Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Lion
Matches counted393
Win rate49.6%
Widest swing15.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 65.0% | +15.4 | 0.158 | 20 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.9% | +6.3 | 0.445 | 34 · | |
| Low fence | 55.6% | +5.9 | 0.397 | 45 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.7% | +4.1 | 0.518 | 54 · | |
| Full fence | 51.7% | +2.1 | 0.814 | 29 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +0.4 | 0.959 | 40 · | |
| Half fence | 48.9% | -0.7 | 0.921 | 47 · | |
| Open | 47.7% | -1.9 | 0.790 | 44 · | |
| Octagon | 44.4% | -5.2 | 0.413 | 54 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 41.7% | -8.0 | 0.576 | 12 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.06 on 9 df, p 0.908
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.7%29 | -4.20.741 | +2.80.813 | +10.10.558 | -3.80.747 | +1.70.888 | -13.30.356 | +4.00.738 | -2.00.863 | +7.30.526 |
| Breakable full fence | +4.20.741 | 55.9%34 | +6.90.537 | +14.20.397 | +0.30.977 | +5.90.613 | -9.10.510 | +8.20.475 | +2.20.842 | +11.40.296 |
| Half fence | -2.80.813 | -6.90.537 | 48.9%47 | +7.30.653 | -6.60.525 | -1.10.921 | -16.10.228 | +1.20.908 | -4.80.633 | +4.50.652 |
| Breakable half fence | -10.10.558 | -14.20.397 | -7.30.653 | 41.7%12 | -13.90.392 | -8.30.612 | -23.30.198 | -6.10.709 | -12.00.450 | -2.80.861 |
| Low fence | +3.80.747 | -0.30.977 | +6.60.525 | +13.90.392 | 55.6%45 | +5.60.609 | -9.40.476 | +7.80.460 | +1.90.854 | +11.10.271 |
| Single wall | -1.70.888 | -5.90.613 | +1.10.921 | +8.30.612 | -5.60.609 | 50.0%40 | -15.00.271 | +2.30.835 | -3.70.722 | +5.60.594 |
| Fence and open | +13.30.356 | +9.10.510 | +16.10.228 | +23.30.198 | +9.40.476 | +15.00.271 | 65.0%20 | +17.30.199 | +11.30.384 | +20.60.116 |
| Open | -4.00.738 | -8.20.475 | -1.20.908 | +6.10.709 | -7.80.460 | -2.30.835 | -17.30.199 | 47.7%44 | -6.00.556 | +3.30.746 |
| Rectangle | +2.00.863 | -2.20.842 | +4.80.633 | +12.00.450 | -1.90.854 | +3.70.722 | -11.30.384 | +6.00.556 | 53.7%54 | +9.30.336 |
| Octagon | -7.30.526 | -11.40.296 | -4.50.652 | +2.80.861 | -11.10.271 | -5.60.594 | -20.60.116 | -3.30.746 | -9.30.336 | 44.4%54 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted353
Win rate49.6%
Widest swing15.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 65.0% | +15.4 | 0.155 | 20 · | |
| Low fence | 56.1% | +6.5 | 0.374 | 41 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 55.9% | +6.3 | 0.439 | 34 · | |
| Rectangle | 55.8% | +6.2 | 0.333 | 52 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +0.4 | 0.964 | 26 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +0.4 | 0.953 | 42 · | |
| Single wall | 47.4% | -2.2 | 0.773 | 38 · | |
| Half fence | 45.5% | -4.1 | 0.619 | 33 · | |
| Octagon | 41.9% | -7.7 | 0.280 | 43 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 41.7% | -7.9 | 0.577 | 12 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.28 on 9 df, p 0.809
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%26 | -5.90.651 | +4.50.728 | +8.30.632 | -6.10.626 | +2.60.836 | -15.00.309 | +0.01.000 | -5.80.630 | +8.10.510 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.90.651 | 55.9%34 | +10.40.393 | +14.20.397 | -0.20.985 | +8.50.471 | -9.10.510 | +5.90.610 | +0.10.992 | +14.00.221 |
| Half fence | -4.50.728 | -10.40.393 | 45.5%33 | +3.80.821 | -10.70.363 | -1.90.872 | -19.60.167 | -4.50.696 | -10.30.354 | +3.60.754 |
| Breakable half fence | -8.30.632 | -14.20.397 | -3.80.821 | 41.7%12 | -14.40.378 | -5.70.730 | -23.30.198 | -8.30.610 | -14.10.378 | -0.20.990 |
| Low fence | +6.10.626 | +0.20.985 | +10.70.363 | +14.40.378 | 56.1%41 | +8.70.438 | -8.90.507 | +6.10.578 | +0.30.975 | +14.20.192 |
| Single wall | -2.60.836 | -8.50.471 | +1.90.872 | +5.70.730 | -8.70.438 | 47.4%38 | -17.60.201 | -2.60.814 | -8.40.431 | +5.50.619 |
| Fence and open | +15.00.309 | +9.10.510 | +19.60.167 | +23.30.198 | +8.90.507 | +17.60.201 | 65.0%20 | +15.00.267 | +9.20.477 | +23.10.087 |
| Open | -0.01.000 | -5.90.610 | +4.50.696 | +8.30.610 | -6.10.578 | +2.60.814 | -15.00.267 | 50.0%42 | -5.80.577 | +8.10.451 |
| Rectangle | +5.80.630 | -0.10.992 | +10.30.354 | +14.10.378 | -0.30.975 | +8.40.431 | -9.20.477 | +5.80.577 | 55.8%52 | +13.90.177 |
| Octagon | -8.10.510 | -14.00.221 | -3.60.754 | +0.20.990 | -14.20.192 | -5.50.619 | -23.10.087 | -8.10.451 | -13.90.177 | 41.9%43 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted40
Win rate50.0%
Widest swing50.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 100.0% | +50.0 | 0.147 | 2 · | |
| Full fence | 66.7% | +16.7 | 0.548 | 3 · | |
| Half fence | 57.1% | +7.1 | 0.507 | 14 · | |
| Octagon | 54.5% | +4.5 | 0.723 | 11 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +0.0 | 1.000 | 4 · | |
| Open | 0.0% | -50.0 | 0.147 | 2 · | |
| Rectangle | 0.0% | -50.0 | 0.147 | 2 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.62 on 6 df, p 0.357
| Stage | Full | Half | Low | Wall | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 66.7%3 | +9.50.761 | +16.70.659 | -33.30.361 | +66.70.136 | +66.70.136 | +12.10.707 |
| Half fence | -9.50.761 | 57.1%14 | +7.10.800 | -42.90.242 | +57.10.131 | +57.10.131 | +2.60.897 |
| Low fence | -16.70.659 | -7.10.800 | 50.0%4 | -50.00.221 | +50.00.221 | +50.00.221 | -4.50.876 |
| Single wall | +33.30.361 | +42.90.242 | +50.00.221 | 100.0%2 | +100.00.046 | +100.00.046 | +45.50.224 |
| Open | -66.70.136 | -57.10.131 | -50.00.221 | -100.00.046 | 0.0%2 | +0.01.000 | -54.50.155 |
| Rectangle | -66.70.136 | -57.10.131 | -50.00.221 | -100.00.046 | -0.01.000 | 0.0%2 | -54.50.155 |
| Octagon | -12.10.707 | -2.60.897 | +4.50.876 | -45.50.224 | +54.50.155 | +54.50.155 | 54.5%11 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.