Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Brad vs Kage
Matches counted2,890
Win rate48.0%
Widest swing-2.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 50.3% | +2.3 | 0.398 | 300 | |
| Rectangle | 49.2% | +1.2 | 0.684 | 260 | |
| Single wall | 48.5% | +0.4 | 0.887 | 258 | |
| Full fence | 48.1% | +0.1 | 0.969 | 295 | |
| Low fence | 47.9% | -0.1 | 0.976 | 267 | |
| Octagon | 47.5% | -0.5 | 0.861 | 284 | |
| Half fence | 47.4% | -0.6 | 0.832 | 293 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.0% | -1.1 | 0.690 | 313 | |
| Fence and open | 46.8% | -1.2 | 0.751 | 156 | |
| Breakable half fence | 45.2% | -2.8 | 0.300 | 303 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 2.03 on 9 df, p 0.991
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.1%295 | +1.20.773 | +0.70.866 | +2.90.474 | +0.20.963 | -0.30.941 | +1.40.786 | -2.20.592 | -1.10.797 | +0.60.885 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.20.773 | 47.0%313 | -0.50.907 | +1.80.663 | -1.00.815 | -1.50.724 | +0.20.972 | -3.40.404 | -2.30.589 | -0.60.889 |
| Half fence | -0.70.866 | +0.50.907 | 47.4%293 | +2.20.586 | -0.50.906 | -1.00.813 | +0.70.896 | -2.90.481 | -1.80.674 | -0.10.982 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.90.474 | -1.80.663 | -2.20.586 | 45.2%303 | -2.70.515 | -3.20.444 | -1.60.748 | -5.10.208 | -4.00.341 | -2.30.573 |
| Low fence | -0.20.963 | +1.00.815 | +0.50.906 | +2.70.515 | 47.9%267 | -0.50.907 | +1.10.820 | -2.40.569 | -1.30.767 | +0.40.924 |
| Single wall | +0.30.941 | +1.50.724 | +1.00.813 | +3.20.444 | +0.50.907 | 48.5%258 | +1.70.744 | -1.90.657 | -0.80.859 | +0.90.831 |
| Fence and open | -1.40.786 | -0.20.972 | -0.70.896 | +1.60.748 | -1.10.820 | -1.70.744 | 46.8%156 | -3.50.473 | -2.40.630 | -0.80.882 |
| Open | +2.20.592 | +3.40.404 | +2.90.481 | +5.10.208 | +2.40.569 | +1.90.657 | +3.50.473 | 50.3%300 | +1.10.795 | +2.80.499 |
| Rectangle | +1.10.797 | +2.30.589 | +1.80.674 | +4.00.341 | +1.30.767 | +0.80.859 | +2.40.630 | -1.10.795 | 49.2%260 | +1.70.693 |
| Octagon | -0.60.885 | +0.60.889 | +0.10.982 | +2.30.573 | -0.40.924 | -0.90.831 | +0.80.882 | -2.80.499 | -1.70.693 | 47.5%284 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,346
Win rate47.8%
Widest swing-4.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 50.5% | +2.7 | 0.418 | 204 | |
| Open | 50.0% | +2.2 | 0.448 | 260 | |
| Fence and open | 49.2% | +1.4 | 0.734 | 130 | |
| Octagon | 48.8% | +1.0 | 0.744 | 244 | |
| Single wall | 48.5% | +0.8 | 0.819 | 206 | |
| Half fence | 47.0% | -0.8 | 0.797 | 232 | |
| Full fence | 46.6% | -1.2 | 0.698 | 234 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.4% | -1.4 | 0.650 | 235 | |
| Low fence | 44.8% | -3.0 | 0.350 | 221 | |
| Breakable half fence | 43.4% | -4.3 | 0.144 | 251 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.32 on 9 df, p 0.889
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.6%234 | +0.20.966 | -0.40.931 | +3.10.485 | +1.80.702 | -2.00.681 | -2.60.628 | -3.40.448 | -3.90.414 | -2.20.632 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.20.966 | 46.4%235 | -0.60.897 | +3.00.513 | +1.60.734 | -2.20.650 | -2.90.602 | -3.60.421 | -4.10.390 | -2.40.601 |
