Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Jeffry
Matches counted456
Win rate47.4%
Widest swing-11.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | +2.6 | 0.727 | 40 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +2.6 | 0.720 | 42 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +2.6 | 0.757 | 32 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +2.6 | 0.742 | 36 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.1% | +1.8 | 0.777 | 57 · | |
| Low fence | 48.9% | +1.6 | 0.820 | 47 · | |
| Half fence | 48.2% | +0.8 | 0.892 | 56 · | |
| Single wall | 46.1% | -1.2 | 0.852 | 52 · | |
| Fence and open | 40.0% | -7.4 | 0.448 | 25 · | |
| Full fence | 35.6% | -11.8 | 0.095 | 45 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.62 on 9 df, p 0.934
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 35.6%45 | -13.60.170 | -12.70.201 | -14.40.179 | -13.40.194 | -10.60.290 | -4.40.712 | -14.40.205 | -14.40.191 | -14.40.173 |
| Breakable full fence | +13.60.170 | 49.1%57 | +0.90.923 | -0.90.932 | +0.20.985 | +3.00.757 | +9.10.446 | -0.90.937 | -0.90.934 | -0.90.931 |
| Half fence | +12.70.201 | -0.90.923 | 48.2%56 | -1.80.863 | -0.70.942 | +2.10.830 | +8.20.493 | -1.80.872 | -1.80.867 | -1.80.861 |
| Breakable half fence | +14.40.179 | +0.90.932 | +1.80.863 | 50.0%40 | +1.10.921 | +3.90.714 | +10.00.431 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 |
| Low fence | +13.40.194 | -0.20.985 | +0.70.942 | -1.10.921 | 48.9%47 | +2.80.782 | +8.90.469 | -1.10.926 | -1.10.923 | -1.10.920 |
| Single wall | +10.60.290 | -3.00.757 | -2.10.830 | -3.90.714 | -2.80.782 | 46.1%52 | +6.20.611 | -3.90.732 | -3.90.722 | -3.90.711 |
| Fence and open | +4.40.712 | -9.10.446 | -8.20.493 | -10.00.431 | -8.90.469 | -6.20.611 | 40.0%25 | -10.00.452 | -10.00.441 | -10.00.427 |
| Open | +14.40.205 | +0.90.937 | +1.80.872 | -0.01.000 | +1.10.926 | +3.90.732 | +10.00.452 | 50.0%32 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 |
| Rectangle | +14.40.191 | +0.90.934 | +1.80.867 | -0.01.000 | +1.10.923 | +3.90.722 | +10.00.441 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%36 | +0.01.000 |
| Octagon | +14.40.173 | +0.90.931 | +1.80.861 | -0.01.000 | +1.10.920 | +3.90.711 | +10.00.427 | -0.01.000 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%42 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted417
Win rate46.8%
Widest swing-14.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 59.0% | +12.2 | 0.108 | 39 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.1% | +5.3 | 0.432 | 48 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +3.2 | 0.657 | 42 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +3.2 | 0.702 | 32 · | |
| Half fence | 47.1% | +0.3 | 0.964 | 51 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 44.1% | -2.6 | 0.747 | 34 · | |
| Rectangle | 43.8% | -3.0 | 0.722 | 32 · | |
| Fence and open | 41.7% | -5.1 | 0.606 | 24 · | |
| Single wall | 41.7% | -5.1 | 0.452 | 48 · | |
| Full fence | 32.6% | -14.2 | 0.049 | 43 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.62 on 9 df, p 0.573
