Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Lau
Matches counted344
Win rate52.9%
Widest swing15.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 68.3% | +15.4 | 0.035 | 41 · | |
| Low fence | 62.5% | +9.6 | 0.254 | 32 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.9% | +0.9 | 0.901 | 39 · | |
| Open | 53.6% | +0.7 | 0.941 | 28 · | |
| Full fence | 51.4% | -1.5 | 0.853 | 35 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | -2.9 | 0.695 | 40 · | |
| Octagon | 47.8% | -5.1 | 0.613 | 23 · | |
| Single wall | 47.6% | -5.3 | 0.616 | 21 · | |
| Fence and open | 44.4% | -8.5 | 0.460 | 18 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.2% | -8.7 | 0.221 | 43 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.56 on 9 df, p 0.579
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.4%35 | +7.20.524 | +1.40.902 | -2.40.835 | -11.10.361 | +3.80.783 | +7.00.630 | -2.10.866 | -16.90.134 | +3.60.788 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.20.524 | 44.2%43 | -5.80.596 | -9.70.382 | -18.30.116 | -3.40.796 | -0.20.985 | -9.40.439 | -24.10.026 | -3.60.777 |
| Half fence | -1.40.902 | +5.80.596 | 50.0%40 | -3.90.732 | -12.50.289 | +2.40.860 | +5.60.695 | -3.60.772 | -18.30.094 | +2.20.868 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.40.835 | +9.70.382 | +3.90.732 | 53.9%39 | -8.70.463 | +6.20.645 | +9.40.509 | +0.30.982 | -14.40.185 | +6.00.647 |
| Low fence | +11.10.361 | +18.30.116 | +12.50.289 | +8.70.463 | 62.5%32 | +14.90.285 | +18.10.217 | +8.90.484 | -5.80.605 | +14.70.279 |
| Single wall | -3.80.783 | +3.40.796 | -2.40.860 | -6.20.645 | -14.90.285 | 47.6%21 | +3.20.843 | -6.00.680 | -20.70.114 | -0.20.989 |
| Fence and open | -7.00.630 | +0.20.985 | -5.60.695 | -9.40.509 | -18.10.217 | -3.20.843 | 44.4%18 | -9.10.546 | -23.90.084 | -3.40.829 |
| Open | +2.10.866 | +9.40.439 | +3.60.772 | -0.30.982 | -8.90.484 | +6.00.680 | +9.10.546 | 53.6%28 | -14.70.215 | +5.70.683 |
| Rectangle | +16.90.134 | +24.10.026 | +18.30.094 | +14.40.185 | +5.80.605 | +20.70.114 | +23.90.084 | +14.70.215 | 68.3%41 | +20.50.107 |
| Octagon | -3.60.788 | +3.60.777 | -2.20.868 | -6.00.647 | -14.70.279 | +0.20.989 | +3.40.829 | -5.70.683 | -20.50.107 | 47.8%23 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted298
Win rate51.3%
Widest swing10.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 62.1% | +10.7 | 0.224 | 29 · | |
| Low fence | 60.7% | +9.4 | 0.297 | 28 · | |
| Open | 56.0% | +4.7 | 0.626 | 25 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.6% | +1.3 | 0.865 | 38 · | |
| Full fence | 48.3% | -3.1 | 0.728 | 29 · | |
| Single wall | 47.4% | -4.0 | 0.720 | 19 · | |
| Fence and open | 47.1% | -4.3 | 0.716 | 17 · | |
| Half fence | 47.1% | -4.3 | 0.595 | 34 · | |
| Octagon | 45.5% | -5.9 | 0.566 | 22 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.7% | -6.6 | 0.383 | 38 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.13 on 9 df, p 0.902
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.3%29 | +3.50.773 | +1.20.923 | -4.30.724 | -12.40.346 | +0.90.951 | +1.20.936 | -7.70.571 | -13.80.291 | +2.80.842 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.50.773 | 44.7%38 | -2.30.844 | -7.90.491 | -16.00.199 | -2.60.851 | -2.30.873 | -11.30.382 | -17.30.159 | -0.70.957 |
