Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Shun
Matches counted4,066
Win rate51.4%
Widest swing5.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 56.5% | +5.2 | 0.033 | 382 | |
| Breakable half fence | 53.2% | +1.8 | 0.468 | 363 | |
| Half fence | 52.4% | +1.0 | 0.653 | 418 | |
| Open | 52.0% | +0.7 | 0.782 | 398 | |
| Low fence | 51.6% | +0.2 | 0.923 | 446 | |
| Breakable full fence | 51.1% | -0.2 | 0.915 | 448 | |
| Fence and open | 50.7% | -0.7 | 0.846 | 213 | |
| Octagon | 49.7% | -1.6 | 0.512 | 372 | |
| Single wall | 49.2% | -2.1 | 0.339 | 445 | |
| Full fence | 48.8% | -2.5 | 0.271 | 416 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.17 on 9 df, p 0.620
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.8%416 | -2.30.496 | -3.60.299 | -4.40.224 | -2.80.416 | -0.40.903 | -1.90.651 | -3.20.360 | -7.70.029 | -0.90.794 |
| Breakable full fence | +2.30.496 | 51.1%448 | -1.30.707 | -2.00.561 | -0.50.892 | +1.90.570 | +0.40.921 | -0.90.795 | -5.40.118 | +1.40.693 |
| Half fence | +3.60.299 | +1.30.707 | 52.4%418 | -0.80.829 | +0.80.809 | +3.20.351 | +1.70.688 | +0.40.913 | -4.20.239 | +2.70.455 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.40.224 | +2.00.561 | +0.80.829 | 53.2%363 | +1.60.651 | +4.00.263 | +2.50.568 | +1.20.749 | -3.40.355 | +3.40.351 |
| Low fence | +2.80.416 | +0.50.892 | -0.80.809 | -1.60.651 | 51.6%446 | +2.40.482 | +0.90.835 | -0.40.898 | -5.00.152 | +1.80.601 |
| Single wall | +0.40.903 | -1.90.570 | -3.20.351 | -4.00.263 | -2.40.482 | 49.2%445 | -1.50.720 | -2.80.418 | -7.30.035 | -0.50.883 |
| Fence and open | +1.90.651 | -0.40.921 | -1.70.688 | -2.50.568 | -0.90.835 | +1.50.720 | 50.7%213 | -1.30.758 | -5.80.170 | +1.00.821 |
| Open | +3.20.360 | +0.90.795 | -0.40.913 | -1.20.749 | +0.40.898 | +2.80.418 | +1.30.758 | 52.0%398 | -4.50.204 | +2.30.527 |
| Rectangle | +7.70.029 | +5.40.118 | +4.20.239 | +3.40.355 | +5.00.152 | +7.30.035 | +5.80.170 | +4.50.204 | 56.5%382 | +6.80.061 |
| Octagon | +0.90.794 | -1.40.693 | -2.70.455 | -3.40.351 | -1.80.601 | +0.50.883 | -1.00.821 | -2.30.527 | -6.80.061 | 49.7%372 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,443
Win rate50.9%
Widest swing6.2 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle | 57.0% | +6.2 | 0.020 | 319 | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.8% | +2.0 | 0.472 | 299 | |
| Open | 52.1% | +1.3 | 0.624 | 326 | |
| Half fence | 51.4% | +0.5 | 0.837 | 366 | |
| Low fence | 50.8% | -0.0 | 0.987 | 368 | |
| Single wall | 50.6% | -0.2 | 0.932 | 383 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -0.9 | 0.720 | 388 | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | -0.9 | 0.814 | 178 | |
| Octagon | 49.0% | -1.8 | 0.500 | 316 | |
| Full fence | 48.2% | -2.7 | 0.286 | 361 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 7.10 on 9 df, p 0.627
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.2%361 | -1.80.622 | -3.20.393 | -4.60.235 | -2.60.480 | -2.50.504 | -1.80.694 | -4.00.301 | -8.80.021 | -0.80.825 |
| Breakable full fence | +1.80.622 | 50.0%388 | -1.40.708 | -2.80.460 | -0.80.823 | -0.70.856 | +0.01.000 | -2.10.568 | -7.00.061 | +0.90.802 |
