VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Lei Fei

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.0%
Standing#9 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate4.0%
Most picked#15 of 19
Matches counted30,422
Unique players199
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
VanessaVanessa: 53.1% — 651 wins, 574 losses53.1%GohGoh: 52.8% — 885 wins, 790 losses52.8%EileenEileen: 52.8% — 247 wins, 221 losses52.8%AkiraAkira: 52.7% — 1,829 wins, 1,644 losses52.7%JeanJean: 52.3% — 858 wins, 783 losses52.3%BradBrad: 51.9% — 758 wins, 704 losses51.9%TakaTaka: 51.4% — 294 wins, 278 losses51.4%JackyJacky: 50.9% — 1,494 wins, 1,442 losses50.9%WolfWolf: 50.6% — 898 wins, 878 losses50.6%ShunShun: 50.0% — 847 wins, 847 losses50.0%LionLion: 49.3% — 874 wins, 899 losses49.3%SarahSarah: 48.8% — 836 wins, 879 losses48.8%AoiAoi: 48.3% — 641 wins, 687 losses48.3%El BlazeEl Blaze: 48.2% — 622 wins, 667 losses48.2%KageKage: 48.2% — 959 wins, 1,031 losses48.2%PaiPai: 48.0% — 688 wins, 744 losses48.0%LauLau: 47.7% — 934 wins, 1,024 losses47.7%JeffryJeffry: 44.9% — 785 wins, 965 losses44.9%DuralDural: 39.2% — 104 wins, 161 losses39.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Vanessa53.14%6515741,225
Goh52.84%8857901,675
Eileen52.78%247221468
Akira52.66%1,8291,6443,473
Jean52.29%8587831,641
Brad51.85%7587041,462
Taka51.40%294278572
Jacky50.89%1,4941,4422,936
Wolf50.56%8988781,776
Shun50.00%8478471,694
Lion49.29%8748991,773
Sarah48.75%8368791,715
Aoi48.27%6416871,328
El Blaze48.25%6226671,289
Kage48.19%9591,0311,990
Pai48.04%6887441,432
Lau47.70%9341,0241,958
Jeffry44.86%7859651,750
Dural39.25%104161265

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 50.8% over 3,034 decided matches+0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 50.3% over 2,988 decided matches+0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.2% over 3,094 decided matches+0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 3,093 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.8% over 2,987 decided matches-0.2%Single wallSingle wall: 49.8% over 3,063 decided matches-0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 49.5% over 3,020 decided matches-0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 49.5% over 1,498 decided matches-0.5%OctagonOctagon: 49.3% over 3,058 decided matches-0.7%OpenOpen: 49.3% over 3,084 decided matches-0.7%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa53.1%49575654504846525459
Goh52.8%49575352555648544849
Eileen52.8%55574453595850574454
Akira52.7%50525354555055545550
Jean52.3%52525245554953545353
Brad51.9%60494956544446544755
Taka51.4%59594643444347565847
Jacky50.9%48524847514855535355
Wolf50.6%57545256484952494748
Shun50.0%40535150544552505846
Lion49.3%50525257434643455248
Sarah48.8%45444745495554505346
Aoi48.3%52484846544657434546
El Blaze48.2%44515049474943464447
Kage48.2%45404550445347495451
Pai48.0%48504848515347385044
Lau47.7%50455352465447454243
Jeffry44.9%50374545495237414243
Dural39.2%45283741254356385033
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.2 to +1.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.843
WallsWalls: 50.0% over 18,286 decided matches-0.0%No wallsNo walls: 49.8% over 9,135 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa53.1%5453
Goh52.8%5253
Eileen52.8%5257
Akira52.7%5351
Jean52.3%5152
Brad51.9%5351
Taka51.4%5445
Jacky50.9%5051
Wolf50.6%5248
Shun50.0%5148
Lion49.3%5246
Sarah48.8%4851
Aoi48.3%4749
El Blaze48.2%4848
Kage48.2%4750
Pai48.0%4750
Lau47.7%4848
Jeffry44.9%4348
Dural39.2%4135
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 50.9% over 12,385 decided matches+0.8%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.5% over 11,717 decided matches+0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.3% over 12,119 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 50.3% over 12,276 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 50.0% over 12,505 decided matches-0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.9% over 12,642 decided matches-0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 49.9% over 12,394 decided matches-0.3%OpenOpen: 49.8% over 12,674 decided matches-0.3%Fence and openFence and open: 49.8% over 6,157 decided matches-0.3%OctagonOctagon: 49.6% over 12,575 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Taka51.8%56564851484846535549
