VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Jean

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.3%
Standing#14 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate5.2%
Most picked#11 of 19
Matches counted38,434
Unique players300
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 53.6% — 1,407 wins, 1,218 losses53.6%TakaTaka: 53.4% — 344 wins, 300 losses53.4%GohGoh: 51.9% — 1,254 wins, 1,163 losses51.9%AkiraAkira: 51.5% — 2,243 wins, 2,111 losses51.5%VanessaVanessa: 50.8% — 833 wins, 808 losses50.8%ShunShun: 50.4% — 854 wins, 840 losses50.4%PaiPai: 49.6% — 881 wins, 895 losses49.6%JackyJacky: 49.5% — 1,862 wins, 1,896 losses49.5%KageKage: 49.2% — 1,360 wins, 1,403 losses49.2%AoiAoi: 48.7% — 743 wins, 782 losses48.7%BradBrad: 48.6% — 1,032 wins, 1,090 losses48.6%LionLion: 48.1% — 1,056 wins, 1,141 losses48.1%Lei FeiLei Fei: 47.7% — 783 wins, 858 losses47.7%JeffryJeffry: 47.5% — 1,118 wins, 1,236 losses47.5%SarahSarah: 47.4% — 993 wins, 1,101 losses47.4%DuralDural: 47.1% — 200 wins, 225 losses47.1%LauLau: 45.7% — 1,149 wins, 1,364 losses45.7%EileenEileen: 45.0% — 253 wins, 309 losses45.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 43.2% — 574 wins, 755 losses43.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf53.60%1,4071,2182,625
Taka53.42%344300644
Goh51.88%1,2541,1632,417
Akira51.52%2,2432,1114,354
Vanessa50.76%8338081,641
Shun50.41%8548401,694
Pai49.61%8818951,776
Jacky49.55%1,8621,8963,758
Kage49.22%1,3601,4032,763
Aoi48.72%7437821,525
Brad48.63%1,0321,0902,122
Lion48.07%1,0561,1412,197
Lei Fei47.71%7838581,641
Jeffry47.49%1,1181,2362,354
Sarah47.42%9931,1012,094
Dural47.06%200225425
Lau45.72%1,1491,3642,513
Eileen45.02%253309562
El Blaze43.19%5747551,329

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Full fenceFull fence: 50.1% over 3,843 decided matches+0.9%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.9% over 3,824 decided matches+0.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.8% over 3,893 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 49.3% over 3,860 decided matches-0.0%Single wallSingle wall: 49.2% over 3,856 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 49.0% over 4,025 decided matches-0.3%OctagonOctagon: 48.9% over 3,723 decided matches-0.4%RectangleRectangle: 48.7% over 3,833 decided matches-0.6%Fence and openFence and open: 48.5% over 1,812 decided matches-0.8%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.5% over 3,883 decided matches-0.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf53.6%60525557525748525446
Taka53.4%52445551605848714754
Goh51.9%49455750545249575247
Akira51.5%55484953515349505251
Vanessa50.8%46495252505147555450
Shun50.4%51485051534550545250
Pai49.6%52515151554647464849
Jacky49.5%49504849474953484854
Kage49.2%49584751454647475054
Aoi48.7%47435651544950464346
Brad48.6%48464746495250504752
Lion48.1%51525046434853434948
Lei Fei47.7%48484855455147464747
Jeffry47.5%48444851464354474450
Sarah47.4%44524544484941485147
Dural47.1%47395536524748415650
Lau45.7%54414742514544444245
Eileen45.0%54484758384351512825
El Blaze43.2%40434847394630414346
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +1.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.843
WallsWalls: 49.3% over 22,999 decided matches+0.0%No wallsNo walls: 49.2% over 11,741 decided matches-0.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf53.6%5552
Taka53.4%5257
Goh51.9%5251
Akira51.5%5152
Vanessa50.8%5150
Shun50.4%5149
Pai49.6%5050
Jacky49.5%4950
Kage49.2%5048
Aoi48.7%4850
Brad48.6%4751
Lion48.1%4946
Lei Fei47.7%4948
Jeffry47.5%4747
Sarah47.4%4748
Dural47.1%4650
Lau45.7%4547
Eileen45.0%4935
El Blaze43.2%4443
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Full fenceFull fence: 50.0% over 15,699 decided matches+0.4%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.9% over 14,993 decided matches+0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.8% over 15,959 decided matches+0.2%OpenOpen: 49.6% over 15,803 decided matches-0.0%RectangleRectangle: 49.6% over 15,695 decided matches-0.0%OctagonOctagon: 49.5% over 15,344 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.5% over 15,913 decided matches-0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 15,247 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 49.2% over 16,407 decided matches-0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 49.2% over 7,389 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Taka52.6%53485153545549615153
