VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Vanessa

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.7%
Standing#18 of 19 · tier D
Pick rate3.9%
Most picked#16 of 19
Matches counted29,209
Unique players202
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeffryJeffry: 52.6% — 897 wins, 809 losses52.6%WolfWolf: 51.9% — 810 wins, 750 losses51.9%GohGoh: 51.7% — 844 wins, 789 losses51.7%AkiraAkira: 49.8% — 1,586 wins, 1,598 losses49.8%JackyJacky: 49.6% — 1,498 wins, 1,524 losses49.6%JeanJean: 49.2% — 808 wins, 833 losses49.2%ShunShun: 48.9% — 768 wins, 802 losses48.9%AoiAoi: 48.8% — 599 wins, 629 losses48.8%DuralDural: 48.6% — 107 wins, 113 losses48.6%SarahSarah: 48.4% — 792 wins, 845 losses48.4%PaiPai: 48.3% — 629 wins, 673 losses48.3%BradBrad: 47.8% — 746 wins, 814 losses47.8%KageKage: 47.7% — 928 wins, 1,018 losses47.7%TakaTaka: 47.5% — 278 wins, 307 losses47.5%Lei FeiLei Fei: 46.9% — 574 wins, 651 losses46.9%LionLion: 46.4% — 851 wins, 985 losses46.4%LauLau: 45.7% — 849 wins, 1,009 losses45.7%El BlazeEl Blaze: 45.2% — 455 wins, 551 losses45.2%EileenEileen: 41.6% — 204 wins, 286 losses41.6%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jeffry52.58%8978091,706
Wolf51.92%8107501,560
Goh51.68%8447891,633
Akira49.81%1,5861,5983,184
Jacky49.57%1,4981,5243,022
Jean49.24%8088331,641
Shun48.92%7688021,570
Aoi48.78%5996291,228
Dural48.64%107113220
Sarah48.38%7928451,637
Pai48.31%6296731,302
Brad47.82%7468141,560
Kage47.69%9281,0181,946
Taka47.52%278307585
Lei Fei46.86%5746511,225
Lion46.35%8519851,836
Lau45.69%8491,0091,858
El Blaze45.23%4555511,006
Eileen41.63%204286490

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 51.0% over 2,981 decided matches+2.3%Full fenceFull fence: 50.1% over 2,847 decided matches+1.4%Fence and openFence and open: 50.1% over 1,390 decided matches+1.4%Single wallSingle wall: 49.7% over 2,927 decided matches+1.0%RectangleRectangle: 49.3% over 2,898 decided matches+0.6%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.6% over 2,950 decided matches-0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.5% over 2,899 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 47.6% over 2,814 decided matches-1.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 46.7% over 2,942 decided matches-2.0%OctagonOctagon: 46.3% over 3,103 decided matches-2.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jeffry52.6%52545653535357474753
Wolf51.9%54474856585455495250
Goh51.7%51535646565654505544
Akira49.8%55524749534952465246
Jacky49.6%50475143575247465153
Jean49.2%54514848504953454650
Shun48.9%50554643465442494557
Aoi48.8%56495049494653474946
Dural48.6%48755239423262365857
Sarah48.4%50474741535352434950
Pai48.3%53484151454646475348
Brad47.8%43515948485243504640
Kage47.7%41454347545145524847
Taka47.5%44445242554274434952
Lei Fei46.9%51434446505254484641
Lion46.4%51494243504460394545
Lau45.7%45425043444649445445
El Blaze45.2%48414745434736474444
Eileen41.6%33365448433938414344
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.7 to +0.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.235
No wallsNo walls: 49.5% over 8,722 decided matches+0.8%WallsWalls: 48.2% over 17,639 decided matches-0.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jeffry52.6%5153
Wolf51.9%5154
Goh51.7%5253
Akira49.8%5049
Jacky49.6%4854
Jean49.2%4950
Shun48.9%4853
Aoi48.8%5047
Dural48.6%5043
Sarah48.4%4652
Pai48.3%4946
Brad47.8%4947
Kage47.7%4651
Taka47.5%4649
Lei Fei46.9%4647
Lion46.4%4547
Lau45.7%4645
El Blaze45.2%4644
Eileen41.6%4242
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 50.4% over 12,218 decided matches+1.0%Fence and openFence and open: 50.0% over 5,739 decided matches+0.7%Full fenceFull fence: 49.9% over 11,658 decided matches+0.6%RectangleRectangle: 49.6% over 11,855 decided matches+0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 49.5% over 12,006 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.3% over 11,626 decided matches-0.0%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.1% over 11,855 decided matches-0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.9% over 11,606 decided matches-0.4%OpenOpen: 48.8% over 11,488 decided matches-0.5%OctagonOctagon: 48.3% over 12,762 decided matches-1.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jeffry51.5%51525352535155485051
