VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Kage

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.5%
Standing#5 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate6.5%
Most picked#3 of 19
Matches counted47,950
Unique players392
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 55.8% — 266 wins, 211 losses55.8%WolfWolf: 54.4% — 1,603 wins, 1,343 losses54.4%SarahSarah: 53.0% — 1,337 wins, 1,188 losses53.0%ShunShun: 52.6% — 1,325 wins, 1,194 losses52.6%JackyJacky: 52.5% — 2,507 wins, 2,273 losses52.5%VanessaVanessa: 52.3% — 1,018 wins, 928 losses52.3%BradBrad: 52.0% — 1,502 wins, 1,388 losses52.0%GohGoh: 51.9% — 1,316 wins, 1,219 losses51.9%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.8% — 1,031 wins, 959 losses51.8%El BlazeEl Blaze: 51.6% — 1,026 wins, 963 losses51.6%AkiraAkira: 51.3% — 2,618 wins, 2,482 losses51.3%JeffryJeffry: 51.3% — 1,466 wins, 1,390 losses51.3%JeanJean: 50.8% — 1,403 wins, 1,360 losses50.8%AoiAoi: 50.7% — 971 wins, 945 losses50.7%LauLau: 50.4% — 1,730 wins, 1,706 losses50.4%EileenEileen: 49.9% — 420 wins, 421 losses49.9%PaiPai: 49.9% — 1,190 wins, 1,195 losses49.9%LionLion: 49.8% — 1,497 wins, 1,510 losses49.8%TakaTaka: 44.6% — 468 wins, 581 losses44.6%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural55.77%266211477
Wolf54.41%1,6031,3432,946
Sarah52.95%1,3371,1882,525
Shun52.60%1,3251,1942,519
Jacky52.45%2,5072,2734,780
Vanessa52.31%1,0189281,946
Brad51.97%1,5021,3882,890
Goh51.91%1,3161,2192,535
Lei Fei51.81%1,0319591,990
El Blaze51.58%1,0269631,989
Akira51.33%2,6182,4825,100
Jeffry51.33%1,4661,3902,856
Jean50.78%1,4031,3602,763
Aoi50.68%9719451,916
Lau50.35%1,7301,7063,436
Eileen49.94%420421841
Pai49.90%1,1901,1952,385
Lion49.78%1,4971,5103,007
Taka44.61%4685811,049

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 53.3% over 2,469 decided matches+1.8%Low fenceLow fence: 52.2% over 4,736 decided matches+0.7%Half fenceHalf fence: 52.0% over 4,814 decided matches+0.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.9% over 4,813 decided matches+0.4%Single wallSingle wall: 51.5% over 4,931 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.4% over 4,678 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 51.3% over 4,825 decided matches-0.2%OctagonOctagon: 51.3% over 4,820 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 50.8% over 4,778 decided matches-0.8%OpenOpen: 50.6% over 4,790 decided matches-0.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural55.8%46546360577150534363
Wolf54.4%56535556595855535150
Sarah53.0%49525050565456525556
Shun52.6%55555152565459465253
Jacky52.5%53535056545349495451
Vanessa52.3%59555753464955485253
Brad52.0%52535355525253525150
Goh51.9%54485657545050554849
Lei Fei51.8%55605550564753514649
El Blaze51.6%55495551544854534947
Akira51.3%47514951545052555054
Jeffry51.3%54545053455552505152
Jean50.8%51425349555453535046
Aoi50.7%52535352475250475352
Lau50.4%51464849505256495150
Eileen49.9%44435649455164584852
Pai49.9%45475149515558485048
Lion49.8%45555151484551525248
Taka44.6%48655040433350453944
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +1.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.997
No wallsNo walls: 51.4% over 14,457 decided matches-0.1%WallsWalls: 51.4% over 28,728 decided matches-0.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural55.8%5364
Wolf54.4%5456
Sarah53.0%5156
Shun52.6%5254
Jacky52.5%5253
Vanessa52.3%5449
Brad52.0%5351
Goh51.9%5351
Lei Fei51.8%5350
El Blaze51.6%5250
Akira51.3%5153
Jeffry51.3%5251
Jean50.8%5052
Aoi50.7%5250
Lau50.4%4951
Eileen49.9%5050
Pai49.9%4851
Lion49.8%5147
Taka44.6%4740
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.8% over 10,096 decided matches+1.0%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.3% over 19,759 decided matches+0.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.0% over 18,687 decided matches+0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 50.9% over 19,374 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 50.9% over 20,122 decided matches+0.0%OctagonOctagon: 50.8% over 19,730 decided matches-0.0%Full fenceFull fence: 50.7% over 19,751 decided matches-0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.6% over 18,006 decided matches-0.3%RectangleRectangle: 50.5% over 19,620 decided matches-0.3%OpenOpen: 50.3% over 19,617 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf52.6%53525352555454525350