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 32.6%43 | -19.50.060 | -14.50.154 | -11.60.299 | -26.40.016 | -9.10.370 | -9.10.456 | -17.40.127 | -11.20.322 | -17.40.102 |
| Breakable full fence | +19.50.060 | 52.1%48 | +5.00.617 | +8.00.477 | -6.90.520 | +10.40.306 | +10.40.404 | +2.10.855 | +8.30.465 | +2.10.844 |
| Half fence | +14.50.154 | -5.00.617 | 47.1%51 | +2.90.790 | -11.90.262 | +5.40.589 | +5.40.662 | -2.90.794 | +3.30.768 | -2.90.778 |
| Breakable half fence | +11.60.299 | -8.00.477 | -2.90.790 | 44.1%34 | -14.80.205 | +2.50.825 | +2.50.853 | -5.90.632 | +0.40.976 | -5.90.610 |
| Low fence | +26.40.016 | +6.90.520 | +11.90.262 | +14.80.205 | 59.0%39 | +17.30.108 | +17.30.182 | +9.00.450 | +15.20.201 | +9.00.418 |
| Single wall | +9.10.370 | -10.40.306 | -5.40.589 | -2.50.825 | -17.30.108 | 41.7%48 | +0.01.000 | -8.30.463 | -2.10.853 | -8.30.428 |
| Fence and open | +9.10.456 | -10.40.404 | -5.40.662 | -2.50.853 | -17.30.182 | -0.01.000 | 41.7%24 | -8.30.536 | -2.10.876 | -8.30.514 |
| Open | +17.40.127 | -2.10.855 | +2.90.794 | +5.90.632 | -9.00.450 | +8.30.463 | +8.30.536 | 50.0%32 | +6.20.616 | +0.01.000 |
| Rectangle | +11.20.322 | -8.30.465 | -3.30.768 | -0.40.976 | -15.20.201 | +2.10.853 | +2.10.876 | -6.20.616 | 43.8%32 | -6.20.594 |
| Octagon | +17.40.102 | -2.10.844 | +2.90.778 | +5.90.610 | -9.00.418 | +8.30.428 | +8.30.514 | -0.01.000 | +6.20.594 | 50.0%42 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted39
Win rate53.9%
Widest swing-53.9 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 100.0% | +46.1 | 0.179 | 2 · | |
| Rectangle | 100.0% | +46.1 | 0.051 | 4 · | |
| Single wall | 100.0% | +46.1 | 0.051 | 4 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 83.3% | +29.5 | 0.115 | 6 · | |
| Half fence | 60.0% | +6.2 | 0.768 | 5 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 33.3% | -20.5 | 0.159 | 9 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -53.9 | 0.274 | 1 · | |
| Low fence | 0.0% | -53.9 | <0.001 | 8 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 22.77 on 7 df, p 0.002
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Rect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 100.0%2 | +66.70.087 | +40.00.290 | +16.70.537 | +100.00.002 | +0.01.000 | +100.00.083 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable full fence | -66.70.087 | 33.3%9 | -26.70.334 | -50.00.057 | +33.30.072 | -66.70.026 | +33.30.490 | -66.70.026 |
| Half fence | -40.00.290 | +26.70.334 | 60.0%5 | -23.30.387 | +60.00.012 | -40.00.151 | +60.00.273 | -40.00.151 |
| Breakable half fence | -16.70.537 | +50.00.057 | +23.30.387 | 83.3%6 | +83.30.001 | -16.70.389 | +83.30.088 | -16.70.389 |
| Low fence | -100.00.002 | -33.30.072 | -60.00.012 | -83.30.001 | 0.0%8 | -100.0<0.001 | +0.01.000 | -100.0<0.001 |
| Single wall | -0.01.000 | +66.70.026 | +40.00.151 | +16.70.389 | +100.0<0.001 | 100.0%4 | +100.00.025 | +0.01.000 |
| Fence and open | -100.00.083 | -33.30.490 | -60.00.273 | -83.30.088 | -0.01.000 | -100.00.025 | 0.0%1 | -100.00.025 |
| Rectangle | -0.01.000 | +66.70.026 | +40.00.151 | +16.70.389 | +100.0<0.001 | -0.01.000 | +100.00.025 | 100.0%4 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.