VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Shun

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.0%
Standing#16 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate5.1%
Most picked#12 of 19
Matches counted37,825
Unique players245
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 51.5% — 1,121 wins, 1,054 losses51.5%VanessaVanessa: 51.1% — 802 wins, 768 losses51.1%AoiAoi: 51.0% — 842 wins, 808 losses51.0%SarahSarah: 51.0% — 969 wins, 933 losses51.0%JeffryJeffry: 50.7% — 1,223 wins, 1,191 losses50.7%Lei FeiLei Fei: 50.0% — 847 wins, 847 losses50.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 49.8% — 779 wins, 786 losses49.8%JeanJean: 49.6% — 840 wins, 854 losses49.6%PaiPai: 49.4% — 877 wins, 899 losses49.4%GohGoh: 49.3% — 978 wins, 1,005 losses49.3%JackyJacky: 49.1% — 1,954 wins, 2,023 losses49.1%AkiraAkira: 48.6% — 1,978 wins, 2,088 losses48.6%LauLau: 48.3% — 1,358 wins, 1,451 losses48.3%KageKage: 47.4% — 1,194 wins, 1,325 losses47.4%BradBrad: 46.9% — 868 wins, 981 losses46.9%LionLion: 46.7% — 1,060 wins, 1,211 losses46.7%TakaTaka: 45.9% — 361 wins, 425 losses45.9%EileenEileen: 45.2% — 298 wins, 361 losses45.2%DuralDural: 42.7% — 199 wins, 267 losses42.7%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf51.54%1,1211,0542,175
Vanessa51.08%8027681,570
Aoi51.03%8428081,650
Sarah50.95%9699331,902
Jeffry50.66%1,2231,1912,414
Lei Fei50.00%8478471,694
El Blaze49.78%7797861,565
Jean49.59%8408541,694
Pai49.38%8778991,776
Goh49.32%9781,0051,983
Jacky49.13%1,9542,0233,977
Akira48.65%1,9782,0884,066
Lau48.34%1,3581,4512,809
Kage47.40%1,1941,3252,519
Brad46.94%8689811,849
Lion46.68%1,0601,2112,271
Taka45.93%361425786
Eileen45.22%298361659
Dural42.70%199267466

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 50.1% over 3,779 decided matches+1.1%OctagonOctagon: 50.0% over 3,748 decided matches+0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 49.6% over 2,004 decided matches+0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.5% over 3,816 decided matches+0.5%Single wallSingle wall: 49.1% over 3,862 decided matches+0.0%OpenOpen: 48.8% over 3,639 decided matches-0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 48.7% over 3,936 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.5% over 3,725 decided matches-0.5%RectangleRectangle: 48.0% over 3,781 decided matches-1.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.4% over 3,738 decided matches-1.6%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf51.5%46564757515451525060
Vanessa51.1%50455457544658515543
Aoi51.0%42474753545751615048
Sarah51.0%52514253584549475353
Jeffry50.7%50464549585254495153
Lei Fei50.0%60474950465548504254
El Blaze49.8%52455350464351565251
Jean49.6%49525049475550464850
Pai49.4%47484945515452495242
Goh49.3%49455050515157504548
Jacky49.1%47454849515051504850
Akira48.6%51494847485149504348
Lau48.3%43475247524544514949
Kage47.4%45454948444641544847
Brad46.9%47505048494547364848
Lion46.7%54474750404051474546
Taka45.9%58415450504737424545
Eileen45.2%42355445505150544631
Dural42.7%37473346364441674641
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.7 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.9 to +0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.437
No wallsNo walls: 49.3% over 11,280 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 48.7% over 22,744 decided matches-0.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf51.5%5155
Vanessa51.1%5247
Aoi51.0%5053
Sarah51.0%5052
Jeffry50.7%4855
Lei Fei50.0%4952
El Blaze49.8%5147
Jean49.6%4951
Pai49.4%4849
Goh49.3%4850
Jacky49.1%4850
Akira48.6%4849
Lau48.3%4849
Kage47.4%4846
Brad46.9%4747
Lion46.7%4842
Taka45.9%4847
Eileen45.2%4642
Dural42.7%4440
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.3% over 14,780 decided matches+0.8%OctagonOctagon: 49.2% over 15,098 decided matches+0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 49.1% over 15,171 decided matches+0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 48.9% over 8,046 decided matches+0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 48.7% over 15,559 decided matches+0.1%OpenOpen: 48.4% over 14,626 decided matches-0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 48.3% over 15,748 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.1% over 14,914 decided matches-0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.1% over 14,445 decided matches-0.5%RectangleRectangle: 47.7% over 15,169 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf50.4%48524653505251505055
