VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Taka

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate53.6%
Standing#1 of 19 · tier S
Pick rate1.8%
Most picked#18 of 19
Matches counted13,618
Unique players182
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
AoiAoi: 58.7% — 284 wins, 200 losses58.7%LionLion: 57.9% — 412 wins, 300 losses57.9%BradBrad: 56.7% — 431 wins, 329 losses56.7%AkiraAkira: 55.7% — 838 wins, 666 losses55.7%GohGoh: 55.6% — 398 wins, 318 losses55.6%KageKage: 55.4% — 581 wins, 468 losses55.4%DuralDural: 54.7% — 88 wins, 73 losses54.7%JackyJacky: 54.5% — 727 wins, 607 losses54.5%SarahSarah: 54.2% — 347 wins, 293 losses54.2%ShunShun: 54.1% — 425 wins, 361 losses54.1%PaiPai: 53.0% — 304 wins, 270 losses53.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 52.8% — 264 wins, 236 losses52.8%VanessaVanessa: 52.5% — 307 wins, 278 losses52.5%JeffryJeffry: 51.2% — 343 wins, 327 losses51.2%WolfWolf: 50.9% — 391 wins, 377 losses50.9%LauLau: 50.7% — 463 wins, 450 losses50.7%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.6% — 278 wins, 294 losses48.6%EileenEileen: 46.8% — 115 wins, 131 losses46.8%JeanJean: 46.6% — 300 wins, 344 losses46.6%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Aoi58.68%284200484
Lion57.87%412300712
Brad56.71%431329760
Akira55.72%8386661,504
Goh55.59%398318716
Kage55.39%5814681,049
Dural54.66%8873161
Jacky54.50%7276071,334
Sarah54.22%347293640
Shun54.07%425361786
Pai52.96%304270574
El Blaze52.80%264236500
Vanessa52.48%307278585
Jeffry51.19%343327670
Wolf50.91%391377768
Lau50.71%463450913
Lei Fei48.60%278294572
Eileen46.75%115131246
Jean46.58%300344644

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 57.1% over 1,402 decided matches+3.5%Low fenceLow fence: 56.8% over 1,247 decided matches+3.2%Fence and openFence and open: 56.7% over 658 decided matches+3.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 53.7% over 1,412 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 53.5% over 1,353 decided matches-0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 53.1% over 1,374 decided matches-0.5%RectangleRectangle: 52.5% over 1,352 decided matches-1.1%OpenOpen: 51.9% over 1,393 decided matches-1.7%OctagonOctagon: 51.7% over 1,352 decided matches-1.9%Full fenceFull fence: 50.6% over 1,391 decided matches-3.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Aoi58.7%71445950635550636263
Lion57.9%53585347587171536153
Brad56.7%50575662745667574649
Akira55.7%50555960556258525551
Goh55.6%60575559546555555149
Kage55.4%52355060576750556156
Dural54.7%45593355615064605067
Jacky54.5%48635353626159485450
Sarah54.2%47595857645546525649
Shun54.1%42594650505363585555
Pai53.0%67575835564968384957
El Blaze52.8%51495974644770494842
Vanessa52.5%56564858455826575148
Jeffry51.2%53495153604448564854
Wolf50.9%44415348585754474960
Lau50.7%44555949505148564546
Lei Fei48.6%41415457565753444253
Eileen46.8%48423235595375505050
Jean46.6%48564549404252295346
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-2.7 pts behind walls (95% interval -4.8 to -0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.118
No wallsNo walls: 55.2% over 4,042 decided matches+1.6%WallsWalls: 52.5% over 8,234 decided matches-1.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Aoi58.7%5860
Lion57.9%5461
Brad56.7%5459
Akira55.7%5556
Goh55.6%5657
Kage55.4%5360
Dural54.7%5160
Jacky54.5%5357
Sarah54.2%5555
Shun54.1%5253
Pai53.0%5155
El Blaze52.8%5549
Vanessa52.5%5451
Jeffry51.2%5253
Wolf50.9%4858
Lau50.7%5149
Lei Fei48.6%4655
Eileen46.8%4353
Jean46.6%4843
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 54.3% over 5,626 decided matches+2.3%Low fenceLow fence: 54.2% over 5,014 decided matches+2.2%Fence and openFence and open: 53.1% over 2,687 decided matches+1.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.8% over 5,625 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 51.5% over 5,619 decided matches-0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.3% over 5,144 decided matches-0.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.3% over 5,434 decided matches-0.7%RectangleRectangle: 51.2% over 5,498 decided matches-0.8%Full fenceFull fence: 51.0% over 5,639 decided matches-0.9%OctagonOctagon: 50.9% over 5,486 decided matches-1.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Aoi54.4%61475349575152595656
