Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Dural vs El Blaze
Matches counted309
Win rate49.8%
Widest swing11.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 61.1% | +11.3 | 0.324 | 18 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 60.7% | +10.9 | 0.227 | 28 · | |
| Single wall | 59.5% | +9.7 | 0.177 | 42 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +0.2 | 0.985 | 30 · | |
| Full fence | 47.1% | -2.8 | 0.731 | 34 · | |
| Half fence | 46.9% | -3.0 | 0.723 | 32 · | |
| Rectangle | 44.4% | -5.4 | 0.491 | 36 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 44.1% | -5.7 | 0.479 | 34 · | |
| Fence and open | 42.9% | -7.0 | 0.593 | 14 · | |
| Open | 42.4% | -7.4 | 0.367 | 33 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.90 on 9 df, p 0.750
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.1%34 | -13.70.284 | +0.20.988 | +2.90.808 | -2.90.814 | -12.50.278 | +4.20.791 | +4.60.703 | +2.60.826 | -14.10.335 |
| Breakable full fence | +13.70.284 | 60.7%28 | +13.80.284 | +16.60.193 | +10.70.412 | +1.20.921 | +17.90.273 | +18.30.154 | +16.30.196 | -0.40.979 |
| Half fence | -0.20.988 | -13.80.284 | 46.9%32 | +2.80.822 | -3.10.806 | -12.60.279 | +4.00.801 | +4.50.718 | +2.40.841 | -14.20.333 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.90.808 | -16.60.193 | -2.80.822 | 44.1%34 | -5.90.638 | -15.40.181 | +1.30.936 | +1.70.889 | -0.30.978 | -17.00.244 |
| Low fence | +2.90.814 | -10.70.412 | +3.10.806 | +5.90.638 | 50.0%30 | -9.50.423 | +7.10.659 | +7.60.547 | +5.60.652 | -11.10.454 |
| Single wall | +12.50.278 | -1.20.921 | +12.60.279 | +15.40.181 | +9.50.423 | 59.5%42 | +16.70.277 | +17.10.141 | +15.10.184 | -1.60.908 |
| Fence and open | -4.20.791 | -17.90.273 | -4.00.801 | -1.30.936 | -7.10.659 | -16.70.277 | 42.9%14 | +0.40.978 | -1.60.919 | -18.20.305 |
| Open | -4.60.703 | -18.30.154 | -4.50.718 | -1.70.889 | -7.60.547 | -17.10.141 | -0.40.978 | 42.4%33 | -2.00.866 | -18.70.202 |
| Rectangle | -2.60.826 | -16.30.196 | -2.40.841 | +0.30.978 | -5.60.652 | -15.10.184 | +1.60.919 | +2.00.866 | 44.4%36 | -16.70.248 |
| Octagon | +14.10.335 | +0.40.979 | +14.20.333 | +17.00.244 | +11.10.454 | +1.60.908 | +18.20.305 | +18.70.202 | +16.70.248 | 61.1%18 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted271
Win rate49.8%
Widest swing10.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 60.5% | +10.7 | 0.154 | 38 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 60.0% | +10.2 | 0.285 | 25 · | |
| Octagon | 60.0% | +10.2 | 0.417 | 15 · | |
| Full fence | 51.7% | +1.9 | 0.828 | 29 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +0.2 | 0.983 | 30 · | |
| Low fence | 48.1% | -1.7 | 0.855 | 27 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.9% | -2.9 | 0.723 | 32 · | |
| Fence and open | 42.9% | -7.0 | 0.593 | 14 · | |
| Open | 40.0% | -9.8 | 0.303 | 25 · | |
| Rectangle | 40.0% | -9.8 | 0.254 | 30 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.96 on 9 df, p 0.744
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.7%29 | -8.30.542 | +1.70.895 | +4.80.705 | +3.60.789 | -8.80.471 | +8.90.586 | +11.70.389 | +11.70.366 | -8.30.601 |
| Breakable full fence | +8.30.542 | 60.0%25 | +10.00.458 | +13.10.325 | +11.80.392 | -0.50.967 | +17.10.303 | +20.00.157 | +20.00.140 | +0.01.000 |