| Half fence | +3.20.393 | +1.40.708 | 51.4%366 | -1.50.705 | +0.60.881 | +0.70.845 | +1.40.765 | -0.80.837 | -5.70.136 | +2.30.546 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.60.235 | +2.80.460 | +1.50.705 | 52.8%299 | +2.00.602 | +2.20.570 | +2.80.548 | +0.70.862 | -4.20.293 | +3.80.347 |
| Low fence | +2.60.480 | +0.80.823 | -0.60.881 | -2.00.602 | 50.8%368 | +0.20.964 | +0.80.858 | -1.30.726 | -6.20.102 | +1.80.645 |
| Single wall | +2.50.504 | +0.70.856 | -0.70.845 | -2.20.570 | -0.20.964 | 50.6%383 | +0.70.886 | -1.50.692 | -6.40.090 | +1.60.673 |
| Fence and open | +1.80.694 | -0.01.000 | -1.40.765 | -2.80.548 | -0.80.858 | -0.70.886 | 50.0%178 | -2.10.645 | -7.00.130 | +0.90.839 |
| Open | +4.00.301 | +2.10.568 | +0.80.837 | -0.70.862 | +1.30.726 | +1.50.692 | +2.10.645 | 52.1%326 | -4.90.211 | +3.10.433 |
| Rectangle | +8.80.021 | +7.00.061 | +5.70.136 | +4.20.293 | +6.20.102 | +6.40.090 | +7.00.130 | +4.90.211 | 57.0%319 | +8.00.043 |
| Octagon | +0.80.825 | -0.90.802 | -2.30.546 | -3.80.347 | -1.80.645 | -1.60.673 | -0.90.839 | -3.10.433 | -8.00.043 | 49.0%316 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted623
Win rate54.1%
Widest swing-13.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half fence | 59.6% | +5.5 | 0.404 | 52 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 58.3% | +4.2 | 0.488 | 60 · | |
| Low fence | 55.1% | +1.0 | 0.844 | 78 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.7% | +0.6 | 0.920 | 64 · | |
| Fence and open | 54.3% | +0.2 | 0.981 | 35 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.0% | -0.1 | 0.983 | 63 · | |
| Octagon | 53.6% | -0.5 | 0.935 | 56 · | |
| Full fence | 52.7% | -1.4 | 0.831 | 55 · | |
| Open | 51.4% | -2.7 | 0.624 | 72 · | |
| Single wall | 40.3% | -13.8 | 0.022 | 62 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 5.93 on 9 df, p 0.747
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.7%55 | -5.60.546 | -6.90.473 | -2.00.831 | -2.40.784 | +12.40.179 | -1.60.885 | +1.30.881 | -1.20.893 | -0.80.929 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.60.546 | 58.3%60 | -1.30.891 | +3.60.682 | +3.20.707 | +18.00.047 | +4.00.701 | +6.90.425 | +4.40.626 | +4.80.606 |
| Half fence | +6.90.473 | +1.30.891 | 59.6%52 | +4.90.594 | +4.50.613 | +19.30.040 | +5.30.622 | +8.20.364 | +5.70.543 | +6.00.527 |
| Breakable half fence | +2.00.831 | -3.60.682 | -4.90.594 | 54.7%64 | -0.40.958 | +14.40.107 | +0.40.969 | +3.30.700 | +0.70.935 | +1.10.903 |
| Low fence | +2.40.784 | -3.20.707 | -4.50.613 | +0.40.958 | 55.1%78 | +14.80.082 | +0.80.934 | +3.70.647 | +1.20.891 | +1.60.858 |
| Single wall | -12.40.179 | -18.00.047 | -19.30.040 | -14.40.107 | -14.80.082 | 40.3%62 | -14.00.185 | -11.10.200 | -13.70.127 | -13.20.150 |
| Fence and open | +1.60.885 | -4.00.701 | -5.30.622 | -0.40.969 | -0.80.934 | +14.00.185 | 54.3%35 | +2.90.778 | +0.30.976 | +0.70.947 |
| Open | -1.30.881 | -6.90.425 | -8.20.364 | -3.30.700 | -3.70.647 | +11.10.200 | -2.90.778 | 51.4%72 | -2.60.765 | -2.20.806 |
| Rectangle | +1.20.893 | -4.40.626 | -5.70.543 | -0.70.935 | -1.20.891 | +13.70.127 | -0.30.976 | +2.60.765 | 54.0%63 | +0.40.965 |
| Octagon | +0.80.929 | -4.80.606 | -6.00.527 | -1.10.903 | -1.60.858 | +13.20.150 | -0.70.947 | +2.20.806 | -0.40.965 | 53.6%56 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.