Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Lau
Matches counted4,792
Win rate48.2%
Widest swing-7.5 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low fence | 51.0% | +2.8 | 0.183 | 500 | |
| Octagon | 50.9% | +2.7 | 0.201 | 491 | |
| Half fence | 49.1% | +1.0 | 0.658 | 472 | |
| Full fence | 48.5% | +0.3 | 0.879 | 532 | |
| Breakable half fence | 48.3% | +0.1 | 0.966 | 408 | |
| Rectangle | 47.7% | -0.5 | 0.840 | 440 | |
| Breakable full fence | 47.2% | -0.9 | 0.659 | 489 | |
| Single wall | 46.8% | -1.4 | 0.534 | 432 | |
| Open | 45.7% | -2.5 | 0.239 | 499 | |
| Fence and open | 40.7% | -7.5 | 0.013 | 258 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 10.76 on 9 df, p 0.292
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.5%532 | +1.30.688 | -0.70.836 | +0.20.949 | -2.50.421 | +1.70.591 | +7.80.039 | +2.80.367 | +0.80.811 | -2.40.439 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.30.688 | 47.2%489 | -1.90.553 | -1.00.755 | -3.80.237 | +0.50.884 | +6.50.087 | +1.60.626 | -0.50.882 | -3.70.250 |
| Half fence | +0.70.836 | +1.90.553 | 49.1%472 | +0.90.797 | -1.90.565 | +2.40.472 | +8.40.028 | +3.50.280 | +1.40.667 | -1.80.584 |
| Breakable half fence | -0.20.949 | +1.00.755 | -0.90.797 | 48.3%408 | -2.70.416 | +1.50.658 | +7.60.055 | +2.60.436 | +0.60.871 | -2.60.432 |
| Low fence | +2.50.421 | +3.80.237 | +1.90.565 | +2.70.416 | 51.0%500 | +4.20.197 | +10.30.007 | +5.30.093 | +3.30.317 | +0.10.979 |
| Single wall | -1.70.591 | -0.50.884 | -2.40.472 | -1.50.658 | -4.20.197 | 46.8%432 | +6.10.121 | +1.10.744 | -1.00.775 | -4.20.207 |
| Fence and open | -7.80.039 | -6.50.087 | -8.40.028 | -7.60.055 | -10.30.007 | -6.10.121 | 40.7%258 | -5.00.190 | -7.00.072 | -10.20.008 |
| Open | -2.80.367 | -1.60.626 | -3.50.280 | -2.60.436 | -5.30.093 | -1.10.744 | +5.00.190 | 45.7%499 | -2.00.533 | -5.20.100 |
| Rectangle | -0.80.811 | +0.50.882 | -1.40.667 | -0.60.871 | -3.30.317 | +1.00.775 | +7.00.072 | +2.00.533 | 47.7%440 | -3.20.331 |
| Octagon | +2.40.439 | +3.70.250 | +1.80.584 | +2.60.432 | -0.10.979 | +4.20.207 | +10.20.008 | +5.20.100 | +3.20.331 | 50.9%491 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,823
Win rate48.6%
Widest swing-6.9 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon | 53.0% | +4.4 | 0.064 | 398 | |
| Low fence | 51.2% | +2.6 | 0.266 | 410 | |
| Full fence | 50.1% | +1.5 | 0.513 | 427 | |
| Half fence | 48.7% | +0.1 | 0.971 | 351 | |
| Rectangle | 48.7% | +0.1 | 0.979 | 345 | |
| Single wall | 48.2% | -0.5 | 0.853 | 353 | |
| Breakable half fence | 47.2% | -1.4 | 0.594 | 322 | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.0% | -2.6 | 0.279 | 391 | |
| Open | 45.1% | -3.5 | 0.152 | 381 | |
| Fence and open | 41.7% | -6.9 | 0.036 | 218 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.78 on 9 df, p 0.226
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 50.1%427 | +4.10.243 | +1.40.698 | +2.90.430 | -1.10.750 | +2.00.586 | +8.40.044 | +5.00.158 | +1.40.695 | -2.90.405 |
| Breakable full fence | -4.10.243 | 46.0%391 | -2.70.465 | -1.20.755 | -5.20.142 | -2.10.562 | +4.30.307 | +0.90.804 | -2.70.471 | -7.00.050 |
