Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Eileen vs Lion
Matches counted732
Win rate52.5%
Widest swing-32.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Eileen's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 64.1% | +11.6 | 0.052 | 64 · | |
| Rectangle | 58.3% | +5.9 | 0.293 | 72 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.9% | +4.4 | 0.481 | 58 · | |
| Half fence | 55.0% | +2.5 | 0.612 | 91 | |
| Low fence | 53.1% | +0.7 | 0.911 | 64 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.6% | +0.2 | 0.975 | 76 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | -2.5 | 0.650 | 76 · | |
| Octagon | 47.2% | -5.2 | 0.349 | 72 · | |
| Full fence | 46.0% | -6.5 | 0.197 | 87 | |
| Fence and open | 20.0% | -32.5 | 0.011 | 15 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Eileen's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.93 on 9 df, p 0.125
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.0%87 | -6.70.397 | -9.00.232 | -10.90.198 | -7.10.385 | -4.00.608 | +26.00.060 | -18.10.028 | -12.30.121 | -1.20.875 |
| Breakable full fence | +6.70.397 | 52.6%76 | -2.30.765 | -4.30.623 | -0.50.954 | +2.60.746 | +32.60.021 | -11.40.172 | -5.70.486 | +5.40.511 |
| Half fence | +9.00.232 | +2.30.765 | 55.0%91 | -1.90.815 | +1.80.823 | +5.00.524 | +35.00.012 | -9.10.256 | -3.40.665 | +7.70.327 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.90.198 | +4.30.623 | +1.90.815 | 56.9%58 | +3.80.676 | +6.90.428 | +36.90.011 | -7.20.418 | -1.40.869 | +9.70.273 |
| Low fence | +7.10.385 | +0.50.954 | -1.80.823 | -3.80.676 | 53.1%64 | +3.10.712 | +33.10.021 | -10.90.209 | -5.20.541 | +5.90.492 |
| Single wall | +4.00.608 | -2.60.746 | -5.00.524 | -6.90.428 | -3.10.712 | 50.0%76 | +30.00.033 | -14.10.095 | -8.30.309 | +2.80.735 |
| Fence and open | -26.00.060 | -32.60.021 | -35.00.012 | -36.90.011 | -33.10.021 | -30.00.033 | 20.0%15 | -44.10.002 | -38.30.007 | -27.20.052 |
| Open | +18.10.028 | +11.40.172 | +9.10.256 | +7.20.418 | +10.90.209 | +14.10.095 | +44.10.002 | 64.1%64 | +5.70.494 | +16.80.049 |
| Rectangle | +12.30.121 | +5.70.486 | +3.40.665 | +1.40.869 | +5.20.541 | +8.30.309 | +38.30.007 | -5.70.494 | 58.3%72 | +11.10.182 |
| Octagon | +1.20.875 | -5.40.511 | -7.70.327 | -9.70.273 | -5.90.492 | -2.80.735 | +27.20.052 | -16.80.049 | -11.10.182 | 47.2%72 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted412
Win rate54.1%
Widest swing-45.0 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Eileen's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 65.7% | +11.6 | 0.150 | 35 · | |
| Half fence | 65.2% | +11.1 | 0.109 | 46 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 61.4% | +7.2 | 0.308 | 44 · | |
| Rectangle | 59.0% | +4.8 | 0.523 | 39 · | |
| Single wall | 58.3% | +4.2 | 0.534 | 48 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.9% | +0.8 | 0.905 | 51 · | |
| Low fence | 52.0% | -2.1 | 0.826 | 25 · | |
| Full fence | 42.2% | -11.9 | 0.090 | 45 · | |
| Octagon | 41.5% | -12.7 | 0.086 | 41 · | |
| Fence and open | 9.1% | -45.0 | 0.002 | 11 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Eileen's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 20.08 on 9 df, p 0.017
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 42.2%45 | -12.70.215 | -23.00.028 | -19.10.071 | -9.80.431 | -16.10.120 | +33.10.040 | -23.50.037 | -16.80.126 | +0.80.943 |
| Breakable full fence | +12.70.215 | 54.9%51 | -10.30.301 | -6.50.525 | +2.90.812 | -3.40.731 | +45.80.006 | -10.80.316 | -4.10.699 | +13.40.200 |
