VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Wolf

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.2%
Standing#19 of 19 · tier D
Pick rate5.8%
Most picked#5 of 19
Matches counted42,739
Unique players321
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 54.6% — 235 wins, 195 losses54.6%AkiraAkira: 50.0% — 2,467 wins, 2,469 losses50.0%Lei FeiLei Fei: 49.4% — 878 wins, 898 losses49.4%JeffryJeffry: 49.4% — 1,320 wins, 1,351 losses49.4%GohGoh: 49.3% — 1,151 wins, 1,182 losses49.3%TakaTaka: 49.1% — 377 wins, 391 losses49.1%AoiAoi: 48.9% — 928 wins, 970 losses48.9%ShunShun: 48.5% — 1,054 wins, 1,121 losses48.5%PaiPai: 48.4% — 1,055 wins, 1,124 losses48.4%LionLion: 48.4% — 1,113 wins, 1,186 losses48.4%JackyJacky: 48.2% — 2,148 wins, 2,305 losses48.2%VanessaVanessa: 48.1% — 750 wins, 810 losses48.1%SarahSarah: 47.9% — 1,135 wins, 1,235 losses47.9%LauLau: 47.7% — 1,279 wins, 1,400 losses47.7%BradBrad: 47.3% — 1,087 wins, 1,213 losses47.3%JeanJean: 46.4% — 1,218 wins, 1,407 losses46.4%El BlazeEl Blaze: 46.2% — 771 wins, 898 losses46.2%KageKage: 45.6% — 1,343 wins, 1,603 losses45.6%EileenEileen: 42.4% — 285 wins, 387 losses42.4%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural54.65%235195430
Akira49.98%2,4672,4694,936
Lei Fei49.44%8788981,776
Jeffry49.42%1,3201,3512,671
Goh49.34%1,1511,1822,333
Taka49.09%377391768
Aoi48.89%9289701,898
Shun48.46%1,0541,1212,175
Pai48.42%1,0551,1242,179
Lion48.41%1,1131,1862,299
Jacky48.24%2,1482,3054,453
Vanessa48.08%7508101,560
Sarah47.89%1,1351,2352,370
Lau47.74%1,2791,4002,679
Brad47.26%1,0871,2132,300
Jean46.40%1,2181,4072,625
El Blaze46.20%7718981,669
Kage45.59%1,3431,6032,946
Eileen42.41%285387672

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 49.0% over 4,208 decided matches+0.8%OpenOpen: 49.0% over 4,236 decided matches+0.8%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.7% over 4,302 decided matches+0.6%RectangleRectangle: 48.5% over 4,404 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 48.1% over 4,488 decided matches-0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.1% over 4,281 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 47.5% over 4,132 decided matches-0.7%OctagonOctagon: 47.2% over 4,290 decided matches-0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 47.1% over 2,050 decided matches-1.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 47.0% over 4,249 decided matches-1.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural54.6%51616054445457694550
Akira50.0%49514950544949505448
Lei Fei49.4%43464844525148515352
Jeffry49.4%50534948514945484649
Goh49.3%52515055474348494949
Taka49.1%56594752424346535140
Aoi48.9%48514950534742464552
Shun48.5%54445343494649485040
Pai48.4%50475049494945485146
Lion48.4%46505146484741484855
Jacky48.2%51484747495251444849
Vanessa48.1%46535244424645514850
Sarah47.9%50484349475643444751
Lau47.7%46455246584748434646
Brad47.3%51514544464551404553
Jean46.4%40484543484352484654
El Blaze46.2%45424443524840484844
Kage45.6%44474544414245474950
Eileen42.4%44504247324234444445
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.7 to +0.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.513
No wallsNo walls: 48.5% over 12,576 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 48.0% over 26,014 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural54.6%5649
Akira50.0%5050
Lei Fei49.4%4852
Jeffry49.4%4950
Goh49.3%5146
Taka49.1%5242
Aoi48.9%4851
Shun48.5%4945
Pai48.4%4948
Lion48.4%4850
Jacky48.2%4850
Vanessa48.1%4946
Sarah47.9%4751
Lau47.7%4651
Brad47.3%4648
Jean46.4%4548
El Blaze46.2%4548
Kage45.6%4644
Eileen42.4%4539
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 16,983 decided matches+0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 49.5% over 17,295 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 49.3% over 17,354 decided matches+0.3%RectangleRectangle: 49.2% over 17,977 decided matches+0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.2% over 17,436 decided matches+0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 49.0% over 18,354 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 48.9% over 16,897 decided matches-0.2%OctagonOctagon: 48.4% over 17,590 decided matches-0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.4% over 16,860 decided matches-0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 48.3% over 8,421 decided matches-0.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural52.2%49555655485253574650