Lion53.9%52535150546060515552
Shun53.6%48575150535156555655
Brad53.4%49545453645359534949
Kage53.3%51424956556150525555
Akira53.1%51525554545755505252
Vanessa52.9%57555057505639555350
Goh52.8%55535355526151515150
Sarah52.0%47545552575446525349
Jacky52.0%51545051555756485150
Jeffry51.7%53495253575050525053
Dural51.4%49534349554553505262
Pai51.4%57535544535060444953
El Blaze51.4%53515460544956514845
Wolf50.6%50455048555450505056
Lau50.5%48505449535047544749
Eileen48.8%52464240505362515052
Lei Fei48.2%44445249525254474551
Jean47.4%47524947464551394947
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-2.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.0 to -1.0); holds up against the 20 characters tested, q=0.003
No wallsNo walls: 53.3% over 16,259 decided matches+1.3%WallsWalls: 51.3% over 32,826 decided matches-0.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Aoi54.4%5455
Lion53.9%5256
Shun53.6%5353
Brad53.4%5255
Kage53.3%5157
Akira53.1%5254
Vanessa52.9%5452
Goh52.8%5355
Sarah52.0%5253
Jacky52.0%5154
Jeffry51.7%5253
Dural51.4%5054
Pai51.4%5152
El Blaze51.4%5348
Wolf50.6%4955
Lau50.5%5051
Eileen48.8%4751
Lei Fei48.2%4752
Jean47.4%4846
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia188,829
South America172,097
North America181,679
Europe16457
Middle East180
Oceania170
Not recorded18774
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Win rate53.4%
Standing#1 of 19 · tier S
Pick rate1.7%
Most picked#18 of 19
Matches counted10,960
Unique players168
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
AoiAoi: 60.0% — 251 wins, 167 losses60.0%AkiraAkira: 56.4% — 723 wins, 559 losses56.4%DuralDural: 56.1% — 83 wins, 65 losses56.1%KageKage: 55.9% — 429 wins, 339 losses55.9%LionLion: 55.8% — 269 wins, 213 losses55.8%GohGoh: 55.7% — 354 wins, 282 losses55.7%JackyJacky: 54.8% — 636 wins, 524 losses54.8%BradBrad: 54.6% — 350 wins, 291 losses54.6%ShunShun: 53.4% — 311 wins, 271 losses53.4%PaiPai: 53.0% — 254 wins, 225 losses53.0%SarahSarah: 52.9% — 290 wins, 258 losses52.9%LauLau: 51.8% — 344 wins, 320 losses51.8%WolfWolf: 50.9% — 342 wins, 330 losses50.9%El BlazeEl Blaze: 50.1% — 205 wins, 204 losses50.1%JeffryJeffry: 50.1% — 297 wins, 296 losses50.1%EileenEileen: 48.7% — 76 wins, 80 losses48.7%JeanJean: 48.5% — 264 wins, 280 losses48.5%Lei FeiLei Fei: 47.9% — 193 wins, 210 losses47.9%VanessaVanessa: 47.2% — 177 wins, 198 losses47.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Aoi60.05%251167418
Akira56.40%7235591,282
Dural56.08%8365148
Kage55.86%429339768
Lion55.81%269213482
Goh55.66%354282636
Jacky54.83%6365241,160
Brad54.60%350291641
Shun53.44%311271582
Pai53.03%254225479
Sarah52.92%290258548
Lau51.81%344320664
Wolf50.89%342330672
El Blaze50.12%205204409
Jeffry50.08%297296593
Eileen48.72%7680156
Jean48.53%264280544
Lei Fei47.89%193210403
Vanessa47.20%177198375

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 57.3% over 951 decided matches+4.0%Single wallSingle wall: 56.9% over 1,125 decided matches+3.5%Fence and openFence and open: 55.7% over 526 decided matches+2.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 54.0% over 1,144 decided matches+0.7%RectangleRectangle: 53.3% over 1,112 decided matches-0.0%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 53.2% over 1,096 decided matches-0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 52.4% over 1,114 decided matches-0.9%OpenOpen: 52.3% over 1,125 decided matches-1.1%Full fenceFull fence: 50.5% over 1,112 decided matches-2.9%OctagonOctagon: 49.6% over 1,100 decided matches-3.7%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Aoi60.0%68475753625653656171
Akira56.4%51575859576362535552
Dural56.1%47593360655056605075
Kage55.9%52425059557346516456
Lion55.8%49574945557269506056
Goh55.7%54595360536860555150
Jacky54.8%49635254615966505652
Brad54.6%50555359695665554349
Shun53.4%44604249514856525858
Pai53.0%65536135605065335255
Sarah52.9%42605457665543515840
Lau51.8%46536249595442524944
Wolf50.9%50405350535755474959
