Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Lion
Matches counted4,583
Win rate48.1%
Widest swing-4.7 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 51.9% | +3.7 | 0.083 | 486 | |
| Octagon | 50.3% | +2.2 | 0.312 | 481 | |
| Low fence | 49.7% | +1.6 | 0.511 | 384 | |
| Half fence | 49.4% | +1.3 | 0.561 | 447 | |
| Breakable half fence | 47.5% | -0.6 | 0.783 | 442 | |
| Single wall | 47.2% | -0.9 | 0.665 | 527 | |
| Full fence | 46.4% | -1.7 | 0.447 | 429 | |
| Open | 45.7% | -2.4 | 0.271 | 468 | |
| Rectangle | 45.3% | -2.8 | 0.173 | 510 | |
| Fence and open | 43.5% | -4.7 | 0.170 | 207 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.51 on 9 df, p 0.391
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.4%429 | -5.50.099 | -3.00.366 | -1.10.740 | -3.40.339 | -0.90.791 | +2.90.490 | +0.70.843 | +1.10.738 | -3.90.237 |
| Breakable full fence | +5.50.099 | 51.9%486 | +2.40.462 | +4.30.187 | +2.10.536 | +4.60.143 | +8.40.044 | +6.10.058 | +6.60.038 | +1.50.632 |
| Half fence | +3.00.366 | -2.40.462 | 49.4%447 | +1.90.565 | -0.30.932 | +2.20.495 | +6.00.156 | +3.70.261 | +4.20.200 | -0.90.791 |
| Breakable half fence | +1.10.740 | -4.30.187 | -1.90.565 | 47.5%442 | -2.20.523 | +0.30.935 | +4.00.337 | +1.80.590 | +2.20.494 | -2.80.395 |
| Low fence | +3.40.339 | -2.10.536 | +0.30.932 | +2.20.523 | 49.7%384 | +2.50.458 | +6.30.146 | +4.00.243 | +4.50.188 | -0.60.867 |
| Single wall | +0.90.791 | -4.60.143 | -2.20.495 | -0.30.935 | -2.50.458 | 47.2%527 | +3.80.357 | +1.50.631 | +2.00.528 | -3.10.331 |
| Fence and open | -2.90.490 | -8.40.044 | -6.00.156 | -4.00.337 | -6.30.146 | -3.80.357 | 43.5%207 | -2.20.588 | -1.80.658 | -6.80.100 |
| Open | -0.70.843 | -6.10.058 | -3.70.261 | -1.80.590 | -4.00.243 | -1.50.631 | +2.20.588 | 45.7%468 | +0.40.892 | -4.60.158 |
| Rectangle | -1.10.738 | -6.60.038 | -4.20.200 | -2.20.494 | -4.50.188 | -2.00.528 | +1.80.658 | -0.40.892 | 45.3%510 | -5.00.114 |
| Octagon | +3.90.237 | -1.50.632 | +0.90.791 | +2.80.395 | +0.60.867 | +3.10.331 | +6.80.100 | +4.60.158 | +5.00.114 | 50.3%481 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,796
Win rate47.9%
Widest swing5.0 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable full fence | 52.9% | +5.0 | 0.035 | 391 | |
| Octagon | 51.2% | +3.4 | 0.155 | 400 | |
| Low fence | 48.6% | +0.7 | 0.804 | 313 | |
| Half fence | 48.3% | +0.5 | 0.857 | 362 | |
| Open | 47.5% | -0.3 | 0.879 | 406 | |
| Single wall | 46.5% | -1.4 | 0.535 | 426 | |
| Breakable half fence | 46.2% | -1.7 | 0.493 | 368 | |
| Full fence | 46.0% | -1.9 | 0.441 | 359 | |
| Rectangle | 44.1% | -3.8 | 0.096 | 435 | |
| Fence and open | 44.0% | -3.9 | 0.302 | 166 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.64 on 9 df, p 0.301
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 46.0%359 | -7.00.056 | -2.40.522 | -0.20.949 | -2.60.500 | -0.50.885 | +2.00.671 | -1.60.663 | +1.80.607 | -5.30.146 |
| Breakable full fence | +7.00.056 | 52.9%391 | +4.60.207 | +6.70.063 | +4.40.248 | +6.50.065 | +9.00.053 | +5.40.127 | +8.80.011 | +1.70.634 |
| Half fence | +2.40.522 | -4.60.207 | 48.3%362 | +2.10.561 | -0.20.955 | +1.90.602 | +4.40.351 | +0.80.823 | +4.20.236 | -2.90.423 |
