Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Vanessa
Matches counted3,184
Win rate50.2%
Widest swing-5.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 54.3% | +4.2 | 0.123 | 311 | |
| Octagon | 54.3% | +4.1 | 0.097 | 359 | |
| Half fence | 52.6% | +2.5 | 0.337 | 340 | |
| Single wall | 51.2% | +1.0 | 0.693 | 328 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.8% | +0.6 | 0.816 | 303 | |
| Breakable full fence | 48.2% | -2.0 | 0.462 | 301 | |
| Fence and open | 48.1% | -2.0 | 0.628 | 135 | |
| Rectangle | 47.8% | -2.4 | 0.367 | 314 | |
| Low fence | 47.3% | -2.9 | 0.282 | 317 | |
| Full fence | 45.1% | -5.1 | 0.056 | 315 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.38 on 9 df, p 0.250
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 45.1%315 | -3.10.442 | -7.60.053 | -5.80.153 | -2.20.572 | -6.10.119 | -3.10.549 | -9.30.020 | -2.70.499 | -9.20.017 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.10.442 | 48.2%301 | -4.50.258 | -2.70.514 | +0.80.832 | -3.00.445 | +0.00.996 | -6.20.127 | +0.40.921 | -6.20.116 |
| Half fence | +7.60.053 | +4.50.258 | 52.6%340 | +1.80.644 | +5.30.172 | +1.40.712 | +4.50.376 | -1.70.665 | +4.90.213 | -1.70.658 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.80.153 | +2.70.514 | -1.80.644 | 50.8%303 | +3.50.383 | -0.40.921 | +2.70.605 | -3.50.383 | +3.10.448 | -3.50.370 |
| Low fence | +2.20.572 | -0.80.832 | -5.30.172 | -3.50.383 | 47.3%317 | -3.90.322 | -0.80.872 | -7.00.078 | -0.50.909 | -7.00.069 |
| Single wall | +6.10.119 | +3.00.445 | -1.40.712 | +0.40.921 | +3.90.322 | 51.2%328 | +3.10.548 | -3.10.430 | +3.50.382 | -3.10.417 |
| Fence and open | +3.10.549 | -0.00.996 | -4.50.376 | -2.70.605 | +0.80.872 | -3.10.548 | 48.1%135 | -6.20.229 | +0.40.941 | -6.20.221 |
| Open | +9.30.020 | +6.20.127 | +1.70.665 | +3.50.383 | +7.00.078 | +3.10.430 | +6.20.229 | 54.3%311 | +6.60.100 | +0.00.995 |
| Rectangle | +2.70.499 | -0.40.921 | -4.90.213 | -3.10.448 | +0.50.909 | -3.50.382 | -0.40.941 | -6.60.100 | 47.8%314 | -6.50.090 |
| Octagon | +9.20.017 | +6.20.116 | +1.70.658 | +3.50.370 | +7.00.069 | +3.10.417 | +6.20.221 | -0.00.995 | +6.50.090 | 54.3%359 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted2,515
Win rate48.7%
Widest swing-5.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 53.9% | +5.2 | 0.080 | 258 | |
| Octagon | 51.6% | +2.9 | 0.303 | 287 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.4% | +1.7 | 0.583 | 228 | |
| Single wall | 50.2% | +1.5 | 0.609 | 267 | |
| Half fence | 49.4% | +0.7 | 0.801 | 267 | |
| Low fence | 48.6% | -0.1 | 0.984 | 259 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.4% | -2.3 | 0.462 | 239 | |
| Fence and open | 44.8% | -4.0 | 0.409 | 105 | |
| Rectangle | 44.0% | -4.7 | 0.125 | 243 | |
| Full fence | 42.9% | -5.8 | 0.051 | 254 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.92 on 9 df, p 0.281
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 42.9%254 | -3.50.431 | -6.50.135 | -7.50.098 | -5.70.192 | -7.30.096 | -1.90.748 | -11.00.013 | -1.10.801 | -8.70.044 |
| Breakable full fence | +3.50.431 | 46.4%239 | -3.00.501 | -4.00.388 | -2.20.623 | -3.80.400 | +1.70.773 | -7.40.098 | +2.40.595 | -5.10.242 |