Wolf51.9%55515253515351515348
Goh51.3%50495350525150545149
Akira50.8%52504953515250505150
Shun50.7%51495051514750515353
Vanessa50.2%49505151505048515250
Jacky50.1%50515049485052504952
Kage49.5%50554851484848485051
Pai49.5%51515049524848484949
Brad49.4%48494849485050504952
Aoi49.1%47475349524950494748
Lion48.9%51515048464951465050
Sarah48.7%46504848494945505050
Jeffry48.5%48464951484751484849
Dural48.5%49455244495048435450
Lei Fei48.4%49475152474948484848
Lau47.5%51464846504746474646
El Blaze46.5%45475048434940464746
Eileen46.0%50474652434749513634
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.3 to +0.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.455
WallsWalls: 49.7% over 92,937 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 49.5% over 48,123 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Taka52.6%5254
Wolf51.9%5351
Goh51.3%5151
Akira50.8%5151
Shun50.7%5150
Vanessa50.2%5050
Jacky50.1%5050
Kage49.5%5049
Pai49.5%5050
Brad49.4%4950
Aoi49.1%4950
Lion48.9%4948
Sarah48.7%4949
Jeffry48.5%4848
Dural48.5%4850
Lei Fei48.4%4948
Lau47.5%4748
El Blaze46.5%4746
Eileen46.0%4841
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1126,608
South America38,720
North America133,171
Europe11633
Middle East73
Oceania130
Not recorded131,153
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.5%
Standing#13 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate5.7%
Most picked#8 of 19
Matches counted36,022
Unique players276
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 53.8% — 1,356 wins, 1,166 losses53.8%GohGoh: 52.0% — 1,207 wins, 1,114 losses52.0%AkiraAkira: 51.6% — 2,157 wins, 2,020 losses51.6%TakaTaka: 51.5% — 280 wins, 264 losses51.5%ShunShun: 50.7% — 808 wins, 787 losses50.7%VanessaVanessa: 50.0% — 744 wins, 743 losses50.0%JackyJacky: 49.7% — 1,770 wins, 1,790 losses49.7%PaiPai: 49.5% — 830 wins, 847 losses49.5%AoiAoi: 49.1% — 721 wins, 748 losses49.1%EileenEileen: 49.0% — 224 wins, 233 losses49.0%KageKage: 48.9% — 1,255 wins, 1,311 losses48.9%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.8% — 731 wins, 767 losses48.8%BradBrad: 48.4% — 976 wins, 1,039 losses48.4%LionLion: 47.8% — 944 wins, 1,032 losses47.8%DuralDural: 47.5% — 196 wins, 217 losses47.5%JeffryJeffry: 47.4% — 1,073 wins, 1,191 losses47.4%SarahSarah: 47.4% — 958 wins, 1,065 losses47.4%LauLau: 47.2% — 1,054 wins, 1,181 losses47.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 43.9% — 537 wins, 686 losses43.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf53.77%1,3561,1662,522
Goh52.00%1,2071,1142,321
Akira51.64%2,1572,0204,177
Taka51.47%280264544
Shun50.66%8087871,595
Vanessa50.03%7447431,487
Jacky49.72%1,7701,7903,560
Pai49.49%8308471,677
Aoi49.08%7217481,469
Eileen49.02%224233457
Kage48.91%1,2551,3112,566
Lei Fei48.80%7317671,498
Brad48.44%9761,0392,015
Lion47.77%9441,0321,976
Dural47.46%196217413
Jeffry47.39%1,0731,1912,264
Sarah47.36%9581,0652,023
Lau47.16%1,0541,1812,235
El Blaze43.91%5376861,223

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Full fenceFull fence: 50.2% over 3,641 decided matches+0.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.2% over 3,542 decided matches+0.7%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.1% over 3,630 decided matches+0.7%OpenOpen: 49.5% over 3,603 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 49.3% over 3,761 decided matches-0.1%OctagonOctagon: 49.3% over 3,499 decided matches-0.2%Single wallSingle wall: 49.0% over 3,611 decided matches-0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 48.9% over 1,740 decided matches-0.6%RectangleRectangle: 48.6% over 3,603 decided matches-0.9%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.5% over 3,626 decided matches-0.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf53.8%61525557525848525446
Goh52.0%49445751555148585248
Akira51.6%55494854515349505152
Taka51.5%50445644595648714648
Shun50.7%52465152544452545249
