Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Jacky vs Jeffry
Matches counted4,162
Win rate48.8%
Widest swing4.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 52.9% | +4.0 | 0.081 | 420 | |
| Open | 52.1% | +3.3 | 0.129 | 478 | |
| Rectangle | 50.9% | +2.1 | 0.354 | 446 | |
| Single wall | 50.7% | +1.9 | 0.410 | 436 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.4% | +0.6 | 0.812 | 405 | |
| Low fence | 48.7% | -0.1 | 0.953 | 378 | |
| Octagon | 47.4% | -1.4 | 0.538 | 424 | |
| Full fence | 45.3% | -3.5 | 0.161 | 362 | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.3% | -3.5 | 0.113 | 444 | |
| Fence and open | 44.8% | -4.0 | 0.267 | 183 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.67 on 9 df, p 0.233
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.3%362 | +0.00.992 | -7.60.035 | -4.10.259 | -3.40.358 | -5.40.130 | +0.50.913 | -6.80.051 | -5.60.114 | -2.10.556 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.00.992 | 45.3%444 | -7.60.026 | -4.10.231 | -3.40.329 | -5.40.108 | +0.50.916 | -6.80.038 | -5.60.093 | -2.10.528 |
| Half fence | +7.60.035 | +7.60.026 | 52.9%420 | +3.50.318 | +4.20.238 | +2.20.525 | +8.10.069 | +0.80.819 | +2.00.564 | +5.50.113 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.10.259 | +4.10.231 | -3.50.318 | 49.4%405 | +0.70.844 | -1.30.705 | +4.60.304 | -2.70.422 | -1.50.659 | +2.00.569 |
| Low fence | +3.40.358 | +3.40.329 | -4.20.238 | -0.70.844 | 48.7%378 | -2.00.567 | +3.90.390 | -3.40.321 | -2.20.525 | +1.30.719 |
| Single wall | +5.40.130 | +5.40.108 | -2.20.525 | +1.30.705 | +2.00.567 | 50.7%436 | +5.90.182 | -1.40.671 | -0.20.951 | +3.30.336 |
| Fence and open | -0.50.913 | -0.50.916 | -8.10.069 | -4.60.304 | -3.90.390 | -5.90.182 | 44.8%183 | -7.30.094 | -6.10.165 | -2.60.556 |
| Open | +6.80.051 | +6.80.038 | -0.80.819 | +2.70.422 | +3.40.321 | +1.40.671 | +7.30.094 | 52.1%478 | +1.20.716 | +4.70.160 |
| Rectangle | +5.60.114 | +5.60.093 | -2.00.564 | +1.50.659 | +2.20.525 | +0.20.951 | +6.10.165 | -1.20.716 | 50.9%446 | +3.50.303 |
| Octagon | +2.10.556 | +2.10.528 | -5.50.113 | -2.00.569 | -1.30.719 | -3.30.336 | +2.60.556 | -4.70.160 | -3.50.303 | 47.4%424 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,942
Win rate48.4%
Widest swing4.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 52.5% | +4.2 | 0.080 | 398 | |
| Open | 52.0% | +3.7 | 0.100 | 448 | |
| Rectangle | 50.1% | +1.8 | 0.446 | 415 | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +1.6 | 0.476 | 418 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.0% | +0.6 | 0.804 | 382 | |
| Low fence | 47.3% | -1.0 | 0.681 | 353 | |
| Octagon | 46.7% | -1.7 | 0.477 | 407 | |
| Fence and open | 45.4% | -3.0 | 0.420 | 172 | |
| Full fence | 45.3% | -3.0 | 0.231 | 351 | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.1% | -3.2 | 0.160 | 419 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.39 on 9 df, p 0.320
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.3%351 | +0.20.958 | -7.20.049 | -3.60.322 | -2.00.593 | -4.70.194 | -0.10.991 | -6.70.060 | -4.80.183 | -1.40.703 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.20.958 | 45.1%419 | -7.40.034 | -3.80.276 | -2.20.541 | -4.90.156 | -0.20.957 | -6.90.042 | -5.00.147 | -1.60.650 |