Jean51.6%51534948535152525252
Akira51.6%50535253534952525350
Vanessa51.6%48535451514849535354
Goh51.6%51555149535348524951
Eileen51.3%53534651555350534754
Shun51.2%46535250534852525550
Brad51.1%55495054534848514953
Jacky50.5%49524949504952515252
Wolf50.2%53515153485051494850
Lion50.0%51515054474848485149
Sarah49.5%49484947505352495248
Kage49.4%48454851485151485351
El Blaze49.1%46524950474949484749
Aoi49.1%51494848514952464948
Lau48.7%50475151475146494647
Pai48.6%48504849515148434947
Jeffry47.2%50434847505044454845
Dural43.3%42384245394553425141
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.5 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.660
WallsWalls: 50.2% over 73,832 decided matches+0.0%No wallsNo walls: 50.0% over 37,455 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Taka51.8%5348
Jean51.6%5152
Akira51.6%5250
Vanessa51.6%5251
Goh51.6%5152
Eileen51.3%5154
Shun51.2%5250
Brad51.1%5151
Jacky50.5%5050
Wolf50.2%5150
Lion50.0%5148
Sarah49.5%4950
Kage49.4%4950
El Blaze49.1%4948
Aoi49.1%4850
Lau48.7%4949
Pai48.6%4850
Jeffry47.2%4748
Dural43.3%4442
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1423,746
South America163,450
North America142,941
Europe9679
Middle East140
Oceania282
Not recorded19402
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.2%
Standing#15 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate3.9%
Most picked#15 of 19
Matches counted25,304
Unique players185
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
AkiraAkira: 52.8% — 1,559 wins, 1,393 losses52.8%TakaTaka: 52.1% — 210 wins, 193 losses52.1%GohGoh: 51.9% — 805 wins, 745 losses51.9%JackyJacky: 51.3% — 1,287 wins, 1,222 losses51.3%BradBrad: 51.2% — 594 wins, 566 losses51.2%JeanJean: 51.2% — 767 wins, 731 losses51.2%WolfWolf: 50.6% — 828 wins, 809 losses50.6%ShunShun: 49.2% — 677 wins, 699 losses49.2%VanessaVanessa: 49.0% — 444 wins, 463 losses49.0%EileenEileen: 48.8% — 144 wins, 151 losses48.8%LionLion: 47.7% — 638 wins, 700 losses47.7%AoiAoi: 47.5% — 555 wins, 614 losses47.5%LauLau: 47.3% — 702 wins, 783 losses47.3%El BlazeEl Blaze: 47.2% — 465 wins, 520 losses47.2%SarahSarah: 47.0% — 693 wins, 782 losses47.0%KageKage: 46.9% — 735 wins, 831 losses46.9%PaiPai: 46.5% — 542 wins, 624 losses46.5%JeffryJeffry: 44.2% — 697 wins, 878 losses44.2%DuralDural: 38.8% — 100 wins, 158 losses38.8%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Akira52.81%1,5591,3932,952
Taka52.11%210193403
Goh51.94%8057451,550
Jacky51.30%1,2871,2222,509
Brad51.21%5945661,160
Jean51.20%7677311,498
Wolf50.58%8288091,637
Shun49.20%6776991,376
Vanessa48.95%444463907
Eileen48.81%144151295
Lion47.68%6387001,338
Aoi47.48%5556141,169
Lau47.27%7027831,485
El Blaze47.21%465520985
Sarah46.98%6937821,475
Kage46.93%7358311,566
Pai46.48%5426241,166
Jeffry44.25%6978781,575
Dural38.76%100158258

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 50.0% over 2,506 decided matches+0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 2,470 decided matches+0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 49.5% over 1,227 decided matches+0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.5% over 2,596 decided matches+0.3%OpenOpen: 49.2% over 2,550 decided matches+0.0%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.0% over 2,577 decided matches-0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.8% over 2,478 decided matches-0.4%Single wallSingle wall: 48.6% over 2,530 decided matches-0.6%OctagonOctagon: 48.4% over 2,524 decided matches-0.8%Full fenceFull fence: 48.2% over 2,536 decided matches-1.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Akira52.8%48515455565060535550
Taka52.1%61654046445042585847
Goh51.9%48555252535646534948
Jacky51.3%49524948514855535356
Brad51.2%58504256534245564959
Jean51.2%52505143534951515352
Wolf50.6%58565254464853494550
