VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Jeffry

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.7%
Standing#7 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate5.7%
Most picked#6 of 19
Matches counted41,670
Unique players368
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
Lei FeiLei Fei: 55.1% — 965 wins, 785 losses55.1%AoiAoi: 53.7% — 1,031 wins, 890 losses53.7%SarahSarah: 52.9% — 1,195 wins, 1,064 losses52.9%DuralDural: 52.6% — 240 wins, 216 losses52.6%JeanJean: 52.5% — 1,236 wins, 1,118 losses52.5%PaiPai: 52.5% — 971 wins, 879 losses52.5%AkiraAkira: 51.5% — 2,426 wins, 2,288 losses51.5%LionLion: 51.3% — 1,168 wins, 1,109 losses51.3%JackyJacky: 51.2% — 2,130 wins, 2,032 losses51.2%GohGoh: 50.6% — 1,227 wins, 1,199 losses50.6%WolfWolf: 50.6% — 1,351 wins, 1,320 losses50.6%El BlazeEl Blaze: 50.5% — 752 wins, 738 losses50.5%ShunShun: 49.3% — 1,191 wins, 1,223 losses49.3%TakaTaka: 48.8% — 327 wins, 343 losses48.8%KageKage: 48.7% — 1,390 wins, 1,466 losses48.7%BradBrad: 48.3% — 1,134 wins, 1,214 losses48.3%LauLau: 47.7% — 1,290 wins, 1,416 losses47.7%VanessaVanessa: 47.4% — 809 wins, 897 losses47.4%EileenEileen: 46.7% — 299 wins, 341 losses46.7%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Lei Fei55.14%9657851,750
Aoi53.67%1,0318901,921
Sarah52.90%1,1951,0642,259
Dural52.63%240216456
Jean52.51%1,2361,1182,354
Pai52.49%9718791,850
Akira51.46%2,4262,2884,714
Lion51.30%1,1681,1092,277
Jacky51.18%2,1302,0324,162
Goh50.58%1,2271,1992,426
Wolf50.58%1,3511,3202,671
El Blaze50.47%7527381,490
Shun49.34%1,1911,2232,414
Taka48.81%327343670
Kage48.67%1,3901,4662,856
Brad48.30%1,1341,2142,348
Lau47.67%1,2901,4162,706
Vanessa47.42%8098971,706
Eileen46.72%299341640

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 52.5% over 4,186 decided matches+1.8%Full fenceFull fence: 51.5% over 4,216 decided matches+0.8%Fence and openFence and open: 51.5% over 2,037 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.4% over 4,189 decided matches+0.6%OctagonOctagon: 51.0% over 4,291 decided matches+0.3%Low fenceLow fence: 50.7% over 4,157 decided matches+0.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.4% over 4,070 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 4,200 decided matches-0.6%Single wallSingle wall: 49.6% over 4,036 decided matches-1.1%OpenOpen: 49.1% over 4,232 decided matches-1.6%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lei Fei55.1%50635555514863595857
Aoi53.7%51535554605159496346
Sarah52.9%57574659505253515654
Dural52.6%64515250515460505050
Jean52.5%52565249545746535650
Pai52.5%46494953555459605154
Akira51.5%54504851555152525249
Lion51.3%56504956554950485547
Jacky51.2%55554751514955534948
Goh50.6%56495752515147455147
Wolf50.6%50475152495155525451
El Blaze50.5%49535347485054515046
Shun49.3%50545551424846514947
Taka48.8%47514947405652445246
Kage48.7%46465047554548504948
Brad48.3%47535040484846465549
Lau47.7%49464647484550495048
Vanessa47.4%48464447474743535347
Eileen46.7%51455546403646534749
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.3 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.1 to +2.5); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.155
WallsWalls: 51.1% over 25,152 decided matches+0.4%No wallsNo walls: 49.8% over 12,425 decided matches-0.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lei Fei55.1%5752
Aoi53.7%5452
Sarah52.9%5452
Dural52.6%5352
Jean52.5%5353
Pai52.5%5154
Akira51.5%5152
Lion51.3%5250
Jacky51.2%5149
Goh50.6%5250
Wolf50.6%5150
El Blaze50.5%5048
Shun49.3%5245
Taka48.8%4847
Kage48.7%4849
Brad48.3%4948
Lau47.7%4847
Vanessa47.4%4947
Eileen46.7%4941
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 51.3% over 17,055 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.2% over 16,572 decided matches+0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 51.1% over 8,307 decided matches+0.5%OctagonOctagon: 50.8% over 17,563 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 50.7% over 17,114 decided matches+0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 50.5% over 16,800 decided matches+0.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.3% over 16,095 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 17,081 decided matches-0.4%Single wallSingle wall: 50.1% over 16,415 decided matches-0.5%OpenOpen: 49.6% over 17,314 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lei Fei52.8%50575253505056555255