| Half fence | -1.40.698 | +2.70.465 | 48.7%351 | +1.50.695 | -2.50.491 | +0.60.882 | +7.00.105 | +3.60.333 | +0.00.995 | -4.30.240 |
| Breakable half fence | -2.90.430 | +1.20.755 | -1.50.695 | 47.2%322 | -4.00.281 | -1.00.804 | +5.50.211 | +2.10.585 | -1.50.700 | -5.80.121 |
| Low fence | +1.10.750 | +5.20.142 | +2.50.491 | +4.00.281 | 51.2%410 | +3.10.399 | +9.50.024 | +6.10.088 | +2.50.490 | -1.80.609 |
| Single wall | -2.00.586 | +2.10.562 | -0.60.882 | +1.00.804 | -3.10.399 | 48.2%353 | +6.40.135 | +3.00.413 | -0.50.887 | -4.90.184 |
| Fence and open | -8.40.044 | -4.30.307 | -7.00.105 | -5.50.211 | -9.50.024 | -6.40.135 | 41.7%218 | -3.40.420 | -7.00.107 | -11.30.007 |
| Open | -5.00.158 | -0.90.804 | -3.60.333 | -2.10.585 | -6.10.088 | -3.00.413 | +3.40.420 | 45.1%381 | -3.60.338 | -7.90.028 |
| Rectangle | -1.40.695 | +2.70.471 | -0.00.995 | +1.50.700 | -2.50.490 | +0.50.887 | +7.00.107 | +3.60.338 | 48.7%345 | -4.30.240 |
| Octagon | +2.90.405 | +7.00.050 | +4.30.240 | +5.80.121 | +1.80.609 | +4.90.184 | +11.30.007 | +7.90.028 | +4.30.240 | 53.0%398 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted969
Win rate46.4%
Widest swing-11.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 52.3% | +5.9 | 0.252 | 86 | |
| Breakable full fence | 52.0% | +5.6 | 0.241 | 98 | |
| Half fence | 50.4% | +4.0 | 0.349 | 121 | |
| Low fence | 50.0% | +3.6 | 0.477 | 90 | |
| Open | 47.5% | +1.0 | 0.813 | 118 | |
| Rectangle | 44.2% | -2.2 | 0.646 | 95 | |
| Octagon | 41.9% | -4.5 | 0.360 | 93 | |
| Full fence | 41.9% | -4.5 | 0.324 | 105 | |
| Single wall | 40.5% | -5.9 | 0.270 | 79 · | |
| Fence and open | 35.0% | -11.4 | 0.138 | 40 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 8.75 on 9 df, p 0.461
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 41.9%105 | -10.10.148 | -8.50.201 | -10.40.151 | -8.10.258 | +1.40.849 | +6.90.448 | -5.60.405 | -2.30.742 | -0.00.997 |
| Breakable full fence | +10.10.148 | 52.0%98 | +1.60.811 | -0.30.969 | +2.00.780 | +11.50.126 | +17.00.069 | +4.60.502 | +7.80.276 | +10.10.162 |
| Half fence | +8.50.201 | -1.60.811 | 50.4%121 | -1.90.786 | +0.40.953 | +9.90.170 | +15.40.090 | +3.00.648 | +6.20.365 | +8.50.218 |
| Breakable half fence | +10.40.151 | +0.30.969 | +1.90.786 | 52.3%86 | +2.30.758 | +11.80.128 | +17.30.070 | +4.90.492 | +8.10.275 | +10.40.164 |
| Low fence | +8.10.258 | -2.00.780 | -0.40.953 | -2.30.758 | 50.0%90 | +9.50.216 | +15.00.113 | +2.50.716 | +5.80.430 | +8.10.274 |
| Single wall | -1.40.849 | -11.50.126 | -9.90.170 | -11.80.128 | -9.50.216 | 40.5%79 | +5.50.560 | -7.00.336 | -3.70.623 | -1.40.850 |
| Fence and open | -6.90.448 | -17.00.069 | -15.40.090 | -17.30.070 | -15.00.113 | -5.50.560 | 35.0%40 | -12.50.170 | -9.20.321 | -6.90.454 |
| Open | +5.60.405 | -4.60.502 | -3.00.648 | -4.90.492 | -2.50.716 | +7.00.336 | +12.50.170 | 47.5%118 | +3.20.636 | +5.50.423 |
| Rectangle | +2.30.742 | -7.80.276 | -6.20.365 | -8.10.275 | -5.80.430 | +3.70.623 | +9.20.321 | -3.20.636 | 44.2%95 | +2.30.753 |
| Octagon | +0.00.997 | -10.10.162 | -8.50.218 | -10.40.164 | -8.10.274 | +1.40.850 | +6.90.454 | -5.50.423 | -2.30.753 | 41.9%93 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.