Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Character Matchup Winrates
Akira vs Aoi
Matches counted3,383
Win rate50.2%
Widest swing7.8 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.1% | +7.8 | 0.002 | 353 | |
| Rectangle | 54.0% | +3.7 | 0.140 | 352 | |
| Octagon | 52.9% | +2.7 | 0.296 | 340 | |
| Breakable half fence | 51.2% | +1.0 | 0.707 | 320 | |
| Low fence | 49.9% | -0.4 | 0.876 | 347 | |
| Breakable full fence | 49.7% | -0.5 | 0.832 | 362 | |
| Single wall | 49.7% | -0.6 | 0.832 | 300 | |
| Half fence | 47.0% | -3.3 | 0.197 | 347 | |
| Open | 46.8% | -3.5 | 0.188 | 327 | |
| Fence and open | 43.9% | -6.3 | 0.088 | 173 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 17.38 on 9 df, p 0.043
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 58.1%353 | +8.30.025 | +11.10.003 | +6.80.076 | +8.20.029 | +8.40.032 | +14.10.002 | +11.30.003 | +4.10.273 | +5.10.174 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.30.025 | 49.7%362 | +2.80.464 | -1.50.691 | -0.10.972 | +0.10.988 | +5.80.210 | +2.90.441 | -4.30.255 | -3.20.394 |
| Half fence | -11.10.003 | -2.80.464 | 47.0%347 | -4.30.270 | -2.90.448 | -2.70.494 | +3.00.512 | +0.20.962 | -7.00.064 | -6.00.118 |
| Breakable half fence | -6.80.076 | +1.50.691 | +4.30.270 | 51.2%320 | +1.40.719 | +1.60.694 | +7.30.121 | +4.50.256 | -2.70.479 | -1.70.664 |
| Low fence | -8.20.029 | +0.10.972 | +2.90.448 | -1.40.719 | 49.9%347 | +0.20.962 | +5.90.203 | +3.10.426 | -4.10.276 | -3.10.419 |
| Single wall | -8.40.032 | -0.10.988 | +2.70.494 | -1.60.694 | -0.20.962 | 49.7%300 | +5.70.229 | +2.90.471 | -4.30.272 | -3.30.408 |
| Fence and open | -14.10.002 | -5.80.210 | -3.00.512 | -7.30.121 | -5.90.203 | -5.70.229 | 43.9%173 | -2.90.542 | -10.10.030 | -9.00.054 |
| Open | -11.30.003 | -2.90.441 | -0.20.962 | -4.50.256 | -3.10.426 | -2.90.471 | +2.90.542 | 46.8%327 | -7.20.061 | -6.20.112 |
| Rectangle | -4.10.273 | +4.30.255 | +7.00.064 | +2.70.479 | +4.10.276 | +4.30.272 | +10.10.030 | +7.20.061 | 54.0%352 | +1.00.785 |
| Octagon | -5.10.174 | +3.20.394 | +6.00.118 | +1.70.664 | +3.10.419 | +3.30.408 | +9.00.054 | +6.20.112 | -1.00.785 | 52.9%340 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted3,027
Win rate50.5%
Widest swing8.5 pts
Survive correction1
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 59.0% | +8.5 | 0.001 | 322 | |
| Octagon | 55.0% | +4.5 | 0.099 | 300 | |
| Rectangle | 54.3% | +3.8 | 0.143 | 324 | |
| Low fence | 50.2% | -0.3 | 0.909 | 301 | |
| Breakable full fence | 50.2% | -0.3 | 0.903 | 319 | |
| Breakable half fence | 49.8% | -0.7 | 0.814 | 297 | |
| Single wall | 49.6% | -0.9 | 0.770 | 264 | |
| Half fence | 47.0% | -3.5 | 0.190 | 315 | |
| Open | 46.4% | -4.0 | 0.144 | 295 | |
| Fence and open | 43.9% | -6.6 | 0.102 | 148 |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 19.60 on 9 df, p 0.021
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 59.0%322 | +8.80.024 | +12.00.002 | +9.20.022 | +8.80.027 | +9.40.023 | +15.10.002 | +12.60.002 | +4.70.230 | +4.00.313 |
| Breakable full fence | -8.80.024 | 50.2%319 | +3.20.424 | +0.30.936 | -0.00.998 | +0.50.898 | +6.20.209 | +3.70.357 | -4.20.291 | -4.80.228 |
| Half fence | -12.00.002 | -3.20.424 | 47.0%315 | -2.90.481 | -3.20.430 | -2.60.527 | +3.10.537 | +0.50.893 | -7.30.064 | -8.00.047 |
| Breakable half fence | -9.20.022 | -0.30.936 | +2.90.481 | 49.8%297 | -0.30.935 | +0.20.960 | +5.90.239 | +3.40.409 | -4.50.263 | -5.20.206 |
| Low fence | -8.80.027 | +0.00.998 | +3.20.430 | +0.30.935 | 50.2%301 | +0.60.897 | +6.20.213 | +3.70.363 | -4.20.299 | -4.80.235 |
| Single wall | -9.40.023 | -0.50.898 | +2.60.527 | -0.20.960 | -0.60.897 | 49.6%264 | +5.70.266 | +3.20.452 | -4.70.256 | -5.40.202 |
| Fence and open | -15.10.002 | -6.20.209 | -3.10.537 | -5.90.239 | -6.20.213 | -5.70.266 | 43.9%148 | -2.50.615 | -10.40.036 | -11.10.027 |
| Open | -12.60.002 | -3.70.357 | -0.50.893 | -3.40.409 | -3.70.363 | -3.20.452 | +2.50.615 | 46.4%295 | -7.90.050 | -8.60.037 |
| Rectangle | -4.70.230 | +4.20.291 | +7.30.064 | +4.50.263 | +4.20.299 | +4.70.256 | +10.40.036 | +7.90.050 | 54.3%324 | -0.70.865 |
| Octagon | -4.00.313 | +4.80.228 | +8.00.047 | +5.20.206 | +4.80.235 | +5.40.202 | +11.10.027 | +8.60.037 | +0.70.865 | 55.0%300 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.
