Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Kage
Matches counted477
Win rate44.2%
Widest swing-15.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 57.1% | +12.9 | 0.078 | 42 · | |
| Full fence | 54.0% | +9.7 | 0.095 | 63 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +5.8 | 0.456 | 38 · | |
| Octagon | 46.9% | +2.7 | 0.687 | 49 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.4% | +2.2 | 0.810 | 28 · | |
| Low fence | 42.9% | -1.4 | 0.851 | 42 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 40.0% | -4.2 | 0.573 | 40 · | |
| Open | 36.7% | -7.5 | 0.264 | 49 · | |
| Half fence | 36.5% | -7.7 | 0.236 | 52 · | |
| Single wall | 29.1% | -15.1 | 0.016 | 55 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 13.75 on 9 df, p 0.132
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.0%63 | +7.50.507 | +17.40.062 | +14.00.167 | +11.10.265 | +24.90.006 | +4.00.699 | +17.20.070 | -3.20.749 | +7.00.460 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.50.507 | 46.4%28 | +9.90.389 | +6.40.598 | +3.60.768 | +17.30.117 | -3.60.774 | +9.70.404 | -10.70.379 | -0.50.966 |
| Half fence | -17.40.062 | -9.90.389 | 36.5%52 | -3.50.735 | -6.30.533 | +7.50.412 | -13.50.202 | -0.20.984 | -20.60.046 | -10.40.289 |
| Breakable half fence | -14.00.167 | -6.40.598 | +3.50.735 | 40.0%40 | -2.90.793 | +10.90.267 | -10.00.375 | +3.30.752 | -17.10.121 | -6.90.512 |
| Low fence | -11.10.265 | -3.60.768 | +6.30.533 | +2.90.793 | 42.9%42 | +13.80.159 | -7.10.522 | +6.10.552 | -14.30.190 | -4.10.696 |
| Single wall | -24.90.006 | -17.30.117 | -7.50.412 | -10.90.267 | -13.80.159 | 29.1%55 | -20.90.041 | -7.60.407 | -28.10.005 | -17.90.061 |
| Fence and open | -4.00.699 | +3.60.774 | +13.50.202 | +10.00.375 | +7.10.522 | +20.90.041 | 50.0%38 | +13.30.214 | -7.10.522 | +3.10.777 |
| Open | -17.20.070 | -9.70.404 | +0.20.984 | -3.30.752 | -6.10.552 | +7.60.407 | -13.30.214 | 36.7%49 | -20.40.052 | -10.20.306 |
| Rectangle | +3.20.749 | +10.70.379 | +20.60.046 | +17.10.121 | +14.30.190 | +28.10.005 | +7.10.522 | +20.40.052 | 57.1%42 | +10.20.332 |
| Octagon | -7.00.460 | +0.50.966 | +10.40.289 | +6.90.512 | +4.10.696 | +17.90.061 | -3.10.777 | +10.20.306 | -10.20.332 | 46.9%49 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted444
Win rate43.9%
Widest swing15.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 59.5% | +15.5 | 0.047 | 37 · | |
| Full fence | 54.1% | +10.2 | 0.085 | 61 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +6.1 | 0.430 | 38 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.8% | +3.9 | 0.698 | 23 · | |
| Octagon | 46.5% | +2.6 | 0.718 | 43 · | |
| Low fence | 41.5% | -2.5 | 0.739 | 41 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 38.5% | -5.5 | 0.472 | 39 · | |
| Half fence | 36.2% | -7.8 | 0.258 | 47 · | |
| Open | 33.3% | -10.6 | 0.131 | 45 · | |
| Single wall | 29.4% | -14.5 | 0.026 | 51 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 15.13 on 9 df, p 0.087
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.1%61 | +6.30.608 | +17.90.064 | +15.60.127 | +12.60.211 | +24.70.009 | +4.10.691 | +20.80.034 | -5.40.604 | +7.60.446 |
