Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Aoi vs Jacky
Matches counted2,970
Win rate52.4%
Widest swing6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 58.5% | +6.2 | 0.018 | 328 | |
| Fence and open | 55.7% | +3.4 | 0.450 | 122 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.5% | +0.1 | 0.979 | 284 | |
| Octagon | 52.4% | +0.0 | 0.993 | 290 | |
| Full fence | 52.4% | -0.0 | 0.997 | 294 | |
| Open | 51.9% | -0.5 | 0.857 | 314 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.8% | -0.6 | 0.836 | 278 | |
| Single wall | 50.7% | -1.7 | 0.536 | 294 | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | -2.4 | 0.396 | 284 | |
| Half fence | 49.0% | -3.4 | 0.217 | 294 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.95 on 9 df, p 0.539
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.4%294 | -0.10.984 | +3.40.409 | +0.60.889 | +2.40.567 | +1.70.680 | -3.40.532 | +0.50.908 | -6.20.123 | -0.00.994 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.10.984 | 52.5%284 | +3.50.402 | +0.70.874 | +2.50.557 | +1.80.668 | -3.30.544 | +0.60.892 | -6.10.132 | +0.10.990 |
| Half fence | -3.40.409 | -3.50.402 | 49.0%294 | -2.80.500 | -1.00.806 | -1.70.680 | -6.80.209 | -2.90.470 | -9.60.017 | -3.40.407 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.60.889 | -0.70.874 | +2.80.500 | 51.8%278 | +1.80.670 | +1.10.789 | -3.90.467 | -0.10.978 | -6.70.096 | -0.60.883 |
| Low fence | -2.40.567 | -2.50.557 | +1.00.806 | -1.80.670 | 50.0%284 | -0.70.870 | -5.70.289 | -1.90.641 | -8.50.034 | -2.40.563 |
| Single wall | -1.70.680 | -1.80.668 | +1.70.680 | -1.10.789 | +0.70.870 | 50.7%294 | -5.10.347 | -1.20.762 | -7.90.049 | -1.70.675 |
| Fence and open | +3.40.532 | +3.30.544 | +6.80.209 | +3.90.467 | +5.70.289 | +5.10.347 | 55.7%122 | +3.80.472 | -2.80.593 | +3.30.537 |
| Open | -0.50.908 | -0.60.892 | +2.90.470 | +0.10.978 | +1.90.641 | +1.20.762 | -3.80.472 | 51.9%314 | -6.60.091 | -0.50.902 |
| Rectangle | +6.20.123 | +6.10.132 | +9.60.017 | +6.70.096 | +8.50.034 | +7.90.049 | +2.80.593 | +6.60.091 | 58.5%328 | +6.10.126 |
| Octagon | +0.00.994 | -0.10.990 | +3.40.407 | +0.60.883 | +2.40.563 | +1.70.675 | -3.30.537 | +0.50.902 | -6.10.126 | 52.4%290 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,720
Win rate52.6%
Widest swing5.6 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 58.2% | +5.6 | 0.037 | 306 | |
| Fence and open | 57.8% | +5.2 | 0.253 | 116 | |
| Octagon | 52.9% | +0.3 | 0.907 | 257 | |
| Open | 52.6% | +0.1 | 0.983 | 304 | |
| Full fence | 52.6% | +0.0 | 1.000 | 272 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.5% | -0.0 | 0.993 | 255 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.8% | -0.8 | 0.795 | 251 | |
| Low fence | 50.4% | -2.2 | 0.452 | 264 | |
| Single wall | 50.4% | -2.2 | 0.445 | 270 | |
| Half fence | 47.6% | -4.9 | 0.098 | 254 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.68 on 9 df, p 0.468
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.6%272 | +0.00.996 | +4.90.258 | +0.80.858 | +2.20.611 | +2.20.608 | -5.20.348 | -0.10.989 | -5.60.177 | -0.30.937 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.00.996 | 52.5%255 | +4.90.268 | +0.80.865 | +2.20.621 | +2.20.618 | -5.20.351 | -0.10.984 | -5.60.182 | -0.40.933 |
