VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Sarah

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.7%
Standing#12 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate5.2%
Most picked#10 of 19
Matches counted38,465
Unique players250
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeanJean: 52.6% — 1,101 wins, 993 losses52.6%WolfWolf: 52.1% — 1,235 wins, 1,135 losses52.1%VanessaVanessa: 51.6% — 845 wins, 792 losses51.6%DuralDural: 51.6% — 210 wins, 197 losses51.6%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.2% — 879 wins, 836 losses51.2%JackyJacky: 51.0% — 2,021 wins, 1,942 losses51.0%AkiraAkira: 50.5% — 2,126 wins, 2,087 losses50.5%GohGoh: 50.1% — 1,104 wins, 1,100 losses50.1%BradBrad: 49.4% — 1,026 wins, 1,052 losses49.4%LauLau: 49.3% — 1,141 wins, 1,172 losses49.3%LionLion: 49.3% — 1,128 wins, 1,160 losses49.3%ShunShun: 49.0% — 933 wins, 969 losses49.0%PaiPai: 48.6% — 830 wins, 877 losses48.6%AoiAoi: 48.5% — 847 wins, 898 losses48.5%El BlazeEl Blaze: 48.4% — 813 wins, 867 losses48.4%JeffryJeffry: 47.1% — 1,064 wins, 1,195 losses47.1%KageKage: 47.0% — 1,188 wins, 1,337 losses47.0%TakaTaka: 45.8% — 293 wins, 347 losses45.8%EileenEileen: 45.0% — 326 wins, 399 losses45.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jean52.58%1,1019932,094
Wolf52.11%1,2351,1352,370
Vanessa51.62%8457921,637
Dural51.60%210197407
Lei Fei51.25%8798361,715
Jacky51.00%2,0211,9423,963
Akira50.46%2,1262,0874,213
Goh50.09%1,1041,1002,204
Brad49.37%1,0261,0522,078
Lau49.33%1,1411,1722,313
Lion49.30%1,1281,1602,288
Shun49.05%9339691,902
Pai48.62%8308771,707
Aoi48.54%8478981,745
El Blaze48.39%8138671,680
Jeffry47.10%1,0641,1952,259
Kage47.05%1,1881,3372,525
Taka45.78%293347640
Eileen44.97%326399725

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 51.4% over 3,998 decided matches+1.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.1% over 3,825 decided matches+1.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.3% over 3,756 decided matches+0.6%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.0% over 3,836 decided matches+0.3%Fence and openFence and open: 50.0% over 1,929 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 50.0% over 3,802 decided matches+0.3%OpenOpen: 49.6% over 3,787 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.3% over 3,765 decided matches-0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 48.4% over 3,830 decided matches-1.2%RectangleRectangle: 47.4% over 4,009 decided matches-2.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean52.6%56485556525159524953
Wolf52.1%50525751534457565349
Vanessa51.6%50535359474748575150
Dural51.6%40505157516281554150
Lei Fei51.2%55565355514546504754
Jacky51.0%49564652515252545049
Akira50.5%51494950525052544552
Goh50.1%50505052465255524847
Brad49.4%52485151495145435052
Lau49.3%52465055445145514751
Lion49.3%48524751515150544746
Shun49.0%48495847425551534747
Pai48.6%48514551505648494153
Aoi48.5%48525352454452494355
El Blaze48.4%53474349474646515248
Jeffry47.1%43435441504847494446
Kage47.0%51485050444644484544
Taka45.8%53414243364554484451
Eileen45.0%43464045424243425049
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.4 to +2.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.318
WallsWalls: 50.0% over 23,226 decided matches+0.3%No wallsNo walls: 49.1% over 11,382 decided matches-0.6%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean52.6%5352
Wolf52.1%5349
Vanessa51.6%5448
Dural51.6%4954
Lei Fei51.2%5249
Jacky51.0%5150
Akira50.5%5051
Goh50.1%5049
Brad49.4%4951
Lau49.3%5049
Lion49.3%5049
Shun49.0%5048
Pai48.6%4753
Aoi48.5%4948
El Blaze48.4%4947
Jeffry47.1%4648
Kage47.0%4944
Taka45.8%4545
Eileen45.0%4544
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.8% over 14,923 decided matches+0.8%OctagonOctagon: 50.6% over 16,319 decided matches+0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 50.2% over 15,518 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.1% over 14,964 decided matches+0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 15,317 decided matches+0.1%OpenOpen: 49.9% over 15,449 decided matches-0.0%Fence and openFence and open: 49.8% over 7,902 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 15,543 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 49.6% over 15,420 decided matches-0.4%RectangleRectangle: 48.8% over 16,239 decided matches-1.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural51.5%44505152535769534851