El Blaze50.1%42485475684768414142
Jeffry50.1%56474852624444534852
Eileen48.7%573521385555100486453
Jean48.5%50564456414452295452
Lei Fei47.9%39356054565058424253
Vanessa47.2%50494753384520505045
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-3.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -5.5 to -0.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.058
No wallsNo walls: 55.4% over 3,201 decided matches+2.0%WallsWalls: 52.2% over 6,678 decided matches-1.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Aoi60.0%5963
Akira56.4%5557
Dural56.1%5264
Kage55.9%5362
Lion55.8%5162
Goh55.7%5557
Jacky54.8%5457
Brad54.6%5257
Shun53.4%5253
Pai53.0%5155
Sarah52.9%5452
Lau51.8%5253
Wolf50.9%4856
El Blaze50.1%5049
Jeffry50.1%5152
Eileen48.7%4554
Jean48.5%4946
Lei Fei47.9%4553
Vanessa47.2%5043
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 54.3% over 3,865 decided matches+2.4%Single wallSingle wall: 54.2% over 4,523 decided matches+2.3%Fence and openFence and open: 52.9% over 2,146 decided matches+1.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.6% over 4,411 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 51.6% over 4,565 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.4% over 4,574 decided matches-0.4%RectangleRectangle: 51.4% over 4,541 decided matches-0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.3% over 4,158 decided matches-0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 51.0% over 4,516 decided matches-0.9%OctagonOctagon: 49.8% over 4,488 decided matches-2.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Aoi55.1%60485250575354595660
Kage53.4%52464955526449505655
Shun53.4%50575050544854525756
Akira53.2%51545453555757505152
Goh52.7%53535256526352515050
Lion52.6%49535049506058505453
Dural52.5%51534353564551505267
Brad52.5%50535353615358524749
Jacky52.2%52545051545659495251
Pai51.5%57525544545059435052
Jeffry51.3%54495152585049525052
Sarah51.2%45555453575444515343
Lau51.0%49505550575143544948
Wolf50.6%51445149535551495055
Vanessa49.8%52514954484837515249
Eileen49.8%54443739505575495654
El Blaze49.5%48495259564856464545
Jean49.1%49534853484651405052
Lei Fei48.8%44425550534960464752
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-2.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.4 to -1.0); holds up against the 20 characters tested, q=0.004
No wallsNo walls: 53.3% over 12,953 decided matches+1.4%WallsWalls: 51.1% over 26,688 decided matches-0.8%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Aoi55.1%5556
Kage53.4%5157
Shun53.4%5352
Akira53.2%5255
Goh52.7%5255
Lion52.6%5155
Dural52.5%5156
Brad52.5%5153
Jacky52.2%5154
Pai51.5%5152
Jeffry51.3%5153
Sarah51.2%5251
Lau51.0%5153
Wolf50.6%4954
Vanessa49.8%5148
Eileen49.8%4753
El Blaze49.5%5048
Jean49.1%4949
Lei Fei48.8%4752
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia186,375
South America172,097
North America181,605
Europe13353
Middle East180
Oceania170
Not recorded18722
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate54.5%
Standing#1 of 19 · tier S
Pick rate2.4%
Most picked#18 of 19
Matches counted2,658
Unique players27
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
BradBrad: 68.1% — 81 wins, 38 losses68.1%El BlazeEl Blaze: 64.8% — 59 wins, 32 losses64.8%LionLion: 62.2% — 143 wins, 87 losses62.2%SarahSarah: 62.0% — 57 wins, 35 losses62.0%VanessaVanessa: 61.9% — 130 wins, 80 losses61.9%JeffryJeffry: 59.7% — 46 wins, 31 losses59.7%ShunShun: 55.9% — 114 wins, 90 losses55.9%GohGoh: 55.0% — 44 wins, 36 losses55.0%KageKage: 54.1% — 152 wins, 129 losses54.1%PaiPai: 52.6% — 50 wins, 45 losses52.6%JackyJacky: 52.3% — 91 wins, 83 losses52.3%AkiraAkira: 51.8% — 115 wins, 107 losses51.8%WolfWolf: 51.0% — 49 wins, 47 losses51.0%Lei FeiLei Fei: 50.3% — 85 wins, 84 losses50.3%AoiAoi: 50.0% — 33 wins, 33 losses50.0%LauLau: 47.8% — 119 wins, 130 losses47.8%EileenEileen: 43.3% — 39 wins, 51 losses43.3%DuralDural: 38.5% — 5 wins, 8 losses38.5%JeanJean: 36.0% — 36 wins, 64 losses36.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Brad68.07%8138119
El Blaze64.84%593291
Lion62.17%14387230
Sarah61.96%573592
Vanessa61.90%13080210
Jeffry59.74%463177
Shun55.88%11490204
