Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Brad vs Jacky
Matches counted3,811
Win rate54.5%
Widest swing-4.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 59.0% | +4.5 | 0.067 | 373 | |
| Octagon | 55.8% | +1.3 | 0.578 | 405 | |
| Full fence | 55.7% | +1.2 | 0.629 | 379 | |
| Rectangle | 55.1% | +0.6 | 0.819 | 365 | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.8% | +0.3 | 0.905 | 365 | |
| Open | 54.5% | -0.0 | 0.992 | 391 | |
| Fence and open | 54.4% | -0.1 | 0.978 | 193 | |
| Low fence | 52.8% | -1.7 | 0.471 | 381 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.5% | -2.0 | 0.410 | 366 | |
| Half fence | 49.7% | -4.8 | 0.046 | 390 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.19 on 9 df, p 0.515
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.7%379 | +3.20.379 | +5.90.100 | +0.90.810 | +2.90.420 | -3.30.359 | +1.30.773 | +1.20.738 | +0.60.868 | -0.10.971 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.20.379 | 52.5%366 | +2.70.455 | -2.30.527 | -0.30.935 | -6.50.074 | -1.90.661 | -2.00.578 | -2.60.479 | -3.30.352 |
| Half fence | -5.90.100 | -2.70.455 | 49.7%390 | -5.00.165 | -3.00.403 | -9.20.010 | -4.70.289 | -4.70.186 | -5.30.143 | -6.10.087 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.90.810 | +2.30.527 | +5.00.165 | 54.8%365 | +2.00.577 | -4.20.251 | +0.40.930 | +0.30.930 | -0.30.941 | -1.00.779 |
| Low fence | -2.90.420 | +0.30.935 | +3.00.403 | -2.00.577 | 52.8%381 | -6.20.085 | -1.60.708 | -1.70.632 | -2.30.526 | -3.00.391 |
| Single wall | +3.30.359 | +6.50.074 | +9.20.010 | +4.20.251 | +6.20.085 | 59.0%373 | +4.60.297 | +4.50.209 | +3.90.283 | +3.20.370 |
| Fence and open | -1.30.773 | +1.90.661 | +4.70.289 | -0.40.930 | +1.60.708 | -4.60.297 | 54.4%193 | -0.10.987 | -0.70.881 | -1.40.748 |
| Open | -1.20.738 | +2.00.578 | +4.70.186 | -0.30.930 | +1.70.632 | -4.50.209 | +0.10.987 | 54.5%391 | -0.60.870 | -1.30.707 |
| Rectangle | -0.60.868 | +2.60.479 | +5.30.143 | +0.30.941 | +2.30.526 | -3.90.283 | +0.70.881 | +0.60.870 | 55.1%365 | -0.70.838 |
| Octagon | +0.10.971 | +3.30.352 | +6.10.087 | +1.00.779 | +3.00.391 | -3.20.370 | +1.40.748 | +1.30.707 | +0.70.838 | 55.8%405 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,330
Win rate55.0%
Widest swing6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 61.2% | +6.2 | 0.020 | 312 | |
| Octagon | 56.7% | +1.8 | 0.488 | 349 | |
| Fence and open | 56.3% | +1.3 | 0.728 | 167 | |
| Full fence | 55.6% | +0.6 | 0.799 | 356 | |
| Open | 55.2% | +0.2 | 0.941 | 348 | |
| Rectangle | 54.1% | -0.8 | 0.751 | 325 | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.0% | -1.0 | 0.703 | 315 | |
| Breakable full fence | 53.9% | -1.1 | 0.687 | 308 | |
| Low fence | 53.1% | -1.8 | 0.479 | 333 | |
| Half fence | 50.1% | -4.8 | 0.063 | 331 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.45 on 9 df, p 0.397
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 55.6%356 | +1.70.657 | +5.50.151 | +1.60.668 | +2.50.516 | -5.60.143 | -0.70.886 | +0.50.905 | +1.50.701 | -1.10.765 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.70.657 | 53.9%308 | +3.80.344 | -0.10.986 | +0.80.851 | -7.30.065 | -2.40.617 | -1.30.743 | -0.20.948 | -2.80.465 |