Shun49.2%36515349554448495648
Vanessa49.0%47535052464343474956
Eileen48.8%44534152656238435247
Lion47.7%48514955384445484847
Aoi47.5%50484846524461424544
Lau47.3%47425453465443484044
El Blaze47.2%42505045474649424448
Sarah47.0%45434446505351475141
Kage46.9%43394551434848465251
Pai46.5%44474446485246365049
Jeffry44.2%49364542504936424341
Dural38.8%45283541274056365033
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.7 to +1.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.896
No wallsNo walls: 49.1% over 7,550 decided matches-0.1%WallsWalls: 49.0% over 15,217 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Akira52.8%5352
Taka52.1%5547
Goh51.9%5252
Jacky51.3%5152
Brad51.2%5251
Jean51.2%5051
Wolf50.6%5348
Shun49.2%4948
Vanessa49.0%5049
Eileen48.8%4756
Lion47.7%5043
Aoi47.5%4647
Lau47.3%4748
El Blaze47.2%4547
Sarah47.0%4649
Kage46.9%4647
Pai46.5%4450
Jeffry44.2%4347
Dural38.8%4034
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 50.4% over 10,285 decided matches+0.7%Low fenceLow fence: 49.9% over 10,157 decided matches+0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.9% over 10,164 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.9% over 9,755 decided matches+0.1%Fence and openFence and open: 49.7% over 5,047 decided matches+0.0%OpenOpen: 49.6% over 10,508 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.4% over 10,319 decided matches-0.4%OctagonOctagon: 49.3% over 10,399 decided matches-0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 49.2% over 10,421 decided matches-0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.2% over 10,548 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Akira51.8%50525253545054525349
Taka51.2%56584550475140545348
Goh51.1%51555050525348514950
Shun51.0%45515351544851525451
Jean50.9%51524947515151515251
Jacky50.7%49524950504951525253
Brad50.6%54494754534648524954
Wolf50.2%54525152484952504751
Vanessa49.5%47515150484548495152
Lion49.1%50504954454749494949
Eileen49.1%49504350555442475350
Kage48.8%46444852484951475251
Aoi48.8%51504748504855454848
El Blaze48.6%45515048474851474748
Sarah48.4%49474747495250485144
Lau48.4%48465151485144504448
Pai47.7%46484548495147425049
Jeffry47.0%49424846514844464844
Dural43.1%42384145394453415141
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.7 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.986
WallsWalls: 49.6% over 61,572 decided matches-0.1%No wallsNo walls: 49.6% over 30,984 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Akira51.8%5251
Taka51.2%5348
Goh51.1%5152
Shun51.0%5151
Jean50.9%5151
Jacky50.7%5150
Brad50.6%5151
Wolf50.2%5149
Vanessa49.5%5049
Lion49.1%5047
Eileen49.1%4953
Kage48.8%4849
Aoi48.8%4849
El Blaze48.6%4848
Sarah48.4%4849
Lau48.4%4949
Pai47.7%4750
Jeffry47.0%4648
Dural43.1%4342
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1418,860
South America163,413
North America142,624
Europe9624
Middle East140
Oceania282
Not recorded19359
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate54.0%
Standing#2 of 19 · tier S
Pick rate4.7%
Most picked#10 of 19
Matches counted5,118
Unique players29
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
VanessaVanessa: 65.1% — 207 wins, 111 losses65.1%GohGoh: 64.0% — 80 wins, 45 losses64.0%JeanJean: 63.6% — 91 wins, 52 losses63.6%SarahSarah: 59.6% — 143 wins, 97 losses59.6%EileenEileen: 59.5% — 103 wins, 70 losses59.5%DuralDural: 57.1% — 4 wins, 3 losses57.1%PaiPai: 54.9% — 146 wins, 120 losses54.9%BradBrad: 54.3% — 164 wins, 138 losses54.3%LionLion: 54.2% — 236 wins, 199 losses54.2%AoiAoi: 54.1% — 86 wins, 73 losses54.1%ShunShun: 53.5% — 170 wins, 148 losses53.5%KageKage: 52.8% — 224 wins, 200 losses52.8%AkiraAkira: 51.8% — 270 wins, 251 losses51.8%El BlazeEl Blaze: 51.6% — 157 wins, 147 losses51.6%WolfWolf: 50.4% — 70 wins, 69 losses50.4%JeffryJeffry: 50.3% — 88 wins, 87 losses50.3%TakaTaka: 49.7% — 84 wins, 85 losses49.7%LauLau: 49.0% — 232 wins, 241 losses49.0%JackyJacky: 48.5% — 207 wins, 220 losses48.5%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Vanessa65.09%207111318
Goh64.00%8045125
Jean63.64%9152143
Sarah59.58%14397240
Eileen59.54%10370173