Shun52.5%54535253545356495352
Dural52.3%46465756526150514756
Vanessa51.4%54535451485153495152
Sarah51.4%50515149535153525352
Brad51.2%51525152525153525150
Jacky51.2%51515053515149495251
Akira51.0%49515151525052535052
Goh50.9%53485453525051514949
Lei Fei50.6%52555249524949524749
El Blaze50.5%52485151525050525048
Jeffry50.5%52515051475350505051
Jean50.5%50455249525252525049
Lau50.3%51494951505153495149
Aoi50.1%51525250485150485151
Pai50.1%49485050505352514949
Lion49.7%47525051484752495050
Eileen49.6%47465249505056544951
Taka46.7%49585144453950484545
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.4 to +0.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.651
WallsWalls: 50.8% over 115,553 decided matches+0.0%No wallsNo walls: 50.7% over 59,113 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf52.6%5253
Shun52.5%5253
Dural52.3%5157
Vanessa51.4%5251
Sarah51.4%5152
Brad51.2%5151
Jacky51.2%5151
Akira51.0%5151
Goh50.9%5150
Lei Fei50.6%5150
El Blaze50.5%5150
Jeffry50.5%5150
Jean50.5%5051
Lau50.3%5050
Aoi50.1%5150
Pai50.1%4951
Lion49.7%5048
Eileen49.6%5050
Taka46.7%4943
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia436,660
South America57,475
North America93,744
Europe15458
Middle East57
Oceania150
Not recorded32,766
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.8%
Standing#3 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate6.3%
Most picked#3 of 19
Matches counted39,533
Unique players356
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 56.1% — 249 wins, 195 losses56.1%WolfWolf: 54.1% — 1,381 wins, 1,173 losses54.1%El BlazeEl Blaze: 53.1% — 828 wins, 730 losses53.1%SarahSarah: 53.1% — 1,145 wins, 1,011 losses53.1%Lei FeiLei Fei: 53.1% — 831 wins, 735 losses53.1%JackyJacky: 52.8% — 2,025 wins, 1,811 losses52.8%AkiraAkira: 52.2% — 2,193 wins, 2,004 losses52.2%BradBrad: 52.2% — 1,225 wins, 1,121 losses52.2%ShunShun: 52.2% — 1,063 wins, 975 losses52.2%EileenEileen: 51.8% — 293 wins, 273 losses51.8%GohGoh: 51.7% — 1,150 wins, 1,074 losses51.7%JeffryJeffry: 51.2% — 1,316 wins, 1,253 losses51.2%JeanJean: 51.1% — 1,311 wins, 1,255 losses51.1%AoiAoi: 51.0% — 874 wins, 839 losses51.0%VanessaVanessa: 51.0% — 740 wins, 711 losses51.0%LauLau: 51.0% — 1,337 wins, 1,286 losses51.0%LionLion: 50.6% — 1,209 wins, 1,180 losses50.6%PaiPai: 50.0% — 984 wins, 985 losses50.0%TakaTaka: 44.1% — 339 wins, 429 losses44.1%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural56.08%249195444
Wolf54.07%1,3811,1732,554
El Blaze53.15%8287301,558
Sarah53.11%1,1451,0112,156
Lei Fei53.07%8317351,566
Jacky52.79%2,0251,8113,836
Akira52.25%2,1932,0044,197
Brad52.22%1,2251,1212,346
Shun52.16%1,0639752,038
Eileen51.77%293273566
Goh51.71%1,1501,0742,224
Jeffry51.23%1,3161,2532,569
Jean51.09%1,3111,2552,566
Aoi51.02%8748391,713
Vanessa51.00%7407111,451
Lau50.97%1,3371,2862,623
Lion50.61%1,2091,1802,389
Pai49.97%9849851,969
Taka44.14%339429768

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 53.2% over 2,053 decided matches+1.4%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 53.0% over 3,924 decided matches+1.2%Single wallSingle wall: 52.4% over 3,968 decided matches+0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 52.3% over 3,916 decided matches+0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 52.2% over 3,946 decided matches+0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 51.9% over 4,016 decided matches+0.0%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.4% over 3,873 decided matches-0.4%OctagonOctagon: 51.3% over 4,021 decided matches-0.6%OpenOpen: 51.2% over 3,992 decided matches-0.7%RectangleRectangle: 50.4% over 3,936 decided matches-1.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural56.1%46526462597150534167
Wolf54.1%55545557585952525050
El Blaze53.1%57515653565051555051
Sarah53.1%49495050555457535659
Lei Fei53.1%57615549575252544849
Jacky52.8%52535056535450505452
Akira52.2%49524952555154565055
Brad52.2%53545357555151515050
Shun52.2%57544854545358465353
Eileen51.8%47435755435469575049