| Half fence | -1.70.895 | -10.00.458 | 50.0%30 | +3.10.806 | +1.90.889 | -10.50.385 | +7.10.659 | +10.00.458 | +10.00.436 | -10.00.526 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.80.705 | -13.10.325 | -3.10.806 | 46.9%32 | -1.30.922 | -13.70.253 | +4.00.801 | +6.90.604 | +6.90.585 | -13.10.401 |
| Low fence | -3.60.789 | -11.80.392 | -1.90.889 | +1.30.922 | 48.1%27 | -12.40.323 | +5.30.747 | +8.20.554 | +8.20.536 | -11.80.461 |
| Single wall | +8.80.471 | +0.50.967 | +10.50.385 | +13.70.253 | +12.40.323 | 60.5%38 | +17.70.255 | +20.50.110 | +20.50.093 | +0.50.972 |
| Fence and open | -8.90.586 | -17.10.303 | -7.10.659 | -4.00.801 | -5.30.747 | -17.70.255 | 42.9%14 | +2.90.862 | +2.90.858 | -17.10.356 |
| Open | -11.70.389 | -20.00.157 | -10.00.458 | -6.90.604 | -8.20.554 | -20.50.110 | -2.90.862 | 40.0%25 | +0.01.000 | -20.00.220 |
| Rectangle | -11.70.366 | -20.00.140 | -10.00.436 | -6.90.585 | -8.20.536 | -20.50.093 | -2.90.858 | -0.01.000 | 40.0%30 | -20.00.205 |
| Octagon | +8.30.601 | -0.01.000 | +10.00.526 | +13.10.401 | +11.80.461 | -0.50.972 | +17.10.356 | +20.00.220 | +20.00.205 | 60.0%15 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted38
Win rate50.0%
Widest swing-50.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Dural's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 66.7% | +16.7 | 0.547 | 3 · | |
| Low fence | 66.7% | +16.7 | 0.547 | 3 · | |
| Octagon | 66.7% | +16.7 | 0.547 | 3 · | |
| Rectangle | 66.7% | +16.7 | 0.374 | 6 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +0.0 | 1.000 | 8 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +0.0 | 1.000 | 4 · | |
| Full fence | 20.0% | -30.0 | 0.150 | 5 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 0.0% | -50.0 | 0.146 | 2 · | |
| Half fence | 0.0% | -50.0 | 0.146 | 2 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Dural's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.38 on 8 df, p 0.496
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 20.0%5 | -46.70.187 | +20.00.495 | +20.00.495 | -46.70.187 | -30.00.343 | -30.00.279 | -46.70.122 | -46.70.187 |
| Breakable full fence | +46.70.187 | 66.7%3 | +66.70.136 | +66.70.136 | +0.01.000 | +16.70.659 | +16.70.621 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 |
| Half fence | -20.00.495 | -66.70.136 | 0.0%2 | +0.01.000 | -66.70.136 | -50.00.221 | -50.00.197 | -66.70.102 | -66.70.136 |
| Breakable half fence | -20.00.495 | -66.70.136 | -0.01.000 | 0.0%2 | -66.70.136 | -50.00.221 | -50.00.197 | -66.70.102 | -66.70.136 |
| Low fence | +46.70.187 | -0.01.000 | +66.70.136 | +66.70.136 | 66.7%3 | +16.70.659 | +16.70.621 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 |
| Single wall | +30.00.343 | -16.70.659 | +50.00.221 | +50.00.221 | -16.70.659 | 50.0%4 | +0.01.000 | -16.70.598 | -16.70.659 |
| Open | +30.00.279 | -16.70.621 | +50.00.197 | +50.00.197 | -16.70.621 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%8 | -16.70.533 | -16.70.621 |
| Rectangle | +46.70.122 | -0.01.000 | +66.70.102 | +66.70.102 | -0.01.000 | +16.70.598 | +16.70.533 | 66.7%6 | +0.01.000 |
| Octagon | +46.70.187 | -0.01.000 | +66.70.136 | +66.70.136 | -0.01.000 | +16.70.659 | +16.70.621 | -0.01.000 | 66.7%3 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.