Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Aoi vs Vanessa
Matches counted1,228
Win rate51.2%
Widest swing-6.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 54.1% | +2.9 | 0.477 | 133 | |
| Open | 53.7% | +2.5 | 0.538 | 134 | |
| Octagon | 53.3% | +2.1 | 0.626 | 120 | |
| Low fence | 50.9% | -0.3 | 0.945 | 110 | |
| Rectangle | 50.9% | -0.3 | 0.945 | 110 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.8% | -0.4 | 0.919 | 126 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.8% | -0.4 | 0.919 | 126 | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | -1.2 | 0.780 | 118 | |
| Fence and open | 46.8% | -4.5 | 0.418 | 77 · | |
| Full fence | 44.3% | -6.9 | 0.157 | 97 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 3.52 on 9 df, p 0.940
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.3%97 | -6.50.338 | -5.70.407 | -6.50.338 | -6.60.344 | -9.80.142 | -2.40.750 | -9.40.158 | -6.60.344 | -9.00.187 |
| Breakable full fence | +6.50.338 | 50.8%126 | +0.80.901 | +0.01.000 | -0.10.986 | -3.40.590 | +4.00.576 | -2.90.636 | -0.10.986 | -2.50.690 |
| Half fence | +5.70.407 | -0.80.901 | 50.0%118 | -0.80.901 | -0.90.891 | -4.10.513 | +3.20.657 | -3.70.554 | -0.90.891 | -3.30.607 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.50.338 | -0.01.000 | +0.80.901 | 50.8%126 | -0.10.986 | -3.40.590 | +4.00.576 | -2.90.636 | -0.10.986 | -2.50.690 |
| Low fence | +6.60.344 | +0.10.986 | +0.90.891 | +0.10.986 | 50.9%110 | -3.20.616 | +4.20.576 | -2.80.660 | +0.01.000 | -2.40.713 |
| Single wall | +9.80.142 | +3.40.590 | +4.10.513 | +3.40.590 | +3.20.616 | 54.1%133 | +7.40.302 | +0.40.947 | +3.20.616 | +0.80.898 |
| Fence and open | +2.40.750 | -4.00.576 | -3.20.657 | -4.00.576 | -4.20.576 | -7.40.302 | 46.8%77 | -7.00.329 | -4.20.576 | -6.60.367 |
| Open | +9.40.158 | +2.90.636 | +3.70.554 | +2.90.636 | +2.80.660 | -0.40.947 | +7.00.329 | 53.7%134 | +2.80.660 | +0.40.949 |
| Rectangle | +6.60.344 | +0.10.986 | +0.90.891 | +0.10.986 | -0.01.000 | -3.20.616 | +4.20.576 | -2.80.660 | 50.9%110 | -2.40.713 |
| Octagon | +9.00.187 | +2.50.690 | +3.30.607 | +2.50.690 | +2.40.713 | -0.80.898 | +6.60.367 | -0.40.949 | +2.40.713 | 53.3%120 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,117
Win rate50.1%
Widest swing-7.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 54.5% | +4.4 | 0.304 | 121 | |
| Single wall | 53.3% | +3.1 | 0.462 | 122 | |
| Rectangle | 51.5% | +1.4 | 0.776 | 101 | |
| Octagon | 50.9% | +0.8 | 0.863 | 108 | |
| Half fence | 50.5% | +0.3 | 0.942 | 107 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -0.1 | 0.976 | 116 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.6% | -1.5 | 0.742 | 111 | |
| Low fence | 47.4% | -2.7 | 0.576 | 97 | |
| Fence and open | 45.1% | -5.1 | 0.378 | 71 · | |
| Full fence | 43.0% | -7.1 | 0.151 | 93 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 4.50 on 9 df, p 0.876
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 43.0%93 | -7.00.314 | -7.50.292 | -5.60.421 | -4.40.541 | -10.30.136 | -2.10.792 | -11.50.094 | -8.50.238 | -7.90.262 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.00.314 | 50.0%116 | -0.50.944 | +1.40.839 | +2.60.708 | -3.30.613 | +4.90.513 | -4.50.484 | -1.50.827 | -0.90.890 |
