Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Brad vs El Blaze
Matches counted1,468
Win rate48.9%
Widest swing-11.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 55.6% | +6.7 | 0.281 | 63 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.5% | +5.6 | 0.139 | 154 | |
| Open | 52.3% | +3.4 | 0.417 | 130 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.1% | +2.2 | 0.592 | 133 | |
| Half fence | 49.6% | +0.7 | 0.861 | 135 | |
| Full fence | 49.4% | +0.5 | 0.901 | 160 | |
| Octagon | 48.7% | -0.2 | 0.953 | 152 | |
| Low fence | 46.6% | -2.3 | 0.536 | 163 | |
| Single wall | 46.6% | -2.3 | 0.536 | 163 | |
| Rectangle | 37.8% | -11.2 | 0.005 | 143 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.76 on 9 df, p 0.227
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.4%160 | -1.80.765 | -0.20.965 | -5.20.359 | +2.80.621 | +2.80.621 | -6.20.406 | -2.90.619 | +11.60.042 | +0.70.903 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.80.765 | 51.1%133 | +1.50.806 | -3.40.563 | +4.50.441 | +4.50.441 | -4.40.562 | -1.20.848 | +13.40.025 | +2.50.681 |
| Half fence | +0.20.965 | -1.50.806 | 49.6%135 | -4.90.404 | +3.00.605 | +3.00.605 | -5.90.437 | -2.70.663 | +11.90.046 | +0.90.873 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.20.359 | +3.40.563 | +4.90.404 | 54.5%154 | +7.90.159 | +7.90.159 | -1.00.892 | +2.20.706 | +16.80.004 | +5.90.305 |
| Low fence | -2.80.621 | -4.50.441 | -3.00.605 | -7.90.159 | 46.6%163 | +0.01.000 | -8.90.229 | -5.70.334 | +8.90.118 | -2.00.715 |
| Single wall | -2.80.621 | -4.50.441 | -3.00.605 | -7.90.159 | -0.01.000 | 46.6%163 | -8.90.229 | -5.70.334 | +8.90.118 | -2.00.715 |
| Fence and open | +6.20.406 | +4.40.562 | +5.90.437 | +1.00.892 | +8.90.229 | +8.90.229 | 55.6%63 | +3.20.671 | +17.80.018 | +6.90.359 |
| Open | +2.90.619 | +1.20.848 | +2.70.663 | -2.20.706 | +5.70.334 | +5.70.334 | -3.20.671 | 52.3%130 | +14.60.016 | +3.60.544 |
| Rectangle | -11.60.042 | -13.40.025 | -11.90.046 | -16.80.004 | -8.90.118 | -8.90.118 | -17.80.018 | -14.60.016 | 37.8%143 | -10.90.059 |
| Octagon | -0.70.903 | -2.50.681 | -0.90.873 | -5.90.305 | +2.00.715 | +2.00.715 | -6.90.359 | -3.60.544 | +10.90.059 | 48.7%152 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,196
Win rate49.7%
Widest swing-9.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 57.1% | +7.5 | 0.285 | 49 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.4% | +3.7 | 0.363 | 133 | |
| Half fence | 52.8% | +3.2 | 0.495 | 106 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.4% | +1.7 | 0.707 | 107 | |
| Open | 51.0% | +1.4 | 0.780 | 98 | |
| Octagon | 50.8% | +1.1 | 0.791 | 134 | |
| Full fence | 49.6% | -0.0 | 0.994 | 137 | |
| Low fence | 48.2% | -1.5 | 0.713 | 139 | |
| Single wall | 45.7% | -4.0 | 0.341 | 127 | |
| Rectangle | 39.8% | -9.9 | 0.032 | 108 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.64 on 9 df, p 0.571
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 49.6%137 | -1.80.784 | -3.20.621 | -3.70.538 | +1.40.812 | +4.00.519 | -7.50.367 | -1.40.834 | +9.80.125 | -1.10.855 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.80.784 | 51.4%107 | -1.40.835 | -2.00.760 | +3.20.619 | +5.70.382 | -5.70.505 | +0.40.956 | +11.60.088 | +0.70.919 |
| Half fence | +3.20.621 | +1.40.835 | 52.8%106 | -0.60.932 | +4.60.473 | +7.20.276 | -4.30.616 | +1.80.796 | +13.00.056 | +2.10.748 |
