Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Wolf
Matches counted430
Win rate45.4%
Widest swing-14.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 56.2% | +10.9 | 0.107 | 48 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.5% | +9.2 | 0.269 | 33 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +4.7 | 0.463 | 54 · | |
| Full fence | 49.0% | +3.6 | 0.588 | 49 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.0% | +0.7 | 0.906 | 63 · | |
| Single wall | 45.7% | +0.4 | 0.964 | 35 · | |
| Fence and open | 43.5% | -1.9 | 0.853 | 23 · | |
| Half fence | 40.0% | -5.3 | 0.507 | 35 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 39.0% | -6.3 | 0.392 | 41 · | |
| Octagon | 31.2% | -14.1 | 0.096 | 32 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.68 on 9 df, p 0.567
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.0%49 | +10.00.344 | +9.00.415 | +3.00.757 | -7.30.473 | +3.30.768 | +5.50.663 | -1.00.918 | -5.60.621 | +17.70.114 |
| Breakable full fence | -10.00.344 | 39.0%41 | -1.00.931 | -7.00.481 | -17.20.105 | -6.70.556 | -4.50.728 | -11.00.287 | -15.50.183 | +7.80.491 |
| Half fence | -9.00.415 | +1.00.931 | 40.0%35 | -6.00.564 | -16.20.144 | -5.70.629 | -3.50.792 | -10.00.355 | -14.60.230 | +8.80.456 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.00.757 | +7.00.481 | +6.00.564 | 46.0%63 | -10.20.286 | +0.30.976 | +2.50.833 | -4.00.668 | -8.50.428 | +14.80.166 |
| Low fence | +7.30.473 | +17.20.105 | +16.20.144 | +10.20.286 | 56.2%48 | +10.50.343 | +12.80.313 | +6.20.528 | +1.70.879 | +25.00.028 |
| Single wall | -3.30.768 | +6.70.556 | +5.70.629 | -0.30.976 | -10.50.343 | 45.7%35 | +2.20.867 | -4.30.693 | -8.80.467 | +14.50.225 |
| Fence and open | -5.50.663 | +4.50.728 | +3.50.792 | -2.50.833 | -12.80.313 | -2.20.867 | 43.5%23 | -6.50.600 | -11.10.415 | +12.20.352 |
| Open | +1.00.918 | +11.00.287 | +10.00.355 | +4.00.668 | -6.20.528 | +4.30.693 | +6.50.600 | 50.0%54 | -4.50.681 | +18.80.090 |
| Rectangle | +5.60.621 | +15.50.183 | +14.60.230 | +8.50.428 | -1.70.879 | +8.80.467 | +11.10.415 | +4.50.681 | 54.5%33 | +23.30.058 |
| Octagon | -17.70.114 | -7.80.491 | -8.80.456 | -14.80.166 | -25.00.028 | -14.50.225 | -12.20.352 | -18.80.090 | -23.30.058 | 31.2%32 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted415
Win rate45.8%
Widest swing-13.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 58.7% | +12.9 | 0.062 | 46 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.9% | +8.1 | 0.394 | 26 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +4.2 | 0.505 | 54 · | |
| Full fence | 49.0% | +3.2 | 0.632 | 49 · | |
| Fence and open | 47.6% | +1.8 | 0.862 | 21 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.7% | +0.9 | 0.882 | 60 · | |
| Single wall | 45.7% | -0.1 | 0.993 | 35 · | |
| Half fence | 40.0% | -5.8 | 0.473 | 35 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 39.0% | -6.8 | 0.360 | 41 · | |
| Octagon | 32.3% | -13.5 | 0.116 | 31 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.75 on 9 df, p 0.559
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.0%49 | +10.00.344 | +9.00.415 | +2.30.810 | -9.70.343 | +3.30.768 | +1.40.917 | -1.00.918 | -4.90.688 | +16.70.140 |
| Breakable full fence | -10.00.344 | 39.0%41 | -1.00.931 | -7.70.447 | -19.70.067 | -6.70.556 | -8.60.516 | -11.00.287 | -14.80.234 | +6.80.554 |
| Half fence | -9.00.415 | +1.00.931 | 40.0%35 | -6.70.528 | -18.70.095 | -5.70.629 | -7.60.577 | -10.00.355 | -13.80.283 | +7.70.514 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.30.810 | +7.70.447 | +6.70.528 | 46.7%60 | -12.00.219 | +1.00.928 | -0.90.940 | -3.30.722 | -7.20.541 | +14.40.187 |
| Low fence | +9.70.343 | +19.70.067 | +18.70.095 | +12.00.219 | 58.7%46 | +13.00.246 | +11.10.398 | +8.70.385 | +4.80.690 | +26.40.023 |
| Single wall | -3.30.768 | +6.70.556 | +5.70.629 | -1.00.928 | -13.00.246 | 45.7%35 | -1.90.890 | -4.30.693 | -8.10.530 | +13.40.264 |
| Fence and open | -1.40.917 | +8.60.516 | +7.60.577 | +0.90.940 | -11.10.398 | +1.90.890 | 47.6%21 | -2.40.853 | -6.20.671 | +15.40.264 |
| Open | +1.00.918 | +11.00.287 | +10.00.355 | +3.30.722 | -8.70.385 | +4.30.693 | +2.40.853 | 50.0%54 | -3.90.747 | +17.70.112 |
| Rectangle | +4.90.688 | +14.80.234 | +13.80.283 | +7.20.541 | -4.80.690 | +8.10.530 | +6.20.671 | +3.90.747 | 53.9%26 | +21.60.100 |
| Octagon | -16.70.140 | -6.80.554 | -7.70.514 | -14.40.187 | -26.40.023 | -13.40.264 | -15.40.264 | -17.70.112 | -21.60.100 | 32.3%31 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted15
Win rate33.3%
Widest swing-33.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 57.1% | +23.8 | 0.067 | 7 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 33.3% | +0.0 | 1.000 | 3 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -33.3 | 0.283 | 2 · | |
| Low fence | 0.0% | -33.3 | 0.283 | 2 · | |
| Octagon | 0.0% | -33.3 | 0.464 | 1 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.29 on 4 df, p 0.369
| Stage | Break. half | Low | Mixed | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 33.3%3 | +33.30.361 | +33.30.361 | -23.80.490 | +33.30.505 |
| Low fence | -33.30.361 | 0.0%2 | +0.01.000 | -57.10.151 | +0.01.000 |
| Fence and open | -33.30.361 | -0.01.000 | 0.0%2 | -57.10.151 | +0.01.000 |
| Rectangle | +23.80.490 | +57.10.151 | +57.10.151 | 57.1%7 | +57.10.285 |
| Octagon | -33.30.505 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -57.10.285 | 0.0%1 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.