VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Lau

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.5%
Standing#4 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate6.4%
Most picked#4 of 19
Matches counted47,083
Unique players333
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
VanessaVanessa: 54.3% — 1,009 wins, 849 losses54.3%JeanJean: 54.3% — 1,364 wins, 1,149 losses54.3%JeffryJeffry: 52.3% — 1,416 wins, 1,290 losses52.3%Lei FeiLei Fei: 52.3% — 1,024 wins, 934 losses52.3%WolfWolf: 52.3% — 1,400 wins, 1,279 losses52.3%AoiAoi: 52.0% — 1,091 wins, 1,008 losses52.0%GohGoh: 52.0% — 1,386 wins, 1,281 losses52.0%AkiraAkira: 51.8% — 2,483 wins, 2,309 losses51.8%ShunShun: 51.7% — 1,451 wins, 1,358 losses51.7%PaiPai: 51.6% — 1,283 wins, 1,203 losses51.6%BradBrad: 51.5% — 1,372 wins, 1,290 losses51.5%LionLion: 51.3% — 1,549 wins, 1,468 losses51.3%JackyJacky: 51.0% — 2,387 wins, 2,298 losses51.0%SarahSarah: 50.7% — 1,172 wins, 1,141 losses50.7%KageKage: 49.6% — 1,706 wins, 1,730 losses49.6%El BlazeEl Blaze: 49.6% — 1,095 wins, 1,112 losses49.6%TakaTaka: 49.3% — 450 wins, 463 losses49.3%EileenEileen: 48.5% — 455 wins, 484 losses48.5%DuralDural: 47.1% — 162 wins, 182 losses47.1%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Vanessa54.31%1,0098491,858
Jean54.28%1,3641,1492,513
Jeffry52.33%1,4161,2902,706
Lei Fei52.30%1,0249341,958
Wolf52.26%1,4001,2792,679
Aoi51.98%1,0911,0082,099
Goh51.97%1,3861,2812,667
Akira51.82%2,4832,3094,792
Shun51.66%1,4511,3582,809
Pai51.61%1,2831,2032,486
Brad51.54%1,3721,2902,662
Lion51.34%1,5491,4683,017
Jacky50.95%2,3872,2984,685
Sarah50.67%1,1721,1412,313
Kage49.65%1,7061,7303,436
El Blaze49.61%1,0951,1122,207
Taka49.29%450463913
Eileen48.46%455484939
Dural47.09%162182344

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 53.2% over 4,745 decided matches+1.7%Fence and openFence and open: 52.2% over 2,360 decided matches+0.7%RectangleRectangle: 51.9% over 4,568 decided matches+0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 51.8% over 4,921 decided matches+0.3%OctagonOctagon: 51.7% over 4,751 decided matches+0.2%OpenOpen: 51.6% over 4,611 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 51.6% over 4,652 decided matches+0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.4% over 4,592 decided matches-0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.7% over 4,718 decided matches-0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 49.9% over 4,802 decided matches-1.6%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa54.3%55585057565451564655
Jean54.3%46595358495556565855
Jeffry52.3%51545453525550515052
Lei Fei52.3%50554748544653555857
Wolf52.3%54554854425352575454
Aoi52.0%54655445475059485348
Goh52.0%51575248534655545649
Akira51.8%52535152495359495254
Shun51.7%57534853485556495151
Pai51.6%55505149535246525153
Brad51.5%51525548515252555150
Lion51.3%54475255515258535145
Jacky51.0%54515348465445515353
Sarah50.7%48545045564955495349
Kage49.6%49545251504844514950
El Blaze49.6%50525553504847454650
Taka49.3%56454151504952445554
Eileen48.5%49385638495450565346
Dural47.1%49565046385256523246
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.8 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.3 to +1.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.318
WallsWalls: 51.8% over 28,295 decided matches+0.3%No wallsNo walls: 51.0% over 14,065 decided matches-0.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa54.3%5455
Jean54.3%5553
Jeffry52.3%5253
Lei Fei52.3%5252
Wolf52.3%5449
Aoi52.0%5349
Goh52.0%5349
Akira51.8%5152
Shun51.7%5251
Pai51.6%5153
Brad51.5%5251
Lion51.3%5250
Jacky51.0%5151
Sarah50.7%5051
Kage49.6%5149
El Blaze49.6%5049
Taka49.3%4951
Eileen48.5%4849
Dural47.1%4744
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.6% over 18,545 decided matches+0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 51.5% over 9,649 decided matches+0.6%RectangleRectangle: 51.2% over 18,607 decided matches+0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.1% over 18,798 decided matches+0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 51.0% over 20,106 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 51.0% over 19,013 decided matches+0.1%OctagonOctagon: 50.9% over 19,515 decided matches+0.0%OpenOpen: 50.9% over 18,830 decided matches-0.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.3% over 18,442 decided matches-0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 50.0% over 19,509 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean52.5%49545254505354535454