| Half fence | -1.20.923 | +2.30.844 | 47.1%34 | -5.60.637 | -13.70.284 | -0.30.983 | +0.01.000 | -8.90.497 | -15.00.233 | +1.60.906 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.30.724 | +7.90.491 | +5.60.637 | 52.6%38 | -8.10.513 | +5.30.708 | +5.60.702 | -3.40.793 | -9.40.440 | +7.20.592 |
| Low fence | +12.40.346 | +16.00.199 | +13.70.284 | +8.10.513 | 60.7%28 | +13.30.366 | +13.70.371 | +4.70.728 | -1.40.916 | +15.30.283 |
| Single wall | -0.90.951 | +2.60.851 | +0.30.983 | -5.30.708 | -13.30.366 | 47.4%19 | +0.30.985 | -8.60.570 | -14.70.315 | +1.90.902 |
| Fence and open | -1.20.936 | +2.30.873 | -0.01.000 | -5.60.702 | -13.70.371 | -0.30.985 | 47.1%17 | -8.90.569 | -15.00.322 | +1.60.921 |
| Open | +7.70.571 | +11.30.382 | +8.90.497 | +3.40.793 | -4.70.728 | +8.60.570 | +8.90.569 | 56.0%25 | -6.10.651 | +10.60.471 |
| Rectangle | +13.80.291 | +17.30.159 | +15.00.233 | +9.40.440 | +1.40.916 | +14.70.315 | +15.00.322 | +6.10.651 | 62.1%29 | +16.60.238 |
| Octagon | -2.80.842 | +0.70.957 | -1.60.906 | -7.20.592 | -15.30.283 | -1.90.902 | -1.60.921 | -10.60.471 | -16.60.238 | 45.5%22 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted46
Win rate63.0%
Widest swing-63.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 100.0% | +37.0 | 0.439 | 1 · | |
| Octagon | 100.0% | +37.0 | 0.439 | 1 · | |
| Rectangle | 83.3% | +20.3 | 0.090 | 12 · | |
| Low fence | 75.0% | +12.0 | 0.604 | 4 · | |
| Full fence | 66.7% | +3.6 | 0.844 | 6 · | |
| Half fence | 66.7% | +3.6 | 0.844 | 6 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | -13.0 | 0.696 | 2 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.0% | -23.0 | 0.258 | 5 · | |
| Open | 33.3% | -29.7 | 0.270 | 3 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -63.0 | 0.187 | 1 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.87 on 9 df, p 0.547
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 66.7%6 | +26.70.376 | +0.01.000 | -33.30.495 | -8.30.778 | +16.70.673 | +66.70.212 | +33.30.343 | -16.70.423 | -33.30.495 |
| Breakable full fence | -26.70.376 | 40.0%5 | -26.70.376 | -60.00.273 | -35.00.294 | -10.00.809 | +40.00.439 | +6.70.850 | -43.30.074 | -60.00.273 |
| Half fence | -0.01.000 | +26.70.376 | 66.7%6 | -33.30.495 | -8.30.778 | +16.70.673 | +66.70.212 | +33.30.343 | -16.70.423 | -33.30.495 |
| Breakable half fence | +33.30.495 | +60.00.273 | +33.30.495 | 100.0%1 | +25.00.576 | +50.00.386 | +100.00.157 | +66.70.248 | +16.70.657 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | +8.30.778 | +35.00.294 | +8.30.778 | -25.00.576 | 75.0%4 | +25.00.540 | +75.00.171 | +41.70.270 | -8.30.712 | -25.00.576 |
| Single wall | -16.70.673 | +10.00.809 | -16.70.673 | -50.00.386 | -25.00.540 | 50.0%2 | +50.00.386 | +16.70.709 | -33.30.287 | -50.00.386 |
| Fence and open | -66.70.212 | -40.00.439 | -66.70.212 | -100.00.157 | -75.00.171 | -50.00.386 | 0.0%1 | -33.30.505 | -83.30.057 | -100.00.157 |
| Open | -33.30.343 | -6.70.850 | -33.30.343 | -66.70.248 | -41.70.270 | -16.70.709 | +33.30.505 | 33.3%3 | -50.00.080 | -66.70.248 |
| Rectangle | +16.70.423 | +43.30.074 | +16.70.423 | -16.70.657 | +8.30.712 | +33.30.287 | +83.30.057 | +50.00.080 | 83.3%12 | -16.70.657 |
| Octagon | +33.30.495 | +60.00.273 | +33.30.495 | -0.01.000 | +25.00.576 | +50.00.386 | +100.00.157 | +66.70.248 | +16.70.657 | 100.0%1 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.