Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Shun
Matches counted466
Win rate57.3%
Widest swing-24.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 66.7% | +9.4 | 0.198 | 42 · | |
| Low fence | 64.3% | +7.0 | 0.337 | 42 · | |
| Full fence | 63.5% | +6.2 | 0.340 | 52 · | |
| Fence and open | 59.0% | +1.7 | 0.825 | 39 · | |
| Open | 59.0% | +1.7 | 0.825 | 39 · | |
| Single wall | 56.4% | -0.9 | 0.882 | 55 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.2% | -3.1 | 0.611 | 59 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.0% | -3.3 | 0.566 | 63 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.6% | -4.7 | 0.544 | 38 · | |
| Octagon | 33.3% | -24.0 | 0.036 | 18 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.34 on 9 df, p 0.500
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 63.5%52 | +10.80.302 | -3.20.746 | +9.50.304 | -0.80.934 | +7.10.454 | +4.50.663 | +4.50.663 | +9.20.325 | +30.10.027 |
| Breakable full fence | -10.80.302 | 52.6%38 | -14.00.201 | -1.30.896 | -11.70.290 | -3.70.722 | -6.30.575 | -6.30.575 | -1.60.877 | +19.30.176 |
| Half fence | +3.20.746 | +14.00.201 | 66.7%42 | +12.70.195 | +2.40.818 | +10.30.303 | +7.70.474 | +7.70.474 | +12.40.210 | +33.30.017 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.50.304 | +1.30.896 | -12.70.195 | 54.0%63 | -10.30.294 | -2.40.794 | -5.00.621 | -5.00.621 | -0.30.976 | +20.60.123 |
| Low fence | +0.80.934 | +11.70.290 | -2.40.818 | +10.30.294 | 64.3%42 | +7.90.430 | +5.30.623 | +5.30.623 | +10.10.313 | +31.00.027 |
| Single wall | -7.10.454 | +3.70.722 | -10.30.303 | +2.40.794 | -7.90.430 | 56.4%55 | -2.60.801 | -2.60.801 | +2.10.820 | +23.00.090 |
| Fence and open | -4.50.663 | +6.30.575 | -7.70.474 | +5.00.621 | -5.30.623 | +2.60.801 | 59.0%39 | +0.01.000 | +4.70.644 | +25.60.072 |
| Open | -4.50.663 | +6.30.575 | -7.70.474 | +5.00.621 | -5.30.623 | +2.60.801 | -0.01.000 | 59.0%39 | +4.70.644 | +25.60.072 |
| Rectangle | -9.20.325 | +1.60.877 | -12.40.210 | +0.30.976 | -10.10.313 | -2.10.820 | -4.70.644 | -4.70.644 | 54.2%59 | +20.90.120 |
| Octagon | -30.10.027 | -19.30.176 | -33.30.017 | -20.60.123 | -31.00.027 | -23.00.090 | -25.60.072 | -25.60.072 | -20.90.120 | 33.3%18 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted451
Win rate57.2%
Widest swing-23.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 66.7% | +9.5 | 0.193 | 42 · | |
| Low fence | 63.4% | +6.2 | 0.399 | 41 · | |
| Full fence | 62.8% | +5.5 | 0.396 | 51 · | |
| Fence and open | 61.1% | +3.9 | 0.622 | 36 · | |
| Open | 56.8% | -0.5 | 0.954 | 37 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 56.2% | -1.0 | 0.910 | 32 · | |
| Single wall | 55.6% | -1.6 | 0.794 | 54 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.2% | -3.0 | 0.621 | 59 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.2% | -4.0 | 0.495 | 62 · | |
| Octagon | 33.3% | -23.9 | 0.037 | 18 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.93 on 9 df, p 0.542
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 62.8%51 | +6.50.556 | -3.90.694 | +9.50.308 | -0.70.947 | +7.20.454 | +1.60.877 | +6.00.571 | +8.50.367 | +29.40.031 |
| Breakable full fence | -6.50.556 | 56.2%32 | -10.40.360 | +3.00.780 | -7.20.535 | +0.70.950 | -4.90.684 | -0.50.966 | +2.00.854 | +22.90.119 |
| Half fence | +3.90.694 | +10.40.360 | 66.7%42 | +13.40.172 | +3.30.756 | +11.10.269 | +5.60.610 | +9.90.365 | +12.40.210 | +33.30.017 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.50.308 | -3.00.780 | -13.40.172 | 53.2%62 | -10.20.306 | -2.30.802 | -7.90.448 | -3.50.733 | -1.00.911 | +19.90.137 |
| Low fence | +0.70.947 | +7.20.535 | -3.30.756 | +10.20.306 | 63.4%41 | +7.80.441 | +2.30.835 | +6.70.549 | +9.20.360 | +30.10.033 |
| Single wall | -7.20.454 | -0.70.950 | -11.10.269 | +2.30.802 | -7.80.441 | 55.6%54 | -5.50.601 | -1.20.910 | +1.30.888 | +22.20.102 |
| Fence and open | -1.60.877 | +4.90.684 | -5.60.610 | +7.90.448 | -2.30.835 | +5.50.601 | 61.1%36 | +4.30.705 | +6.90.512 | +27.80.054 |
| Open | -6.00.571 | +0.50.966 | -9.90.365 | +3.50.733 | -6.70.549 | +1.20.910 | -4.30.705 | 56.8%37 | +2.50.809 | +23.40.103 |
| Rectangle | -8.50.367 | -2.00.854 | -12.40.210 | +1.00.911 | -9.20.360 | -1.30.888 | -6.90.512 | -2.50.809 | 54.2%59 | +20.90.120 |
| Octagon | -29.40.031 | -22.90.119 | -33.30.017 | -19.90.137 | -30.10.033 | -22.20.102 | -27.80.054 | -23.40.103 | -20.90.120 | 33.3%18 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted15
Win rate60.0%
Widest swing40.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 100.0% | +40.0 | 0.398 | 1 · | |
| Full fence | 100.0% | +40.0 | 0.398 | 1 · | |
| Low fence | 100.0% | +40.0 | 0.398 | 1 · | |
| Open | 100.0% | +40.0 | 0.215 | 2 · | |
| Single wall | 100.0% | +40.0 | 0.398 | 1 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 33.3% | -26.7 | 0.085 | 6 · | |
| Fence and open | 33.3% | -26.7 | 0.292 | 3 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.67 on 6 df, p 0.353
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 100.0%1 | +66.70.212 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | +66.70.248 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable full fence | -66.70.212 | 33.3%6 | -66.70.212 | -66.70.212 | -66.70.212 | +0.01.000 | -66.70.102 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.01.000 | +66.70.212 | 100.0%1 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | +66.70.248 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | -0.01.000 | +66.70.212 | -0.01.000 | 100.0%1 | +0.01.000 | +66.70.248 | +0.01.000 |
| Single wall | -0.01.000 | +66.70.212 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | 100.0%1 | +66.70.248 | +0.01.000 |
| Fence and open | -66.70.248 | -0.01.000 | -66.70.248 | -66.70.248 | -66.70.248 | 33.3%3 | -66.70.136 |
| Open | -0.01.000 | +66.70.102 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | +66.70.136 | 100.0%2 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.