Aoi52.5%51525352555255525749
Sarah51.9%55544855505252515452
Jean51.5%52545149525349525251
Lion51.2%54525053545050495348
Pai51.1%48505151515153535151
Dural51.0%55505049545157514948
Akira51.0%52505051535152515150
Jacky50.8%52534850515054525049
Shun50.5%51525451475050525049
Goh50.3%52515350525048485049
Wolf50.1%49495051485053525251
El Blaze49.9%49515149485053514948
Kage49.5%48495049534750505049
Brad49.1%48534946485049485348
Lau48.9%49494949504749494949
Eileen48.8%50485148454645524951
Vanessa48.5%49484748474945525049
Taka48.3%47514847435050485047
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.7 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.1 to +1.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.184
WallsWalls: 50.7% over 101,480 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 50.1% over 50,529 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lei Fei52.8%5352
Aoi52.5%5352
Sarah51.9%5351
Jean51.5%5252
Lion51.2%5251
Pai51.1%5151
Dural51.0%5151
Akira51.0%5151
Jacky50.8%5150
Shun50.5%5249
Goh50.3%5150
Wolf50.1%5050
El Blaze49.9%5048
Kage49.5%4950
Brad49.1%4949
Lau48.9%4949
Eileen48.8%5047
Vanessa48.5%4948
Taka48.3%4847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia729,759
South America48,032
North America162,573
Europe21,699
Middle East413
Oceania140
Not recorded52,278
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.0%
Standing#6 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate6.1%
Most picked#5 of 19
Matches counted38,346
Unique players354
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
Lei FeiLei Fei: 55.8% — 878 wins, 697 losses55.8%AoiAoi: 54.0% — 981 wins, 836 losses54.0%DuralDural: 53.2% — 222 wins, 195 losses53.2%JeanJean: 52.6% — 1,191 wins, 1,073 losses52.6%PaiPai: 52.5% — 925 wins, 837 losses52.5%SarahSarah: 52.3% — 1,076 wins, 983 losses52.3%AkiraAkira: 52.1% — 2,309 wins, 2,123 losses52.1%JackyJacky: 51.6% — 2,036 wins, 1,906 losses51.6%El BlazeEl Blaze: 51.0% — 693 wins, 666 losses51.0%WolfWolf: 51.0% — 1,282 wins, 1,234 losses51.0%LionLion: 50.2% — 1,002 wins, 994 losses50.2%GohGoh: 49.9% — 1,160 wins, 1,163 losses49.9%TakaTaka: 49.9% — 296 wins, 297 losses49.9%ShunShun: 49.5% — 1,108 wins, 1,129 losses49.5%LauLau: 49.4% — 1,170 wins, 1,197 losses49.4%KageKage: 48.8% — 1,253 wins, 1,316 losses48.8%VanessaVanessa: 48.5% — 728 wins, 774 losses48.5%EileenEileen: 48.3% — 262 wins, 280 losses48.3%BradBrad: 48.0% — 995 wins, 1,079 losses48.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Lei Fei55.75%8786971,575
Aoi53.99%9818361,817
Dural53.24%222195417
Jean52.61%1,1911,0732,264
Pai52.50%9258371,762
Sarah52.26%1,0769832,059
Akira52.10%2,3092,1234,432
Jacky51.65%2,0361,9063,942
El Blaze50.99%6936661,359
Wolf50.95%1,2821,2342,516
Lion50.20%1,0029941,996
Goh49.94%1,1601,1632,323
Taka49.92%296297593
Shun49.53%1,1081,1292,237
Lau49.43%1,1701,1972,367
Kage48.77%1,2531,3162,569
Vanessa48.47%7287741,502
Eileen48.34%262280542
Brad47.97%9951,0792,074

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 52.7% over 3,842 decided matches+1.6%Full fenceFull fence: 51.8% over 3,897 decided matches+0.8%OctagonOctagon: 51.7% over 3,924 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.7% over 3,877 decided matches+0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 51.5% over 1,895 decided matches+0.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.2% over 3,739 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 50.7% over 3,813 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 50.5% over 3,703 decided matches-0.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 3,867 decided matches-1.0%OpenOpen: 49.3% over 3,887 decided matches-1.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lei Fei55.8%51645558505164585759
Aoi54.0%52555454595259506346
Dural53.2%67485356415858505650
Jean52.6%53575150545646525750
Pai52.5%45494853565459595154
Sarah52.3%58564659485152525551
Akira52.1%55504851555352535350
Jacky51.6%55554751535055535048
El Blaze51.0%50515347495257545045