| Half fence | +23.00.028 | +10.30.301 | 65.2%46 | +3.90.705 | +13.20.276 | +6.90.492 | +56.1<0.001 | -0.50.963 | +6.20.554 | +23.80.026 |
| Breakable half fence | +19.10.071 | +6.50.525 | -3.90.705 | 61.4%44 | +9.40.449 | +3.00.767 | +52.30.002 | -4.30.690 | +2.40.824 | +19.90.067 |
| Low fence | +9.80.431 | -2.90.812 | -13.20.276 | -9.40.449 | 52.0%25 | -6.30.605 | +42.90.015 | -13.70.285 | -7.00.583 | +10.50.404 |
| Single wall | +16.10.120 | +3.40.731 | -6.90.492 | -3.00.767 | +6.30.605 | 58.3%48 | +49.20.003 | -7.40.495 | -0.60.952 | +16.90.113 |
| Fence and open | -33.10.040 | -45.80.006 | -56.1<0.001 | -52.30.002 | -42.90.015 | -49.20.003 | 9.1%11 | -56.60.001 | -49.90.003 | -32.40.045 |
| Open | +23.50.037 | +10.80.316 | +0.50.963 | +4.30.690 | +13.70.285 | +7.40.495 | +56.60.001 | 65.7%35 | +6.70.551 | +24.20.035 |
| Rectangle | +16.80.126 | +4.10.699 | -6.20.554 | -2.40.824 | +7.00.583 | +0.60.952 | +49.90.003 | -6.70.551 | 59.0%39 | +17.50.117 |
| Octagon | -0.80.943 | -13.40.200 | -23.80.026 | -19.90.067 | -10.50.404 | -16.90.113 | +32.40.045 | -24.20.035 | -17.50.117 | 41.5%41 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted320
Win rate50.3%
Widest swing-14.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Eileen's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 62.1% | +11.8 | 0.184 | 29 · | |
| Rectangle | 57.6% | +7.3 | 0.378 | 33 · | |
| Octagon | 54.8% | +4.5 | 0.596 | 31 · | |
| Low fence | 53.9% | +3.5 | 0.638 | 39 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | -0.3 | 0.965 | 42 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -0.3 | 0.990 | 4 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.0% | -2.3 | 0.810 | 25 · | |
| Half fence | 44.4% | -5.9 | 0.396 | 45 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 42.9% | -7.5 | 0.568 | 14 · | |
| Single wall | 35.7% | -14.6 | 0.106 | 28 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Eileen's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.12 on 9 df, p 0.728
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%42 | +2.00.874 | +5.60.604 | +7.10.643 | -3.90.729 | +14.30.238 | +0.01.000 | -12.10.315 | -7.60.514 | -4.80.683 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.00.874 | 48.0%25 | +3.60.775 | +5.10.757 | -5.80.648 | +12.30.365 | -2.00.941 | -14.10.300 | -9.60.469 | -6.80.611 |
| Half fence | -5.60.604 | -3.60.775 | 44.4%45 | +1.60.917 | -9.40.390 | +8.70.461 | -5.60.830 | -17.60.139 | -13.10.252 | -10.40.373 |
| Breakable half fence | -7.10.643 | -5.10.757 | -1.60.917 | 42.9%14 | -11.00.480 | +7.20.653 | -7.10.800 | -19.20.235 | -14.70.355 | -12.00.457 |
| Low fence | +3.90.729 | +5.80.648 | +9.40.390 | +11.00.480 | 53.9%39 | +18.10.142 | +3.90.883 | -8.20.498 | -3.70.751 | -1.00.934 |
| Single wall | -14.30.238 | -12.30.365 | -8.70.461 | -7.20.653 | -18.10.142 | 35.7%28 | -14.30.581 | -26.40.047 | -21.90.088 | -19.10.141 |
| Fence and open | -0.01.000 | +2.00.941 | +5.60.830 | +7.10.800 | -3.90.883 | +14.30.581 | 50.0%4 | -12.10.643 | -7.60.773 | -4.80.855 |
| Open | +12.10.315 | +14.10.300 | +17.60.139 | +19.20.235 | +8.20.498 | +26.40.047 | +12.10.643 | 62.1%29 | +4.50.719 | +7.20.570 |
| Rectangle | +7.60.514 | +9.60.469 | +13.10.252 | +14.70.355 | +3.70.751 | +21.90.088 | +7.60.773 | -4.50.719 | 57.6%33 | +2.70.825 |
| Octagon | +4.80.683 | +6.80.611 | +10.40.373 | +12.00.457 | +1.00.934 | +19.10.141 | +4.80.855 | -7.20.570 | -2.70.825 | 54.8%31 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.