Goh51.7%53485758545147524849
Jeffry51.2%53525054465454505054
Jean51.1%53425351565554535046
Aoi51.0%54545353475351465353
Vanessa51.0%56555952424753455054
Lau51.0%54474951515355504949
Lion50.6%46565252494453525248
Pai50.0%44465248506058485147
Taka44.1%48585041452754493644
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.5 to +0.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.799
No wallsNo walls: 52.0% over 11,876 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 51.7% over 23,716 decided matches-0.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural56.1%5366
Wolf54.1%5456
El Blaze53.1%5352
Sarah53.1%5156
Lei Fei53.1%5453
Jacky52.8%5253
Akira52.2%5154
Brad52.2%5352
Shun52.2%5253
Eileen51.8%5249
Goh51.7%5351
Jeffry51.2%5151
Jean51.1%5052
Aoi51.0%5250
Vanessa51.0%5348
Lau51.0%5051
Lion50.6%5247
Pai50.0%4852
Taka44.1%4738
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.9% over 8,403 decided matches+0.8%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.7% over 15,174 decided matches+0.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.4% over 16,258 decided matches+0.4%Single wallSingle wall: 51.3% over 16,198 decided matches+0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 51.2% over 16,428 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.0% over 16,069 decided matches-0.0%OctagonOctagon: 50.9% over 16,450 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 50.7% over 16,322 decided matches-0.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.6% over 14,840 decided matches-0.4%RectangleRectangle: 50.5% over 16,180 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural52.5%47465757526150514658
Wolf52.3%53525253545553515250
Shun52.1%55525053535356495352
Akira51.7%50525152525153545053
Jacky51.6%51525153515251505252
Brad51.6%52525154545152525050
Sarah51.5%49505149525154525353
El Blaze51.5%53495252535149535149
Lei Fei51.2%54565248525149534849
Goh50.9%53485554515149504850
Vanessa50.8%53535451475052485052
Eileen50.8%48465252515158535149
Lau50.7%52495052505153495049
Jean50.7%51455250525353525049
Jeffry50.5%51505052475351505052
Aoi50.2%52525251485050485152
Lion50.1%48525152494752495051
Pai50.1%49485049505552514949
Taka46.6%48545145483651504445
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.0 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.6 to +0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.986
WallsWalls: 51.0% over 95,330 decided matches-0.0%No wallsNo walls: 51.0% over 48,589 decided matches-0.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural52.5%5157
Wolf52.3%5253
Shun52.1%5253
Akira51.7%5152
Jacky51.6%5252
Brad51.6%5252
Sarah51.5%5152
El Blaze51.5%5251
Lei Fei51.2%5251
Goh50.9%5151
Vanessa50.8%5150
Eileen50.8%5151
Lau50.7%5050
Jean50.7%5051
Jeffry50.5%5151
Aoi50.2%5150
Lion50.1%5049
Pai50.1%4951
Taka46.6%4943
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia528,463
South America57,433
North America83,574
Europe14341
Middle East57
Oceania150
Not recorded42,259
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.9%
Standing#9 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate8.0%
Most picked#5 of 19
Matches counted8,417
Unique players67
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 56.6% — 222 wins, 170 losses56.6%VanessaVanessa: 56.2% — 278 wins, 217 losses56.2%ShunShun: 54.5% — 262 wins, 219 losses54.5%GohGoh: 53.4% — 166 wins, 145 losses53.4%JeffryJeffry: 52.3% — 150 wins, 137 losses52.3%SarahSarah: 52.0% — 192 wins, 177 losses52.0%DuralDural: 51.5% — 17 wins, 16 losses51.5%JackyJacky: 51.1% — 482 wins, 462 losses51.1%BradBrad: 50.9% — 277 wins, 267 losses50.9%PaiPai: 49.5% — 206 wins, 210 losses49.5%LauLau: 48.3% — 393 wins, 420 losses48.3%AoiAoi: 47.8% — 97 wins, 106 losses47.8%Lei FeiLei Fei: 47.2% — 200 wins, 224 losses47.2%AkiraAkira: 47.1% — 425 wins, 478 losses47.1%JeanJean: 46.7% — 92 wins, 105 losses46.7%LionLion: 46.6% — 288 wins, 330 losses46.6%EileenEileen: 46.2% — 127 wins, 148 losses46.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 45.9% — 198 wins, 233 losses45.9%TakaTaka: 45.9% — 129 wins, 152 losses45.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf56.63%222170392
Vanessa56.16%278217495
Shun54.47%262219481
Goh53.38%166145311