Goh55.00%443680
Kage54.09%152129281
Pai52.63%504595
Jacky52.30%9183174
Akira51.80%115107222
Wolf51.04%494796
Lei Fei50.30%8584169
Aoi50.00%333366
Lau47.79%119130249
Eileen43.33%395190
Dural38.46%5813
Jean36.00%3664100

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 60.7% over 252 decided matches+6.2%Fence and openFence and open: 60.6% over 132 decided matches+6.1%Single wallSingle wall: 58.1% over 277 decided matches+3.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 56.1% over 260 decided matches+1.7%Low fenceLow fence: 55.1% over 296 decided matches+0.6%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 54.9% over 257 decided matches+0.4%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 52.2% over 268 decided matches-2.2%Full fenceFull fence: 51.2% over 279 decided matches-3.2%OpenOpen: 50.4% over 268 decided matches-4.1%RectangleRectangle: 48.8% over 240 decided matches-5.7%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Brad68.1%507375788560100837550
El Blaze64.8%855083705050100717843
Lion62.2%62606156636874606248
Sarah62.0%73578056576067674580
Vanessa61.9%71684871557250705359
Jeffry59.7%29628367544067675071
Shun55.9%38576052476575824448
Goh55.0%904562436250206010044
Kage54.1%50155262605367685257
Pai52.6%837546363843100573870
Jacky52.3%40645838717144334438
Akira51.8%47386065434647485647
Wolf51.0%17505338895450565080
Lei Fei50.3%44622262558033484254
Aoi50.0%10029672067430506741
Lau47.8%37604750303783623549
Eileen43.3%17574531675062553043
Dural38.5%33··03350100··0
Jean36.0%33565683829·25400
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.6 pts behind walls (95% interval -5.1 to +4.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.887
No wallsNo walls: 54.6% over 841 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 54.0% over 1,556 decided matches-0.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Brad68.1%6970
El Blaze64.8%7346
Lion62.2%6060
Sarah62.0%6369
Vanessa61.9%6364
Jeffry59.7%6156
Shun55.9%5454
Goh55.0%6252
Kage54.1%5257
Pai52.6%5152
Jacky52.3%4861
Akira51.8%5345
Wolf51.0%4370
Lei Fei50.3%4760
Aoi50.0%5348
Lau47.8%5039
Eileen43.3%4052
Dural38.5%2033
Jean36.0%4126
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 56.2% over 998 decided matches+3.8%Single wallSingle wall: 54.8% over 1,103 decided matches+2.3%Fence and openFence and open: 54.2% over 541 decided matches+1.7%Low fenceLow fence: 54.0% over 1,149 decided matches+1.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 53.3% over 1,051 decided matches+0.8%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.5% over 986 decided matches-0.9%Full fenceFull fence: 51.2% over 1,123 decided matches-1.2%OpenOpen: 50.9% over 1,054 decided matches-1.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.1% over 1,023 decided matches-2.3%RectangleRectangle: 50.0% over 957 decided matches-2.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
El Blaze60.3%73596265485560656646
Vanessa58.8%68635165546454645455
Brad58.1%47567056695267706253
Lion56.7%58535353616263555849
Sarah56.7%60526252595258675070
Jeffry55.1%45536760554557565359
Shun54.1%43575551505959675252
Goh53.7%66495846535243587551
Kage52.8%49275058595453605253
Akira52.5%51425860505247515851
Pai50.7%58585043474875504458
Jacky50.6%43565344586049464543
Wolf50.4%43504840745046535067
Aoi50.2%7140563761420545947
Lau49.0%46525146434371544251
Eileen47.2%44505040505056574144
Lei Fei46.5%44513247486533504250
Dural39.6%36··0464460··25
Jean37.2%334951154037·31414
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.6 to +1.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
No wallsNo walls: 53.2% over 3,306 decided matches+0.8%WallsWalls: 52.0% over 6,138 decided matches-0.4%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
El Blaze60.3%6649
Vanessa58.8%6059
Brad58.1%5860
Lion56.7%5557
Sarah56.7%5662
Jeffry55.1%5554
Shun54.1%5354
Goh53.7%5652
Kage52.8%5156
Akira52.5%5451
Pai50.7%4952
Jacky50.6%4855
Wolf50.4%4760
Aoi50.2%5249
Lau49.0%4946
Eileen47.2%4748
Lei Fei46.5%4553
Dural39.6%2442
Jean37.2%4032
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia182,454
North America1374
Europe10104
South America180
Not recorded1252