Vanessa52.4%53545153535352534952
Shun51.7%54535052505356505250
Wolf51.5%53525053475151545252
Lei Fei51.3%50534949534954515453
Jeffry51.1%51515151505351515151
Akira51.1%51515152495255505152
Goh51.1%51535150514952525350
Pai51.0%52515150535049515251
Brad51.0%50525350515149535049
Lion50.9%52495151505155515248
Aoi50.9%52565347495153495149
Jacky50.6%52515249485248505152
Sarah50.0%48505047525052485149
Dural49.9%49564852475255524449
Kage49.7%49515149504947514951
El Blaze49.7%50505351504848484850
Taka49.5%52504651475053465351
Eileen48.6%48445242495150515247
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.1 to +1.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.407
WallsWalls: 51.0% over 114,013 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 50.6% over 57,352 decided matches-0.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean52.5%5352
Vanessa52.4%5253
Shun51.7%5251
Wolf51.5%5250
Lei Fei51.3%5151
Jeffry51.1%5151
Akira51.1%5151
Goh51.1%5250
Pai51.0%5151
Brad51.0%5151
Lion50.9%5150
Aoi50.9%5149
Jacky50.6%5150
Sarah50.0%4950
Dural49.9%5049
Kage49.7%5050
El Blaze49.7%5049
Taka49.5%5049
Eileen48.6%4849
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia340,080
South America105,493
North America152,802
Europe14495
Middle East130
Oceania511
Not recorded121,170
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.8%
Standing#7 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate5.8%
Most picked#6 of 19
Matches counted36,689
Unique players308
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
VanessaVanessa: 53.1% — 710 wins, 627 losses53.1%JeanJean: 52.8% — 1,181 wins, 1,054 losses52.8%Lei FeiLei Fei: 52.7% — 783 wins, 702 losses52.7%WolfWolf: 52.4% — 1,216 wins, 1,106 losses52.4%AkiraAkira: 51.4% — 1,964 wins, 1,859 losses51.4%GohGoh: 51.1% — 1,133 wins, 1,082 losses51.1%JackyJacky: 50.9% — 1,843 wins, 1,777 losses50.9%ShunShun: 50.8% — 1,086 wins, 1,053 losses50.8%JeffryJeffry: 50.6% — 1,197 wins, 1,170 losses50.6%SarahSarah: 50.5% — 973 wins, 953 losses50.5%PaiPai: 50.5% — 918 wins, 900 losses50.5%BradBrad: 50.3% — 1,067 wins, 1,054 losses50.3%AoiAoi: 50.2% — 844 wins, 838 losses50.2%LionLion: 49.6% — 997 wins, 1,011 losses49.6%El BlazeEl Blaze: 49.4% — 703 wins, 721 losses49.4%KageKage: 49.0% — 1,286 wins, 1,337 losses49.0%DuralDural: 48.7% — 145 wins, 153 losses48.7%EileenEileen: 48.3% — 281 wins, 301 losses48.3%TakaTaka: 48.2% — 320 wins, 344 losses48.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Vanessa53.10%7106271,337
Jean52.84%1,1811,0542,235
Lei Fei52.73%7837021,485
Wolf52.37%1,2161,1062,322
Akira51.37%1,9641,8593,823
Goh51.15%1,1331,0822,215
Jacky50.91%1,8431,7773,620
Shun50.77%1,0861,0532,139
Jeffry50.57%1,1971,1702,367
Sarah50.52%9739531,926
Pai50.50%9189001,818
Brad50.31%1,0671,0542,121
Aoi50.18%8448381,682
Lion49.65%9971,0112,008
El Blaze49.37%7037211,424
Kage49.03%1,2861,3372,623
Dural48.66%145153298
Eileen48.28%281301582
Taka48.19%320344664

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 52.5% over 3,744 decided matches+1.7%RectangleRectangle: 51.9% over 3,436 decided matches+1.1%Fence and openFence and open: 51.8% over 1,851 decided matches+1.0%OpenOpen: 51.6% over 3,598 decided matches+0.7%Full fenceFull fence: 50.8% over 3,877 decided matches-0.0%Single wallSingle wall: 50.7% over 3,678 decided matches-0.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.5% over 3,585 decided matches-0.4%OctagonOctagon: 50.1% over 3,671 decided matches-0.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.7% over 3,688 decided matches-1.1%Low fenceLow fence: 49.5% over 3,748 decided matches-1.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa53.1%55554661525251554454
Jean52.8%45575055485554555852
Lei Fei52.7%53584647544657526056
Wolf52.4%55534755425454565453
Akira51.4%50545153495258475155
Goh51.1%50575146534656525551
Jacky50.9%52495248455944505155
Shun50.8%56524852475151485252
Jeffry50.6%50515350515248485051
Sarah50.5%47525143574957505149
Pai50.5%52465446555242505252
Brad50.3%50505447535250515245