Vanessa50.0%46485151485047545250
Jacky49.7%49514850474754484954
Pai49.5%51525151554747464748
Aoi49.1%46435750555150464348
Eileen49.0%55545461415054522725
Kage48.9%47584749444546475054
Lei Fei48.8%48504957475149494748
Brad48.4%49464647505150494652
Lion47.8%52524947434651425047
Dural47.5%47395539514748415552
Jeffry47.4%47434950464454484350
Sarah47.4%44524444484842485147
Lau47.2%55435045524546454248
El Blaze43.9%40415147414633444247
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +1.5); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.841
WallsWalls: 49.5% over 21,541 decided matches+0.0%No wallsNo walls: 49.3% over 10,975 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf53.8%5552
Goh52.0%5251
Akira51.6%5152
Taka51.5%5154
Shun50.7%5149
Vanessa50.0%5049
Jacky49.7%4950
Pai49.5%5050
Aoi49.1%4851
Eileen49.0%5240
Kage48.9%5048
Lei Fei48.8%5049
Brad48.4%4751
Lion47.8%4945
Dural47.5%4750
Jeffry47.4%4747
Sarah47.4%4748
Lau47.2%4748
El Blaze43.9%4444
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.1% over 13,907 decided matches+0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 50.0% over 14,857 decided matches+0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.9% over 14,887 decided matches+0.2%OpenOpen: 49.8% over 14,787 decided matches+0.1%OctagonOctagon: 49.6% over 14,410 decided matches-0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 14,233 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 49.5% over 14,768 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 49.5% over 15,341 decided matches-0.2%Fence and openFence and open: 49.5% over 7,092 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 49.5% over 14,913 decided matches-0.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf52.0%55505353505451515348
Goh51.4%50485350525150555150
Akira50.9%52504953515250505050
Shun50.9%51495051524851515353
Taka50.9%51475247525449605048
Jacky50.1%50515050484953504952
Vanessa49.8%49494950495048515150
Aoi49.4%47475349525050494749
Pai49.4%50515050524848484848
Kage49.3%49554850484747485051
Brad49.3%48494749495050504952
Lei Fei49.1%49485153494949494849
Eileen49.0%51515055465251513639
Dural48.8%49455246485048435352
Lion48.7%52504948464850455049
Sarah48.6%46504847494945505149
Jeffry48.5%48465050484752484750
Lau48.2%52484848504747474648
El Blaze46.8%45465148444941474747
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.4 to +0.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.711
WallsWalls: 49.8% over 87,062 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 49.6% over 45,041 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf52.0%5351
Goh51.4%5251
Akira50.9%5151
Shun50.9%5151
Taka50.9%5151
Jacky50.1%5050
Vanessa49.8%5050
Aoi49.4%4951
Pai49.4%4950
Kage49.3%5049
Brad49.3%4950
Lei Fei49.1%4949
Eileen49.0%5046
Dural48.8%4850
Lion48.7%4948
Sarah48.6%4949
Jeffry48.5%4848
Lau48.2%4848
El Blaze46.8%4747
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia824,379
South America38,714
North America123,057
Europe10608
Middle East73
Oceania130
Not recorded111,077
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate46.4%
Standing#17 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate2.2%
Most picked#19 of 19
Matches counted2,412
Unique players41
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
TakaTaka: 64.0% — 64 wins, 36 losses64.0%VanessaVanessa: 57.8% — 89 wins, 65 losses57.8%KageKage: 53.3% — 105 wins, 92 losses53.3%BradBrad: 52.3% — 56 wins, 51 losses52.3%PaiPai: 51.5% — 51 wins, 48 losses51.5%LionLion: 50.7% — 112 wins, 109 losses50.7%JeffryJeffry: 50.0% — 45 wins, 45 losses50.0%WolfWolf: 49.5% — 51 wins, 52 losses49.5%SarahSarah: 49.3% — 35 wins, 36 losses49.3%GohGoh: 49.0% — 47 wins, 49 losses49.0%AkiraAkira: 48.6% — 86 wins, 91 losses48.6%JackyJacky: 46.5% — 92 wins, 106 losses46.5%ShunShun: 46.5% — 46 wins, 53 losses46.5%AoiAoi: 39.3% — 22 wins, 34 losses39.3%Lei FeiLei Fei: 36.4% — 52 wins, 91 losses36.4%El BlazeEl Blaze: 34.9% — 37 wins, 69 losses34.9%LauLau: 34.2% — 95 wins, 183 losses34.2%DuralDural: 33.3% — 4 wins, 8 losses33.3%EileenEileen: 27.6% — 29 wins, 76 losses27.6%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Taka64.00%6436100
