VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Lion

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.9%
Standing#6 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate5.5%
Most picked#7 of 19
Matches counted40,935
Unique players321
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
AoiAoi: 54.2% — 923 wins, 780 losses54.2%VanessaVanessa: 53.6% — 985 wins, 851 losses53.6%ShunShun: 53.3% — 1,211 wins, 1,060 losses53.3%GohGoh: 53.2% — 1,194 wins, 1,049 losses53.2%PaiPai: 52.8% — 991 wins, 887 losses52.8%JeanJean: 51.9% — 1,141 wins, 1,056 losses51.9%AkiraAkira: 51.9% — 2,377 wins, 2,206 losses51.9%WolfWolf: 51.6% — 1,186 wins, 1,113 losses51.6%Lei FeiLei Fei: 50.7% — 899 wins, 874 losses50.7%SarahSarah: 50.7% — 1,160 wins, 1,128 losses50.7%DuralDural: 50.4% — 198 wins, 195 losses50.4%KageKage: 50.2% — 1,510 wins, 1,497 losses50.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 49.9% — 759 wins, 761 losses49.9%BradBrad: 49.8% — 1,114 wins, 1,121 losses49.8%JackyJacky: 49.1% — 1,950 wins, 2,021 losses49.1%JeffryJeffry: 48.7% — 1,109 wins, 1,168 losses48.7%LauLau: 48.7% — 1,468 wins, 1,549 losses48.7%EileenEileen: 47.5% — 348 wins, 384 losses47.5%TakaTaka: 42.1% — 300 wins, 412 losses42.1%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Aoi54.20%9237801,703
Vanessa53.65%9858511,836
Shun53.32%1,2111,0602,271
Goh53.23%1,1941,0492,243
Pai52.77%9918871,878
Jean51.93%1,1411,0562,197
Akira51.87%2,3772,2064,583
Wolf51.59%1,1861,1132,299
Lei Fei50.71%8998741,773
Sarah50.70%1,1601,1282,288
Dural50.38%198195393
Kage50.22%1,5101,4973,007
El Blaze49.93%7597611,520
Brad49.84%1,1141,1212,235
Jacky49.11%1,9502,0213,971
Jeffry48.70%1,1091,1682,277
Lau48.66%1,4681,5493,017
Eileen47.54%348384732
Taka42.13%300412712

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 53.0% over 4,067 decided matches+2.1%OpenOpen: 52.6% over 4,055 decided matches+1.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.8% over 4,144 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 50.6% over 3,985 decided matches-0.2%OctagonOctagon: 50.6% over 4,079 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 50.5% over 4,172 decided matches-0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 50.5% over 4,080 decided matches-0.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.2% over 4,017 decided matches-0.6%Fence and openFence and open: 49.7% over 2,017 decided matches-1.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 4,273 decided matches-1.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Aoi54.2%54575653586749504952
Vanessa53.6%49515857505640615555
Shun53.3%46535350606049535554
Goh53.2%53485055525555565257
Pai52.8%53535154495958534955
Jean51.9%49485054575247575152
Akira51.9%54485152505357505554
Wolf51.6%54504954525359525245
Lei Fei50.7%50484843575457554852
Sarah50.7%52485349494950465354
Dural50.4%48445158445035564652
Kage50.2%55454949525549484852
El Blaze49.9%48554746515648484554
Brad49.8%53504756494552435547
Jacky49.1%47484950425244475054
Jeffry48.7%44505144455150524553
Lau48.7%46534845494842474955
Eileen47.5%54474543475080534236
Taka42.1%47424753422929473947
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.7 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.9 to -0.5); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.118
No wallsNo walls: 52.1% over 12,107 decided matches+1.2%WallsWalls: 50.4% over 24,765 decided matches-0.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Aoi54.2%5358
Vanessa53.6%5553
Shun53.3%5258
Goh53.2%5254
Pai52.8%5254
Jean51.9%5154
Akira51.9%5253
Wolf51.6%5250
Lei Fei50.7%4854
Sarah50.7%5051
Dural50.4%5049
Kage50.2%4953
El Blaze49.9%4854
Brad49.8%5147
Jacky49.1%4950
Jeffry48.7%4850
Lau48.7%4850
Eileen47.5%4845
Taka42.1%4639
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 51.4% over 16,598 decided matches+0.9%OpenOpen: 51.2% over 16,583 decided matches+0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 50.5% over 16,302 decided matches+0.0%OctagonOctagon: 50.4% over 16,735 decided matches-0.0%RectangleRectangle: 50.3% over 17,036 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 50.3% over 16,636 decided matches-0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.1% over 15,914 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 16,476 decided matches-0.3%Fence and openFence and open: 50.0% over 8,257 decided matches-0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 16,418 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun53.0%50535250565651525454
