Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Dural
Matches counted932
Win rate48.4%
Widest swing8.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 56.7% | +8.3 | 0.084 | 97 | |
| Open | 54.2% | +5.8 | 0.307 | 72 · | |
| Rectangle | 53.9% | +5.5 | 0.273 | 91 | |
| Low fence | 52.8% | +4.4 | 0.380 | 89 | |
| Breakable half fence | 50.9% | +2.5 | 0.576 | 106 | |
| Fence and open | 48.8% | +0.4 | 0.959 | 41 · | |
| Full fence | 43.7% | -4.7 | 0.356 | 87 | |
| Breakable full fence | 43.5% | -4.9 | 0.347 | 85 | |
| Half fence | 42.5% | -5.8 | 0.232 | 94 | |
| Octagon | 40.2% | -8.2 | 0.051 | 122 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.87 on 9 df, p 0.221
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 43.7%87 | +0.10.984 | +1.10.879 | -7.30.315 | -9.10.226 | -13.00.078 | -5.10.588 | -10.50.188 | -10.20.175 | +3.50.611 |
| Breakable full fence | -0.10.984 | 43.5%85 | +1.00.895 | -7.40.308 | -9.30.221 | -13.20.076 | -5.20.579 | -10.60.184 | -10.30.171 | +3.40.629 |
| Half fence | -1.10.879 | -1.00.895 | 42.5%94 | -8.40.235 | -10.30.165 | -14.20.051 | -6.20.503 | -11.60.138 | -11.30.124 | +2.40.724 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.30.315 | +7.40.308 | +8.40.235 | 50.9%106 | -1.90.795 | -5.80.411 | +2.20.814 | -3.20.673 | -2.90.684 | +10.80.103 |
| Low fence | +9.10.226 | +9.30.221 | +10.30.165 | +1.90.795 | 52.8%89 | -3.90.594 | +4.00.669 | -1.40.864 | -1.00.889 | +12.70.069 |
| Single wall | +13.00.078 | +13.20.076 | +14.20.051 | +5.80.411 | +3.90.594 | 56.7%97 | +7.90.393 | +2.50.743 | +2.90.694 | +16.50.015 |
| Fence and open | +5.10.588 | +5.20.579 | +6.20.503 | -2.20.814 | -4.00.669 | -7.90.393 | 48.8%41 | -5.40.582 | -5.10.590 | +8.60.334 |
| Open | +10.50.188 | +10.60.184 | +11.60.138 | +3.20.673 | +1.40.864 | -2.50.743 | +5.40.582 | 54.2%72 | +0.30.967 | +14.00.058 |
| Rectangle | +10.20.175 | +10.30.171 | +11.30.124 | +2.90.684 | +1.00.889 | -2.90.694 | +5.10.590 | -0.30.967 | 53.9%91 | +13.70.047 |
| Octagon | -3.50.611 | -3.40.629 | -2.40.724 | -10.80.103 | -12.70.069 | -16.50.015 | -8.60.334 | -14.00.058 | -13.70.047 | 40.2%122 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted887
Win rate48.4%
Widest swing-8.4 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single wall | 54.4% | +6.1 | 0.223 | 90 | |
| Rectangle | 54.0% | +5.7 | 0.266 | 87 | |
| Low fence | 53.5% | +5.1 | 0.317 | 86 | |
| Open | 52.2% | +3.8 | 0.510 | 69 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 52.0% | +3.7 | 0.440 | 98 | |
| Fence and open | 48.7% | +0.3 | 0.964 | 39 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 45.1% | -3.2 | 0.537 | 82 | |
| Full fence | 44.4% | -3.9 | 0.459 | 81 | |
| Half fence | 42.4% | -6.0 | 0.226 | 92 | |
| Octagon | 40.0% | -8.4 | 0.054 | 115 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 9.66 on 9 df, p 0.378
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 44.4%81 | -0.70.931 | +2.00.786 | -7.60.311 | -9.10.243 | -10.00.192 | -4.30.660 | -7.70.345 | -9.60.215 | +4.40.535 |
| Breakable full fence | +0.70.931 | 45.1%82 | +2.70.717 | -6.90.355 | -8.40.278 | -9.30.222 | -3.60.711 | -7.00.388 | -8.90.247 | +5.10.473 |
| Half fence | -2.00.786 | -2.70.717 | 42.4%92 | -9.70.183 | -11.10.139 | -12.10.104 | -6.30.505 | -9.80.218 | -11.60.120 | +2.40.728 |