Aoi49.9%45484851535249554948
Vanessa49.8%49475153524853505145
Sarah49.7%50514453534851484950
Jeffry49.5%49484649535050485051
Jean49.3%49515049495350494747
El Blaze49.0%50474950474749525050
Goh49.0%48485050505053494747
Pai48.8%48484846505149495046
Lei Fei48.8%54474850475248484550
Jacky48.5%48474748494950484850
Lau48.3%46475048504744504850
Akira48.1%49484747474950494647
Brad47.6%47504849494746424848
Kage47.5%46474847464744514748
Lion47.0%50474850444449484646
Eileen46.6%47435147474947524640
Taka46.4%52434950474944454445
Dural45.5%42504349414547564642
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.9 to +0.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.455
No wallsNo walls: 48.8% over 45,356 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 48.4% over 90,154 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf50.4%5052
Aoi49.9%4951
Vanessa49.8%5049
Sarah49.7%4950
Jeffry49.5%4851
Jean49.3%4950
El Blaze49.0%5048
Goh49.0%4949
Pai48.8%4849
Lei Fei48.8%4850
Jacky48.5%4849
Lau48.3%4849
Akira48.1%4848
Brad47.6%4748
Kage47.5%4847
Lion47.0%4844
Eileen46.6%4744
Taka46.4%4747
Dural45.5%4743
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia927,726
South America86,169
North America123,389
Europe31,478
Middle East170
Oceania72
Not recorded15987
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Win rate49.2%
Standing#14 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate5.0%
Most picked#12 of 19
Matches counted31,614
Unique players233
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
AoiAoi: 51.0% — 722 wins, 693 losses51.0%VanessaVanessa: 50.9% — 599 wins, 578 losses50.9%Lei FeiLei Fei: 50.8% — 699 wins, 677 losses50.8%WolfWolf: 50.7% — 999 wins, 971 losses50.7%GohGoh: 50.5% — 841 wins, 825 losses50.5%JeffryJeffry: 50.5% — 1,129 wins, 1,108 losses50.5%SarahSarah: 50.3% — 816 wins, 806 losses50.3%El BlazeEl Blaze: 50.2% — 595 wins, 590 losses50.2%JackyJacky: 50.0% — 1,684 wins, 1,686 losses50.0%JeanJean: 49.3% — 787 wins, 808 losses49.3%LauLau: 49.2% — 1,053 wins, 1,086 losses49.2%AkiraAkira: 49.1% — 1,692 wins, 1,751 losses49.1%PaiPai: 48.7% — 757 wins, 796 losses48.7%KageKage: 47.8% — 975 wins, 1,063 losses47.8%BradBrad: 47.7% — 734 wins, 804 losses47.7%TakaTaka: 46.6% — 271 wins, 311 losses46.6%LionLion: 45.1% — 818 wins, 994 losses45.1%EileenEileen: 42.9% — 191 wins, 254 losses42.9%DuralDural: 42.8% — 193 wins, 258 losses42.8%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Aoi51.02%7226931,415
Vanessa50.89%5995781,177
Lei Fei50.80%6996771,376
Wolf50.71%9999711,970
Goh50.48%8418251,666
Jeffry50.47%1,1291,1082,237
Sarah50.31%8168061,622
El Blaze50.21%5955901,185
Jacky49.97%1,6841,6863,370
Jean49.34%7878081,595
Lau49.23%1,0531,0862,139
Akira49.14%1,6921,7513,443
Pai48.74%7577961,553
Kage47.84%9751,0632,038
Brad47.72%7348041,538
Taka46.56%271311582
Lion45.14%8189941,812
Eileen42.92%191254445
Dural42.79%193258451

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 50.1% over 1,655 decided matches+0.9%OctagonOctagon: 50.0% over 3,131 decided matches+0.8%Single wallSingle wall: 49.9% over 3,221 decided matches+0.7%Low fenceLow fence: 49.8% over 3,153 decided matches+0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.3% over 3,203 decided matches+0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.0% over 3,103 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 48.8% over 3,005 decided matches-0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 48.8% over 3,272 decided matches-0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.9% over 3,179 decided matches-1.3%RectangleRectangle: 47.7% over 3,139 decided matches-1.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Aoi51.0%42474953535650614950
Vanessa50.9%53435360524555526037
Lei Fei50.8%64494751455652514452
Wolf50.7%46544656505348514859
Goh50.5%52475250555156494649
Jeffry50.5%49474647575056495252
Sarah50.3%53494552554942455154
El Blaze50.2%49485850464251565252