| Half fence | +6.50.135 | +3.00.501 | 49.4%267 | -1.00.824 | +0.80.856 | -0.80.863 | +4.70.417 | -4.40.309 | +5.40.222 | -2.10.616 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.50.098 | +4.00.388 | +1.00.824 | 50.4%228 | +1.80.693 | +0.20.956 | +5.70.336 | -3.40.449 | +6.40.164 | -1.10.799 |
| Low fence | +5.70.192 | +2.20.623 | -0.80.856 | -1.80.693 | 48.6%259 | -1.50.724 | +3.90.501 | -5.20.234 | +4.60.300 | -2.90.496 |
| Single wall | +7.30.096 | +3.80.400 | +0.80.863 | -0.20.956 | +1.50.724 | 50.2%267 | +5.40.346 | -3.70.398 | +6.20.164 | -1.40.745 |
| Fence and open | +1.90.748 | -1.70.773 | -4.70.417 | -5.70.336 | -3.90.501 | -5.40.346 | 44.8%105 | -9.10.115 | +0.70.900 | -6.80.233 |
| Open | +11.00.013 | +7.40.098 | +4.40.309 | +3.40.449 | +5.20.234 | +3.70.398 | +9.10.115 | 53.9%258 | +9.80.028 | +2.30.590 |
| Rectangle | +1.10.801 | -2.40.595 | -5.40.222 | -6.40.164 | -4.60.300 | -6.20.164 | -0.70.900 | -9.80.028 | 44.0%243 | -7.50.084 |
| Octagon | +8.70.044 | +5.10.242 | +2.10.616 | +1.10.799 | +2.90.496 | +1.40.745 | +6.80.233 | -2.30.590 | +7.50.084 | 51.6%287 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted669
Win rate55.8%
Widest swing-14.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 65.3% | +9.5 | 0.085 | 72 · | |
| Half fence | 64.4% | +8.6 | 0.116 | 73 · | |
| Rectangle | 60.6% | +4.8 | 0.388 | 71 · | |
| Fence and open | 60.0% | +4.2 | 0.632 | 30 · | |
| Open | 56.6% | +0.8 | 0.897 | 53 · | |
| Single wall | 55.7% | -0.0 | 0.998 | 61 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 54.8% | -0.9 | 0.879 | 62 · | |
| Full fence | 54.1% | -1.6 | 0.785 | 61 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.0% | -3.8 | 0.487 | 75 · | |
| Low fence | 41.4% | -14.4 | 0.021 | 58 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.97 on 9 df, p 0.278
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 54.1%61 | -0.70.934 | -10.30.227 | +2.10.807 | +12.70.165 | -1.60.856 | -5.90.594 | -2.50.788 | -6.50.454 | -11.20.189 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.70.934 | 54.8%62 | -9.50.259 | +2.80.740 | +13.50.140 | -0.90.920 | -5.20.640 | -1.80.849 | -5.70.505 | -10.40.218 |
| Half fence | +10.30.227 | +9.50.259 | 64.4%73 | +12.40.127 | +23.00.009 | +8.60.308 | +4.40.675 | +7.80.377 | +3.80.636 | -0.90.910 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.10.807 | -2.80.740 | -12.40.127 | 52.0%75 | +10.60.224 | -3.70.664 | -8.00.457 | -4.60.607 | -8.60.297 | -13.30.102 |
| Low fence | -12.70.165 | -13.50.140 | -23.00.009 | -10.60.224 | 41.4%58 | -14.40.117 | -18.60.097 | -15.20.109 | -19.20.030 | -23.90.007 |
| Single wall | +1.60.856 | +0.90.920 | -8.60.308 | +3.70.664 | +14.40.117 | 55.7%61 | -4.30.699 | -0.90.926 | -4.80.575 | -9.50.261 |
| Fence and open | +5.90.594 | +5.20.640 | -4.40.675 | +8.00.457 | +18.60.097 | +4.30.699 | 60.0%30 | +3.40.763 | -0.60.958 | -5.30.613 |
| Open | +2.50.788 | +1.80.849 | -7.80.377 | +4.60.607 | +15.20.109 | +0.90.926 | -3.40.763 | 56.6%53 | -4.00.658 | -8.70.324 |
| Rectangle | +6.50.454 | +5.70.505 | -3.80.636 | +8.60.297 | +19.20.030 | +4.80.575 | +0.60.958 | +4.00.658 | 60.6%71 | -4.70.559 |
| Octagon | +11.20.189 | +10.40.218 | +0.90.910 | +13.30.102 | +23.90.007 | +9.50.261 | +5.30.613 | +8.70.324 | +4.70.559 | 65.3%72 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.