Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Brad vs Taka
Matches counted760
Win rate43.3%
Widest swing-17.1 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 53.6% | +10.3 | 0.069 | 69 · | |
| Open | 50.7% | +7.4 | 0.180 | 73 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +6.7 | 0.182 | 86 | |
| Half fence | 44.4% | +1.1 | 0.824 | 81 | |
| Single wall | 43.6% | +0.3 | 0.945 | 94 | |
| Breakable full fence | 42.9% | -0.4 | 0.936 | 77 · | |
| Octagon | 42.6% | -0.6 | 0.911 | 68 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 37.9% | -5.4 | 0.391 | 58 · | |
| Fence and open | 33.3% | -10.0 | 0.238 | 33 · | |
| Low fence | 26.1% | -17.1 | 0.004 | 65 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 16.03 on 9 df, p 0.066
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%86 | +7.10.361 | +5.60.472 | +12.10.153 | +23.90.003 | +6.40.391 | +16.70.102 | -0.70.931 | -3.60.654 | +7.30.364 |
| Breakable full fence | -7.10.361 | 42.9%77 | -1.60.841 | +4.90.564 | +16.70.038 | -0.80.921 | +9.50.350 | -7.80.337 | -10.80.194 | +0.20.980 |
| Half fence | -5.60.472 | +1.60.841 | 44.4%81 | +6.50.443 | +18.30.022 | +0.80.912 | +11.10.274 | -6.20.439 | -9.20.262 | +1.80.826 |
| Breakable half fence | -12.10.153 | -4.90.564 | -6.50.443 | 37.9%58 | +11.80.161 | -5.70.489 | +4.60.661 | -12.80.145 | -15.70.077 | -4.70.591 |
| Low fence | -23.90.003 | -16.70.038 | -18.30.022 | -11.80.161 | 26.1%65 | -17.50.025 | -7.20.457 | -24.50.003 | -27.50.001 | -16.50.046 |
| Single wall | -6.40.391 | +0.80.921 | -0.80.912 | +5.70.489 | +17.50.025 | 43.6%94 | +10.30.301 | -7.10.364 | -10.00.206 | +1.00.902 |
| Fence and open | -16.70.102 | -9.50.350 | -11.10.274 | -4.60.661 | +7.20.457 | -10.30.301 | 33.3%33 | -17.40.097 | -20.30.055 | -9.30.369 |
| Open | +0.70.931 | +7.80.337 | +6.20.439 | +12.80.145 | +24.50.003 | +7.10.364 | +17.40.097 | 50.7%73 | -2.90.726 | +8.00.339 |
| Rectangle | +3.60.654 | +10.80.194 | +9.20.262 | +15.70.077 | +27.50.001 | +10.00.206 | +20.30.055 | +2.90.726 | 53.6%69 | +11.00.199 |
| Octagon | -7.30.364 | -0.20.980 | -1.80.826 | +4.70.591 | +16.50.046 | -1.00.902 | +9.30.369 | -8.00.339 | -11.00.199 | 42.6%68 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted641
Win rate45.4%
Widest swing-14.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 57.4% | +12.0 | 0.048 | 61 · | |
| Open | 50.8% | +5.4 | 0.359 | 65 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | +4.6 | 0.413 | 70 · | |
| Half fence | 46.6% | +1.2 | 0.830 | 73 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.5% | +0.1 | 0.992 | 66 · | |
| Octagon | 45.2% | -0.2 | 0.969 | 62 · | |
| Single wall | 44.3% | -1.1 | 0.835 | 79 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 40.8% | -4.6 | 0.503 | 49 · | |
| Fence and open | 35.5% | -9.9 | 0.256 | 31 · | |
| Low fence | 31.1% | -14.3 | 0.046 | 45 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.27 on 9 df, p 0.329
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%70 | +4.50.596 | +3.40.682 | +9.20.323 | +18.90.046 | +5.70.487 | +14.50.177 | -0.80.929 | -7.40.398 | +4.80.579 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.50.596 | 45.5%66 | -1.10.895 | +4.60.620 | +14.30.129 | +1.10.890 | +10.00.354 | -5.30.543 | -11.90.179 | +0.30.973 |
