.332 | 110 | |
| Full fence | 40.6% | -8.3 | 0.051 | 123 | |
| Rectangle | 38.2% | -10.7 | 0.023 | 102 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 19.82 on 9 df, p 0.019
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 40.6%123 | -3.90.548 | -5.50.421 | -11.50.093 | -12.40.081 | -21.6<0.001 | -11.10.164 | -14.50.038 | +2.40.712 | -7.40.237 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.90.548 | 44.5%110 | -1.60.820 | -7.60.280 | -8.50.244 | -17.70.008 | -7.20.377 | -10.60.138 | +6.30.352 | -3.50.587 |
| Half fence | +5.50.421 | +1.60.820 | 46.1%91 | -6.00.416 | -6.90.366 | -16.10.021 | -5.60.507 | -9.00.229 | +7.90.266 | -1.90.780 |
| Breakable half fence | +11.50.093 | +7.60.280 | +6.00.416 | 52.1%94 | -0.90.906 | -10.20.140 | +0.30.968 | -3.00.682 | +13.90.051 | +4.10.549 |
| Low fence | +12.40.081 | +8.50.244 | +6.90.366 | +0.90.906 | 53.0%83 | -9.30.193 | +1.20.887 | -2.20.778 | +14.80.044 | +5.00.482 |
| Single wall | +21.6<0.001 | +17.70.008 | +16.10.021 | +10.20.140 | +9.30.193 | 62.3%114 | +10.50.191 | +7.10.310 | +24.0<0.001 | +14.20.026 |
| Fence and open | +11.10.164 | +7.20.377 | +5.60.507 | -0.30.968 | -1.20.887 | -10.50.191 | 51.8%56 | -3.40.692 | +13.60.100 | +3.70.642 |
| Open | +14.50.038 | +10.60.138 | +9.00.229 | +3.00.682 | +2.20.778 | -7.10.310 | +3.40.692 | 55.2%87 | +16.90.020 | +7.10.305 |
| Rectangle | -2.40.712 | -6.30.352 | -7.90.266 | -13.90.051 | -14.80.044 | -24.0<0.001 | -13.60.100 | -16.90.020 | 38.2%102 | -9.80.135 |
| Octagon | +7.40.237 | +3.50.587 | +1.90.780 | -4.10.549 | -5.00.482 | -14.20.026 | -3.70.642 | -7.10.305 | +9.80.135 | 48.1%129 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.