| Half fence | +7.20.049 | +7.40.034 | 52.5%398 | +3.60.320 | +5.20.155 | +2.50.473 | +7.20.116 | +0.50.884 | +2.40.495 | +5.80.098 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.60.322 | +3.80.276 | -3.60.320 | 49.0%382 | +1.60.656 | -1.10.767 | +3.60.432 | -3.10.380 | -1.20.742 | +2.30.524 |
| Low fence | +2.00.593 | +2.20.541 | -5.20.155 | -1.60.656 | 47.3%353 | -2.70.456 | +2.00.673 | -4.70.187 | -2.80.437 | +0.60.863 |
| Single wall | +4.70.194 | +4.90.156 | -2.50.473 | +1.10.767 | +2.70.456 | 50.0%418 | +4.70.304 | -2.00.555 | -0.10.972 | +3.30.341 |
| Fence and open | +0.10.991 | +0.20.957 | -7.20.116 | -3.60.432 | -2.00.673 | -4.70.304 | 45.4%172 | -6.70.138 | -4.80.292 | -1.30.769 |
| Open | +6.70.060 | +6.90.042 | -0.50.884 | +3.10.380 | +4.70.187 | +2.00.555 | +6.70.138 | 52.0%448 | +1.90.579 | +5.30.120 |
| Rectangle | +4.80.183 | +5.00.147 | -2.40.495 | +1.20.742 | +2.80.437 | +0.10.972 | +4.80.292 | -1.90.579 | 50.1%415 | +3.40.324 |
| Octagon | +1.40.703 | +1.60.650 | -5.80.098 | -2.30.524 | -0.60.863 | -3.30.341 | +1.30.769 | -5.30.120 | -3.40.324 | 46.7%407 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted220
Win rate57.3%
Widest swing-20.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Jacky's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 68.0% | +10.7 | 0.249 | 25 · | |
| Single wall | 66.7% | +9.4 | 0.400 | 18 · | |
| Octagon | 64.7% | +7.4 | 0.519 | 17 · | |
| Rectangle | 61.3% | +4.0 | 0.626 | 31 · | |
| Half fence | 59.1% | +1.8 | 0.856 | 22 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.5% | -0.8 | 0.939 | 23 · | |
| Open | 53.3% | -3.9 | 0.639 | 30 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.0% | -9.3 | 0.319 | 25 · | |
| Full fence | 45.5% | -11.8 | 0.416 | 11 · | |
| Fence and open | 36.4% | -20.9 | 0.150 | 11 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Jacky's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.11 on 9 df, p 0.729
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.5%11 | -2.50.888 | -13.60.458 | -11.10.545 | -22.60.201 | -21.20.260 | +9.10.665 | -7.90.655 | -15.80.362 | -19.30.315 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.50.888 | 48.0%25 | -11.10.447 | -8.50.555 | -20.00.152 | -18.70.224 | +11.60.517 | -5.30.694 | -13.30.320 | -16.70.286 |
| Half fence | +13.60.458 | +11.10.447 | 59.1%22 | +2.60.862 | -8.90.526 | -7.60.622 | +22.70.218 | +5.80.680 | -2.20.872 | -5.60.721 |
| Breakable half fence | +11.10.545 | +8.50.555 | -2.60.862 | 56.5%23 | -11.50.412 | -10.20.509 | +20.20.271 | +3.20.817 | -4.80.724 | -8.20.601 |
| Low fence | +22.60.201 | +20.00.152 | +8.90.526 | +11.50.412 | 68.0%25 | +1.30.927 | +31.60.076 | +14.70.269 | +6.70.602 | +3.30.824 |
| Single wall | +21.20.260 | +18.70.224 | +7.60.622 | +10.20.509 | -1.30.927 | 66.7%18 | +30.30.111 | +13.30.364 | +5.40.707 | +2.00.903 |
| Fence and open | -9.10.665 | -11.60.517 | -22.70.218 | -20.20.271 | -31.60.076 | -30.30.111 | 36.4%11 | -17.00.335 | -24.90.154 | -28.40.142 |
| Open | +7.90.655 | +5.30.694 | -5.80.680 | -3.20.817 | -14.70.269 | -13.30.364 | +17.00.335 | 53.3%30 | -8.00.530 | -11.40.449 |
| Rectangle | +15.80.362 | +13.30.320 | +2.20.872 | +4.80.724 | -6.70.602 | -5.40.707 | +24.90.154 | +8.00.530 | 61.3%31 | -3.40.815 |
| Octagon | +19.30.315 | +16.70.286 | +5.60.721 | +8.20.601 | -3.30.824 | -2.00.903 | +28.40.142 | +11.40.449 | +3.40.815 | 64.7%17 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.