| Half fence | +0.40.931 | +0.60.897 | 47.0%232 | +3.50.433 | +2.20.641 | -1.60.744 | -2.20.681 | -3.00.504 | -3.50.465 | -1.80.696 |
| Breakable half fence | -3.10.485 | -3.00.513 | -3.50.433 | 43.4%251 | -1.40.765 | -5.10.275 | -5.80.281 | -6.60.137 | -7.10.133 | -5.30.233 |
| Low fence | -1.80.702 | -1.60.734 | -2.20.641 | +1.40.765 | 44.8%221 | -3.70.438 | -4.40.421 | -5.20.255 | -5.70.240 | -4.00.391 |
| Single wall | +2.00.681 | +2.20.650 | +1.60.744 | +5.10.275 | +3.70.438 | 48.5%206 | -0.70.902 | -1.50.755 | -1.90.693 | -0.20.962 |
| Fence and open | +2.60.628 | +2.90.602 | +2.20.681 | +5.80.281 | +4.40.421 | +0.70.902 | 49.2%130 | -0.80.886 | -1.30.822 | +0.50.932 |
| Open | +3.40.448 | +3.60.421 | +3.00.504 | +6.60.137 | +5.20.255 | +1.50.755 | +0.80.886 | 50.0%260 | -0.50.917 | +1.20.783 |
| Rectangle | +3.90.414 | +4.10.390 | +3.50.465 | +7.10.133 | +5.70.240 | +1.90.693 | +1.30.822 | +0.50.917 | 50.5%204 | +1.70.717 |
| Octagon | +2.20.632 | +2.40.601 | +1.80.696 | +5.30.233 | +4.00.391 | +0.20.962 | -0.50.932 | -1.20.783 | -1.70.717 | 48.8%244 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted544
Win rate49.1%
Widest swing-14.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 63.0% | +14.0 | 0.048 | 46 · | |
| Full fence | 54.1% | +5.0 | 0.405 | 61 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.9% | +4.8 | 0.470 | 52 · | |
| Open | 52.5% | +3.4 | 0.653 | 40 · | |
| Half fence | 49.2% | +0.1 | 0.987 | 61 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.7% | -0.4 | 0.945 | 78 · | |
| Single wall | 48.1% | -1.0 | 0.879 | 52 · | |
| Rectangle | 44.6% | -4.4 | 0.483 | 56 · | |
| Octagon | 40.0% | -9.1 | 0.233 | 40 · | |
| Fence and open | 34.6% | -14.5 | 0.131 | 26 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.77 on 9 df, p 0.459
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.1%61 | +5.40.529 | +4.90.587 | +0.20.979 | -8.90.353 | +6.00.523 | +19.50.096 | +1.60.875 | +9.50.307 | +14.10.166 |
| Breakable full fence | -5.40.529 | 48.7%78 | -0.50.957 | -5.10.567 | -14.30.122 | +0.60.943 | +14.10.211 | -3.80.697 | +4.10.641 | +8.70.368 |
| Half fence | -4.90.587 | +0.50.957 | 49.2%61 | -4.70.621 | -13.90.153 | +1.10.907 | +14.60.211 | -3.30.744 | +4.50.623 | +9.20.365 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.20.979 | +5.10.567 | +4.70.621 | 53.9%52 | -9.20.357 | +5.80.556 | +19.20.109 | +1.40.898 | +9.20.339 | +13.80.188 |
| Low fence | +8.90.353 | +14.30.122 | +13.90.153 | +9.20.357 | 63.0%46 | +15.00.137 | +28.40.020 | +10.50.323 | +18.40.064 | +23.00.033 |
| Single wall | -6.00.523 | -0.60.943 | -1.10.907 | -5.80.556 | -15.00.137 | 48.1%52 | +13.50.258 | -4.40.674 | +3.40.721 | +8.10.440 |
| Fence and open | -19.50.096 | -14.10.211 | -14.60.211 | -19.20.109 | -28.40.020 | -13.50.258 | 34.6%26 | -17.90.154 | -10.00.391 | -5.40.659 |
| Open | -1.60.875 | +3.80.697 | +3.30.744 | -1.40.898 | -10.50.323 | +4.40.674 | +17.90.154 | 52.5%40 | +7.90.447 | +12.50.262 |
| Rectangle | -9.50.307 | -4.10.641 | -4.50.623 | -9.20.339 | -18.40.064 | -3.40.721 | +10.00.391 | -7.90.447 | 44.6%56 | +4.60.650 |
| Octagon | -14.10.166 | -8.70.368 | -9.20.365 | -13.80.188 | -23.00.033 | -8.10.440 | +5.40.659 | -12.50.262 | -4.60.650 | 40.0%40 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.