Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs Jacky
Matches counted738
Win rate50.1%
Widest swing-11.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 61.4% | +11.3 | 0.047 | 70 · | |
| Fence and open | 60.7% | +10.6 | 0.254 | 28 · | |
| Octagon | 52.2% | +2.0 | 0.676 | 92 | |
| Half fence | 51.8% | +1.7 | 0.746 | 83 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -0.1 | 0.978 | 88 | |
| Low fence | 48.6% | -1.5 | 0.787 | 74 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.4% | -1.8 | 0.774 | 62 · | |
| Rectangle | 47.8% | -2.4 | 0.684 | 67 · | |
| Open | 47.7% | -2.5 | 0.680 | 65 · | |
| Full fence | 38.2% | -11.9 | 0.039 | 68 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.37 on 9 df, p 0.404
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 38.2%68 | -11.80.143 | -13.60.096 | -10.20.243 | -10.40.211 | -23.20.006 | -22.50.044 | -9.40.271 | -9.50.264 | -13.90.080 |
| Breakable full fence | +11.80.143 | 50.0%88 | -1.80.813 | +1.60.846 | +1.40.864 | -11.40.151 | -10.70.323 | +2.30.778 | +2.20.782 | -2.20.771 |
| Half fence | +13.60.096 | +1.80.813 | 51.8%83 | +3.40.684 | +3.20.693 | -9.60.232 | -8.90.413 | +4.10.619 | +4.00.622 | -0.40.961 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.20.243 | -1.60.846 | -3.40.684 | 48.4%62 | -0.30.976 | -13.00.133 | -12.30.278 | +0.70.938 | +0.60.943 | -3.80.645 |
| Low fence | +10.40.211 | -1.40.864 | -3.20.693 | +0.30.976 | 48.6%74 | -12.80.123 | -12.10.276 | +1.00.910 | +0.90.916 | -3.50.652 |
| Single wall | +23.20.006 | +11.40.151 | +9.60.232 | +13.00.133 | +12.80.123 | 61.4%70 | +0.70.948 | +13.70.109 | +13.70.108 | +9.30.240 |
| Fence and open | +22.50.044 | +10.70.323 | +8.90.413 | +12.30.278 | +12.10.276 | -0.70.948 | 60.7%28 | +13.00.249 | +12.90.249 | +8.50.427 |
| Open | +9.40.271 | -2.30.778 | -4.10.619 | -0.70.938 | -1.00.910 | -13.70.109 | -13.00.249 | 47.7%65 | -0.10.994 | -4.50.580 |
| Rectangle | +9.50.264 | -2.20.782 | -4.00.622 | -0.60.943 | -0.90.916 | -13.70.108 | -12.90.249 | +0.10.994 | 47.8%67 | -4.40.583 |
| Octagon | +13.90.080 | +2.20.771 | +0.40.961 | +3.80.645 | +3.50.652 | -9.30.240 | -8.50.427 | +4.50.580 | +4.40.583 | 52.2%92 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted689
Win rate50.4%
Widest swing14.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 64.4% | +14.1 | 0.024 | 59 · | |
| Fence and open | 60.7% | +10.3 | 0.263 | 28 · | |
| Half fence | 52.5% | +2.1 | 0.684 | 80 | |
| Octagon | 52.3% | +2.0 | 0.697 | 86 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -0.4 | 0.942 | 88 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | -0.4 | 0.953 | 60 · | |
| Low fence | 48.6% | -1.8 | 0.752 | 70 · | |
| Open | 47.6% | -2.7 | 0.648 | 63 · | |
| Rectangle | 44.8% | -5.5 | 0.378 | 58 · | |
| Full fence | 37.1% | -13.3 | 0.029 | 62 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.50 on 9 df, p 0.243
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 37.1%62 | -12.90.118 | -15.40.068 | -12.90.151 | -11.50.184 | -27.30.003 | -23.60.037 | -10.50.234 | -7.70.389 | -15.20.067 |