Jacky50.0%48454749515355494852
Jean49.3%48544948465648464851
Lau49.2%44485248534949524848
Akira49.1%52504947494950514348
Pai48.7%44474944505553495142
Kage47.8%43465246464742544747
Brad47.7%49515248494647384948
Taka46.6%56405851495244484242
Lion45.1%55454348334251474246
Eileen42.9%42405441404840544231
Dural42.8%37443347374439674643
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.8 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.1 to +0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.505
No wallsNo walls: 49.5% over 9,379 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 48.8% over 19,027 decided matches-0.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Aoi51.0%5053
Vanessa50.9%5345
Lei Fei50.8%5152
Wolf50.7%5054
Goh50.5%4952
Jeffry50.5%4854
Sarah50.3%4953
El Blaze50.2%5247
Jacky50.0%4852
Jean49.3%4951
Lau49.2%4950
Akira49.1%4949
Pai48.7%4749
Kage47.8%4847
Brad47.7%4847
Taka46.6%4847
Lion45.1%4641
Eileen42.9%4538
Dural42.8%4442
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 49.2% over 12,987 decided matches+0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 49.2% over 6,668 decided matches+0.5%OctagonOctagon: 49.2% over 12,599 decided matches+0.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.1% over 12,401 decided matches+0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 49.1% over 12,659 decided matches+0.3%OpenOpen: 48.6% over 12,125 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 48.5% over 13,079 decided matches-0.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.4% over 12,293 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.3% over 12,422 decided matches-0.4%RectangleRectangle: 47.7% over 12,595 decided matches-1.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf50.1%48524653505249504955
Aoi49.9%45484852525248544950
Vanessa49.7%50465054524851505442
Goh49.6%50495049525053494848
Sarah49.4%50504653525047474851
Jeffry49.3%49494748524951485051
Jean49.1%49515049485249494747
Lei Fei49.0%55494749465249484649
Jacky49.0%48474748505053484752
El Blaze48.8%48475149484649525049
Lau48.8%47485048504947514849
Akira48.6%50494848484950504648
Pai48.5%46474846495249504947
Brad48.0%48505049494746434848
Kage47.9%45485047474744514748
Taka46.6%50435050465246484344
Lion46.4%51454649404550484447
Dural45.6%42484349424545564643
Eileen45.3%48455143394743524341
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +0.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.507
No wallsNo walls: 49.0% over 37,771 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 48.5% over 75,389 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf50.1%5052
Aoi49.9%4951
Vanessa49.7%5147
Goh49.6%4950
Sarah49.4%4951
Jeffry49.3%4951
Jean49.1%4949
Lei Fei49.0%4949
Jacky49.0%4850
El Blaze48.8%4948
Lau48.8%4949
Akira48.6%4848
Pai48.5%4849
Brad48.0%4848
Kage47.9%4847
Taka46.6%4748
Lion46.4%4744
Dural45.6%4743
Eileen45.3%4742
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1121,901
South America86,022
North America113,183
Europe51,138
Middle East170
Oceania72
Not recorded15966
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.2%
Standing#14 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate5.8%
Most picked#7 of 19
Matches counted6,211
Unique players32
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 59.5% — 122 wins, 83 losses59.5%SarahSarah: 54.6% — 153 wins, 127 losses54.6%PaiPai: 53.8% — 120 wins, 103 losses53.8%JeanJean: 53.5% — 53 wins, 46 losses53.5%JeffryJeffry: 53.1% — 94 wins, 83 losses53.1%LionLion: 52.7% — 242 wins, 217 losses52.7%VanessaVanessa: 51.6% — 203 wins, 190 losses51.6%AoiAoi: 51.1% — 120 wins, 115 losses51.1%EileenEileen: 50.0% — 107 wins, 107 losses50.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 48.4% — 184 wins, 196 losses48.4%Lei FeiLei Fei: 46.5% — 148 wins, 170 losses46.5%AkiraAkira: 45.9% — 286 wins, 337 losses45.9%KageKage: 45.5% — 219 wins, 262 losses45.5%LauLau: 45.5% — 305 wins, 365 losses45.5%JackyJacky: 44.5% — 270 wins, 337 losses44.5%TakaTaka: 44.1% — 90 wins, 114 losses44.1%GohGoh: 43.2% — 137 wins, 180 losses43.2%BradBrad: 43.1% — 134 wins, 177 losses43.1%DuralDural: 40.0% — 6 wins, 9 losses40.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf59.51%12283205