| Half fence | -5.50.151 | -3.80.344 | 50.1%331 | -3.80.332 | -3.00.439 | -11.10.005 | -6.10.196 | -5.00.190 | -4.00.305 | -6.60.085 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.60.668 | +0.10.986 | +3.80.332 | 54.0%315 | +0.80.835 | -7.20.066 | -2.30.626 | -1.20.756 | -0.20.962 | -2.80.474 |
| Low fence | -2.50.516 | -0.80.851 | +3.00.439 | -0.80.835 | 53.1%333 | -8.10.039 | -3.10.507 | -2.00.597 | -1.00.797 | -3.60.348 |
| Single wall | +5.60.143 | +7.30.065 | +11.10.005 | +7.20.066 | +8.10.039 | 61.2%312 | +4.90.295 | +6.00.116 | +7.10.071 | +4.50.242 |
| Fence and open | +0.70.886 | +2.40.617 | +6.10.196 | +2.30.626 | +3.10.507 | -4.90.295 | 56.3%167 | +1.10.812 | +2.10.652 | -0.40.924 |
| Open | -0.50.905 | +1.30.743 | +5.00.190 | +1.20.756 | +2.00.597 | -6.00.116 | -1.10.812 | 55.2%348 | +1.00.791 | -1.60.678 |
| Rectangle | -1.50.701 | +0.20.948 | +4.00.305 | +0.20.962 | +1.00.797 | -7.10.071 | -2.10.652 | -1.00.791 | 54.1%325 | -2.60.501 |
| Octagon | +1.10.765 | +2.80.465 | +6.60.085 | +2.80.474 | +3.60.348 | -4.50.242 | +0.40.924 | +1.60.678 | +2.60.501 | 56.7%349 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted481
Win rate51.1%
Widest swing11.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 62.5% | +11.4 | 0.133 | 40 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 60.0% | +8.9 | 0.186 | 50 · | |
| Full fence | 56.5% | +5.4 | 0.597 | 23 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | -1.1 | 0.867 | 48 · | |
| Octagon | 50.0% | -1.1 | 0.855 | 56 · | |
| Open | 48.8% | -2.3 | 0.751 | 43 · | |
| Single wall | 47.5% | -3.6 | 0.547 | 61 · | |
| Half fence | 47.5% | -3.7 | 0.545 | 59 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 44.8% | -6.3 | 0.305 | 58 · | |
| Fence and open | 42.3% | -8.8 | 0.354 | 26 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.37 on 9 df, p 0.702
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 56.5%23 | +11.70.342 | +9.10.461 | -3.50.779 | +6.50.607 | +9.00.463 | +14.20.321 | +7.70.552 | -6.00.641 | +6.50.598 |
| Breakable full fence | -11.70.342 | 44.8%58 | -2.60.775 | -15.20.116 | -5.20.595 | -2.70.767 | +2.50.830 | -4.00.690 | -17.70.085 | -5.20.580 |
| Half fence | -9.10.461 | +2.60.775 | 47.5%59 | -12.50.191 | -2.50.794 | -0.10.993 | +5.20.661 | -1.40.890 | -15.00.141 | -2.50.785 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.50.779 | +15.20.116 | +12.50.191 | 60.0%50 | +10.00.320 | +12.50.191 | +17.70.142 | +11.20.281 | -2.50.809 | +10.00.302 |
| Low fence | -6.50.607 | +5.20.595 | +2.50.794 | -10.00.320 | 50.0%48 | +2.50.799 | +7.70.527 | +1.20.912 | -12.50.240 | +0.01.000 |
| Single wall | -9.00.463 | +2.70.767 | +0.10.993 | -12.50.191 | -2.50.799 | 47.5%61 | +5.20.654 | -1.30.896 | -15.00.140 | -2.50.790 |
| Fence and open | -14.20.321 | -2.50.830 | -5.20.661 | -17.70.142 | -7.70.527 | -5.20.654 | 42.3%26 | -6.50.598 | -20.20.107 | -7.70.516 |
| Open | -7.70.552 | +4.00.690 | +1.40.890 | -11.20.281 | -1.20.912 | +1.30.896 | +6.50.598 | 48.8%43 | -13.70.211 | -1.20.909 |
| Rectangle | +6.00.641 | +17.70.085 | +15.00.141 | +2.50.809 | +12.50.240 | +15.00.140 | +20.20.107 | +13.70.211 | 62.5%40 | +12.50.225 |
| Octagon | -6.50.598 | +5.20.580 | +2.50.785 | -10.00.302 | -0.01.000 | +2.50.790 | +7.70.516 | +1.20.909 | -12.50.225 | 50.0%56 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.