Aoi50.2%51655442444854485248
Lion49.6%53444655534659485147
El Blaze49.4%51555353514047434751
Kage49.0%46535149494745505151
Dural48.7%52555347395353553844
Eileen48.3%50454739465348515945
Taka48.2%54473851414658485156
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.9 to +1.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.799
WallsWalls: 50.9% over 22,001 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 50.6% over 11,024 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa53.1%5353
Jean52.8%5352
Lei Fei52.7%5352
Wolf52.4%5350
Akira51.4%5152
Goh51.1%5250
Jacky50.9%5053
Shun50.8%5150
Jeffry50.6%5051
Sarah50.5%4952
Pai50.5%5053
Brad50.3%5051
Aoi50.2%5246
Lion49.6%4949
El Blaze49.4%5048
Kage49.0%5049
Dural48.7%5044
Eileen48.3%4948
Taka48.2%4847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.2% over 14,602 decided matches+0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 51.2% over 7,605 decided matches+0.6%RectangleRectangle: 51.2% over 14,008 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 50.7% over 14,666 decided matches+0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.7% over 14,678 decided matches+0.2%Single wallSingle wall: 50.6% over 15,010 decided matches+0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 50.6% over 15,843 decided matches+0.1%OctagonOctagon: 50.2% over 15,123 decided matches-0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 49.8% over 15,215 decided matches-0.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.7% over 14,393 decided matches-0.8%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean51.8%48525252505353535452
Wolf51.7%53525055475152545252
Vanessa51.7%53534853515251534752
Lei Fei51.6%52544949524956505652
Shun51.2%53525052505153495251
Dural51.0%51554953485153544849
Akira50.8%50525152485155495153
Goh50.7%51535149514952515250
Jacky50.6%51505249485447505053
Brad50.4%49515349535149515047
Pai50.3%50485348534945505251
Jeffry50.2%51505149505250505150
Aoi50.0%51565346474951495149
Lion49.9%52484950514855495149
Sarah49.9%48495046525053485149
El Blaze49.8%51525251514649484850
Kage49.3%48515048504947515051
Taka49.0%51504550434957465152
Eileen48.6%49484942485048495646
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.4 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.713
WallsWalls: 50.6% over 88,647 decided matches+0.0%No wallsNo walls: 50.4% over 44,891 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean51.8%5252
Wolf51.7%5250
Vanessa51.7%5152
Lei Fei51.6%5151
Shun51.2%5151
Dural51.0%5249
Akira50.8%5151
Goh50.7%5150
Jacky50.6%5052
Brad50.4%5051
Pai50.3%5051
Jeffry50.2%5051
Aoi50.0%5148
Lion49.9%5050
Sarah49.9%4950
El Blaze49.8%5049
Kage49.3%5050
Taka49.0%4947
Eileen48.6%4948
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia429,381
South America105,492
North America152,537
Europe15295
Middle East130
Oceania511
Not recorded101,129
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate54.0%
Standing#3 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate9.9%
Most picked#1 of 19
Matches counted10,394
Unique players59
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeanJean: 65.8% — 183 wins, 95 losses65.8%JeffryJeffry: 64.6% — 219 wins, 120 losses64.6%AoiAoi: 59.2% — 247 wins, 170 losses59.2%VanessaVanessa: 57.4% — 299 wins, 222 losses57.4%BradBrad: 56.4% — 305 wins, 236 losses56.4%GohGoh: 56.0% — 253 wins, 199 losses56.0%LionLion: 54.7% — 552 wins, 457 losses54.7%PaiPai: 54.6% — 365 wins, 303 losses54.6%ShunShun: 54.5% — 365 wins, 305 losses54.5%AkiraAkira: 53.6% — 519 wins, 450 losses53.6%TakaTaka: 52.2% — 130 wins, 119 losses52.2%KageKage: 51.7% — 420 wins, 393 losses51.7%WolfWolf: 51.5% — 184 wins, 173 losses51.5%SarahSarah: 51.4% — 199 wins, 188 losses51.4%JackyJacky: 51.1% — 544 wins, 521 losses51.1%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.0% — 241 wins, 232 losses51.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 50.1% — 392 wins, 391 losses50.1%EileenEileen: 48.7% — 174 wins, 183 losses48.7%DuralDural: 37.0% — 17 wins, 29 losses37.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jean65.83%18395278
Jeffry64.60%219120339
Aoi59.23%247170417
Vanessa57.39%299222521
Brad56.38%305236541
Goh55.97%253199452
Lion54.71%5524571,009
Pai54.64%365303668
Shun54.48%365305670
Akira53.56%519450969