Jean51.3%54505252515155505050
Wolf51.2%50515352524653535249
Vanessa51.0%51515254484949535051
Akira50.5%51504951515051514851
Jacky50.5%50534850515051525049
Lei Fei50.5%51525153504748514852
Shun50.3%50495647475249525150
Goh50.2%50504952485153514949
Lau50.0%52505053485048524951
Brad50.0%51505151505048465051
Lion49.8%48524952515050524848
Pai49.4%49504851505249504651
El Blaze49.2%51474650484848505250
Aoi49.1%49525152484650494652
Kage48.6%50494951474947484748
Jeffry48.1%45465245504848494648
Taka48.0%53464548434654484751
Eileen46.6%47464547464645434947
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.2 to +1.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.407
WallsWalls: 50.1% over 93,280 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 49.7% over 46,412 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural51.5%5053
Jean51.3%5151
Wolf51.2%5249
Vanessa51.0%5249
Akira50.5%5051
Jacky50.5%5150
Lei Fei50.5%5150
Shun50.3%5150
Goh50.2%5049
Lau50.0%5150
Brad50.0%5051
Lion49.8%5049
Pai49.4%4951
El Blaze49.2%4949
Aoi49.1%5049
Kage48.6%4948
Jeffry48.1%4749
Taka48.0%4847
Eileen46.6%4646
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia829,014
South America125,058
North America113,455
Europe61,131
Middle East160
Oceania160
Not recorded81,953
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.3%
Standing#9 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate5.3%
Most picked#9 of 19
Matches counted33,612
Unique players238
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
Lei FeiLei Fei: 53.0% — 782 wins, 693 losses53.0%JeanJean: 52.6% — 1,065 wins, 958 losses52.6%DuralDural: 52.5% — 193 wins, 175 losses52.5%WolfWolf: 52.3% — 1,137 wins, 1,038 losses52.3%LionLion: 51.3% — 926 wins, 880 losses51.3%GohGoh: 51.1% — 1,034 wins, 990 losses51.1%AkiraAkira: 51.1% — 1,881 wins, 1,803 losses51.1%VanessaVanessa: 51.0% — 686 wins, 658 losses51.0%JackyJacky: 50.8% — 1,775 wins, 1,721 losses50.8%El BlazeEl Blaze: 50.3% — 662 wins, 655 losses50.3%ShunShun: 49.7% — 806 wins, 816 losses49.7%BradBrad: 49.6% — 934 wins, 950 losses49.6%LauLau: 49.5% — 953 wins, 973 losses49.5%PaiPai: 49.0% — 774 wins, 805 losses49.0%AoiAoi: 48.9% — 781 wins, 815 losses48.9%EileenEileen: 47.9% — 254 wins, 276 losses47.9%JeffryJeffry: 47.7% — 983 wins, 1,076 losses47.7%TakaTaka: 47.1% — 258 wins, 290 losses47.1%KageKage: 46.9% — 1,011 wins, 1,145 losses46.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Lei Fei53.02%7826931,475
Jean52.64%1,0659582,023
Dural52.45%193175368
Wolf52.28%1,1371,0382,175
Lion51.27%9268801,806
Goh51.09%1,0349902,024
Akira51.06%1,8811,8033,684
Vanessa51.04%6866581,344
Jacky50.77%1,7751,7213,496
El Blaze50.27%6626551,317
Shun49.69%8068161,622
Brad49.58%9349501,884
Lau49.48%9539731,926
Pai49.02%7748051,579
Aoi48.93%7818151,596
Eileen47.92%254276530
Jeffry47.74%9831,0762,059
Taka47.08%258290548
Kage46.89%1,0111,1452,156

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 51.7% over 3,520 decided matches+1.4%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.6% over 3,345 decided matches+1.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.8% over 3,334 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 50.6% over 3,289 decided matches+0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 50.6% over 1,677 decided matches+0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.3% over 3,266 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 50.2% over 3,307 decided matches-0.0%Full fenceFull fence: 50.0% over 3,363 decided matches-0.3%Low fenceLow fence: 49.3% over 3,336 decided matches-0.9%RectangleRectangle: 48.1% over 3,499 decided matches-2.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lei Fei53.0%55575654504749534959
Jean52.6%56485656525258524953
Dural52.5%39535857515979514253
Wolf52.3%50545752524357565349
Lion51.3%47564754525251585049
Goh51.1%51515154465558524948
Akira51.1%51495051535050554653
