Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Pai
Matches counted379
Win rate48.8%
Widest swing-20.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 68.8% | +19.9 | 0.018 | 32 · | |
| Single wall | 55.3% | +6.5 | 0.340 | 47 · | |
| Full fence | 48.5% | -0.3 | 0.969 | 33 · | |
| Half fence | 48.3% | -0.5 | 0.952 | 29 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.7% | -2.1 | 0.806 | 30 · | |
| Octagon | 46.7% | -2.1 | 0.759 | 45 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.8% | -3.0 | 0.610 | 59 · | |
| Low fence | 45.2% | -3.6 | 0.623 | 42 · | |
| Open | 44.0% | -4.8 | 0.618 | 25 · | |
| Fence and open | 28.6% | -20.2 | 0.056 | 21 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.13 on 9 df, p 0.340
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.5%33 | +2.70.802 | +0.20.987 | +1.80.885 | +3.20.780 | -6.80.547 | +19.90.147 | +4.50.735 | -20.30.097 | +1.80.874 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.70.802 | 45.8%59 | -2.50.824 | -0.90.936 | +0.50.958 | -9.60.328 | +17.20.169 | +1.80.882 | -23.00.036 | -0.90.927 |
| Half fence | -0.20.987 | +2.50.824 | 48.3%29 | +1.60.902 | +3.00.801 | -7.00.550 | +19.70.160 | +4.30.753 | -20.50.104 | +1.60.892 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.80.885 | +0.90.936 | -1.60.902 | 46.7%30 | +1.40.905 | -8.70.459 | +18.10.193 | +2.70.843 | -22.10.078 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | -3.20.780 | -0.50.958 | -3.00.801 | -1.40.905 | 45.2%42 | -10.10.342 | +16.70.202 | +1.20.921 | -23.50.044 | -1.40.894 |
| Single wall | +6.80.547 | +9.60.328 | +7.00.550 | +8.70.459 | +10.10.342 | 55.3%47 | +26.80.041 | +11.30.360 | -13.40.230 | +8.70.407 |
| Fence and open | -19.90.147 | -17.20.169 | -19.70.160 | -18.10.193 | -16.70.202 | -26.80.041 | 28.6%21 | -15.40.280 | -40.20.004 | -18.10.164 |
| Open | -4.50.735 | -1.80.882 | -4.30.753 | -2.70.843 | -1.20.921 | -11.30.360 | +15.40.280 | 44.0%25 | -24.80.060 | -2.70.830 |
| Rectangle | +20.30.097 | +23.00.036 | +20.50.104 | +22.10.078 | +23.50.044 | +13.40.230 | +40.20.004 | +24.80.060 | 68.8%32 | +22.10.054 |
| Octagon | -1.80.874 | +0.90.927 | -1.60.892 | -0.01.000 | +1.40.894 | -8.70.407 | +18.10.164 | +2.70.830 | -22.10.054 | 46.7%45 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted360
Win rate49.2%
Widest swing19.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 68.8% | +19.6 | 0.020 | 32 · | |
| Single wall | 59.1% | +9.9 | 0.160 | 44 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.3% | -0.9 | 0.920 | 29 · | |
| Full fence | 48.3% | -0.9 | 0.920 | 29 · | |
| Octagon | 46.7% | -2.5 | 0.720 | 45 · | |
| Half fence | 46.4% | -2.7 | 0.763 | 28 · | |
| Low fence | 45.2% | -3.9 | 0.588 | 42 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.8% | -4.3 | 0.470 | 58 · | |
| Open | 40.0% | -9.2 | 0.399 | 20 · | |
| Fence and open | 30.0% | -19.2 | 0.078 | 20 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.14 on 9 df, p 0.266
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.3%29 | +3.50.761 | +1.90.889 | +0.01.000 | +3.00.801 | -10.80.364 | +18.30.201 | +8.30.567 | -20.50.104 | +1.60.892 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.50.761 | 44.8%58 | -1.60.889 | -3.50.761 | -0.40.968 | -14.30.154 | +14.80.245 | +4.80.707 | -23.90.029 | -1.80.853 |
| Half fence | -1.90.889 | +1.60.889 | 46.4%28 | -1.90.889 | +1.20.922 | -12.70.293 | +16.40.251 | +6.40.658 | -22.30.080 | -0.20.984 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.01.000 | +3.50.761 | +1.90.889 | 48.3%29 | +3.00.801 | -10.80.364 | +18.30.201 | +8.30.567 | -20.50.104 | +1.60.892 |
| Low fence | -3.00.801 | +0.40.968 | -1.20.922 | -3.00.801 | 45.2%42 | -13.80.199 | +15.20.253 | +5.20.697 | -23.50.044 | -1.40.894 |
| Single wall | +10.80.364 | +14.30.154 | +12.70.293 | +10.80.364 | +13.80.199 | 59.1%44 | +29.10.031 | +19.10.156 | -9.70.389 | +12.40.240 |
| Fence and open | -18.30.201 | -14.80.245 | -16.40.251 | -18.30.201 | -15.20.253 | -29.10.031 | 30.0%20 | -10.00.507 | -38.80.006 | -16.70.208 |
| Open | -8.30.567 | -4.80.707 | -6.40.658 | -8.30.567 | -5.20.697 | -19.10.156 | +10.00.507 | 40.0%20 | -28.80.041 | -6.70.618 |
| Rectangle | +20.50.104 | +23.90.029 | +22.30.080 | +20.50.104 | +23.50.044 | +9.70.389 | +38.80.006 | +28.80.041 | 68.8%32 | +22.10.054 |
| Octagon | -1.60.892 | +1.80.853 | +0.20.984 | -1.60.892 | +1.40.894 | -12.40.240 | +16.70.208 | +6.70.618 | -22.10.054 | 46.7%45 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted19
Win rate42.1%
Widest swing57.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 100.0% | +57.9 | 0.228 | 1 · | |
| Half fence | 100.0% | +57.9 | 0.228 | 1 · | |
| Open | 60.0% | +17.9 | 0.345 | 5 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +7.9 | 0.719 | 4 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 0.0% | -42.1 | 0.381 | 1 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -42.1 | 0.381 | 1 · | |
| Single wall | 0.0% | -42.1 | 0.107 | 3 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.06 on 6 df, p 0.315
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Wall | Mixed | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%4 | -50.00.361 | -50.00.361 | +50.00.361 | +50.00.147 | +50.00.361 | -10.00.764 |
| Breakable full fence | +50.00.361 | 100.0%1 | +0.01.000 | +100.00.157 | +100.00.046 | +100.00.157 | +40.00.439 |
| Half fence | +50.00.361 | -0.01.000 | 100.0%1 | +100.00.157 | +100.00.046 | +100.00.157 | +40.00.439 |
| Breakable half fence | -50.00.361 | -100.00.157 | -100.00.157 | 0.0%1 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | -60.00.273 |
| Single wall | -50.00.147 | -100.00.046 | -100.00.046 | -0.01.000 | 0.0%3 | +0.01.000 | -60.00.090 |
| Fence and open | -50.00.361 | -100.00.157 | -100.00.157 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | 0.0%1 | -60.00.273 |
| Open | +10.00.764 | -40.00.439 | -40.00.439 | +60.00.273 | +60.00.090 | +60.00.273 | 60.0%5 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.