Taka52.21%130119249
Kage51.66%420393813
Wolf51.54%184173357
Sarah51.42%199188387
Jacky51.08%5445211,065
Lei Fei50.95%241232473
El Blaze50.06%392391783
Eileen48.74%174183357
Dural36.96%172946

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 57.0% over 1,080 decided matches+3.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 56.0% over 1,001 decided matches+2.1%Full fenceFull fence: 55.4% over 1,044 decided matches+1.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 54.7% over 1,007 decided matches+0.8%Single wallSingle wall: 54.7% over 974 decided matches+0.8%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 54.5% over 1,030 decided matches+0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 53.8% over 509 decided matches-0.1%RectangleRectangle: 51.9% over 1,132 decided matches-2.1%OpenOpen: 51.8% over 1,013 decided matches-2.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.4% over 1,054 decided matches-2.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean65.8%64726771535664716270
Jeffry64.6%52735878616962695562
Aoi59.2%70655654616182545751
Vanessa57.4%53656350676353614957
Brad56.4%57595959425160694565
Goh56.0%57606060564252646044
Lion54.7%55546355486358625042
Pai54.6%64653856495451564957
Shun54.5%58614957516664544947
Akira53.6%58485048505965585653
Taka52.2%63405350706317386551
Kage51.7%56585360505143524450
Wolf51.5%48775143384436605462
Sarah51.4%51684553534647455850
Jacky51.1%59555448473848526245
Lei Fei51.0%41465050554639635360
El Blaze50.1%48445855476146494448
Eileen48.7%47337535565653624248
Dural37.0%3360330255010001767
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+2.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.1 to +4.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.399
WallsWalls: 54.9% over 6,294 decided matches+0.9%No wallsNo walls: 52.6% over 3,041 decided matches-1.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean65.8%6860
Jeffry64.6%6464
Aoi59.2%6057
Vanessa57.4%5663
Brad56.4%5952
Goh56.0%6047
Lion54.7%5751
Pai54.6%5553
Shun54.5%5454
Akira53.6%5354
Taka52.2%5061
Kage51.7%5450
Wolf51.5%5448
Sarah51.4%5350
Jacky51.1%5543
Lei Fei51.0%5154
El Blaze50.1%4952
Eileen48.7%4753
Dural37.0%2944
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 53.4% over 4,392 decided matches+1.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 53.0% over 3,943 decided matches+0.8%Fence and openFence and open: 52.9% over 2,044 decided matches+0.8%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 52.6% over 4,049 decided matches+0.5%Full fenceFull fence: 52.5% over 4,263 decided matches+0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 52.4% over 4,120 decided matches+0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 52.3% over 4,003 decided matches+0.2%RectangleRectangle: 51.3% over 4,599 decided matches-0.8%OpenOpen: 51.3% over 4,164 decided matches-0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 50.6% over 4,294 decided matches-1.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean58.7%59655662515462605663
Jeffry57.0%55575765545854595256
Aoi54.2%56575452555666515250
Vanessa54.2%52575952595653545153
Brad53.5%55555657445153614757
Shun53.4%58575154526161514948
Pai53.0%58594754515255525152
Lion52.9%53535553495756565347
Goh52.7%52555157524652555748
Akira52.2%54495052505458555252
Kage51.0%53535253515045534851
Taka51.0%54484954575729465849
Jacky50.5%53525249474550525648
Lei Fei50.3%44485049534846555255
Sarah50.2%47584850514846485351
Wolf49.9%51605041434844545157
El Blaze49.5%49455450485348504850
Eileen48.6%47405843535154544650
Dural42.8%38624340336210003550
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.1 to +2.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.383
WallsWalls: 52.5% over 25,366 decided matches+0.4%No wallsNo walls: 51.4% over 12,461 decided matches-0.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean58.7%6056
Jeffry57.0%5756
Aoi54.2%5453
Vanessa54.2%5457
Brad53.5%5551
Shun53.4%5353
Pai53.0%5352
Lion52.9%5451
Goh52.7%5449
Akira52.2%5252
Kage51.0%5251
Taka51.0%5154
Jacky50.5%5247
Lei Fei50.3%5052
Sarah50.2%5151
Wolf49.9%5150
El Blaze49.5%4950
Eileen48.6%4751
Dural42.8%4046
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia110,699
North America6265
Europe5200
South America91
Not recorded1541