Jeffry52.26%150137287
Sarah52.03%192177369
Dural51.52%171633
Jacky51.06%482462944
Brad50.92%277267544
Pai49.52%206210416
Lau48.34%393420813
Aoi47.78%97106203
Lei Fei47.17%200224424
Akira47.07%425478903
Jean46.70%92105197
Lion46.60%288330618
Eileen46.18%127148275
El Blaze45.94%198233431
Taka45.91%129152281

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 53.4% over 416 decided matches+3.5%RectangleRectangle: 52.6% over 842 decided matches+2.7%Low fenceLow fence: 51.6% over 820 decided matches+1.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.5% over 805 decided matches+1.6%OctagonOctagon: 51.2% over 799 decided matches+1.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.8% over 868 decided matches+0.9%Full fenceFull fence: 48.5% over 809 decided matches-1.5%Single wallSingle wall: 47.9% over 963 decided matches-2.0%OpenOpen: 47.6% over 798 decided matches-2.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 47.2% over 889 decided matches-2.7%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf56.6%65465748655373606351
Vanessa56.2%66575154585361566150
Shun54.5%48597044635762455152
Goh53.4%59464850614375775250
Jeffry52.3%62735050405733505935
Sarah52.0%51674752625352464745
Dural51.5%5060600075·506025
Jacky51.1%58554955554740465450
Brad50.9%46515146375265605548
Pai49.5%50504856553659504852
Lau48.3%44424740504957485650
Aoi47.8%38365241535247545246
Lei Fei47.2%42565651513354423948
Akira47.1%35445046524541525246
Jean46.7%26385237484538675950
Lion46.6%43494646434844545444
Eileen46.2%35435338504854594356
El Blaze45.9%50434848494261484231
Taka45.9%50854838404733324843
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.3 to +3.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.711
WallsWalls: 50.3% over 5,012 decided matches+0.4%No wallsNo walls: 49.0% over 2,581 decided matches-0.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf56.6%5756
Vanessa56.2%5754
Shun54.5%5257
Goh53.4%5650
Jeffry52.3%5745
Sarah52.0%5253
Dural51.5%5444
Jacky51.1%5351
Brad50.9%5146
Pai49.5%5049
Lau48.3%4650
Aoi47.8%4751
Lei Fei47.2%4844
Akira47.1%4748
Jean46.7%4647
Lion46.6%4845
Eileen46.2%4551
El Blaze45.9%4742
Taka45.9%4843
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.5% over 1,693 decided matches+1.9%RectangleRectangle: 50.8% over 3,440 decided matches+1.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.7% over 3,501 decided matches+1.0%OctagonOctagon: 50.4% over 3,280 decided matches+0.8%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.2% over 3,166 decided matches+0.5%Low fenceLow fence: 50.1% over 3,305 decided matches+0.5%Single wallSingle wall: 49.0% over 3,924 decided matches-0.7%Full fenceFull fence: 48.6% over 3,323 decided matches-1.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.4% over 3,513 decided matches-1.2%OpenOpen: 48.3% over 3,295 decided matches-1.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf54.2%54495451565364586050
Shun54.2%51576351585559495253
Vanessa53.2%58545251545357515551
Goh50.9%56454851544662625147
Sarah50.7%51564950555249504946
Jeffry50.4%57605346435442495240
Dural50.4%384752404062·545542
Pai49.9%49505055524455534951
Brad49.7%48495046425159545348
Jacky49.5%52504952514843475251
Aoi49.4%45475343525250505147
Lau49.0%47474847495055475249
Lei Fei48.4%44515351524349494448
Akira47.9%43455147524744494948
Lion47.8%43494849454849515046
Jean47.7%37425244504544565350
Eileen47.3%43465243474849554454
Taka47.2%51735042414647404847
El Blaze47.1%48484748474552494540
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.7 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.6 to +2.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
WallsWalls: 49.9% over 20,223 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 49.1% over 10,524 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf54.2%5553
Shun54.2%5355
Vanessa53.2%5353
Goh50.9%5248
Sarah50.7%5151
Jeffry50.4%5347
Dural50.4%5050
Pai49.9%5149
Brad49.7%5047
Jacky49.5%5050
Aoi49.4%4951
Lau49.0%4849
Lei Fei48.4%4947
Akira47.9%4849
Lion47.8%4846
Jean47.7%4748
Eileen47.3%4750
Taka47.2%4944
El Blaze47.1%4845
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia48,197
North America9170
Europe9117
South America442
Not recorded2507