Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Pai
Matches counted3,646
Win rate51.2%
Widest swing8.8 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 60.0% | +8.8 | 0.025 | 155 | |
| Half fence | 54.0% | +2.8 | 0.269 | 352 | |
| Rectangle | 52.8% | +1.7 | 0.512 | 352 | |
| Full fence | 52.3% | +1.1 | 0.649 | 369 | |
| Open | 52.0% | +0.8 | 0.740 | 410 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -1.2 | 0.640 | 354 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.4% | -1.8 | 0.441 | 413 | |
| Single wall | 49.0% | -2.2 | 0.390 | 355 | |
| Low fence | 49.0% | -2.2 | 0.392 | 341 | |
| Octagon | 48.5% | -2.6 | 0.305 | 346 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.61 on 9 df, p 0.383
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 52.3%369 | +2.30.536 | -1.70.653 | +2.90.417 | +3.30.375 | +3.30.376 | -7.70.106 | +0.30.922 | -0.50.885 | +3.80.316 |
| Breakable full fence | -2.30.536 | 50.0%354 | -4.00.290 | +0.60.867 | +1.00.787 | +1.00.793 | -10.00.037 | -1.90.591 | -2.80.450 | +1.40.702 |
| Half fence | +1.70.653 | +4.00.290 | 54.0%352 | +4.60.206 | +5.00.188 | +5.00.187 | -6.00.208 | +2.00.576 | +1.10.762 | +5.40.152 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.90.417 | -0.60.867 | -4.60.206 | 49.4%413 | +0.40.908 | +0.40.916 | -10.60.024 | -2.60.463 | -3.50.342 | +0.80.818 |
| Low fence | -3.30.375 | -1.00.787 | -5.00.188 | -0.40.908 | 49.0%341 | -0.00.991 | -11.00.023 | -3.00.416 | -3.90.309 | +0.40.913 |
| Single wall | -3.30.376 | -1.00.793 | -5.00.187 | -0.40.916 | +0.00.991 | 49.0%355 | -11.00.022 | -2.90.418 | -3.80.309 | +0.50.903 |
| Fence and open | +7.70.106 | +10.00.037 | +6.00.208 | +10.60.024 | +11.00.023 | +11.00.022 | 60.0%155 | +8.10.087 | +7.20.135 | +11.40.018 |
| Open | -0.30.922 | +1.90.591 | -2.00.576 | +2.60.463 | +3.00.416 | +2.90.418 | -8.10.087 | 52.0%410 | -0.90.806 | +3.40.352 |
| Rectangle | +0.50.885 | +2.80.450 | -1.10.762 | +3.50.342 | +3.90.309 | +3.80.309 | -7.20.135 | +0.90.806 | 52.8%352 | +4.30.257 |
| Octagon | -3.80.316 | -1.40.702 | -5.40.152 | -0.80.818 | -0.40.913 | -0.50.903 | -11.40.018 | -3.40.352 | -4.30.257 | 48.5%346 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,279
Win rate51.4%
Widest swing8.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 59.4% | +8.1 | 0.049 | 143 | |
| Half fence | 54.0% | +2.6 | 0.332 | 313 | |
| Full fence | 53.3% | +1.9 | 0.462 | 334 | |
| Rectangle | 52.6% | +1.2 | 0.659 | 310 | |
| Open | 51.6% | +0.2 | 0.929 | 374 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.8% | -0.6 | 0.812 | 372 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | -1.4 | 0.605 | 314 | |
| Single wall | 49.0% | -2.4 | 0.382 | 314 | |
| Low fence | 48.7% | -2.6 | 0.321 | 318 | |
| Octagon | 48.1% | -3.3 | 0.219 | 312 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.47 on 9 df, p 0.488
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 53.3%334 | +3.30.402 | -0.70.858 | +2.50.509 | +4.50.245 | +4.20.280 | -6.20.216 | +1.70.653 | +0.70.856 | +5.20.185 |
| Breakable full fence | -3.30.402 | 50.0%314 | -4.00.317 | -0.80.833 | +1.30.752 | +1.00.811 | -9.40.061 | -1.60.675 | -2.60.519 | +1.90.630 |