Akira50.0%49514950524949515249
Jeffry49.9%51515049525047484849
Lei Fei49.8%47494947525049515250
Pai49.7%50485151515049485049
Goh49.6%51524952484648495049
Aoi49.6%50515050524947484851
Shun49.6%52485447504849505045
Lion49.6%48505148495046495053
Taka49.4%50555052454650505044
Jacky49.1%50504948495051474949
Vanessa48.8%47514948464848505050
Sarah48.8%50494748485447474851
Lau48.5%47485047534949464848
Brad48.3%50514847484650444850
Jean48.1%45494847494749494752
El Blaze47.6%47454844514943494946
Kage47.4%47484748454646484750
Eileen46.1%46514547424643474847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.8 to +0.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.455
No wallsNo walls: 49.2% over 51,546 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 49.0% over 105,200 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural52.2%5350
Akira50.0%5050
Jeffry49.9%5050
Lei Fei49.8%4950
Pai49.7%5050
Goh49.6%5148
Aoi49.6%4951
Shun49.6%5048
Lion49.6%4950
Taka49.4%5145
Jacky49.1%4950
Vanessa48.8%4948
Sarah48.8%4851
Lau48.5%4850
Brad48.3%4848
Jean48.1%4749
El Blaze47.6%4748
Kage47.4%4847
Eileen46.1%4745
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia533,443
South America95,818
North America74,197
Europe12614
Middle East324
Oceania190
Not recorded141,137
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.2%
Standing#19 of 19 · tier D
Pick rate6.2%
Most picked#4 of 19
Matches counted38,942
Unique players301
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 54.2% — 225 wins, 190 losses54.2%AkiraAkira: 50.4% — 2,310 wins, 2,272 losses50.4%GohGoh: 49.5% — 1,102 wins, 1,123 losses49.5%Lei FeiLei Fei: 49.4% — 809 wins, 828 losses49.4%ShunShun: 49.3% — 971 wins, 999 losses49.3%TakaTaka: 49.1% — 330 wins, 342 losses49.1%JeffryJeffry: 49.0% — 1,234 wins, 1,282 losses49.0%AoiAoi: 48.9% — 899 wins, 939 losses48.9%JackyJacky: 48.1% — 1,977 wins, 2,130 losses48.1%PaiPai: 47.8% — 961 wins, 1,048 losses47.8%SarahSarah: 47.7% — 1,038 wins, 1,137 losses47.7%LauLau: 47.6% — 1,106 wins, 1,216 losses47.6%VanessaVanessa: 47.5% — 639 wins, 706 losses47.5%LionLion: 47.4% — 957 wins, 1,063 losses47.4%BradBrad: 47.2% — 943 wins, 1,055 losses47.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 47.0% — 693 wins, 782 losses47.0%JeanJean: 46.2% — 1,166 wins, 1,356 losses46.2%KageKage: 45.9% — 1,173 wins, 1,381 losses45.9%EileenEileen: 40.9% — 229 wins, 331 losses40.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural54.22%225190415
Akira50.41%2,3102,2724,582
Goh49.53%1,1021,1232,225
Lei Fei49.42%8098281,637
Shun49.29%9719991,970
Taka49.11%330342672
Jeffry49.05%1,2341,2822,516
Aoi48.91%8999391,838
Jacky48.14%1,9772,1304,107
Pai47.83%9611,0482,009
Sarah47.72%1,0381,1372,175
Lau47.63%1,1061,2162,322
Vanessa47.51%6397061,345
Lion47.38%9571,0632,020
Brad47.20%9431,0551,998
El Blaze46.98%6937821,475
Jean46.23%1,1661,3562,522
Kage45.93%1,1731,3812,554
Eileen40.89%229331560

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 49.3% over 3,875 decided matches+1.1%OpenOpen: 48.8% over 3,868 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.8% over 3,936 decided matches+0.7%RectangleRectangle: 48.6% over 3,961 decided matches+0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.1% over 3,894 decided matches-0.0%Full fenceFull fence: 47.9% over 4,084 decided matches-0.3%Fence and openFence and open: 47.6% over 1,864 decided matches-0.6%OctagonOctagon: 47.5% over 3,915 decided matches-0.7%Single wallSingle wall: 47.2% over 3,732 decided matches-1.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 46.8% over 3,885 decided matches-1.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural54.2%51616053415452684650
Akira50.4%49514950544951505448
Goh49.5%53514955464447495049
Lei Fei49.4%42444846545247515550
Shun49.3%54465444504752495241
Taka49.1%50604750474345535141
Jeffry49.0%50534947514745484647
Aoi48.9%48514950544643464552