Vanessa57.79%8965154
Kage53.30%10592197
Brad52.34%5651107
Pai51.52%514899
Lion50.68%112109221
Jeffry50.00%454590
Wolf49.51%5152103
Sarah49.30%353671
Goh48.96%474996
Akira48.59%8691177
Jacky46.46%92106198
Shun46.46%465399
Aoi39.29%223456
Lei Fei36.36%5291143
El Blaze34.91%3769106
Lau34.17%95183278
Dural33.33%4812
Eileen27.62%2976105

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 51.8% over 245 decided matches+5.5%RectangleRectangle: 50.9% over 230 decided matches+4.5%Full fenceFull fence: 49.0% over 202 decided matches+2.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 47.5% over 257 decided matches+1.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 46.1% over 282 decided matches-0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 45.6% over 263 decided matches-0.7%OpenOpen: 45.5% over 257 decided matches-0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 44.7% over 264 decided matches-1.6%OctagonOctagon: 42.0% over 224 decided matches-4.4%Fence and openFence and open: 38.9% over 72 decided matches-7.5%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Taka64.0%674444926271·7560100
Vanessa57.8%406164576955·597153
Kage53.3%74624863525562334150
Brad52.3%33386733256033677557
Pai51.5%58335045601750388069
Lion50.7%38505842416483534560
Jeffry50.0%736738100442950425344
Wolf49.5%40624050603050445242
Sarah49.3%50557145100800462950
Goh49.0%5480543933100100433338
Akira48.6%47466335464233357248
Jacky46.5%3848453750720503350
Shun46.5%3067384605629435657
Aoi39.3%626033673322··250
Lei Fei36.4%57304240304633174730
El Blaze34.9%4060245618440266729
Lau34.2%36283329474436293830
Dural33.3%·33·067···1000
Eileen27.6%502214452200502925
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -5.2 to +4.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.887
No wallsNo walls: 47.3% over 766 decided matches+0.9%WallsWalls: 46.8% over 1,458 decided matches+0.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Taka64.0%5974
Vanessa57.8%5959
Kage53.3%5453
Brad52.3%5253
Pai51.5%5056
Lion50.7%4752
Jeffry50.0%5640
Wolf49.5%5144
Sarah49.3%4967
Goh49.0%4845
Akira48.6%5046
Jacky46.5%4258
Shun46.5%4845
Aoi39.3%5320
Lei Fei36.4%3835
El Blaze34.9%4030
Lau34.2%3240
Dural33.3%2940
Eileen27.6%3420
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 50.8% over 927 decided matches+2.7%Single wallSingle wall: 50.6% over 1,000 decided matches+2.5%Full fenceFull fence: 50.1% over 842 decided matches+2.0%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.9% over 1,014 decided matches+0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.2% over 1,072 decided matches+0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 47.9% over 1,086 decided matches-0.3%OctagonOctagon: 47.5% over 934 decided matches-0.6%OpenOpen: 46.5% over 1,016 decided matches-1.7%Low fenceLow fence: 46.1% over 1,066 decided matches-2.0%Fence and openFence and open: 42.4% over 297 decided matches-5.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Taka62.8%675149856063·695996
Vanessa54.4%475662545650·536451
Kage52.3%63584856505556444750
Pai51.8%54505446523350456459
Brad51.5%44445441415638616453
Wolf50.4%43604148544550485444
Lion50.3%43515446465663544756
Goh49.8%52675346398260455042
Sarah49.5%57485752607140464154
Jeffry49.5%58584381443844455643
Jacky49.1%47514847496325523750
Akira48.8%49505542454536446049
Shun48.3%44564345204641505455
El Blaze43.9%49573853294829455837
Aoi42.8%524839544335··3821
Lau41.3%41354438494638404437
Lei Fei41.3%52384643364537384438
Dural35.6%·40·1850···6014
Eileen31.3%483126372550533825
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.4 to +3.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
WallsWalls: 48.9% over 5,875 decided matches+0.7%No wallsNo walls: 47.7% over 3,082 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Taka62.8%6068
Vanessa54.4%5652
Kage52.3%5352
Pai51.8%5252
Brad51.5%5152
Wolf50.4%5148
Lion50.3%4951
Goh49.8%5047
Sarah49.5%4960
Jeffry49.5%5342
Jacky49.1%4754
Akira48.8%5047
Shun48.3%4945
El Blaze43.9%4838
Aoi42.8%4835
Lau41.3%4044
Lei Fei41.3%4339
Dural35.6%3537
Eileen31.3%3822
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia192,229
North America12114
Europe1725
South America86
Not recorded1076