Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Aoi vs Wolf
Matches counted1,898
Win rate51.1%
Widest swing7.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 58.2% | +7.1 | 0.236 | 67 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.6% | +3.5 | 0.303 | 196 | |
| Octagon | 54.5% | +3.4 | 0.310 | 200 | |
| Single wall | 52.6% | +1.5 | 0.665 | 194 | |
| Full fence | 51.7% | +0.6 | 0.850 | 238 | |
| Half fence | 50.5% | -0.6 | 0.862 | 194 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.3% | -0.8 | 0.822 | 173 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.0% | -2.1 | 0.528 | 204 | |
| Open | 47.7% | -3.4 | 0.381 | 153 | |
| Low fence | 46.8% | -4.3 | 0.213 | 186 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.94 on 9 df, p 0.745
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.7%238 | +2.70.577 | +1.20.810 | +1.40.781 | +4.90.316 | -0.90.853 | -6.50.344 | +4.00.444 | -2.90.545 | -2.80.556 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.70.577 | 49.0%204 | -1.50.765 | -1.30.806 | +2.20.658 | -3.60.478 | -9.20.192 | +1.30.807 | -5.60.265 | -5.50.270 |
| Half fence | -1.20.810 | +1.50.765 | 50.5%194 | +0.20.965 | +3.80.466 | -2.10.684 | -7.70.277 | +2.80.604 | -4.10.420 | -4.00.428 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.40.781 | +1.30.806 | -0.20.965 | 50.3%173 | +3.50.506 | -2.30.661 | -7.90.270 | +2.60.642 | -4.30.409 | -4.20.417 |
| Low fence | -4.90.316 | -2.20.658 | -3.80.466 | -3.50.506 | 46.8%186 | -5.80.258 | -11.40.108 | -0.90.863 | -7.80.127 | -7.70.129 |
| Single wall | +0.90.853 | +3.60.478 | +2.10.684 | +2.30.661 | +5.80.258 | 52.6%194 | -5.60.425 | +4.90.368 | -2.00.690 | -1.90.702 |
| Fence and open | +6.50.344 | +9.20.192 | +7.70.277 | +7.90.270 | +11.40.108 | +5.60.425 | 58.2%67 | +10.50.152 | +3.60.607 | +3.70.597 |
| Open | -4.00.444 | -1.30.807 | -2.80.604 | -2.60.642 | +0.90.863 | -4.90.368 | -10.50.152 | 47.7%153 | -6.90.202 | -6.80.206 |
| Rectangle | +2.90.545 | +5.60.265 | +4.10.420 | +4.30.409 | +7.80.127 | +2.00.690 | -3.60.607 | +6.90.202 | 54.6%196 | +0.10.985 |
| Octagon | +2.80.556 | +5.50.270 | +4.00.428 | +4.20.417 | +7.70.129 | +1.90.702 | -3.70.597 | +6.80.206 | -0.10.985 | 54.5%200 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,838
Win rate51.1%
Widest swing5.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 56.9% | +5.8 | 0.338 | 65 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.6% | +3.5 | 0.299 | 196 | |
| Octagon | 54.2% | +3.1 | 0.367 | 192 | |
| Single wall | 53.6% | +2.5 | 0.474 | 179 | |
| Full fence | 51.5% | +0.5 | 0.884 | 227 | |
| Half fence | 51.0% | -0.0 | 0.992 | 190 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.3% | -0.8 | 0.827 | 171 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.0% | -2.1 | 0.532 | 196 | |
| Open | 48.3% | -2.8 | 0.481 | 149 | |
| Low fence | 45.6% | -5.5 | 0.118 | 180 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.10 on 9 df, p 0.730
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 51.5%227 | +2.60.599 | +0.50.921 | +1.20.805 | +6.00.230 | -2.10.676 | -5.40.444 | +3.20.541 | -3.00.531 | -2.60.592 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.60.599 | 49.0%196 | -2.10.684 | -1.30.802 | +3.40.507 | -4.70.368 | -7.90.267 | +0.70.904 | -5.60.266 | -5.20.307 |