| Half fence | -4.90.258 | -4.90.268 | 47.6%254 | -4.20.350 | -2.70.533 | -2.70.532 | -10.10.071 | -5.00.240 | -10.50.013 | -5.30.233 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.80.858 | -0.80.865 | +4.20.350 | 51.8%251 | +1.40.748 | +1.40.746 | -6.00.287 | -0.80.844 | -6.40.132 | -1.10.800 |
| Low fence | -2.20.611 | -2.20.621 | +2.70.533 | -1.40.748 | 50.4%264 | +0.00.998 | -7.40.185 | -2.20.592 | -7.80.062 | -2.50.562 |
| Single wall | -2.20.608 | -2.20.618 | +2.70.532 | -1.40.746 | -0.00.998 | 50.4%270 | -7.40.183 | -2.30.588 | -7.80.061 | -2.50.559 |
| Fence and open | +5.20.348 | +5.20.351 | +10.10.071 | +6.00.287 | +7.40.185 | +7.40.183 | 57.8%116 | +5.10.346 | -0.40.939 | +4.80.385 |
| Open | +0.10.989 | +0.10.984 | +5.00.240 | +0.80.844 | +2.20.592 | +2.30.588 | -5.10.346 | 52.6%304 | -5.50.169 | -0.30.946 |
| Rectangle | +5.60.177 | +5.60.182 | +10.50.013 | +6.40.132 | +7.80.062 | +7.80.061 | +0.40.939 | +5.50.169 | 58.2%306 | +5.20.211 |
| Octagon | +0.30.937 | +0.40.933 | +5.30.233 | +1.10.800 | +2.50.562 | +2.50.559 | -4.80.385 | +0.30.946 | -5.20.211 | 52.9%257 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted250
Win rate50.4%
Widest swing-33.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 63.6% | +13.2 | 0.194 | 22 · | |
| Half fence | 57.5% | +7.1 | 0.327 | 40 · | |
| Single wall | 54.2% | +3.8 | 0.698 | 24 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.9% | +1.4 | 0.873 | 27 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.7% | +1.3 | 0.879 | 29 · | |
| Full fence | 50.0% | -0.4 | 0.969 | 22 · | |
| Octagon | 48.5% | -1.9 | 0.813 | 33 · | |
| Low fence | 45.0% | -5.4 | 0.615 | 20 · | |
| Open | 30.0% | -20.4 | 0.188 | 10 · | |
| Fence and open | 16.7% | -33.7 | 0.094 | 6 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.17 on 9 df, p 0.620
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.0%22 | -1.70.903 | -7.50.570 | -1.90.897 | +5.00.746 | -4.20.777 | +33.30.144 | +20.00.290 | -13.60.361 | +1.50.912 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.70.903 | 51.7%29 | -5.80.634 | -0.10.992 | +6.70.644 | -2.50.859 | +35.00.117 | +21.70.235 | -11.90.395 | +3.20.799 |
| Half fence | +7.50.570 | +5.80.634 | 57.5%40 | +5.70.648 | +12.50.360 | +3.30.795 | +40.80.062 | +27.50.119 | -6.10.637 | +9.00.442 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.90.897 | +0.10.992 | -5.70.648 | 51.9%27 | +6.80.642 | -2.30.869 | +35.20.117 | +21.90.236 | -11.80.407 | +3.40.795 |
| Low fence | -5.00.746 | -6.70.644 | -12.50.360 | -6.80.642 | 45.0%20 | -9.20.545 | +28.30.211 | +15.00.429 | -18.60.226 | -3.50.805 |
| Single wall | +4.20.777 | +2.50.859 | -3.30.795 | +2.30.869 | +9.20.545 | 54.2%24 | +37.50.100 | +24.20.198 | -9.50.515 | +5.70.672 |
| Fence and open | -33.30.144 | -35.00.117 | -40.80.062 | -35.20.117 | -28.30.211 | -37.50.100 | 16.7%6 | -13.30.551 | -47.00.041 | -31.80.148 |
| Open | -20.00.290 | -21.70.235 | -27.50.119 | -21.90.236 | -15.00.429 | -24.20.198 | +13.30.551 | 30.0%10 | -33.60.077 | -18.50.302 |
| Rectangle | +13.60.361 | +11.90.395 | +6.10.637 | +11.80.407 | +18.60.226 | +9.50.515 | +47.00.041 | +33.60.077 | 63.6%22 | +15.20.269 |
| Octagon | -1.50.912 | -3.20.799 | -9.00.442 | -3.40.795 | +3.50.805 | -5.70.672 | +31.80.148 | +18.50.302 | -15.20.269 | 48.5%33 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.