Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Vanessa
Matches counted220
Win rate51.4%
Widest swing-26.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 68.0% | +16.6 | 0.077 | 25 · | |
| Octagon | 64.3% | +12.9 | 0.317 | 14 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 60.9% | +9.5 | 0.335 | 23 · | |
| Low fence | 57.6% | +6.2 | 0.439 | 33 · | |
| Full fence | 52.4% | +1.0 | 0.922 | 21 · | |
| Half fence | 47.6% | -3.7 | 0.718 | 21 · | |
| Open | 42.9% | -8.5 | 0.412 | 21 · | |
| Rectangle | 41.7% | -9.7 | 0.314 | 24 · | |
| Fence and open | 37.5% | -13.9 | 0.424 | 8 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 25.0% | -26.4 | 0.060 | 12 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.62 on 9 df, p 0.303
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.4%21 | +27.40.126 | +4.80.758 | -8.50.570 | -5.20.708 | -15.60.280 | +14.90.474 | +9.50.537 | +10.70.472 | -11.90.486 |
| Breakable full fence | -27.40.126 | 25.0%12 | -22.60.201 | -35.90.044 | -32.60.053 | -43.00.014 | -12.50.550 | -17.90.305 | -16.70.326 | -39.30.045 |
| Half fence | -4.80.758 | +22.60.201 | 47.6%21 | -13.20.378 | -10.00.474 | -20.40.162 | +10.10.624 | +4.80.757 | +6.00.688 | -16.70.332 |
| Breakable half fence | +8.50.570 | +35.90.044 | +13.20.378 | 60.9%23 | +3.30.805 | -7.10.606 | +23.40.253 | +18.00.232 | +19.20.188 | -3.40.835 |
| Low fence | +5.20.708 | +32.60.053 | +10.00.474 | -3.30.805 | 57.6%33 | -10.40.418 | +20.10.307 | +14.70.291 | +15.90.236 | -6.70.668 |
| Single wall | +15.60.280 | +43.00.014 | +20.40.162 | +7.10.606 | +10.40.418 | 68.0%25 | +30.50.124 | +25.10.087 | +26.30.064 | +3.70.813 |
| Fence and open | -14.90.474 | +12.50.550 | -10.10.624 | -23.40.253 | -20.10.307 | -30.50.124 | 37.5%8 | -5.40.793 | -4.20.835 | -26.80.225 |
| Open | -9.50.537 | +17.90.305 | -4.80.757 | -18.00.232 | -14.70.291 | -25.10.087 | +5.40.793 | 42.9%21 | +1.20.936 | -21.40.214 |
| Rectangle | -10.70.472 | +16.70.326 | -6.00.688 | -19.20.188 | -15.90.236 | -26.30.064 | +4.20.835 | -1.20.936 | 41.7%24 | -22.60.179 |
| Octagon | +11.90.486 | +39.30.045 | +16.70.332 | +3.40.835 | +6.70.668 | -3.70.813 | +26.80.225 | +21.40.214 | +22.60.179 | 64.3%14 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted199
Win rate52.8%
Widest swing26.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 79.0% | +26.2 | 0.016 | 19 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 61.9% | +9.1 | 0.375 | 21 · | |
| Octagon | 61.5% | +8.8 | 0.512 | 13 · | |
| Low fence | 58.6% | +5.9 | 0.494 | 29 · | |
| Full fence | 55.0% | +2.2 | 0.833 | 20 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -2.8 | 0.890 | 6 · | |
| Half fence | 47.4% | -5.4 | 0.620 | 19 · | |
| Open | 42.1% | -10.7 | 0.328 | 19 · | |
| Rectangle | 41.7% | -11.1 | 0.246 | 24 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 27.3% | -25.5 | 0.081 | 11 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.91 on 9 df, p 0.219
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.0%20 | +27.70.138 | +7.60.634 | -6.90.654 | -3.60.801 | -23.90.113 | +5.00.829 | +12.90.421 | +13.30.378 | -6.50.710 |
| Breakable full fence | -27.70.138 | 27.3%11 | -20.10.279 | -34.60.063 | -31.40.077 | -51.70.005 | -22.70.349 | -14.80.417 | -14.40.413 | -34.30.093 |