Wolf51.0%50475153495355525453
Lion50.2%55484857524750485445
Goh49.9%54485751515046455047
Taka49.9%44535248385656475248
Shun49.5%51535453435044514848
Lau49.4%50494750494852525049
Kage48.8%47485046544646505046
Vanessa48.5%49454550474744535350
Eileen48.3%53476046423950524853
Brad48.0%48534739464845495450
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.4 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.1 to +2.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.142
WallsWalls: 51.5% over 23,146 decided matches+0.5%No wallsNo walls: 50.1% over 11,403 decided matches-0.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lei Fei55.8%5753
Aoi54.0%5552
Dural53.2%5550
Jean52.6%5353
Pai52.5%5155
Sarah52.3%5450
Akira52.1%5253
Jacky51.6%5250
El Blaze51.0%5149
Wolf51.0%5151
Lion50.2%5148
Goh49.9%5149
Taka49.9%4948
Shun49.5%5246
Lau49.4%5049
Kage48.8%4949
Vanessa48.5%4948
Eileen48.3%5143
Brad48.0%4948
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 51.3% over 15,676 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.2% over 15,367 decided matches+0.6%OctagonOctagon: 51.1% over 16,088 decided matches+0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 51.0% over 7,731 decided matches+0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 50.8% over 15,827 decided matches+0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.7% over 14,863 decided matches+0.0%Single wallSingle wall: 50.5% over 15,136 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 50.4% over 15,485 decided matches-0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 15,772 decided matches-0.6%OpenOpen: 49.7% over 15,964 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lei Fei53.0%51585254495256545256
Aoi52.8%51535352555355525749
Jean51.5%52545050525348525350
Akira51.3%53505051535252525150
Sarah51.3%55544855485151515350
Dural51.3%57485053465456515348
Pai51.1%48505151525153525251
Jacky51.1%52534950525054535049
Shun50.7%51515352485149525049
Lion50.4%53504953524950495348
Wolf50.3%49495051495153525251
El Blaze50.1%49505249485153525047
Goh50.0%51505350515048485049
Lau49.8%49504951504850504950
Eileen49.6%52495448464748524952
Kage49.5%49505048534749505048
Vanessa49.1%50484850474945515151
Taka48.7%46514948425051485048
Brad48.7%48524845474949495249
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.7 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.0 to +1.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.169
WallsWalls: 50.9% over 93,593 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 50.2% over 46,585 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lei Fei53.0%5452
Aoi52.8%5352
Jean51.5%5252
Akira51.3%5152
Sarah51.3%5250
Dural51.3%5250
Pai51.1%5151
Jacky51.1%5150
Shun50.7%5149
Lion50.4%5150
Wolf50.3%5050
El Blaze50.1%5049
Goh50.0%5050
Lau49.8%5049
Eileen49.6%5148
Kage49.5%4949
Vanessa49.1%5049
Taka48.7%4947
Brad48.7%4948
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia627,078
South America48,032
North America162,533
Europe31,305
Middle East413
Oceania140
Not recorded52,037
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate47.1%
Standing#16 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate3.0%
Most picked#16 of 19
Matches counted3,324
Unique players47
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
GohGoh: 65.0% — 67 wins, 36 losses65.0%SarahSarah: 59.5% — 119 wins, 81 losses59.5%LionLion: 59.1% — 166 wins, 115 losses59.1%PaiPai: 52.3% — 46 wins, 42 losses52.3%BradBrad: 50.7% — 139 wins, 135 losses50.7%JeanJean: 50.0% — 45 wins, 45 losses50.0%Lei FeiLei Fei: 49.7% — 87 wins, 88 losses49.7%AoiAoi: 48.1% — 50 wins, 54 losses48.1%KageKage: 47.7% — 137 wins, 150 losses47.7%ShunShun: 46.9% — 83 wins, 94 losses46.9%DuralDural: 46.1% — 18 wins, 21 losses46.1%El BlazeEl Blaze: 45.0% — 59 wins, 72 losses45.0%WolfWolf: 44.5% — 69 wins, 86 losses44.5%JackyJacky: 42.7% — 94 wins, 126 losses42.7%AkiraAkira: 41.5% — 117 wins, 165 losses41.5%TakaTaka: 40.3% — 31 wins, 46 losses40.3%VanessaVanessa: 39.7% — 81 wins, 123 losses39.7%EileenEileen: 37.8% — 37 wins, 61 losses37.8%LauLau: 35.4% — 120 wins, 219 losses35.4%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Goh65.05%6736103
Sarah59.50%11981200
Lion59.07%166115281