| Half fence | -3.40.682 | +1.10.895 | 46.6%73 | +5.80.530 | +15.50.097 | +2.30.779 | +11.10.296 | -4.20.623 | -10.80.213 | +1.40.869 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.20.323 | -4.60.620 | -5.80.530 | 40.8%49 | +9.70.328 | -3.50.698 | +5.30.633 | -9.90.292 | -16.60.084 | -4.30.646 |
| Low fence | -18.90.046 | -14.30.129 | -15.50.097 | -9.70.328 | 31.1%45 | -13.20.148 | -4.40.690 | -19.70.040 | -26.30.007 | -14.10.142 |
| Single wall | -5.70.487 | -1.10.890 | -2.30.779 | +3.50.698 | +13.20.148 | 44.3%79 | +8.80.399 | -6.50.439 | -13.10.125 | -0.90.919 |
| Fence and open | -14.50.177 | -10.00.354 | -11.10.296 | -5.30.633 | +4.40.690 | -8.80.399 | 35.5%31 | -15.30.160 | -21.90.047 | -9.70.373 |
| Open | +0.80.929 | +5.30.543 | +4.20.623 | +9.90.292 | +19.70.040 | +6.50.439 | +15.30.160 | 50.8%65 | -6.60.457 | +5.60.527 |
| Rectangle | +7.40.398 | +11.90.179 | +10.80.213 | +16.60.084 | +26.30.007 | +13.10.125 | +21.90.047 | +6.60.457 | 57.4%61 | +12.20.175 |
| Octagon | -4.80.579 | -0.30.973 | -1.40.869 | +4.30.646 | +14.10.142 | +0.90.919 | +9.70.373 | -5.60.527 | -12.20.175 | 45.2%62 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted119
Win rate31.9%
Widest swing-31.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0% | +18.1 | 0.096 | 16 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +18.1 | 0.256 | 8 · | |
| Single wall | 40.0% | +8.1 | 0.473 | 15 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 27.3% | -4.7 | 0.728 | 11 · | |
| Half fence | 25.0% | -6.9 | 0.663 | 8 · | |
| Rectangle | 25.0% | -6.9 | 0.663 | 8 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 22.2% | -9.7 | 0.516 | 9 · | |
| Octagon | 16.7% | -15.3 | 0.410 | 6 · | |
| Low fence | 15.0% | -16.9 | 0.075 | 20 · | |
| Fence and open | 0.0% | -31.9 | 0.329 | 2 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.26 on 9 df, p 0.413
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%16 | +22.70.238 | +25.00.242 | +27.80.174 | +35.00.023 | +10.00.576 | +50.00.180 | +0.01.000 | +25.00.242 | +33.30.157 |
| Breakable full fence | -22.70.238 | 27.3%11 | +2.30.912 | +5.00.795 | +12.30.408 | -12.70.500 | +27.30.400 | -22.70.311 | +2.30.912 | +10.60.622 |
| Half fence | -25.00.242 | -2.30.912 | 25.0%8 | +2.80.893 | +10.00.533 | -15.00.472 | +25.00.429 | -25.00.302 | +0.01.000 | +8.30.707 |
| Breakable half fence | -27.80.174 | -5.00.795 | -2.80.893 | 22.2%9 | +7.20.634 | -17.80.371 | +22.20.461 | -27.80.232 | -2.80.893 | +5.50.792 |
| Low fence | -35.00.023 | -12.30.408 | -10.00.533 | -7.20.634 | 15.0%20 | -25.00.094 | +15.00.556 | -35.00.053 | -10.00.533 | -1.70.921 |
| Single wall | -10.00.576 | +12.70.500 | +15.00.472 | +17.80.371 | +25.00.094 | 40.0%15 | +40.00.266 | -10.00.645 | +15.00.472 | +23.30.306 |
| Fence and open | -50.00.180 | -27.30.400 | -25.00.429 | -22.20.461 | -15.00.556 | -40.00.266 | 0.0%2 | -50.00.197 | -25.00.429 | -16.70.537 |
| Open | -0.01.000 | +22.70.311 | +25.00.302 | +27.80.232 | +35.00.053 | +10.00.645 | +50.00.197 | 50.0%8 | +25.00.302 | +33.30.198 |
| Rectangle | -25.00.242 | -2.30.912 | -0.01.000 | +2.80.893 | +10.00.533 | -15.00.472 | +25.00.429 | -25.00.302 | 25.0%8 | +8.30.707 |
| Octagon | -33.30.157 | -10.60.622 | -8.30.707 | -5.50.792 | +1.70.921 | -23.30.306 | +16.70.537 | -33.30.198 | -8.30.707 | 16.7%6 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.