| Half fence | +7.50.292 | +0.50.944 | 50.5%107 | +1.80.788 | +3.00.664 | -2.80.671 | +5.40.480 | -4.10.538 | -1.00.883 | -0.50.946 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.60.421 | -1.40.839 | -1.80.788 | 48.6%111 | +1.20.860 | -4.60.480 | +3.60.637 | -5.90.369 | -2.80.680 | -2.30.736 |
| Low fence | +4.40.541 | -2.60.708 | -3.00.664 | -1.20.860 | 47.4%97 | -5.90.389 | +2.40.763 | -7.10.296 | -4.10.568 | -3.50.616 |
| Single wall | +10.30.136 | +3.30.613 | +2.80.671 | +4.60.480 | +5.90.389 | 53.3%122 | +8.20.271 | -1.30.843 | +1.80.789 | +2.40.721 |
| Fence and open | +2.10.792 | -4.90.513 | -5.40.480 | -3.60.637 | -2.40.763 | -8.20.271 | 45.1%71 | -9.50.205 | -6.40.407 | -5.90.443 |
| Open | +11.50.094 | +4.50.484 | +4.10.538 | +5.90.369 | +7.10.296 | +1.30.843 | +9.50.205 | 54.5%121 | +3.10.649 | +3.60.584 |
| Rectangle | +8.50.238 | +1.50.827 | +1.00.883 | +2.80.680 | +4.10.568 | -1.80.789 | +6.40.407 | -3.10.649 | 51.5%101 | +0.60.936 |
| Octagon | +7.90.262 | +0.90.890 | +0.50.946 | +2.30.736 | +3.50.616 | -2.40.721 | +5.90.443 | -3.60.584 | -0.60.936 | 50.9%108 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted111
Win rate62.2%
Widest swing-17.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 76.9% | +14.8 | 0.243 | 13 · | |
| Full fence | 75.0% | +12.8 | 0.590 | 4 · | |
| Octagon | 75.0% | +12.8 | 0.332 | 12 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 66.7% | +4.5 | 0.699 | 15 · | |
| Fence and open | 66.7% | +4.5 | 0.815 | 6 · | |
| Single wall | 63.6% | +1.5 | 0.915 | 11 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 60.0% | -2.2 | 0.883 | 10 · | |
| Open | 46.1% | -16.0 | 0.205 | 13 · | |
| Half fence | 45.5% | -16.7 | 0.229 | 11 · | |
| Rectangle | 44.4% | -17.7 | 0.253 | 9 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.40 on 9 df, p 0.699
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 75.0%4 | +15.00.597 | +29.60.310 | +8.30.750 | -1.90.937 | +11.40.680 | +8.30.778 | +28.90.312 | +30.60.308 | +0.01.000 |
| Breakable full fence | -15.00.597 | 60.0%10 | +14.60.505 | -6.70.734 | -16.90.382 | -3.60.864 | -6.70.790 | +13.80.510 | +15.60.498 | -15.00.452 |
| Half fence | -29.60.310 | -14.60.505 | 45.5%11 | -21.20.279 | -31.50.113 | -18.20.392 | -21.20.402 | -0.70.973 | +1.00.964 | -29.60.147 |
| Breakable half fence | -8.30.750 | +6.70.734 | +21.20.279 | 66.7%15 | -10.20.549 | +3.00.873 | +0.01.000 | +20.50.274 | +22.20.285 | -8.30.637 |
| Low fence | +1.90.937 | +16.90.382 | +31.50.113 | +10.20.549 | 76.9%13 | +13.30.476 | +10.20.637 | +30.80.107 | +32.50.119 | +1.90.910 |
| Single wall | -11.40.680 | +3.60.864 | +18.20.392 | -3.00.873 | -13.30.476 | 63.6%11 | -3.00.901 | +17.50.392 | +19.20.391 | -11.40.554 |
| Fence and open | -8.30.778 | +6.70.790 | +21.20.402 | -0.01.000 | -10.20.637 | +3.00.901 | 66.7%6 | +20.50.405 | +22.20.398 | -8.30.710 |
| Open | -28.90.312 | -13.80.510 | +0.70.973 | -20.50.274 | -30.80.107 | -17.50.392 | -20.50.405 | 46.1%13 | +1.70.937 | -28.90.141 |
| Rectangle | -30.60.308 | -15.60.498 | -1.00.964 | -22.20.285 | -32.50.119 | -19.20.391 | -22.20.398 | -1.70.937 | 44.4%9 | -30.60.154 |
| Octagon | -0.01.000 | +15.00.452 | +29.60.147 | +8.30.637 | -1.90.910 | +11.40.554 | +8.30.710 | +28.90.141 | +30.60.154 | 75.0%12 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.