Wolf51.2%53495152545252505050
Goh50.8%52515148535453505246
Shun50.2%51534947485247504955
Jacky50.0%51485048535149475052
Akira49.9%51514950514952485148
Jean49.8%51504949505052494850
Pai49.2%51494551494749495149
Sarah49.0%49494846525151475049
Aoi49.0%53505050494750484847
Dural48.8%53615246434152435155
Brad48.6%46505550495145494745
Kage48.6%46474649524947514948
Lei Fei48.4%52474649495251474746
Lion48.3%49514547504754474747
Lau47.6%47464947474748475148
El Blaze47.4%49444749464742484946
Taka47.1%43455043504461454750
Eileen45.9%41445248494442484745
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +0.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.407
No wallsNo walls: 49.6% over 35,712 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 49.2% over 71,362 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jeffry51.5%5152
Wolf51.2%5152
Goh50.8%5151
Shun50.2%5051
Jacky50.0%4952
Akira49.9%5049
Jean49.8%5050
Pai49.2%4948
Sarah49.0%4851
Aoi49.0%5048
Dural48.8%5145
Brad48.6%4948
Kage48.6%4849
Lei Fei48.4%4849
Lion48.3%4848
Lau47.6%4847
El Blaze47.4%4846
Taka47.1%4648
Eileen45.9%4646
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1720,190
South America76,275
North America172,271
Europe18317
Middle East190
Oceania180
Not recorded101,308
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.9%
Standing#11 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate3.5%
Most picked#17 of 19
Matches counted22,917
Unique players187
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
TakaTaka: 52.8% — 198 wins, 177 losses52.8%WolfWolf: 52.5% — 706 wins, 639 losses52.5%GohGoh: 51.6% — 661 wins, 620 losses51.6%JeffryJeffry: 51.5% — 774 wins, 728 losses51.5%JackyJacky: 51.4% — 1,161 wins, 1,097 losses51.4%AkiraAkira: 51.3% — 1,290 wins, 1,225 losses51.3%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.0% — 463 wins, 444 losses51.0%JeanJean: 50.0% — 743 wins, 744 losses50.0%AoiAoi: 49.9% — 557 wins, 560 losses49.9%ShunShun: 49.1% — 578 wins, 599 losses49.1%KageKage: 49.0% — 711 wins, 740 losses49.0%SarahSarah: 49.0% — 658 wins, 686 losses49.0%PaiPai: 48.8% — 527 wins, 552 losses48.8%BradBrad: 48.2% — 577 wins, 619 losses48.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 48.1% — 371 wins, 400 losses48.1%LionLion: 47.3% — 588 wins, 656 losses47.3%DuralDural: 47.2% — 94 wins, 105 losses47.2%LauLau: 46.9% — 627 wins, 710 losses46.9%EileenEileen: 43.1% — 143 wins, 189 losses43.1%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Taka52.80%198177375
Wolf52.49%7066391,345
Goh51.60%6616201,281
Jeffry51.53%7747281,502
Jacky51.42%1,1611,0972,258
Akira51.29%1,2901,2252,515
Lei Fei51.05%463444907
Jean49.97%7437441,487
Aoi49.87%5575601,117
Shun49.11%5785991,177
Kage49.00%7117401,451
Sarah48.96%6586861,344
Pai48.84%5275521,079
Brad48.24%5776191,196
El Blaze48.12%371400771
Lion47.27%5886561,244
Dural47.24%94105199
Lau46.90%6277101,337
Eileen43.07%143189332

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 53.0% over 2,366 decided matches+3.1%Full fenceFull fence: 51.9% over 2,244 decided matches+2.1%Fence and openFence and open: 50.5% over 1,097 decided matches+0.6%Single wallSingle wall: 50.3% over 2,278 decided matches+0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.0% over 2,285 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.0% over 2,296 decided matches+0.1%RectangleRectangle: 50.0% over 2,269 decided matches+0.1%OpenOpen: 48.6% over 2,253 decided matches-1.2%OctagonOctagon: 48.0% over 2,448 decided matches-1.9%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 47.3% over 2,238 decided matches-2.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Taka52.8%50515347625580505055
Wolf52.5%56494958575151505449
Goh51.6%52515749595451505542
Jeffry51.5%51555550535356474750
Jacky51.4%52495144605446485155
Akira51.3%57545150515055485646
Lei Fei51.0%53475048545757535144
Jean50.0%54524949525053464850
Aoi49.9%57505051534755494945
Shun49.1%47574740485545484063