| Breakable half fence | +7.60.311 | +6.90.355 | +9.70.183 | 52.0%98 | -1.40.844 | -2.40.741 | +3.30.726 | -0.10.986 | -2.00.787 | +12.00.079 |
| Low fence | +9.10.243 | +8.40.278 | +11.10.139 | +1.40.844 | 53.5%86 | -0.90.899 | +4.80.621 | +1.30.871 | -0.50.944 | +13.50.058 |
| Single wall | +10.00.192 | +9.30.222 | +12.10.104 | +2.40.741 | +0.90.899 | 54.4%90 | +5.70.550 | +2.30.776 | +0.40.955 | +14.40.040 |
| Fence and open | +4.30.660 | +3.60.711 | +6.30.505 | -3.30.726 | -4.80.621 | -5.70.550 | 48.7%39 | -3.50.730 | -5.30.581 | +8.70.341 |
| Open | +7.70.345 | +7.00.388 | +9.80.218 | +0.10.986 | -1.30.871 | -2.30.776 | +3.50.730 | 52.2%69 | -1.90.818 | +12.20.108 |
| Rectangle | +9.60.215 | +8.90.247 | +11.60.120 | +2.00.787 | +0.50.944 | -0.40.955 | +5.30.581 | +1.90.818 | 54.0%87 | +14.00.048 |
| Octagon | -4.40.535 | -5.10.473 | -2.40.728 | -12.00.079 | -13.50.058 | -14.40.040 | -8.70.341 | -12.20.108 | -14.00.048 | 40.0%115 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted45
Win rate48.9%
Widest swing51.1 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 100.0% | +51.1 | 0.067 | 3 · | |
| Single wall | 85.7% | +36.8 | 0.034 | 7 · | |
| Fence and open | 50.0% | +1.1 | 0.974 | 2 · | |
| Half fence | 50.0% | +1.1 | 0.974 | 2 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +1.1 | 0.963 | 4 · | |
| Octagon | 42.9% | -6.0 | 0.728 | 7 · | |
| Breakable half fence | 37.5% | -11.4 | 0.477 | 8 · | |
| Full fence | 33.3% | -15.6 | 0.413 | 6 · | |
| Low fence | 33.3% | -15.6 | 0.577 | 3 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 0.0% | -48.9 | 0.080 | 3 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 11.20 on 9 df, p 0.262
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 33.3%6 | +33.30.257 | -16.70.673 | -4.20.872 | +0.01.000 | -52.40.053 | -16.70.673 | -66.70.058 | -16.70.598 | -9.50.725 |
| Breakable full fence | -33.30.257 | 0.0%3 | -50.00.171 | -37.50.214 | -33.30.273 | -85.70.011 | -50.00.171 | -100.00.014 | -50.00.147 | -42.90.175 |
| Half fence | +16.70.673 | +50.00.171 | 50.0%2 | +12.50.747 | +16.70.709 | -35.70.284 | +0.01.000 | -50.00.171 | +0.01.000 | +7.10.858 |
| Breakable half fence | +4.20.872 | +37.50.214 | -12.50.747 | 37.5%8 | +4.20.898 | -48.20.057 | -12.50.747 | -62.50.064 | -12.50.679 | -5.40.833 |
| Low fence | -0.01.000 | +33.30.273 | -16.70.709 | -4.20.898 | 33.3%3 | -52.40.098 | -16.70.709 | -66.70.083 | -16.70.659 | -9.50.778 |
| Single wall | +52.40.053 | +85.70.011 | +35.70.284 | +48.20.057 | +52.40.098 | 85.7%7 | +35.70.284 | -14.30.490 | +35.70.201 | +42.90.094 |
| Fence and open | +16.70.673 | +50.00.171 | -0.01.000 | +12.50.747 | +16.70.709 | -35.70.284 | 50.0%2 | -50.00.171 | +0.01.000 | +7.10.858 |
| Open | +66.70.058 | +100.00.014 | +50.00.171 | +62.50.064 | +66.70.083 | +14.30.490 | +50.00.171 | 100.0%3 | +50.00.147 | +57.10.091 |
| Rectangle | +16.70.598 | +50.00.147 | -0.01.000 | +12.50.679 | +16.70.659 | -35.70.201 | -0.01.000 | -50.00.147 | 50.0%4 | +7.10.819 |
| Octagon | +9.50.725 | +42.90.175 | -7.10.858 | +5.40.833 | +9.50.778 | -42.90.094 | -7.10.858 | -57.10.091 | -7.10.819 | 42.9%7 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.