Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Aoi vs El Blaze
Matches counted1,132
Win rate48.9%
Widest swing12.8 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 61.6% | +12.8 | 0.003 | 125 | |
| Breakable half fence | 60.5% | +11.6 | 0.025 | 86 | |
| Breakable full fence | 58.6% | +9.7 | 0.031 | 111 | |
| Single wall | 47.5% | -1.3 | 0.780 | 101 | |
| Rectangle | 47.4% | -1.4 | 0.768 | 97 | |
| Octagon | 47.2% | -1.7 | 0.716 | 106 | |
| Low fence | 43.6% | -5.3 | 0.229 | 117 | |
| Fence and open | 43.3% | -5.5 | 0.380 | 60 · | |
| Open | 41.7% | -7.1 | 0.073 | 139 | |
| Full fence | 40.3% | -8.5 | 0.044 | 124 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 25.67 on 9 df, p 0.002
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 40.3%124 | -18.20.005 | -21.3<0.001 | -20.10.004 | -3.30.607 | -7.20.278 | -3.00.697 | -1.40.817 | -7.10.291 | -6.80.296 |
| Breakable full fence | +18.20.005 | 58.6%111 | -3.00.634 | -1.90.787 | +15.00.024 | +11.00.108 | +15.20.057 | +16.80.008 | +11.10.108 | +11.40.093 |
| Half fence | +21.3<0.001 | +3.00.634 | 61.6%125 | +1.10.868 | +18.00.005 | +14.10.034 | +18.30.019 | +19.90.001 | +14.20.035 | +14.40.028 |
| Breakable half fence | +20.10.004 | +1.90.787 | -1.10.868 | 60.5%86 | +16.90.017 | +12.90.077 | +17.10.041 | +18.70.006 | +13.10.077 | +13.30.066 |
| Low fence | +3.30.607 | -15.00.024 | -18.00.005 | -16.90.017 | 43.6%117 | -3.90.561 | +0.30.974 | +1.90.764 | -3.80.575 | -3.60.592 |
| Single wall | +7.20.278 | -11.00.108 | -14.10.034 | -12.90.077 | +3.90.561 | 47.5%101 | +4.20.606 | +5.80.372 | +0.10.989 | +0.30.959 |
| Fence and open | +3.00.697 | -15.20.057 | -18.30.019 | -17.10.041 | -0.30.974 | -4.20.606 | 43.3%60 | +1.60.833 | -4.10.617 | -3.80.634 |
| Open | +1.40.817 | -16.80.008 | -19.90.001 | -18.70.006 | -1.90.764 | -5.80.372 | -1.60.833 | 41.7%139 | -5.70.386 | -5.40.395 |
| Rectangle | +7.10.291 | -11.10.108 | -14.20.035 | -13.10.077 | +3.80.575 | -0.10.989 | +4.10.617 | +5.70.386 | 47.4%97 | +0.20.971 |
| Octagon | +6.80.296 | -11.40.093 | -14.40.028 | -13.30.066 | +3.60.592 | -0.30.959 | +3.80.634 | +5.40.395 | -0.20.971 | 47.2%106 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted993
Win rate47.7%
Widest swing10.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 58.5% | +10.8 | 0.019 | 106 | |
| Breakable full fence | 57.9% | +10.2 | 0.037 | 95 | |
| Breakable half fence | 56.6% | +8.8 | 0.108 | 76 · | |
| Octagon | 48.5% | +0.8 | 0.868 | 101 | |
| Rectangle | 46.2% | -1.5 | 0.761 | 93 | |
| Fence and open | 45.8% | -1.9 | 0.787 | 48 · | |
| Single wall | 45.2% | -2.5 | 0.632 | 84 | |
| Low fence | 42.3% | -5.5 | 0.257 | 97 | |
| Open | 41.0% | -6.7 | 0.096 | 134 | |
| Full fence | 39.8% | -7.9 | 0.097 | 98 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 17.63 on 9 df, p 0.040
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 39.8%98 | -18.10.012 | -18.70.008 | -16.80.028 | -2.50.726 | -5.40.459 | -6.00.487 | -1.20.848 | -6.40.369 | -8.70.216 |
| Breakable full fence | +18.10.012 | 57.9%95 | -0.60.932 | +1.30.863 | +15.60.030 | +12.70.091 | +12.10.172 | +16.90.012 | +11.70.110 | +9.40.188 |
| Half fence | +18.70.008 | +0.60.932 | 58.5%106 | +1.90.797 | +16.20.021 | +13.20.069 | +12.70.144 | +17.40.007 | +12.20.084 | +10.00.150 |