Kage49.0%44454148585347555046
Sarah49.0%51474943555248444852
Pai48.8%56474249484546495148
Brad48.2%47515949465248504442
El Blaze48.1%51425649444829504752
Lion47.3%54514041554461384747
Dural47.2%45735338412150385858
Lau46.9%45455439484849455646
Eileen43.1%42395253433341503745
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.8 to +0.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.380
No wallsNo walls: 50.7% over 6,897 decided matches+0.8%WallsWalls: 49.5% over 13,780 decided matches-0.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Taka52.8%5057
Wolf52.5%5353
Goh51.6%5253
Jeffry51.5%5152
Jacky51.4%4957
Akira51.3%5249
Lei Fei51.0%5051
Jean50.0%5051
Aoi49.9%5148
Shun49.1%4755
Kage49.0%4752
Sarah49.0%4753
Pai48.8%4947
Brad48.2%5046
El Blaze48.1%4947
Lion47.3%4549
Dural47.2%5040
Lau46.9%4747
Eileen43.1%4540
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 51.4% over 9,711 decided matches+1.4%Full fenceFull fence: 50.9% over 9,167 decided matches+1.0%Fence and openFence and open: 50.2% over 4,539 decided matches+0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 9,344 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.1% over 9,010 decided matches+0.1%RectangleRectangle: 50.0% over 9,298 decided matches+0.0%Single wallSingle wall: 49.8% over 9,340 decided matches-0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.3% over 8,860 decided matches-0.6%OpenOpen: 49.3% over 9,215 decided matches-0.7%OctagonOctagon: 49.0% over 10,039 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf51.4%54495253534950505250
Goh50.9%53505249545351505346
Jeffry50.9%50525250535155494949
Jacky50.8%52505148555248485053
Akira50.7%53525051504955495349
Lei Fei50.5%53494950525552514948
Shun50.3%50545046485249504658
Jean50.2%51515150515052494950
Taka50.2%48495146525263494851
Pai49.7%52494650504849505049
Aoi49.6%53515051504850494846
Sarah49.3%49494947535050475050
Kage49.2%47474649535048525048
Brad48.8%48505551495146494646
El Blaze48.8%50455251464840495149
Lion48.7%50524446534754464749
Lau48.3%47475247494849475348
Dural48.1%51615345423544455156
Eileen47.0%47445153504245524346
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +0.5); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.711
No wallsNo walls: 50.2% over 28,266 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 49.9% over 55,718 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf51.4%5251
Goh50.9%5151
Jeffry50.9%5051
Jacky50.8%5053
Akira50.7%5149
Lei Fei50.5%5051
Shun50.3%4953
Jean50.2%5050
Taka50.2%4952
Pai49.7%5049
Aoi49.6%5048
Sarah49.3%4951
Kage49.2%4950
Brad48.8%5049
El Blaze48.8%5048
Lion48.7%4750
Lau48.3%4948
Dural48.1%5144
Eileen47.0%4845
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1714,449
South America76,275
North America171,768
Europe16249
Middle East190
Oceania180
Not recorded141,030
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate44.4%
Standing#19 of 19 · tier D
Pick rate5.8%
Most picked#6 of 19
Matches counted6,292
Unique players30
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 61.9% — 13 wins, 8 losses61.9%JeffryJeffry: 60.3% — 123 wins, 81 losses60.3%GohGoh: 52.0% — 183 wins, 169 losses52.0%WolfWolf: 48.4% — 104 wins, 111 losses48.4%ShunShun: 48.4% — 190 wins, 203 losses48.4%BradBrad: 46.4% — 169 wins, 195 losses46.4%PaiPai: 45.7% — 102 wins, 121 losses45.7%SarahSarah: 45.7% — 134 wins, 159 losses45.7%LionLion: 44.4% — 263 wins, 329 losses44.4%AkiraAkira: 44.2% — 296 wins, 373 losses44.2%JackyJacky: 44.1% — 337 wins, 427 losses44.1%KageKage: 43.8% — 217 wins, 278 losses43.8%LauLau: 42.6% — 222 wins, 299 losses42.6%JeanJean: 42.2% — 65 wins, 89 losses42.2%EileenEileen: 38.6% — 61 wins, 97 losses38.6%TakaTaka: 38.1% — 80 wins, 130 losses38.1%AoiAoi: 37.8% — 42 wins, 69 losses37.8%El BlazeEl Blaze: 35.7% — 84 wins, 151 losses35.7%Lei FeiLei Fei: 34.9% — 111 wins, 207 losses34.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural61.90%13821
Jeffry60.29%12381204
Goh51.99%183169352
Wolf48.37%104111215
Shun48.35%190203393
Brad46.43%169195364
Pai45.74%102121223
Sarah45.73%134159293
Lion44.43%263329592
Akira44.25%296373669
Jacky44.11%337427764
Kage43.84%217278495