Vanessa51.0%49535157454852565248
Jacky50.8%49554551535452534948
El Blaze50.3%51494150525050515355
Shun49.7%47515548455158554946
Brad49.6%51485052505243435154
Lau49.5%53484957435143504951
Pai49.0%48524551525746504153
Aoi48.9%48515352454652494456
Eileen47.9%50484346454245495256
Jeffry47.7%42445441524948484549
Taka47.1%58404643344557494260
Kage46.9%51515050454643474441
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.0 to +1.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.799
WallsWalls: 50.4% over 20,327 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 50.1% over 9,932 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lei Fei53.0%5451
Jean52.6%5352
Dural52.5%5054
Wolf52.3%5448
Lion51.3%5251
Goh51.1%5150
Akira51.1%5052
Vanessa51.0%5347
Jacky50.8%5151
El Blaze50.3%4952
Shun49.7%5147
Brad49.6%4952
Lau49.5%5148
Pai49.0%4754
Aoi48.9%4949
Eileen47.9%4847
Jeffry47.7%4650
Taka47.1%4648
Kage46.9%4944
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.0% over 13,041 decided matches+0.7%OctagonOctagon: 50.8% over 14,365 decided matches+0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.6% over 13,028 decided matches+0.3%OpenOpen: 50.6% over 13,427 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 50.3% over 13,752 decided matches-0.0%Fence and openFence and open: 50.3% over 6,884 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 50.2% over 13,544 decided matches-0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.2% over 13,333 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 50.1% over 13,582 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 49.2% over 14,193 decided matches-1.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural52.1%44525452535767524852
Lei Fei51.6%51535353514850524956
Jean51.4%54505253515155504951
Wolf51.2%50525352524653535249
Akira50.9%51505052525150524952
Lion50.9%48544953525151545048
Vanessa50.7%51515153475050535050
Goh50.7%51515052485254515049
Shun50.6%50505447485053535249
Jacky50.4%50534850525151515050
El Blaze50.4%50484650515150515254
Brad50.1%51505051505147475052
Lau50.1%52515054485047524951
Pai49.7%49514851515349504752
Aoi49.4%49515152484750504653
Eileen49.1%52484948484747495051
Taka48.8%55454647434656494757
Jeffry48.7%45465245524949494750
Kage48.5%51504951484946484747
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.6 to +0.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.986
WallsWalls: 50.3% over 81,712 decided matches+0.0%No wallsNo walls: 50.3% over 40,553 decided matches-0.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural52.1%5054
Lei Fei51.6%5251
Jean51.4%5151
Wolf51.2%5249
Akira50.9%5152
Lion50.9%5150
Vanessa50.7%5149
Goh50.7%5150
Shun50.6%5149
Jacky50.4%5051
El Blaze50.4%5052
Brad50.1%5051
Lau50.1%5150
Pai49.7%4952
Aoi49.4%5049
Eileen49.1%4949
Taka48.8%4849
Jeffry48.7%4850
Kage48.5%4948
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia724,517
South America125,058
North America103,306
Europe7894
Middle East160
Oceania160
Not recorded71,785
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate45.6%
Standing#18 of 19 · tier D
Pick rate4.5%
Most picked#11 of 19
Matches counted4,853
Unique players23
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
VanessaVanessa: 54.3% — 159 wins, 134 losses54.3%JackyJacky: 52.7% — 246 wins, 221 losses52.7%JeanJean: 50.7% — 36 wins, 35 losses50.7%WolfWolf: 50.3% — 98 wins, 97 losses50.3%LauLau: 48.6% — 188 wins, 199 losses48.6%KageKage: 48.0% — 177 wins, 192 losses48.0%BradBrad: 47.4% — 92 wins, 102 losses47.4%AkiraAkira: 46.3% — 245 wins, 284 losses46.3%ShunShun: 45.4% — 127 wins, 153 losses45.4%AoiAoi: 44.3% — 66 wins, 83 losses44.3%PaiPai: 43.8% — 56 wins, 72 losses43.8%DuralDural: 43.6% — 17 wins, 22 losses43.6%LionLion: 41.9% — 202 wins, 280 losses41.9%El BlazeEl Blaze: 41.6% — 151 wins, 212 losses41.6%JeffryJeffry: 40.5% — 81 wins, 119 losses40.5%Lei FeiLei Fei: 40.4% — 97 wins, 143 losses40.4%GohGoh: 38.9% — 70 wins, 110 losses38.9%TakaTaka: 38.0% — 35 wins, 57 losses38.0%EileenEileen: 36.9% — 72 wins, 123 losses36.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Vanessa54.27%159134293
Jacky52.68%246221467
Jean50.70%363571
Wolf50.26%9897195
Lau48.58%188199387
Kage47.97%177192369