Pai52.27%464288
Brad50.73%139135274
Jean50.00%454590
Lei Fei49.71%8788175
Aoi48.08%5054104
Kage47.74%137150287
Shun46.89%8394177
Dural46.15%182139
El Blaze45.04%5972131
Wolf44.52%6986155
Jacky42.73%94126220
Akira41.49%117165282
Taka40.26%314677
Vanessa39.71%81123204
Eileen37.76%376198
Lau35.40%120219339

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 51.2% over 344 decided matches+4.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.0% over 333 decided matches+4.0%Fence and openFence and open: 50.7% over 142 decided matches+3.6%RectangleRectangle: 50.3% over 344 decided matches+3.2%Full fenceFull fence: 48.0% over 319 decided matches+0.9%OpenOpen: 47.2% over 345 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.1% over 312 decided matches+0.0%OctagonOctagon: 43.6% over 367 decided matches-3.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 41.4% over 331 decided matches-5.7%Single wallSingle wall: 40.2% over 333 decided matches-6.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Goh65.0%806270645660100678055
Sarah59.5%36595356717375336767
Lion59.1%61746050726255495855
Pai52.3%7150676014500674762
Brad50.7%42536944594760246244
Jean50.0%2733620567150584756
Lei Fei49.7%47335238602550606243
Aoi48.1%43366767673350366750
Kage47.7%38275050604367504165
Shun46.9%48567311333271506336
Dural46.1%06740171000100·0·
El Blaze45.0%41735050412220254362
Wolf44.5%60405036473057544539
Jacky42.7%55524143323364353947
Akira41.5%48414435541944413933
Taka40.3%71381733466033335029
Vanessa39.7%33503532504535525024
Eileen37.8%403638461700624340
Lau35.4%48274222393138314538
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.6 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.5 to +4.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.887
WallsWalls: 46.9% over 2,006 decided matches-0.2%No wallsNo walls: 46.3% over 1,022 decided matches-0.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Goh65.0%7057
Sarah59.5%5269
Lion59.1%5762
Pai52.3%5845
Brad50.7%5051
Jean50.0%4460
Lei Fei49.7%4945
Aoi48.1%4850
Kage47.7%4355
Shun46.9%5333
Dural46.1%3567
El Blaze45.0%4641
Wolf44.5%4938
Jacky42.7%4338
Akira41.5%4239
Taka40.3%3944
Vanessa39.7%4337
Eileen37.8%4326
Lau35.4%3636
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 51.8% over 1,315 decided matches+2.7%Fence and openFence and open: 51.6% over 576 decided matches+2.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.1% over 1,205 decided matches+2.0%RectangleRectangle: 50.6% over 1,379 decided matches+1.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.3% over 1,309 decided matches+1.2%Full fenceFull fence: 49.6% over 1,287 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 48.9% over 1,350 decided matches-0.2%OctagonOctagon: 47.7% over 1,475 decided matches-1.4%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 45.1% over 1,232 decided matches-4.0%Single wallSingle wall: 45.0% over 1,279 decided matches-4.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Sarah58.7%46605556666778476261
Goh58.7%67635955615767535951
Lion57.5%60766149665851515753
Brad52.8%50576347615154356047
Lei Fei50.7%48425243593852575248
Jean50.5%42425719566256554457
Pai50.1%55555452305125644456
Kage49.6%43404754574658514860
Aoi48.8%46425757574654455750
El Blaze47.8%48614948453446424455
Dural47.7%07440201001475·0·
Shun47.7%51586226403668465638
Wolf46.7%51455141433852525046
Akira46.1%51484743512851444840
Jacky45.8%52494447374054454747
Taka44.9%55473340455543444741
Eileen44.0%4444434635310584748
Vanessa43.9%41504336504643534832
Lau43.0%45434335464246414844
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.7 to +2.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.729
WallsWalls: 49.1% over 7,887 decided matches-0.0%No wallsNo walls: 48.6% over 3,944 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Sarah58.7%5564
Goh58.7%6156
Lion57.5%5758
Brad52.8%5253
Lei Fei50.7%4950
Jean50.5%4758
Pai50.1%5347
Kage49.6%4753
Aoi48.8%4951
El Blaze47.8%4844
Dural47.7%3468
Shun47.7%5239
Wolf46.7%4943
Akira46.1%4742
Jacky45.8%4742
Taka44.9%4546
Eileen44.0%4642
Vanessa43.9%4641
Lau43.0%4344
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia172,681
North America1740
Europe2394
South America160
Not recorded5241