| Breakable half fence | +3.70.538 | +2.00.760 | +0.60.932 | 53.4%133 | +5.20.393 | +7.70.214 | -3.80.652 | +2.40.722 | +13.60.036 | +2.60.666 |
| Low fence | -1.40.812 | -3.20.619 | -4.60.473 | -5.20.393 | 48.2%139 | +2.50.679 | -8.90.282 | -2.80.669 | +8.40.188 | -2.50.674 |
| Single wall | -4.00.519 | -5.70.382 | -7.20.276 | -7.70.214 | -2.50.679 | 45.7%127 | -11.50.172 | -5.30.426 | +5.90.366 | -5.10.412 |
| Fence and open | +7.50.367 | +5.70.505 | +4.30.616 | +3.80.652 | +8.90.282 | +11.50.172 | 57.1%49 | +6.10.483 | +17.30.043 | +6.40.443 |
| Open | +1.40.834 | -0.40.956 | -1.80.796 | -2.40.722 | +2.80.669 | +5.30.426 | -6.10.483 | 51.0%98 | +11.20.107 | +0.30.967 |
| Rectangle | -9.80.125 | -11.60.088 | -13.00.056 | -13.60.036 | -8.40.188 | -5.90.366 | -17.30.043 | -11.20.107 | 39.8%108 | -10.90.090 |
| Octagon | +1.10.855 | -0.70.919 | -2.10.748 | -2.60.666 | +2.50.674 | +5.10.412 | -6.40.443 | -0.30.967 | +10.90.090 | 50.8%134 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted272
Win rate45.6%
Widest swing16.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Brad's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 61.9% | +16.3 | 0.118 | 21 · | |
| Open | 56.2% | +10.7 | 0.197 | 32 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | +4.4 | 0.635 | 26 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +4.4 | 0.734 | 14 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +4.4 | 0.568 | 36 · | |
| Full fence | 47.8% | +2.2 | 0.822 | 23 · | |
| Half fence | 37.9% | -7.7 | 0.381 | 29 · | |
| Low fence | 37.5% | -8.1 | 0.405 | 24 · | |
| Octagon | 33.3% | -12.3 | 0.280 | 18 · | |
| Rectangle | 31.4% | -14.2 | 0.072 | 35 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Brad's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.60 on 9 df, p 0.384
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.8%23 | -2.20.879 | +9.90.473 | -14.10.349 | +10.30.474 | -2.20.871 | -2.20.898 | -8.40.537 | +16.40.208 | +14.50.350 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.20.879 | 50.0%26 | +12.10.368 | -11.90.414 | +12.50.374 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | -6.20.635 | +18.60.142 | +16.70.272 |
| Half fence | -9.90.473 | -12.10.368 | 37.9%29 | -24.00.094 | +0.40.974 | -12.10.331 | -12.10.452 | -18.30.152 | +6.50.586 | +4.60.750 |
| Breakable half fence | +14.10.349 | +11.90.414 | +24.00.094 | 61.9%21 | +24.40.102 | +11.90.384 | +11.90.486 | +5.70.683 | +30.50.026 | +28.60.075 |
| Low fence | -10.30.474 | -12.50.374 | -0.40.974 | -24.40.102 | 37.5%24 | -12.50.340 | -12.50.452 | -18.80.165 | +6.10.628 | +4.20.780 |
| Single wall | +2.20.871 | -0.01.000 | +12.10.331 | -11.90.384 | +12.50.340 | 50.0%36 | +0.01.000 | -6.20.606 | +18.60.111 | +16.70.245 |
| Fence and open | +2.20.898 | -0.01.000 | +12.10.452 | -11.90.486 | +12.50.452 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%14 | -6.20.695 | +18.60.223 | +16.70.341 |
| Open | +8.40.537 | +6.20.635 | +18.30.152 | -5.70.683 | +18.80.165 | +6.20.606 | +6.20.695 | 56.2%32 | +24.80.041 | +22.90.119 |
| Rectangle | -16.40.208 | -18.60.142 | -6.50.586 | -30.50.026 | -6.10.628 | -18.60.111 | -18.60.223 | -24.80.041 | 31.4%35 | -1.90.888 |
| Octagon | -14.50.350 | -16.70.272 | -4.60.750 | -28.60.075 | -4.20.780 | -16.70.245 | -16.70.341 | -22.90.119 | +1.90.888 | 33.3%18 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.