Dural57.14%437
Pai54.89%146120266
Brad54.30%164138302
Lion54.25%236199435
Aoi54.09%8673159
Shun53.46%170148318
Kage52.83%224200424
Akira51.82%270251521
El Blaze51.64%157147304
Wolf50.36%7069139
Jeffry50.29%8887175
Taka49.70%8485169
Lau49.05%232241473
Jacky48.48%207220427

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Full fenceFull fence: 56.6% over 484 decided matches+2.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 55.6% over 516 decided matches+1.6%Single wallSingle wall: 55.4% over 533 decided matches+1.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 54.8% over 509 decided matches+0.8%RectangleRectangle: 54.5% over 528 decided matches+0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 54.0% over 498 decided matches+0.1%OctagonOctagon: 53.8% over 534 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 53.7% over 518 decided matches-0.3%Fence and openFence and open: 49.8% over 271 decided matches-4.2%OpenOpen: 49.8% over 534 decided matches-4.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa65.1%55647865615756716868
Goh64.0%67767346776767613661
Jean63.6%43705860705467835370
Sarah59.6%47566140436865657169
Eileen59.5%81675056535362793161
Dural57.1%··100·067·100··
Pai54.9%61586859675655505025
Brad54.3%73457758575950464041
Lion54.2%62596362555038336153
Aoi54.1%67445243655938535062
Shun53.5%52614452505380517639
Kage52.8%58444449496746586152
Akira51.8%58554747514736615550
El Blaze51.6%5056506250540564444
Wolf50.4%4625556478780435635
Jeffry50.3%53674862407550403857
Taka49.7%56387838452067525846
Lau49.0%59545050455461374740
Jacky48.5%39494644504852495549
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.4 to +5.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.625
WallsWalls: 54.9% over 3,069 decided matches+0.9%No wallsNo walls: 52.9% over 1,585 decided matches-1.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa65.1%6662
Goh64.0%6168
Jean63.6%6265
Sarah59.6%5761
Eileen59.5%6357
Dural57.1%10050
Pai54.9%5849
Brad54.3%5551
Lion54.2%5752
Aoi54.1%5262
Shun53.5%5544
Kage52.8%5256
Akira51.8%5449
El Blaze51.6%5450
Wolf50.4%5157
Jeffry50.3%5155
Taka49.7%5340
Lau49.0%4946
Jacky48.5%4749
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 53.4% over 1,962 decided matches+1.1%RectangleRectangle: 53.3% over 2,100 decided matches+1.0%Full fenceFull fence: 53.2% over 1,973 decided matches+0.9%Half fenceHalf fence: 53.1% over 2,094 decided matches+0.8%Single wallSingle wall: 52.8% over 2,186 decided matches+0.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 52.4% over 1,955 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.9% over 2,119 decided matches-0.4%OctagonOctagon: 51.1% over 2,176 decided matches-1.2%OpenOpen: 50.7% over 2,166 decided matches-1.6%Fence and openFence and open: 50.3% over 1,110 decided matches-2.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean58.7%48625457645563625662
Vanessa57.5%52576556565350655759
Goh57.5%61596646626756534961
Sarah56.6%50545747506061546862
Eileen55.1%65585156545159633557
Taka53.5%56496853523567505850
Brad52.9%60496454565847484847
Lion52.6%56555558525147455650
Pai52.5%54536154595357494841
Shun52.4%52604848504960526745
Dural51.9%··75·4055·75··
Kage51.6%56494749485751515652
El Blaze50.9%48564757475233514950
Aoi50.9%51475048576040485250
Akira50.5%51555048494742535452
Wolf50.3%47395757596025435342
Lau49.7%56525051475254454845
Jeffry49.3%52584857416248434852
Jacky49.0%46494646515053465149
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.8 to +2.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
WallsWalls: 52.7% over 12,260 decided matches+0.4%No wallsNo walls: 51.8% over 6,471 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean58.7%5761
Vanessa57.5%5855
Goh57.5%5662
Sarah56.6%5558
Eileen55.1%5655
Taka53.5%5547
Brad52.9%5353
Lion52.6%5451
Pai52.5%5351
Shun52.4%5447
Dural51.9%7550
Kage51.6%5153
El Blaze50.9%5250
Aoi50.9%4956
Akira50.5%5249
Wolf50.3%5152
Lau49.7%5048
Jeffry49.3%5150
Jacky49.0%4750
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia94,886
North America5317
Europe1655
South America537
Not recorded1343