Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Taka
Matches counted161
Win rate45.3%
Widest swing21.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 66.7% | +21.3 | 0.123 | 12 · | |
| Full fence | 54.5% | +9.2 | 0.351 | 22 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +4.7 | 0.674 | 18 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +4.7 | 0.760 | 10 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 45.5% | +0.1 | 0.991 | 22 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.9% | -4.4 | 0.653 | 22 · | |
| Octagon | 40.0% | -5.3 | 0.726 | 10 · | |
| Low fence | 39.1% | -6.2 | 0.518 | 23 · | |
| Fence and open | 36.4% | -9.0 | 0.535 | 11 · | |
| Open | 33.3% | -12.0 | 0.456 | 9 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.70 on 9 df, p 0.860
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.5%22 | +13.60.365 | -12.10.493 | +9.10.546 | +15.40.300 | +4.50.811 | +18.20.325 | +21.20.283 | +4.50.775 | +14.60.446 |
| Breakable full fence | -13.60.365 | 40.9%22 | -25.80.151 | -4.50.761 | +1.80.903 | -9.10.631 | +4.50.801 | +7.60.694 | -9.10.565 | +0.90.961 |
| Half fence | +12.10.493 | +25.80.151 | 66.7%12 | +21.20.236 | +27.50.122 | +16.70.429 | +30.30.146 | +33.30.130 | +16.70.367 | +26.70.211 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.10.546 | +4.50.761 | -21.20.236 | 45.5%22 | +6.30.668 | -4.50.811 | +9.10.618 | +12.10.535 | -4.50.775 | +5.50.773 |
| Low fence | -15.40.300 | -1.80.903 | -27.50.122 | -6.30.668 | 39.1%23 | -10.90.561 | +2.80.877 | +5.80.761 | -10.90.486 | -0.90.963 |
| Single wall | -4.50.811 | +9.10.631 | -16.70.429 | +4.50.811 | +10.90.561 | 50.0%10 | +13.60.528 | +16.70.463 | +0.01.000 | +10.00.653 |
| Fence and open | -18.20.325 | -4.50.801 | -30.30.146 | -9.10.618 | -2.80.877 | -13.60.528 | 36.4%11 | +3.00.888 | -13.60.474 | -3.60.864 |
| Open | -21.20.283 | -7.60.694 | -33.30.130 | -12.10.535 | -5.80.761 | -16.70.463 | -3.00.888 | 33.3%9 | -16.70.411 | -6.70.764 |
| Rectangle | -4.50.775 | +9.10.565 | -16.70.367 | +4.50.775 | +10.90.486 | -0.01.000 | +13.60.474 | +16.70.411 | 50.0%18 | +10.00.611 |
| Octagon | -14.60.446 | -0.90.961 | -26.70.211 | -5.50.773 | +0.90.963 | -10.00.653 | +3.60.864 | +6.70.764 | -10.00.611 | 40.0%10 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted148
Win rate43.9%
Widest swing22.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 66.7% | +22.8 | 0.098 | 12 · | |
| Full fence | 52.6% | +8.7 | 0.412 | 19 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +6.1 | 0.579 | 18 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +6.1 | 0.722 | 8 · | |
| Fence and open | 44.4% | +0.5 | 0.974 | 9 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.9% | -3.0 | 0.758 | 22 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 40.0% | -3.9 | 0.704 | 20 · | |
| Octagon | 40.0% | -3.9 | 0.796 | 10 · | |
| Low fence | 35.0% | -8.9 | 0.387 | 20 · | |
| Open | 25.0% | -18.9 | 0.268 | 8 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.54 on 9 df, p 0.785
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.6%19 | +11.70.453 | -14.00.440 | +12.60.429 | +17.60.267 | +2.60.901 | +8.20.686 | +27.60.187 | +2.60.873 | +12.60.518 |
| Breakable full fence | -11.70.453 | 40.9%22 | -25.80.151 | +0.90.952 | +5.90.694 | -9.10.657 | -3.50.856 | +15.90.424 | -9.10.565 | +0.90.961 |
| Half fence | +14.00.440 | +25.80.151 | 66.7%12 | +26.70.144 | +31.70.082 | +16.70.456 | +22.20.309 | +41.70.068 | +16.70.367 | +26.70.211 |
| Breakable half fence | -12.60.429 | -0.90.952 | -26.70.144 | 40.0%20 | +5.00.744 | -10.00.629 | -4.40.822 | +15.00.454 | -10.00.536 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | -17.60.267 | -5.90.694 | -31.70.082 | -5.00.744 | 35.0%20 | -15.00.463 | -9.40.628 | +10.00.609 | -15.00.350 | -5.00.789 |
| Single wall | -2.60.901 | +9.10.657 | -16.70.456 | +10.00.629 | +15.00.463 | 50.0%8 | +5.60.819 | +25.00.302 | +0.01.000 | +10.00.671 |
| Fence and open | -8.20.686 | +3.50.856 | -22.20.309 | +4.40.822 | +9.40.628 | -5.60.819 | 44.4%9 | +19.40.402 | -5.60.785 | +4.40.845 |
| Open | -27.60.187 | -15.90.424 | -41.70.068 | -15.00.454 | -10.00.609 | -25.00.302 | -19.40.402 | 25.0%8 | -25.00.234 | -15.00.502 |
| Rectangle | -2.60.873 | +9.10.565 | -16.70.367 | +10.00.536 | +15.00.350 | -0.01.000 | +5.60.785 | +25.00.234 | 50.0%18 | +10.00.611 |
| Octagon | -12.60.518 | -0.90.961 | -26.70.211 | -0.01.000 | +5.00.789 | -10.00.671 | -4.40.845 | +15.00.502 | -10.00.611 | 40.0%10 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted13
Win rate61.5%
Widest swing-61.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 100.0% | +38.5 | 0.224 | 2 · | |
| Open | 100.0% | +38.5 | 0.411 | 1 · | |
| Full fence | 66.7% | +5.1 | 0.835 | 3 · | |
| Low fence | 66.7% | +5.1 | 0.835 | 3 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | -11.5 | 0.715 | 2 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -61.5 | 0.052 | 2 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.25 on 5 df, p 0.386
| Stage | Full | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 66.7%3 | -33.30.361 | +0.01.000 | +16.70.709 | +66.70.136 | -33.30.505 |
| Breakable half fence | +33.30.361 | 100.0%2 | +33.30.361 | +50.00.248 | +100.00.046 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | -0.01.000 | -33.30.361 | 66.7%3 | +16.70.709 | +66.70.136 | -33.30.505 |
| Single wall | -16.70.709 | -50.00.248 | -16.70.709 | 50.0%2 | +50.00.248 | -50.00.386 |
| Fence and open | -66.70.136 | -100.00.046 | -66.70.136 | -50.00.248 | 0.0%2 | -100.00.083 |
| Open | +33.30.505 | -0.01.000 | +33.30.505 | +50.00.386 | +100.00.083 | 100.0%1 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.