| Half fence | -7.60.634 | +20.10.279 | 47.4%19 | -14.50.356 | -11.20.444 | -31.60.044 | -2.60.910 | +5.30.744 | +5.70.708 | -14.20.430 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.90.654 | +34.60.063 | +14.50.356 | 61.9%21 | +3.30.815 | -17.10.240 | +11.90.601 | +19.80.210 | +20.20.175 | +0.40.983 |
| Low fence | +3.60.801 | +31.40.077 | +11.20.444 | -3.30.815 | 58.6%29 | -20.30.144 | +8.60.698 | +16.50.263 | +16.90.219 | -2.90.859 |
| Single wall | +23.90.113 | +51.70.005 | +31.60.044 | +17.10.240 | +20.30.144 | 79.0%19 | +28.90.169 | +36.80.020 | +37.30.014 | +17.40.282 |
| Fence and open | -5.00.829 | +22.70.349 | +2.60.910 | -11.90.601 | -8.60.698 | -28.90.169 | 50.0%6 | +7.90.734 | +8.30.713 | -11.50.636 |
| Open | -12.90.421 | +14.80.417 | -5.30.744 | -19.80.210 | -16.50.263 | -36.80.020 | -7.90.734 | 42.1%19 | +0.40.977 | -19.40.280 |
| Rectangle | -13.30.378 | +14.40.413 | -5.70.708 | -20.20.175 | -16.90.219 | -37.30.014 | -8.30.713 | -0.40.977 | 41.7%24 | -19.90.248 |
| Octagon | +6.50.710 | +34.30.093 | +14.20.430 | -0.40.983 | +2.90.859 | -17.40.282 | +11.50.636 | +19.40.280 | +19.90.248 | 61.5%13 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted21
Win rate38.1%
Widest swing61.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 100.0% | +61.9 | 0.191 | 1 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | +11.9 | 0.716 | 2 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +11.9 | 0.716 | 2 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +11.9 | 0.586 | 4 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +11.9 | 0.716 | 2 · | |
| Single wall | 33.3% | -4.8 | 0.776 | 6 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 0.0% | -38.1 | 0.421 | 1 · | |
| Full fence | 0.0% | -38.1 | 0.421 | 1 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -38.1 | 0.243 | 2 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.75 on 8 df, p 0.784
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 0.0%1 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.386 | -50.00.386 | -50.00.361 | -33.30.495 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.386 | -100.00.157 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.01.000 | 0.0%1 | -50.00.386 | -50.00.386 | -50.00.361 | -33.30.495 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.386 | -100.00.157 |
| Half fence | +50.00.386 | +50.00.386 | 50.0%2 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | +16.70.673 | +50.00.248 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.386 |
| Breakable half fence | +50.00.386 | +50.00.386 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%2 | +0.01.000 | +16.70.673 | +50.00.248 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.386 |
| Low fence | +50.00.361 | +50.00.361 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%4 | +16.70.598 | +50.00.221 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.361 |
| Single wall | +33.30.495 | +33.30.495 | -16.70.673 | -16.70.673 | -16.70.598 | 33.3%6 | +33.30.346 | -16.70.673 | -66.70.212 |
| Fence and open | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -50.00.248 | -50.00.248 | -50.00.221 | -33.30.346 | 0.0%2 | -50.00.248 | -100.00.083 |
| Open | +50.00.386 | +50.00.386 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | +16.70.673 | +50.00.248 | 50.0%2 | -50.00.386 |
| Octagon | +100.00.157 | +100.00.157 | +50.00.386 | +50.00.386 | +50.00.361 | +66.70.212 | +100.00.083 | +50.00.386 | 100.0%1 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.