| Breakable full fence | -6.30.608 | 47.8%23 | +11.70.350 | +9.40.470 | +6.40.622 | +18.40.125 | -2.20.869 | +14.50.245 | -11.60.379 | +1.30.919 |
| Half fence | -17.90.064 | -11.70.350 | 36.2%47 | -2.30.827 | -5.30.611 | +6.80.476 | -13.80.200 | +2.80.775 | -23.30.034 | -10.30.319 |
| Breakable half fence | -15.60.127 | -9.40.470 | +2.30.827 | 38.5%39 | -3.00.784 | +9.10.367 | -11.50.308 | +5.10.625 | -21.00.067 | -8.10.462 |
| Low fence | -12.60.211 | -6.40.622 | +5.30.611 | +3.00.784 | 41.5%41 | +12.10.228 | -8.50.447 | +8.10.436 | -18.00.112 | -5.00.641 |
| Single wall | -24.70.009 | -18.40.125 | -6.80.476 | -9.10.367 | -12.10.228 | 29.4%51 | -20.60.048 | -3.90.679 | -30.10.005 | -17.10.088 |
| Fence and open | -4.10.691 | +2.20.869 | +13.80.200 | +11.50.308 | +8.50.447 | +20.60.048 | 50.0%38 | +16.70.124 | -9.50.411 | +3.50.754 |
| Open | -20.80.034 | -14.50.245 | -2.80.775 | -5.10.625 | -8.10.436 | +3.90.679 | -16.70.124 | 33.3%45 | -26.10.018 | -13.20.207 |
| Rectangle | +5.40.604 | +11.60.379 | +23.30.034 | +21.00.067 | +18.00.112 | +30.10.005 | +9.50.411 | +26.10.018 | 59.5%37 | +12.90.248 |
| Octagon | -7.60.446 | -1.30.919 | +10.30.319 | +8.10.462 | +5.00.641 | +17.10.088 | -3.50.754 | +13.20.207 | -12.90.248 | 46.5%43 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted33
Win rate48.5%
Widest swing51.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 100.0% | +51.5 | 0.295 | 1 · | |
| Low fence | 100.0% | +51.5 | 0.295 | 1 · | |
| Open | 75.0% | +26.5 | 0.258 | 4 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +1.5 | 0.965 | 2 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +1.5 | 0.935 | 6 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 40.0% | -8.5 | 0.680 | 5 · | |
| Half fence | 40.0% | -8.5 | 0.680 | 5 · | |
| Rectangle | 40.0% | -8.5 | 0.680 | 5 · | |
| Single wall | 25.0% | -23.5 | 0.316 | 4 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.57 on 8 df, p 0.802
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%2 | +10.00.809 | +10.00.809 | -50.00.386 | -50.00.386 | +25.00.540 | -25.00.540 | +10.00.809 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable full fence | -10.00.809 | 40.0%5 | +0.01.000 | -60.00.273 | -60.00.273 | +15.00.635 | -35.00.294 | +0.01.000 | -10.00.740 |
| Half fence | -10.00.809 | -0.01.000 | 40.0%5 | -60.00.273 | -60.00.273 | +15.00.635 | -35.00.294 | +0.01.000 | -10.00.740 |
| Breakable half fence | +50.00.386 | +60.00.273 | +60.00.273 | 100.0%1 | +0.01.000 | +75.00.171 | +25.00.576 | +60.00.273 | +50.00.350 |
| Low fence | +50.00.386 | +60.00.273 | +60.00.273 | -0.01.000 | 100.0%1 | +75.00.171 | +25.00.576 | +60.00.273 | +50.00.350 |
| Single wall | -25.00.540 | -15.00.635 | -15.00.635 | -75.00.171 | -75.00.171 | 25.0%4 | -50.00.157 | -15.00.635 | -25.00.429 |
| Open | +25.00.540 | +35.00.294 | +35.00.294 | -25.00.576 | -25.00.576 | +50.00.157 | 75.0%4 | +35.00.294 | +25.00.429 |
| Rectangle | -10.00.809 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | -60.00.273 | -60.00.273 | +15.00.635 | -35.00.294 | 40.0%5 | -10.00.740 |
| Octagon | -0.01.000 | +10.00.740 | +10.00.740 | -50.00.350 | -50.00.350 | +25.00.429 | -25.00.429 | +10.00.740 | 50.0%6 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.