Aoi52.0%52535351535750505151
Goh51.8%52495053535252535053
Vanessa51.7%51495553505346535353
Jean51.1%49495052545149545050
Pai51.1%52515051495453514952
Akira50.9%52495151505154505252
Wolf50.4%52504952515054515047
Kage50.3%53485049525348515050
Sarah50.2%52485148495050485252
El Blaze50.1%49524947535350494851
Lei Fei50.0%49495046535252524951
Brad49.9%51504852494752475349
Dural49.8%48465051494840534851
Jacky49.6%49484950475148495052
Lau49.1%48514949504945494852
Jeffry48.8%46485047465050514752
Eileen48.3%50494847474962514641
Taka46.1%48474950464040494548
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.5 to -0.3); holds up against the 20 characters tested, q=0.026
No wallsNo walls: 51.0% over 49,483 decided matches+0.6%WallsWalls: 50.1% over 99,215 decided matches-0.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun53.0%5256
Aoi52.0%5254
Goh51.8%5153
Vanessa51.7%5252
Jean51.1%5152
Pai51.1%5152
Akira50.9%5151
Wolf50.4%5150
Kage50.3%5052
Sarah50.2%5051
El Blaze50.1%4952
Lei Fei50.0%4952
Brad49.9%5049
Dural49.8%5049
Jacky49.6%4950
Lau49.1%4950
Jeffry48.8%4849
Eileen48.3%4946
Taka46.1%4844
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia631,419
South America154,236
North America84,021
Europe41,461
Middle East150
Oceania610
Not recorded72,038
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Win rate51.4%
Standing#4 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate5.1%
Most picked#11 of 19
Matches counted32,582
Unique players296
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
ShunShun: 54.9% — 994 wins, 818 losses54.9%AoiAoi: 54.1% — 806 wins, 685 losses54.1%GohGoh: 53.6% — 1,042 wins, 902 losses53.6%PaiPai: 53.0% — 815 wins, 724 losses53.0%VanessaVanessa: 52.7% — 656 wins, 588 losses52.7%WolfWolf: 52.6% — 1,063 wins, 957 losses52.6%Lei FeiLei Fei: 52.3% — 700 wins, 638 losses52.3%JeanJean: 52.2% — 1,032 wins, 944 losses52.2%AkiraAkira: 52.1% — 1,978 wins, 1,818 losses52.1%JackyJacky: 50.8% — 1,634 wins, 1,583 losses50.8%DuralDural: 50.4% — 178 wins, 175 losses50.4%LauLau: 50.4% — 1,011 wins, 997 losses50.4%BradBrad: 50.2% — 853 wins, 847 losses50.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 50.0% — 530 wins, 529 losses50.0%JeffryJeffry: 49.8% — 994 wins, 1,002 losses49.8%KageKage: 49.4% — 1,180 wins, 1,209 losses49.4%SarahSarah: 48.7% — 880 wins, 926 losses48.7%EileenEileen: 45.9% — 189 wins, 223 losses45.9%TakaTaka: 44.2% — 213 wins, 269 losses44.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Shun54.86%9948181,812
Aoi54.06%8066851,491
Goh53.60%1,0429021,944
Pai52.96%8157241,539
Vanessa52.73%6565881,244
Wolf52.62%1,0639572,020
Lei Fei52.32%7006381,338
Jean52.23%1,0329441,976
Akira52.11%1,9781,8183,796
Jacky50.79%1,6341,5833,217
Dural50.42%178175353
Lau50.35%1,0119972,008
Brad50.18%8538471,700
El Blaze50.05%5305291,059
Jeffry49.80%9941,0021,996
Kage49.39%1,1801,2092,389
Sarah48.73%8809261,806
Eileen45.87%189223412
Taka44.19%213269482

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 54.2% over 3,201 decided matches+2.8%OpenOpen: 52.5% over 3,290 decided matches+1.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.4% over 3,103 decided matches+0.0%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.4% over 3,197 decided matches-0.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.1% over 3,319 decided matches-0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 51.1% over 3,218 decided matches-0.3%OctagonOctagon: 50.8% over 3,285 decided matches-0.6%RectangleRectangle: 50.7% over 3,307 decided matches-0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 50.5% over 1,578 decided matches-0.9%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.0% over 3,441 decided matches-1.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun54.9%45555752675849535854
Aoi54.1%53585852596746504850
Goh53.6%53475157525357575156
Pai53.0%51554854496057554957
Vanessa52.7%46496059455639625353
Wolf52.6%58515055545659535146
Lei Fei52.3%52495145625655525253