| Breakable half fence | +16.80.028 | -1.30.863 | -1.90.797 | 56.6%76 | +14.30.062 | +11.30.152 | +10.80.243 | +15.50.030 | +10.30.181 | +8.10.288 |
| Low fence | +2.50.726 | -15.60.030 | -16.20.021 | -14.30.062 | 42.3%97 | -3.00.688 | -3.60.684 | +1.20.852 | -4.00.582 | -6.20.378 |
| Single wall | +5.40.459 | -12.70.091 | -13.20.069 | -11.30.152 | +3.00.688 | 45.2%84 | -0.60.947 | +4.20.542 | -1.00.894 | -3.30.657 |
| Fence and open | +6.00.487 | -12.10.172 | -12.70.144 | -10.80.243 | +3.60.684 | +0.60.947 | 45.8%48 | +4.80.564 | -0.40.964 | -2.70.759 |
| Open | +1.20.848 | -16.90.012 | -17.40.007 | -15.50.030 | -1.20.852 | -4.20.542 | -4.80.564 | 41.0%134 | -5.20.437 | -7.50.254 |
| Rectangle | +6.40.369 | -11.70.110 | -12.20.084 | -10.30.181 | +4.00.582 | +1.00.894 | +0.40.964 | +5.20.437 | 46.2%93 | -2.30.751 |
| Octagon | +8.70.216 | -9.40.188 | -10.00.150 | -8.10.288 | +6.20.378 | +3.30.657 | +2.70.759 | +7.50.254 | +2.30.751 | 48.5%101 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted139
Win rate56.8%
Widest swing-36.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Aoi's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 90.0% | +33.2 | 0.028 | 10 · | |
| Half fence | 79.0% | +22.1 | 0.036 | 19 · | |
| Rectangle | 75.0% | +18.2 | 0.457 | 4 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 62.5% | +5.7 | 0.627 | 16 · | |
| Open | 60.0% | +3.2 | 0.884 | 5 · | |
| Single wall | 58.8% | +2.0 | 0.860 | 17 · | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | -6.8 | 0.505 | 20 · | |
| Full fence | 42.3% | -14.5 | 0.097 | 26 · | |
| Fence and open | 33.3% | -23.5 | 0.086 | 12 · | |
| Octagon | 20.0% | -36.8 | 0.090 | 5 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Aoi's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 17.14 on 9 df, p 0.047
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 42.3%26 | -20.20.204 | -36.60.014 | -47.70.010 | -7.70.604 | -16.50.289 | +9.00.599 | -17.70.467 | -32.70.222 | +22.30.348 |
| Breakable full fence | +20.20.204 | 62.5%16 | -16.40.283 | -27.50.124 | +12.50.453 | +3.70.829 | +29.20.127 | +2.50.920 | -12.50.639 | +42.50.097 |
| Half fence | +36.60.014 | +16.40.283 | 79.0%19 | -11.10.454 | +28.90.060 | +20.10.191 | +45.60.011 | +18.90.384 | +4.00.862 | +59.00.013 |
| Breakable half fence | +47.70.010 | +27.50.124 | +11.10.454 | 90.0%10 | +40.00.032 | +31.20.087 | +56.70.007 | +30.00.171 | +15.00.469 | +70.00.007 |
| Low fence | +7.70.604 | -12.50.453 | -28.90.060 | -40.00.032 | 50.0%20 | -8.80.591 | +16.70.358 | -10.00.689 | -25.00.360 | +30.00.227 |
| Single wall | +16.50.289 | -3.70.829 | -20.10.191 | -31.20.087 | +8.80.591 | 58.8%17 | +25.50.176 | -1.20.962 | -16.20.549 | +38.80.127 |
| Fence and open | -9.00.599 | -29.20.127 | -45.60.011 | -56.70.007 | -16.70.358 | -25.50.176 | 33.3%12 | -26.70.309 | -41.70.146 | +13.30.582 |
| Open | +17.70.467 | -2.50.920 | -18.90.384 | -30.00.171 | +10.00.689 | +1.20.962 | +26.70.309 | 60.0%5 | -15.00.635 | +40.00.197 |
| Rectangle | +32.70.222 | +12.50.639 | -4.00.862 | -15.00.469 | +25.00.360 | +16.20.549 | +41.70.146 | +15.00.635 | 75.0%4 | +55.00.099 |
| Octagon | -22.30.348 | -42.50.097 | -59.00.013 | -70.00.007 | -30.00.227 | -38.80.127 | -13.30.582 | -40.00.197 | -55.00.099 | 20.0%5 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.