Brad47.42%92102194
Akira46.31%245284529
Shun45.36%127153280
Aoi44.30%6683149
Pai43.75%5672128
Dural43.59%172239
Lion41.91%202280482
El Blaze41.60%151212363
Jeffry40.50%81119200
Lei Fei40.42%97143240
Goh38.89%70110180
Taka38.04%355792
Eileen36.92%72123195

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 50.0% over 490 decided matches+4.4%Full fenceFull fence: 49.7% over 439 decided matches+4.0%OctagonOctagon: 49.0% over 478 decided matches+3.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 47.7% over 480 decided matches+2.1%Fence and openFence and open: 46.0% over 252 decided matches+0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 44.2% over 502 decided matches-1.4%Single wallSingle wall: 42.8% over 458 decided matches-2.9%OpenOpen: 42.6% over 498 decided matches-3.1%RectangleRectangle: 42.5% over 510 decided matches-3.1%Low fenceLow fence: 42.5% over 494 decided matches-3.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa54.3%59536468544231584557
Jacky52.7%48625558433850625450
Jean50.7%50452955020100547150
Wolf50.3%33415846674857585040
Lau48.6%49325547475453554250
Kage48.0%49335348384748545355
Brad47.4%60456138433871404637
Akira46.3%50504545394467483849
Shun45.4%54336942277924423550
Aoi44.3%50615250442550441247
Pai43.8%44425045050100432945
Dural43.6%500057501001001003320
Lion41.9%48384842494748413836
El Blaze41.6%63415043332536524633
Jeffry40.5%64414744292725673333
Lei Fei40.4%53443960573235352931
Goh38.9%43374042402036442540
Taka38.0%27432044434033335520
Eileen36.9%27413143314136334423
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+4.5 pts behind walls (95% interval +1.0 to +7.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.157
WallsWalls: 47.1% over 2,899 decided matches+1.4%No wallsNo walls: 42.6% over 1,450 decided matches-3.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa54.3%5752
Jacky52.7%5744
Jean50.7%5133
Wolf50.3%4854
Lau48.6%4750
Kage48.0%4847
Brad47.4%4939
Akira46.3%4643
Shun45.4%4551
Aoi44.3%4838
Pai43.8%4444
Dural43.6%4345
Lion41.9%4244
El Blaze41.6%4832
Jeffry40.5%4831
Lei Fei40.4%4339
Goh38.9%3934
Taka38.0%3731
Eileen36.9%3733
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 49.6% over 1,984 decided matches+2.2%Full fenceFull fence: 49.5% over 1,766 decided matches+2.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.1% over 1,882 decided matches+1.7%OctagonOctagon: 48.7% over 1,954 decided matches+1.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.1% over 1,936 decided matches-0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 47.0% over 1,018 decided matches-0.5%RectangleRectangle: 46.2% over 2,046 decided matches-1.2%Single wallSingle wall: 46.0% over 1,838 decided matches-1.5%Low fenceLow fence: 45.9% over 1,999 decided matches-1.6%OpenOpen: 45.5% over 2,022 decided matches-2.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa52.3%56535661514541534852
Wolf51.7%42465354575257555248
Jacky51.0%49555353484649575148
Jean50.5%43524348402960545946
Lau49.8%53425250495254524749
Kage49.3%49445150454851505154
Brad48.9%54525643434563464546
Shun48.5%55436148406531474551
Akira47.8%48524647454758494447
Aoi46.8%44565460483847443647
Dural46.5%4703354566086644537
Lion45.7%49425047484749444447
Pai45.4%49424846254886463643
Goh45.0%44474648473842503541
El Blaze44.9%56444848413442455042
Lei Fei43.4%50464353504039463238
Taka43.3%40483848414842335030
Jeffry41.3%54404544343322533839
Eileen39.1%33423742383936364627
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+2.6 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.8 to +4.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.103
WallsWalls: 48.3% over 11,568 decided matches+0.9%No wallsNo walls: 45.8% over 5,859 decided matches-1.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa52.3%5450
Wolf51.7%5153
Jacky51.0%5347
Jean50.5%5140
Lau49.8%4949
Kage49.3%4949
Brad48.9%5044
Shun48.5%4952
Akira47.8%4746
Aoi46.8%5044
Dural46.5%4649
Lion45.7%4647
Pai45.4%4545
Goh45.0%4542
El Blaze44.9%4840
Lei Fei43.4%4542
Taka43.3%4438
Jeffry41.3%4536
Eileen39.1%4035
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia114,497
North America11149
Europe4237
South America170
Not recorded9168