Matches counted356
Win rate48.3%
Widest swing21.3 pts
Survive correction0
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23
Where it was fought
Akira's win rate on each stage, against this matchup everywhere| Stage | Stage effect | Win % | Change | p | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakable half fence | 69.6% | +21.3 | 0.035 | 23 · | |
| Open | 50.0% | +1.7 | 0.841 | 32 · | |
| Rectangle | 50.0% | +1.7 | 0.853 | 28 · | |
| Single wall | 50.0% | +1.7 | 0.831 | 36 · | |
| Full fence | 48.4% | +0.1 | 0.993 | 31 · | |
| Low fence | 47.8% | -0.5 | 0.943 | 46 · | |
| Half fence | 46.9% | -1.4 | 0.864 | 32 · | |
| Breakable full fence | 46.5% | -1.8 | 0.801 | 43 · | |
| Fence and open | 44.0% | -4.3 | 0.654 | 25 · | |
| Octagon | 37.5% | -10.8 | 0.146 | 40 · |
p < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested
Stage against stage
Akira's win rate on the row's stage, minus the same on the column'sAll ten shapes at once: chi-square 6.41 on 9 df, p 0.698
| Stage | Full | Break. full | Half | Break. half | Low | Wall | Mixed | Open | Rect | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full fence | 48.4%31 | +1.90.873 | +1.50.904 | -21.20.120 | +0.60.961 | -1.60.895 | +4.40.743 | -1.60.898 | -1.60.902 | +10.90.357 |
| Breakable full fence | -1.90.873 | 46.5%43 | -0.40.975 | -23.10.073 | -1.30.901 | -3.50.757 | +2.50.841 | -3.50.765 | -3.50.774 | +9.00.406 |
| Half fence | -1.50.904 | +0.40.975 | 46.9%32 | -22.70.094 | -0.90.934 | -3.10.797 | +2.90.829 | -3.10.802 | -3.10.809 | +9.40.423 |
| Breakable half fence | +21.20.120 | +23.10.073 | +22.70.094 | 69.6%23 | +21.70.087 | +19.60.138 | +25.60.074 | +19.60.147 | +19.60.158 | +32.10.014 |
| Low fence | -0.60.961 | +1.30.901 | +0.90.934 | -21.70.087 | 47.8%46 | -2.20.845 | +3.80.758 | -2.20.850 | -2.20.856 | +10.30.335 |
| Single wall | +1.60.895 | +3.50.757 | +3.10.797 | -19.60.138 | +2.20.845 | 50.0%36 | +6.00.644 | +0.01.000 | +0.01.000 | +12.50.272 |
| Fence and open | -4.40.743 | -2.50.841 | -2.90.829 | -25.60.074 | -3.80.758 | -6.00.644 | 44.0%25 | -6.00.653 | -6.00.662 | +6.50.603 |
| Open | +1.60.898 | +3.50.765 | +3.10.802 | -19.60.147 | +2.20.850 | -0.01.000 | +6.00.653 | 50.0%32 | +0.01.000 | +12.50.287 |
| Rectangle | +1.60.902 | +3.50.774 | +3.10.809 | -19.60.158 | +2.20.856 | -0.01.000 | +6.00.662 | -0.01.000 | 50.0%28 | +12.50.305 |
| Octagon | -10.90.357 | -9.00.406 | -9.40.423 | -32.10.014 | -10.30.335 | -12.50.272 | -6.50.603 | -12.50.287 | -12.50.305 | 37.5%40 |
Better on the row's stage — deeper at 5 and 10 pointsBetter on the column's stagep < 0.05 on its ownStill there after correcting for how many were tested· fewer than 80 decided matches on one side of the comparison
How significance is decided
- Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
- The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
- q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
- Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
- Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.