Lau42.61%222299521
Jean42.21%6589154
Eileen38.61%6197158
Taka38.10%80130210
Aoi37.84%4269111
El Blaze35.74%84151235
Lei Fei34.91%111207318

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 48.5% over 293 decided matches+4.0%Single wallSingle wall: 47.6% over 649 decided matches+3.2%RectangleRectangle: 46.7% over 629 decided matches+2.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 44.6% over 704 decided matches+0.2%OpenOpen: 43.7% over 561 decided matches-0.8%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 43.6% over 654 decided matches-0.9%Low fenceLow fence: 43.4% over 615 decided matches-1.0%Full fenceFull fence: 43.3% over 603 decided matches-1.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 43.0% over 614 decided matches-1.4%OctagonOctagon: 40.3% over 655 decided matches-4.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural61.9%100100505050671000·50
Jeffry60.3%67506568505565485076
Goh52.0%46605041466767505249
Wolf48.4%44383648606583373755
Shun48.4%62514349424935516243
Brad46.4%32505844545332505730
Pai45.7%3950365795047335947
Sarah45.7%41473632465869425543
Lion44.4%45444647424558444338
Akira44.2%46453648594440353943
Jacky44.1%44374841424847375046
Kage43.8%34434946424739443950
Lau42.6%47353750333747395143
Jean42.2%603936433145·412947
Eileen38.6%1332584144620255238
Taka38.1%29325229452850304741
Aoi37.8%25405533233633255654
El Blaze35.7%36402332414364363321
Lei Fei34.9%45362235394344293232
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -4.4 to +1.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.711
No wallsNo walls: 45.0% over 1,825 decided matches+0.6%WallsWalls: 43.6% over 3,859 decided matches-0.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural61.9%5758
Jeffry60.3%5763
Goh52.0%5053
Wolf48.4%4160
Shun48.4%5244
Brad46.4%4847
Pai45.7%4839
Sarah45.7%4348
Lion44.4%4542
Akira44.2%4149
Jacky44.1%4345
Kage43.8%4346
Lau42.6%4437
Jean42.2%4141
Eileen38.6%3749
Taka38.1%3736
Aoi37.8%3938
El Blaze35.7%3237
Lei Fei34.9%3438
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 49.2% over 1,200 decided matches+2.2%Single wallSingle wall: 48.6% over 2,666 decided matches+1.6%RectangleRectangle: 48.2% over 2,557 decided matches+1.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 47.6% over 2,746 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 47.0% over 2,273 decided matches-0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 46.7% over 2,616 decided matches-0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 46.4% over 2,507 decided matches-0.7%Full fenceFull fence: 46.1% over 2,491 decided matches-0.9%OctagonOctagon: 45.6% over 2,723 decided matches-1.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 45.5% over 2,511 decided matches-1.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jeffry56.1%59505764505457475268
Dural55.6%1006043574759750·50
Goh50.5%49534745495761505048
Shun49.8%54504549465043516148
Wolf49.6%47464449546468454151
Brad48.0%41515648485242475441
Sarah47.7%44474439495559475248
Jacky47.6%47445048464951454949
Lion47.4%47484950464655494743
Kage46.8%42464849464743494549
Akira46.8%46494248554944444545
Pai46.6%43503952274647425548
Lau45.8%48434148414447464947
Jean45.6%534438464450·473649
Eileen43.6%29445442445214395244
El Blaze42.8%42433444454550444336
Aoi42.7%35445139363940354854
Lei Fei42.5%48433544444750354341
Taka41.2%32374935463646364645
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.8 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.3 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
No wallsNo walls: 47.4% over 7,446 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 46.6% over 15,644 decided matches-0.4%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jeffry56.1%5459
Dural55.6%5254
Goh50.5%4951
Shun49.8%5248
Wolf49.6%4656
Brad48.0%4947
Sarah47.7%4650
Jacky47.6%4748
Lion47.4%4845
Kage46.8%4747
Akira46.8%4550
Pai46.6%4842
Lau45.8%4643
Jean45.6%4448
Eileen43.6%4347
El Blaze42.8%4143
Aoi42.7%4343
Lei Fei42.5%4245
Taka41.2%4041
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia85,741
North America2503
Europe1468
South America190
Not recorded4278