Sarah54.64%153127280
Pai53.81%120103223
Jean53.54%534699
Jeffry53.11%9483177
Lion52.72%242217459
Vanessa51.65%203190393
Aoi51.06%120115235
Eileen50.00%107107214
El Blaze48.42%184196380
Lei Fei46.54%148170318
Akira45.91%286337623
Kage45.53%219262481
Lau45.52%305365670
Jacky44.48%270337607
Taka44.12%90114204
Goh43.22%137180317
Brad43.09%134177311
Dural40.00%6915

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 51.8% over 626 decided matches+3.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.1% over 613 decided matches+2.9%OctagonOctagon: 49.4% over 617 decided matches+1.2%RectangleRectangle: 49.4% over 642 decided matches+1.2%OpenOpen: 48.7% over 634 decided matches+0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 48.3% over 664 decided matches+0.1%Fence and openFence and open: 47.3% over 349 decided matches-0.9%Half fenceHalf fence: 46.1% over 622 decided matches-2.0%Single wallSingle wall: 44.8% over 641 decided matches-3.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 44.7% over 559 decided matches-3.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf59.5%48865264625971526869
Sarah54.6%46673158732176586550
Pai53.8%74674852544825485545
Jean53.5%703362541004471574443
Jeffry53.1%52442789676829503764
Lion52.7%52586160673150455447
Vanessa51.6%38495751585165493857
Aoi51.1%44424052626262675840
Eileen50.0%40225452635569525529
El Blaze48.4%60373954434550565250
Lei Fei46.5%48395648504720492461
Akira45.9%47424045456046464649
Kage45.5%52413056374338554948
Lau45.5%42395143493436465153
Jacky44.5%43415150494121535035
Taka44.1%62434048533525185652
Goh43.2%40393850365061583843
Brad43.1%38474147483842324448
Dural40.0%067·00067··0
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.2 to +2.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.918
No wallsNo walls: 48.4% over 1,901 decided matches+0.2%WallsWalls: 48.2% over 3,717 decided matches+0.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf59.5%5963
Sarah54.6%5549
Pai53.8%5549
Jean53.5%5255
Jeffry53.1%4767
Lion52.7%5548
Vanessa51.6%4856
Aoi51.1%4953
Eileen50.0%4748
El Blaze48.4%5046
Lei Fei46.5%4556
Akira45.9%4550
Kage45.5%4843
Lau45.5%4646
Jacky44.5%4842
Taka44.1%4646
Goh43.2%4342
Brad43.1%4145
Dural40.0%500
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.4% over 2,379 decided matches+2.5%Low fenceLow fence: 49.4% over 2,512 decided matches+1.5%OctagonOctagon: 49.1% over 2,499 decided matches+1.2%RectangleRectangle: 47.9% over 2,574 decided matches-0.0%Fence and openFence and open: 47.8% over 1,378 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 47.6% over 2,669 decided matches-0.3%OpenOpen: 47.4% over 2,501 decided matches-0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 47.0% over 2,492 decided matches-0.9%Single wallSingle wall: 46.3% over 2,572 decided matches-1.6%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 46.2% over 2,152 decided matches-1.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf53.0%47654752545161545658
Jeffry52.3%49423874606432544462
Jean51.7%56445755805459504645
Sarah51.5%45573952603569535549
Pai50.6%64594747505042475244
Vanessa50.2%46505551545057493952
El Blaze49.7%56464354454850525154
Aoi49.4%43474647595457595042
Lion49.4%49545454563948465044
Eileen49.4%45375152575354515237
Lei Fei47.6%48405252505140483355
Lau46.6%42434946483939495152
Taka45.9%57434549504141334848
Kage45.8%49433749424541514847
Brad45.7%41514452494646404447
Goh45.6%43444854414656523946
Jacky45.6%45454751484332515038
Akira45.2%48434447425247474644
Dural43.4%059·0252570··14
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.2 to +2.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.729
WallsWalls: 48.0% over 14,765 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 47.7% over 7,585 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf53.0%5254
Jeffry52.3%4861
Jean51.7%5155
Sarah51.5%5148
Pai50.6%5248
Vanessa50.2%4852
El Blaze49.7%5049
Aoi49.4%4951
Lion49.4%5146
Eileen49.4%4849
Lei Fei47.6%4653
Lau46.6%4747
Taka45.9%4746
Kage45.8%4745
Brad45.7%4448
Goh45.6%4644
Jacky45.6%4844
Akira45.2%4646
Dural43.4%4620
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia75,825
North America8206
Europe3340
South America2147
Not recorded1921