| Breakable half fence | +0.20.949 | -6.70.063 | -2.10.561 | 46.2%368 | -2.40.538 | -0.30.936 | +2.20.634 | -1.30.709 | +2.10.559 | -5.00.162 |
| Low fence | +2.60.500 | -4.40.248 | +0.20.955 | +2.40.538 | 48.6%313 | +2.10.575 | +4.60.339 | +1.00.785 | +4.40.231 | -2.70.476 |
| Single wall | +0.50.885 | -6.50.065 | -1.90.602 | +0.30.936 | -2.10.575 | 46.5%426 | +2.50.583 | -1.10.760 | +2.30.490 | -4.80.170 |
| Fence and open | -2.00.671 | -9.00.053 | -4.40.351 | -2.20.634 | -4.60.339 | -2.50.583 | 44.0%166 | -3.60.438 | -0.20.971 | -7.30.115 |
| Open | +1.60.663 | -5.40.127 | -0.80.823 | +1.30.709 | -1.00.785 | +1.10.760 | +3.60.438 | 47.5%406 | +3.40.323 | -3.70.292 |
| Rectangle | -1.80.607 | -8.80.011 | -4.20.236 | -2.10.559 | -4.40.231 | -2.30.490 | +0.20.971 | -3.40.323 | 44.1%435 | -7.10.040 |
| Octagon | +5.30.146 | -1.70.634 | +2.90.423 | +5.00.162 | +2.70.476 | +4.80.170 | +7.30.115 | +3.70.292 | +7.10.040 | 51.2%400 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted787
Win rate49.3%
Widest swing-15.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 54.9% | +5.6 | 0.320 | 71 · | |
| Half fence | 54.1% | +4.8 | 0.347 | 85 | |
| Breakable half fence | 54.0% | +4.8 | 0.390 | 74 · | |
| Rectangle | 52.0% | +2.7 | 0.623 | 75 · | |
| Single wall | 50.5% | +1.2 | 0.797 | 101 | |
| Full fence | 48.6% | -0.7 | 0.898 | 70 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.4% | -1.9 | 0.688 | 95 | |
| Octagon | 45.7% | -3.6 | 0.491 | 81 | |
| Fence and open | 41.5% | -7.8 | 0.303 | 41 · | |
| Open | 33.9% | -15.4 | 0.011 | 62 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.08 on 9 df, p 0.344
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.6%70 | +1.20.878 | -5.50.492 | -5.50.511 | -6.40.450 | -1.90.805 | +7.10.468 | +14.70.087 | -3.40.680 | +2.90.723 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.20.878 | 47.4%95 | -6.80.366 | -6.70.388 | -7.60.335 | -3.10.662 | +5.90.526 | +13.50.094 | -4.60.549 | +1.70.823 |
| Half fence | +5.50.492 | +6.80.366 | 54.1%85 | +0.10.994 | -0.80.919 | +3.60.622 | +12.70.183 | +20.20.015 | +2.10.789 | +8.40.277 |
| Breakable half fence | +5.50.511 | +6.70.388 | -0.10.994 | 54.0%74 | -0.90.916 | +3.50.642 | +12.60.196 | +20.20.018 | +2.00.802 | +8.40.298 |
| Low fence | +6.40.450 | +7.60.335 | +0.80.919 | +0.90.916 | 54.9%71 | +4.40.566 | +13.50.170 | +21.10.015 | +2.90.723 | +9.20.255 |
| Single wall | +1.90.805 | +3.10.662 | -3.60.622 | -3.50.642 | -4.40.566 | 50.5%101 | +9.00.329 | +16.60.038 | -1.50.843 | +4.80.518 |
| Fence and open | -7.10.468 | -5.90.526 | -12.70.183 | -12.60.196 | -13.50.170 | -9.00.329 | 41.5%41 | +7.60.434 | -10.50.278 | -4.20.658 |
| Open | -14.70.087 | -13.50.094 | -20.20.015 | -20.20.018 | -21.10.015 | -16.60.038 | -7.60.434 | 33.9%62 | -18.10.033 | -11.80.154 |
| Rectangle | +3.40.680 | +4.60.549 | -2.10.789 | -2.00.802 | -2.90.723 | +1.50.843 | +10.50.278 | +18.10.033 | 52.0%75 | +6.30.430 |
| Octagon | -2.90.723 | -1.70.823 | -8.40.277 | -8.40.298 | -9.20.255 | -4.80.518 | +4.20.658 | +11.80.154 | -6.30.430 | 45.7%81 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.