| Breakable full fence | +12.90.118 | 50.0%88 | -2.50.746 | +0.01.000 | +1.40.858 | -14.40.085 | -10.70.323 | +2.40.773 | +5.20.540 | -2.30.759 |
| Half fence | +15.40.068 | +2.50.746 | 52.5%80 | +2.50.770 | +3.90.631 | -11.90.160 | -8.20.452 | +4.90.562 | +7.70.374 | +0.20.982 |
| Breakable half fence | +12.90.151 | -0.01.000 | -2.50.770 | 50.0%60 | +1.40.871 | -14.40.112 | -10.70.348 | +2.40.792 | +5.20.574 | -2.30.782 |
| Low fence | +11.50.184 | -1.40.858 | -3.90.631 | -1.40.871 | 48.6%70 | -15.80.071 | -12.10.277 | +0.90.913 | +3.70.673 | -3.80.641 |
| Single wall | +27.30.003 | +14.40.085 | +11.90.160 | +14.40.112 | +15.80.071 | 64.4%59 | +3.70.739 | +16.80.062 | +19.60.033 | +12.10.149 |
| Fence and open | +23.60.037 | +10.70.323 | +8.20.452 | +10.70.348 | +12.10.277 | -3.70.739 | 60.7%28 | +13.10.249 | +15.90.167 | +8.40.439 |
| Open | +10.50.234 | -2.40.773 | -4.90.562 | -2.40.792 | -0.90.913 | -16.80.062 | -13.10.249 | 47.6%63 | +2.80.758 | -4.70.570 |
| Rectangle | +7.70.389 | -5.20.540 | -7.70.374 | -5.20.574 | -3.70.673 | -19.60.033 | -15.90.167 | -2.80.758 | 44.8%58 | -7.50.377 |
| Octagon | +15.20.067 | +2.30.759 | -0.20.982 | +2.30.782 | +3.80.641 | -12.10.149 | -8.40.439 | +4.70.570 | +7.50.377 | 52.3%86 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted49
Win rate46.9%
Widest swing-46.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 66.7% | +19.7 | 0.189 | 9 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +3.1 | 0.873 | 6 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +3.1 | 0.898 | 4 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | +3.1 | 0.873 | 6 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +3.1 | 0.929 | 2 · | |
| Single wall | 45.5% | -1.5 | 0.911 | 11 · | |
| Half fence | 33.3% | -13.6 | 0.626 | 3 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 0.0% | -46.9 | 0.174 | 2 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.40 on 7 df, p 0.845
| Stage | Full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%6 | +16.70.635 | +50.00.206 | +0.01.000 | +4.50.858 | +0.01.000 | -16.70.519 | +0.01.000 |
| Half fence | -16.70.635 | 33.3%3 | +33.30.361 | -16.70.659 | -12.10.707 | -16.70.709 | -33.30.310 | -16.70.635 |
| Breakable half fence | -50.00.206 | -33.30.361 | 0.0%2 | -50.00.221 | -45.50.224 | -50.00.248 | -66.70.087 | -50.00.206 |
| Low fence | -0.01.000 | +16.70.659 | +50.00.221 | 50.0%4 | +4.50.876 | +0.01.000 | -16.70.569 | +0.01.000 |
| Single wall | -4.50.858 | +12.10.707 | +45.50.224 | -4.50.876 | 45.5%11 | -4.50.906 | -21.20.343 | -4.50.858 |
| Open | -0.01.000 | +16.70.709 | +50.00.248 | -0.01.000 | +4.50.906 | 50.0%2 | -16.70.658 | +0.01.000 |
| Rectangle | +16.70.519 | +33.30.310 | +66.70.087 | +16.70.569 | +21.20.343 | +16.70.658 | 66.7%9 | +16.70.519 |
| Octagon | -0.01.000 | +16.70.635 | +50.00.206 | -0.01.000 | +4.50.858 | -0.01.000 | -16.70.519 | 50.0%6 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.