| Half fence | +0.70.858 | +4.00.317 | 54.0%313 | +3.20.405 | +5.20.187 | +5.00.215 | -5.50.277 | +2.40.532 | +1.40.724 | +5.90.139 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.50.509 | +0.80.833 | -3.20.405 | 50.8%372 | +2.10.589 | +1.80.646 | -8.60.079 | -0.80.827 | -1.80.644 | +2.70.477 |
| Low fence | -4.50.245 | -1.30.752 | -5.20.187 | -2.10.589 | 48.7%318 | -0.30.939 | -10.70.033 | -2.90.453 | -3.80.336 | +0.70.867 |
| Single wall | -4.20.280 | -1.00.811 | -5.00.215 | -1.80.646 | +0.30.939 | 49.0%314 | -10.40.039 | -2.60.504 | -3.50.377 | +1.00.809 |
| Fence and open | +6.20.216 | +9.40.061 | +5.50.277 | +8.60.079 | +10.70.033 | +10.40.039 | 59.4%143 | +7.80.110 | +6.90.173 | +11.40.024 |
| Open | -1.70.653 | +1.60.675 | -2.40.532 | +0.80.827 | +2.90.453 | +2.60.504 | -7.80.110 | 51.6%374 | -1.00.799 | +3.50.358 |
| Rectangle | -0.70.856 | +2.60.519 | -1.40.724 | +1.80.644 | +3.80.336 | +3.50.377 | -6.90.173 | +1.00.799 | 52.6%310 | +4.50.261 |
| Octagon | -5.20.185 | -1.90.630 | -5.90.139 | -2.70.477 | -0.70.867 | -1.00.809 | -11.40.024 | -3.50.358 | -4.50.261 | 48.1%312 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted367
Win rate49.3%
Widest swing17.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fence and open | 66.7% | +17.4 | 0.222 | 12 · | |
| Open | 55.6% | +6.2 | 0.431 | 36 · | |
| Rectangle | 54.8% | +5.4 | 0.453 | 42 · | |
| Half fence | 53.9% | +4.5 | 0.550 | 39 · | |
| Octagon | 52.9% | +3.6 | 0.657 | 34 · | |
| Low fence | 52.2% | +2.9 | 0.777 | 23 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.0% | +0.7 | 0.927 | 40 · | |
| Single wall | 48.8% | -0.5 | 0.942 | 41 · | |
| Full fence | 42.9% | -6.5 | 0.421 | 35 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 36.6% | -12.7 | 0.084 | 41 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.24 on 9 df, p 0.716
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 42.9%35 | -7.10.536 | -11.00.345 | +6.30.577 | -9.30.487 | -5.90.606 | -23.80.154 | -12.70.285 | -11.90.298 | -10.10.402 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.10.536 | 50.0%40 | -3.90.732 | +13.40.223 | -2.20.868 | +1.20.913 | -16.70.310 | -5.60.628 | -4.80.666 | -2.90.801 |
| Half fence | +11.00.345 | +3.90.732 | 53.9%39 | +17.30.121 | +1.70.899 | +5.10.650 | -12.80.433 | -1.70.882 | -0.90.934 | +0.90.938 |
| Breakable half fence | -6.30.577 | -13.40.223 | -17.30.121 | 36.6%41 | -15.60.226 | -12.20.264 | -30.10.064 | -19.00.095 | -18.20.097 | -16.40.155 |
| Low fence | +9.30.487 | +2.20.868 | -1.70.899 | +15.60.226 | 52.2%23 | +3.40.794 | -14.50.411 | -3.40.799 | -2.60.841 | -0.80.955 |
| Single wall | +5.90.606 | -1.20.913 | -5.10.650 | +12.20.264 | -3.40.794 | 48.8%41 | -17.90.275 | -6.80.553 | -6.00.586 | -4.20.720 |
| Fence and open | +23.80.154 | +16.70.310 | +12.80.433 | +30.10.064 | +14.50.411 | +17.90.275 | 66.7%12 | +11.10.499 | +11.90.462 | +13.70.410 |
| Open | +12.70.285 | +5.60.628 | +1.70.882 | +19.00.095 | +3.40.799 | +6.80.553 | -11.10.499 | 55.6%36 | +0.80.944 | +2.60.826 |
| Rectangle | +11.90.298 | +4.80.666 | +0.90.934 | +18.20.097 | +2.60.841 | +6.00.586 | -11.90.462 | -0.80.944 | 54.8%42 | +1.80.874 |
| Octagon | +10.10.402 | +2.90.801 | -0.90.938 | +16.40.155 | +0.80.955 | +4.20.720 | -13.70.410 | -2.60.826 | -1.80.874 | 52.9%34 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.