Jean52.2%48485153575449585053
Akira52.1%54475254515456495652
Jacky50.8%49515051455648475056
Dural50.4%50445558445335584450
Lau50.4%47565445475441524953
Brad50.2%53534855474755405448
El Blaze50.0%49544247555252464658
Jeffry49.8%45525243485350524655
Kage49.4%54444848515647484852
Sarah48.7%53445346484849425051
Eileen45.9%58453539484291594134
Taka44.2%51435155452831504044
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.2 to -0.5); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.058
No wallsNo walls: 52.7% over 9,594 decided matches+1.3%WallsWalls: 50.9% over 19,767 decided matches-0.6%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun54.9%5459
Aoi54.1%5359
Goh53.6%5354
Pai53.0%5255
Vanessa52.7%5551
Wolf52.6%5352
Lei Fei52.3%5057
Jean52.2%5155
Akira52.1%5253
Jacky50.8%5052
Dural50.4%5049
Lau50.4%5151
Brad50.2%5147
El Blaze50.0%4755
Jeffry49.8%4952
Kage49.4%4853
Sarah48.7%4849
Eileen45.9%4641
Taka44.2%4938
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 52.1% over 13,104 decided matches+1.4%OpenOpen: 51.2% over 13,474 decided matches+0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 50.9% over 12,709 decided matches+0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.6% over 13,110 decided matches-0.1%Fence and openFence and open: 50.6% over 6,452 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 50.6% over 13,089 decided matches-0.1%OctagonOctagon: 50.6% over 13,479 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 50.5% over 13,516 decided matches-0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.4% over 12,735 decided matches-0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.8% over 13,241 decided matches-1.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun53.6%49555451605550525653
Aoi52.1%51545352545849505150
Goh52.1%53485054535153545052
Jean51.3%48505152545250555051
Vanessa51.3%50485654475346545351
Pai51.2%51524950495553524954
Akira51.1%52495152505254495351
Wolf50.9%53504953525255514947
Lei Fei50.9%50505146555351515151
Jacky50.6%49495050485350505153
El Blaze50.4%49524747555252494953
Lau50.1%48525150495245514951
Brad49.9%51514852484854465349
Dural49.9%50465251495040544750
Kage49.9%52484948515348515049
Jeffry49.6%47505147485150514752
Sarah49.1%52465147484949465052
Eileen47.9%54484245514565524742
Taka47.4%51475051504042504647
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.7 to -0.3); holds up against the 20 characters tested, q=0.026
No wallsNo walls: 51.4% over 39,287 decided matches+0.7%WallsWalls: 50.4% over 79,170 decided matches-0.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun53.6%5356
Aoi52.1%5254
Goh52.1%5252
Jean51.3%5152
Vanessa51.3%5350
Pai51.2%5053
Akira51.1%5151
Wolf50.9%5150
Lei Fei50.9%5053
Jacky50.6%5052
El Blaze50.4%4953
Lau50.1%5050
Brad49.9%5049
Dural49.9%5049
Kage49.9%5051
Jeffry49.6%4950
Sarah49.1%4950
Eileen47.9%4845
Taka47.4%4945
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia923,928
South America154,037
North America132,949
Europe21,307
Middle East150
Oceania610
Not recorded81,727
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.8%
Standing#11 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate8.2%
Most picked#4 of 19
Matches counted8,353
Unique players56
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
SarahSarah: 58.1% — 280 wins, 202 losses58.1%VanessaVanessa: 55.6% — 329 wins, 263 losses55.6%AoiAoi: 55.2% — 117 wins, 95 losses55.2%KageKage: 53.4% — 330 wins, 288 losses53.4%PaiPai: 51.9% — 176 wins, 163 losses51.9%GohGoh: 50.8% — 152 wins, 147 losses50.8%AkiraAkira: 50.7% — 399 wins, 388 losses50.7%DuralDural: 50.0% — 20 wins, 20 losses50.0%EileenEileen: 49.7% — 159 wins, 161 losses49.7%El BlazeEl Blaze: 49.7% — 229 wins, 232 losses49.7%JeanJean: 49.3% — 109 wins, 112 losses49.3%BradBrad: 48.8% — 261 wins, 274 losses48.8%ShunShun: 47.3% — 217 wins, 242 losses47.3%Lei FeiLei Fei: 45.8% — 199 wins, 236 losses45.8%LauLau: 45.3% — 457 wins, 552 losses45.3%WolfWolf: 44.1% — 123 wins, 156 losses44.1%JackyJacky: 41.9% — 316 wins, 438 losses41.9%JeffryJeffry: 40.9% — 115 wins, 166 losses40.9%TakaTaka: 37.8% — 87 wins, 143 losses37.8%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Sarah58.09%280202482
Vanessa55.57%329263592
Aoi55.19%11795212
Kage53.40%330288618