Jacky48.1%50484648485151454948
Pai47.8%52475047494946484845
Sarah47.7%50464348485743444751
Lau47.6%45475345584646444647
Vanessa47.5%44515142434949504651
Lion47.4%42495045464441474954
Brad47.2%52504645464351414454
El Blaze47.0%46434743534740495045
Jean46.2%39484543484252484654
Kage45.9%45464543424148485050
Eileen40.9%41504243344231424340
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.7 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.738
No wallsNo walls: 48.4% over 11,475 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 48.0% over 23,675 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural54.2%5648
Akira50.4%5150
Goh49.5%5147
Lei Fei49.4%4752
Shun49.3%5046
Taka49.1%5244
Jeffry49.0%4949
Aoi48.9%4851
Jacky48.1%4849
Pai47.8%4847
Sarah47.7%4652
Lau47.6%4750
Vanessa47.5%4747
Lion47.4%4748
Brad47.2%4648
El Blaze47.0%4648
Jean46.2%4548
Kage45.9%4644
Eileen40.9%4439
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 15,936 decided matches+0.6%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 15,539 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 49.4% over 15,845 decided matches+0.3%RectangleRectangle: 49.3% over 16,176 decided matches+0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.2% over 15,868 decided matches+0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 48.9% over 16,692 decided matches-0.2%Single wallSingle wall: 48.7% over 15,271 decided matches-0.4%OctagonOctagon: 48.6% over 16,046 decided matches-0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 48.5% over 7,658 decided matches-0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.3% over 15,421 decided matches-0.8%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural52.1%49555655465251574750
Akira50.3%50514950525050515249
Shun49.9%52485447504851505145
Lei Fei49.8%46484948525148505349
Jeffry49.7%51515049514947484849
Goh49.6%51524952484747495149
Aoi49.6%50514950524948484850
Pai49.4%51475150505049484949
Taka49.4%49564951474549515045
Jacky49.1%50504949495051484949
Lion49.1%47505147484845495153
Sarah48.8%50484748485447474851
Vanessa48.6%46514847475150504850
Brad48.3%50504848494550454851
Lau48.3%47485045534948464848
El Blaze48.1%48464944514944495046
Jean48.0%45504747504649494752
Kage47.7%47484847464547494850
Eileen45.6%45514545444541464845
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.9 to +0.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.655
No wallsNo walls: 49.3% over 47,052 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 49.0% over 95,742 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural52.1%5349
Akira50.3%5050
Shun49.9%5048
Lei Fei49.8%4951
Jeffry49.7%5050
Goh49.6%5148
Aoi49.6%4950
Pai49.4%4950
Taka49.4%5146
Jacky49.1%4950
Lion49.1%4950
Sarah48.8%4851
Vanessa48.6%4849
Brad48.3%4848
Lau48.3%4850
El Blaze48.1%4849
Jean48.0%4749
Kage47.7%4847
Eileen45.6%4745
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia329,802
South America95,800
North America64,141
Europe11525
Middle East324
Oceania190
Not recorded121,070
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.2%
Standing#13 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate3.4%
Most picked#13 of 19
Matches counted3,797
Unique players33
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 66.7% — 10 wins, 5 losses66.7%LionLion: 55.9% — 156 wins, 123 losses55.9%JeffryJeffry: 55.5% — 86 wins, 69 losses55.5%PaiPai: 55.3% — 94 wins, 76 losses55.3%VanessaVanessa: 51.6% — 111 wins, 104 losses51.6%JeanJean: 50.5% — 52 wins, 51 losses50.5%EileenEileen: 50.0% — 56 wins, 56 losses50.0%SarahSarah: 49.7% — 97 wins, 98 losses49.7%Lei FeiLei Fei: 49.6% — 69 wins, 70 losses49.6%JackyJacky: 49.4% — 171 wins, 175 losses49.4%TakaTaka: 49.0% — 47 wins, 49 losses49.0%LauLau: 48.5% — 173 wins, 184 losses48.5%AoiAoi: 48.3% — 29 wins, 31 losses48.3%BradBrad: 47.7% — 144 wins, 158 losses47.7%GohGoh: 45.4% — 49 wins, 59 losses45.4%AkiraAkira: 44.4% — 157 wins, 197 losses44.4%KageKage: 43.4% — 170 wins, 222 losses43.4%ShunShun: 40.5% — 83 wins, 122 losses40.5%El BlazeEl Blaze: 40.2% — 78 wins, 116 losses40.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural66.67%10515
Lion55.91%156123279
Jeffry55.48%8669155
Pai55.29%9476170
