Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Aoi vs Pai
Matches counted1,544
Win rate49.9%
Widest swing7.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 57.3% | +7.4 | 0.152 | 89 | |
| Open | 55.4% | +5.4 | 0.194 | 130 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.7% | +2.8 | 0.423 | 186 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.2% | +2.3 | 0.514 | 180 | |
| Low fence | 50.9% | +1.0 | 0.791 | 165 | |
| Rectangle | 48.5% | -1.4 | 0.695 | 167 | |
| Half fence | 46.0% | -3.9 | 0.313 | 152 | |
| Full fence | 46.0% | -3.9 | 0.336 | 139 | |
| Single wall | 46.0% | -3.9 | 0.270 | 176 | |
| Octagon | 44.1% | -5.8 | 0.224 | 102 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.82 on 9 df, p 0.454
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.0%139 | -6.20.274 | -0.00.999 | -6.70.236 | -4.90.398 | +0.00.997 | -11.30.097 | -9.30.126 | -2.50.668 | +1.90.767 |
| Breakable full fence | +6.20.274 | 52.2%180 | +6.20.263 | -0.50.929 | +1.30.807 | +6.20.242 | -5.10.431 | -3.20.582 | +3.70.489 | +8.10.191 |
| Half fence | +0.00.999 | -6.20.263 | 46.0%152 | -6.60.225 | -4.90.387 | +0.00.996 | -11.20.092 | -9.30.118 | -2.50.662 | +1.90.761 |
| Breakable half fence | +6.70.236 | +0.50.929 | +6.60.225 | 52.7%186 | +1.80.739 | +6.70.205 | -4.60.472 | -2.70.636 | +4.20.432 | +8.60.164 |
| Low fence | +4.90.398 | -1.30.807 | +4.90.387 | -1.80.739 | 50.9%165 | +4.90.367 | -6.40.330 | -4.50.445 | +2.40.661 | +6.80.281 |
| Single wall | -0.00.997 | -6.20.242 | -0.00.996 | -6.70.205 | -4.90.367 | 46.0%176 | -11.30.083 | -9.40.105 | -2.50.646 | +1.90.758 |
| Fence and open | +11.30.097 | +5.10.431 | +11.20.092 | +4.60.472 | +6.40.330 | +11.30.083 | 57.3%89 | +1.90.779 | +8.80.180 | +13.20.069 |
| Open | +9.30.126 | +3.20.582 | +9.30.118 | +2.70.636 | +4.50.445 | +9.40.105 | -1.90.779 | 55.4%130 | +6.90.239 | +11.30.088 |
| Rectangle | +2.50.668 | -3.70.489 | +2.50.662 | -4.20.432 | -2.40.661 | +2.50.646 | -8.80.180 | -6.90.239 | 48.5%167 | +4.40.484 |
| Octagon | -1.90.767 | -8.10.191 | -1.90.761 | -8.60.164 | -6.80.281 | -1.90.758 | -13.20.069 | -11.30.088 | -4.40.484 | 44.1%102 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted1,348
Win rate49.7%
Widest swing-8.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 56.6% | +6.9 | 0.193 | 83 | |
| Open | 53.9% | +4.2 | 0.375 | 102 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.7% | +4.0 | 0.280 | 164 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.2% | +2.5 | 0.504 | 161 | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +0.3 | 0.941 | 138 | |
| Low fence | 49.2% | -0.5 | 0.913 | 134 | |
| Half fence | 46.8% | -2.9 | 0.464 | 139 | |
| Full fence | 45.9% | -3.8 | 0.379 | 122 | |
| Single wall | 45.1% | -4.6 | 0.208 | 162 | |
| Octagon | 41.4% | -8.3 | 0.108 | 87 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.72 on 9 df, p 0.464
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.9%122 | -6.30.296 | -0.90.889 | -7.80.194 | -3.40.592 | +0.80.888 | -10.70.132 | -8.00.232 | -4.10.509 | +4.50.516 |
| Breakable full fence | +6.30.296 | 52.2%161 | +5.40.350 | -1.50.789 | +2.90.617 | +7.10.201 | -4.50.509 | -1.80.782 | +2.20.708 | +10.80.105 |