Pai51.92%176163339
Goh50.84%152147299
Akira50.70%399388787
Dural50.00%202040
Eileen49.69%159161320
El Blaze49.67%229232461
Jean49.32%109112221
Brad48.79%261274535
Shun47.28%217242459
Lei Fei45.75%199236435
Lau45.29%4575521,009
Wolf44.09%123156279
Jacky41.91%316438754
Jeffry40.93%115166281
Taka37.83%87143230

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 52.9% over 765 decided matches+4.2%RectangleRectangle: 49.9% over 865 decided matches+1.2%OctagonOctagon: 49.9% over 794 decided matches+1.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.6% over 825 decided matches+0.8%Single wallSingle wall: 48.3% over 866 decided matches-0.5%Full fenceFull fence: 48.3% over 862 decided matches-0.5%Low fenceLow fence: 47.9% over 882 decided matches-0.9%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.8% over 832 decided matches-0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 46.9% over 439 decided matches-1.9%Half fenceHalf fence: 45.9% over 820 decided matches-2.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Sarah58.1%52625258515352596264
Vanessa55.6%55565453585542565762
Aoi55.2%62523358446069505464
Kage53.4%57515454575256464656
Pai51.9%60466254505061475049
Goh50.8%47514746526246535560
Akira50.7%51534646455059544866
Dural50.0%33·43·500·45100100
Eileen49.7%50525657466450454238
El Blaze49.7%46585746436438524341
Jean49.3%62504258593617475540
Brad48.8%51444157573943515745
Shun47.3%48423940336950554653
Lei Fei45.8%38413738455062673947
Lau45.3%45463745523742385058
Wolf44.1%34484344433655446940
Jacky41.9%42374448293828464747
Jeffry40.9%39264050283845514245
Taka37.8%38403944373226403852
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.6 to +1.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.711
No wallsNo walls: 49.5% over 2,513 decided matches+0.8%WallsWalls: 48.6% over 4,998 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Sarah58.1%5856
Vanessa55.6%5558
Aoi55.2%5357
Kage53.4%5255
Pai51.9%5350
Goh50.8%5058
Akira50.7%5053
Dural50.0%4750
Eileen49.7%5049
El Blaze49.7%5049
Jean49.3%5348
Brad48.8%5147
Shun47.3%4552
Lei Fei45.8%4348
Lau45.3%4349
Wolf44.1%4640
Jacky41.9%4439
Jeffry40.9%4338
Taka37.8%4040
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 51.5% over 3,109 decided matches+2.4%OctagonOctagon: 49.8% over 3,256 decided matches+0.7%RectangleRectangle: 49.5% over 3,520 decided matches+0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.2% over 3,179 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 49.1% over 3,593 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 49.0% over 3,547 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 48.5% over 3,494 decided matches-0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.4% over 3,177 decided matches-0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.0% over 3,366 decided matches-1.1%Fence and openFence and open: 47.9% over 1,805 decided matches-1.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Sarah54.3%51585053525351565653
Vanessa52.6%53525150545445515357
Kage52.2%57515251555251495054
Aoi51.6%53524451435258535156
Shun50.6%51464646446152545056
Pai50.4%53475555474855495047
Goh50.2%45504849545246505261
Akira50.1%51494848484753534960
Jean49.7%57494654544437465344
Brad49.7%53474654534647505448
El Blaze49.5%49535347495545494644
Eileen48.9%46515555455556494540
Dural48.8%38·46·4414·487567
Lei Fei47.4%44454542484953554450
Lau47.1%47474547514344444753
Wolf46.8%42504449464150495846
Jacky45.3%45434847404239474748
Taka43.3%42474747393837454251
Jeffry42.5%40243951344249494347
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.6 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.0 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
No wallsNo walls: 49.6% over 10,196 decided matches+0.5%WallsWalls: 49.0% over 20,045 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Sarah54.3%5453
Vanessa52.6%5255
Kage52.2%5254
Aoi51.6%5151
Shun50.6%4954
Pai50.4%5248
Goh50.2%4955
Akira50.1%5051
Jean49.7%5149
Brad49.7%5149
El Blaze49.5%4949
Eileen48.9%5047
Dural48.8%4844
Lei Fei47.4%4649
Lau47.1%4649
Wolf46.8%4844
Jacky45.3%4644
Taka43.3%4543
Jeffry42.5%4342
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia57,491
North America11,072
Europe7154
South America1199
Not recorded3311