| Half fence | -0.50.921 | +2.10.684 | 51.0%190 | +0.80.885 | +5.50.290 | -2.60.620 | -5.90.413 | +2.70.618 | -3.50.486 | -3.10.542 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.20.805 | +1.30.802 | -0.80.885 | 50.3%171 | +4.70.375 | -3.30.532 | -6.60.362 | +2.00.725 | -4.30.411 | -3.90.461 |
| Low fence | -6.00.230 | -3.40.507 | -5.50.290 | -4.70.375 | 45.6%180 | -8.10.126 | -11.40.116 | -2.80.617 | -9.00.080 | -8.60.097 |
| Single wall | +2.10.676 | +4.70.368 | +2.60.620 | +3.30.532 | +8.10.126 | 53.6%179 | -3.30.648 | +5.30.338 | -1.00.852 | -0.50.918 |
| Fence and open | +5.40.444 | +7.90.267 | +5.90.413 | +6.60.362 | +11.40.116 | +3.30.648 | 56.9%65 | +8.60.247 | +2.30.743 | +2.80.700 |
| Open | -3.20.541 | -0.70.904 | -2.70.618 | -2.00.725 | +2.80.617 | -5.30.338 | -8.60.247 | 48.3%149 | -6.30.248 | -5.80.284 |
| Rectangle | +3.00.531 | +5.60.266 | +3.50.486 | +4.30.411 | +9.00.080 | +1.00.852 | -2.30.743 | +6.30.248 | 54.6%196 | +0.40.933 |
| Octagon | +2.60.592 | +5.20.307 | +3.10.542 | +3.90.461 | +8.60.097 | +0.50.918 | -2.80.700 | +5.80.284 | -0.40.933 | 54.2%192 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted60
Win rate51.7%
Widest swing48.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 100.0% | +48.3 | 0.164 | 2 · | |
| Low fence | 83.3% | +31.7 | 0.102 | 6 · | |
| Octagon | 62.5% | +10.8 | 0.510 | 8 · | |
| Full fence | 54.5% | +2.9 | 0.833 | 11 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -1.7 | 0.919 | 8 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.0% | -1.7 | 0.962 | 2 · | |
| Single wall | 40.0% | -11.7 | 0.296 | 15 · | |
| Half fence | 25.0% | -26.7 | 0.269 | 4 · | |
| Open | 25.0% | -26.7 | 0.269 | 4 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.80 on 8 df, p 0.453
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.5%11 | +4.50.845 | +29.60.310 | +4.50.906 | -28.80.235 | +14.60.462 | -45.50.224 | +29.60.310 | -8.00.729 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.50.845 | 50.0%8 | +25.00.408 | +0.01.000 | -33.30.198 | +10.00.645 | -50.00.197 | +25.00.408 | -12.50.614 |
| Half fence | -29.60.310 | -25.00.408 | 25.0%4 | -25.00.540 | -58.30.065 | -15.00.581 | -75.00.083 | +0.01.000 | -37.50.221 |
| Breakable half fence | -4.50.906 | -0.01.000 | +25.00.540 | 50.0%2 | -33.30.346 | +10.00.787 | -50.00.248 | +25.00.540 | -12.50.747 |
| Low fence | +28.80.235 | +33.30.198 | +58.30.065 | +33.30.346 | 83.3%6 | +43.30.072 | -16.70.537 | +58.30.065 | +20.80.393 |
| Single wall | -14.60.462 | -10.00.645 | +15.00.581 | -10.00.787 | -43.30.072 | 40.0%15 | -60.00.110 | +15.00.581 | -22.50.304 |
| Fence and open | +45.50.224 | +50.00.197 | +75.00.083 | +50.00.248 | +16.70.537 | +60.00.110 | 100.0%2 | +75.00.083 | +37.50.301 |
| Open | -29.60.310 | -25.00.408 | -0.01.000 | -25.00.540 | -58.30.065 | -15.00.581 | -75.00.083 | 25.0%4 | -37.50.221 |
| Octagon | +8.00.729 | +12.50.614 | +37.50.221 | +12.50.747 | -20.80.393 | +22.50.304 | -37.50.301 | +37.50.221 | 62.5%8 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.