| Half fence | +0.90.889 | -5.40.350 | 46.8%139 | -6.90.232 | -2.50.680 | +1.70.768 | -9.90.155 | -7.20.272 | -3.20.590 | +5.40.428 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.80.194 | +1.50.789 | +6.90.232 | 53.7%164 | +4.40.449 | +8.60.121 | -3.00.658 | -0.30.967 | +3.70.526 | +12.30.064 |
| Low fence | +3.40.592 | -2.90.617 | +2.50.680 | -4.40.449 | 49.2%134 | +4.20.472 | -7.40.291 | -4.70.477 | -0.80.902 | +7.90.251 |
| Single wall | -0.80.888 | -7.10.201 | -1.70.768 | -8.60.121 | -4.20.472 | 45.1%162 | -11.60.087 | -8.90.161 | -4.90.393 | +3.70.577 |
| Fence and open | +10.70.132 | +4.50.509 | +9.90.155 | +3.00.658 | +7.40.291 | +11.60.087 | 56.6%83 | +2.70.713 | +6.60.339 | +15.20.047 |
| Open | +8.00.232 | +1.80.782 | +7.20.272 | +0.30.967 | +4.70.477 | +8.90.161 | -2.70.713 | 53.9%102 | +3.90.548 | +12.50.085 |
| Rectangle | +4.10.509 | -2.20.708 | +3.20.590 | -3.70.526 | +0.80.902 | +4.90.393 | -6.60.339 | -3.90.548 | 50.0%138 | +8.60.207 |
| Octagon | -4.50.516 | -10.80.105 | -5.40.428 | -12.30.064 | -7.90.251 | -3.70.577 | -15.20.047 | -12.50.085 | -8.60.207 | 41.4%87 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted196
Win rate51.5%
Widest swing15.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 66.7% | +15.1 | 0.451 | 6 · | |
| Open | 60.7% | +9.2 | 0.294 | 28 · | |
| Octagon | 60.0% | +8.5 | 0.495 | 15 · | |
| Low fence | 58.1% | +6.5 | 0.428 | 31 · | |
| Single wall | 57.1% | +5.6 | 0.663 | 14 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.6% | +1.1 | 0.920 | 19 · | |
| Full fence | 47.1% | -4.5 | 0.699 | 17 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 45.5% | -6.1 | 0.545 | 22 · | |
| Rectangle | 41.4% | -10.2 | 0.236 | 29 · | |
| Half fence | 38.5% | -13.1 | 0.329 | 13 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.17 on 9 df, p 0.819
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 47.1%17 | -5.60.738 | +8.60.638 | +1.60.921 | -11.00.464 | -10.10.576 | -19.60.408 | -13.70.371 | +5.70.708 | -12.90.464 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.60.738 | 52.6%19 | +14.20.430 | +7.20.647 | -5.40.707 | -4.50.797 | -14.00.546 | -8.10.582 | +11.20.444 | -7.40.667 |
| Half fence | -8.60.638 | -14.20.430 | 38.5%13 | -7.00.686 | -19.60.235 | -18.70.332 | -28.20.252 | -22.20.184 | -2.90.859 | -21.50.256 |
| Breakable half fence | -1.60.921 | -7.20.647 | +7.00.686 | 45.5%22 | -12.60.365 | -11.70.494 | -21.20.357 | -15.30.283 | +4.10.771 | -14.60.385 |
| Low fence | +11.00.464 | +5.40.707 | +19.60.235 | +12.60.365 | 58.1%31 | +0.90.954 | -8.60.694 | -2.60.836 | +16.70.196 | -1.90.901 |
| Single wall | +10.10.576 | +4.50.797 | +18.70.332 | +11.70.494 | -0.90.954 | 57.1%14 | -9.50.690 | -3.60.824 | +15.80.331 | -2.90.876 |
| Fence and open | +19.60.408 | +14.00.546 | +28.20.252 | +21.20.357 | +8.60.694 | +9.50.690 | 66.7%6 | +6.00.785 | +25.30.258 | +6.70.776 |
| Open | +13.70.371 | +8.10.582 | +22.20.184 | +15.30.283 | +2.60.836 | +3.60.824 | -6.00.785 | 60.7%28 | +19.30.144 | +0.70.964 |
| Rectangle | -5.70.708 | -11.20.444 | +2.90.859 | -4.10.771 | -16.70.196 | -15.80.331 | -25.30.258 | -19.30.144 | 41.4%29 | -18.60.241 |
| Octagon | +12.90.464 | +7.40.667 | +21.50.256 | +14.60.385 | +1.90.901 | +2.90.876 | -6.70.776 | -0.70.964 | +18.60.241 | 60.0%15 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.