Vanessa51.63%111104215
Jean50.49%5251103
Eileen50.00%5656112
Sarah49.74%9798195
Lei Fei49.64%6970139
Jacky49.42%171175346
Taka48.96%474996
Lau48.46%173184357
Aoi48.33%293160
Brad47.68%144158302
Goh45.37%4959108
Akira44.35%157197354
Kage43.37%170222392
Shun40.49%83122205
El Blaze40.21%78116194

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Full fenceFull fence: 50.7% over 404 decided matches+2.5%OpenOpen: 50.3% over 368 decided matches+2.0%Single wallSingle wall: 50.2% over 400 decided matches+2.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.9% over 364 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.8% over 366 decided matches-0.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 47.8% over 387 decided matches-0.5%RectangleRectangle: 47.2% over 443 decided matches-1.1%Low fenceLow fence: 45.6% over 333 decided matches-2.6%OctagonOctagon: 45.1% over 375 decided matches-3.2%Fence and openFence and open: 41.9% over 186 decided matches-6.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural66.7%···67100·10010043·
Lion55.9%66525756576445563160
Jeffry55.5%40605064537043465561
Pai55.3%41536267534838508364
Vanessa51.6%56626452403517636345
Jean50.5%60386050407050564858
Eileen50.0%62504364143844505070
Sarah49.7%67594254335243425060
Lei Fei49.6%547545362222100574465
Jacky49.4%61485424505456434754
Taka49.0%83504762114650445020
Lau48.5%52234957625664404638
Aoi48.3%455075501760038·75
Brad47.7%45544239485750355348
Goh45.4%31446050642060574740
Akira44.4%40434744544729425344
Kage43.4%35544352354727403749
Shun40.5%52144836384129483231
El Blaze40.2%40362538475040424242
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -4.8 to +3.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.856
No wallsNo walls: 48.9% over 1,101 decided matches+0.6%WallsWalls: 47.9% over 2,339 decided matches-0.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural66.7%55100
Lion55.9%5460
Jeffry55.5%5162
Pai55.3%5854
Vanessa51.6%5940
Jean50.5%4956
Eileen50.0%5343
Sarah49.7%5246
Lei Fei49.6%4943
Jacky49.4%4753
Taka49.0%5730
Lau48.5%4652
Aoi48.3%4852
Brad47.7%4551
Goh45.4%4739
Akira44.4%4548
Kage43.4%4344
Shun40.5%4137
El Blaze40.2%3746
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 50.3% over 1,626 decided matches+1.4%Full fenceFull fence: 50.2% over 1,662 decided matches+1.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 1,444 decided matches+0.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.4% over 1,568 decided matches+0.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.8% over 1,439 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 48.8% over 1,509 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 48.2% over 1,359 decided matches-0.8%RectangleRectangle: 48.2% over 1,801 decided matches-0.8%OctagonOctagon: 46.6% over 1,544 decided matches-2.3%Fence and openFence and open: 46.5% over 763 decided matches-2.4%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural54.8%···5486·756041·
Jeffry53.3%49554959576248485054
Lion53.2%58505651545950514254
Pai53.1%44525260544948516955
Vanessa50.4%53545651463632555949
Aoi50.2%4556595635594042·56
Lau50.1%49405059575256464943
Lei Fei49.7%53614343414075574758
Jean49.6%57405952465550524656
Taka49.6%57505260265054475033
Goh49.3%47535646563855594748
Jacky49.1%55505136475356444949
Eileen48.4%55554254204650494954
Sarah48.3%58544746434843454852
Brad47.8%46544741475449425046
Akira47.3%44485047524740465247
Shun47.0%53355348464939464442
Kage45.8%46514649444736424050
El Blaze44.1%45433743505141424442
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.4 to +1.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.761
No wallsNo walls: 49.1% over 4,494 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 48.8% over 9,458 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural54.8%4786
Jeffry53.3%5157
Lion53.2%5256
Pai53.1%5452
Vanessa50.4%5444
Aoi50.2%4953
Lau50.1%4950
Lei Fei49.7%4948
Jean49.6%4952
Taka49.6%5340
Goh49.3%5046
Jacky49.1%4850
Eileen48.4%5043
Sarah48.3%4947
Brad47.8%4749
Akira47.3%4848
Shun47.0%4846
Kage45.8%4547
El Blaze44.1%4347
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia143,641
North America1556
Europe1189
South America618
Not recorded1167