VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Jacky

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.3%
Standing#13 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate9.7%
Most picked#2 of 19
Matches counted68,820
Unique players494
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 51.8% — 2,305 wins, 2,148 losses51.8%PaiPai: 51.2% — 1,844 wins, 1,758 losses51.2%GohGoh: 51.0% — 2,218 wins, 2,132 losses51.0%LionLion: 50.9% — 2,021 wins, 1,950 losses50.9%ShunShun: 50.9% — 2,023 wins, 1,954 losses50.9%JeanJean: 50.5% — 1,896 wins, 1,862 losses50.5%VanessaVanessa: 50.4% — 1,524 wins, 1,498 losses50.4%AkiraAkira: 50.0% — 4,107 wins, 4,111 losses50.0%DuralDural: 49.9% — 368 wins, 370 losses49.9%Lei FeiLei Fei: 49.1% — 1,442 wins, 1,494 losses49.1%LauLau: 49.0% — 2,298 wins, 2,387 losses49.0%SarahSarah: 49.0% — 1,942 wins, 2,021 losses49.0%JeffryJeffry: 48.8% — 2,032 wins, 2,130 losses48.8%EileenEileen: 47.8% — 613 wins, 670 losses47.8%AoiAoi: 47.6% — 1,414 wins, 1,556 losses47.6%KageKage: 47.5% — 2,273 wins, 2,507 losses47.5%El BlazeEl Blaze: 46.2% — 1,298 wins, 1,509 losses46.2%BradBrad: 45.5% — 1,734 wins, 2,077 losses45.5%TakaTaka: 45.5% — 607 wins, 727 losses45.5%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf51.76%2,3052,1484,453
Pai51.19%1,8441,7583,602
Goh50.99%2,2182,1324,350
Lion50.89%2,0211,9503,971
Shun50.87%2,0231,9543,977
Jean50.45%1,8961,8623,758
Vanessa50.43%1,5241,4983,022
Akira49.98%4,1074,1118,218
Dural49.86%368370738
Lei Fei49.11%1,4421,4942,936
Lau49.05%2,2982,3874,685
Sarah49.00%1,9422,0213,963
Jeffry48.82%2,0322,1304,162
Eileen47.78%6136701,283
Aoi47.61%1,4141,5562,970
Kage47.55%2,2732,5074,780
El Blaze46.24%1,2981,5092,807
Brad45.50%1,7342,0773,811
Taka45.50%6077271,334

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 50.8% over 6,696 decided matches+1.5%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.2% over 6,740 decided matches+0.9%Low fenceLow fence: 50.2% over 6,766 decided matches+0.9%OctagonOctagon: 50.0% over 7,022 decided matches+0.7%Full fenceFull fence: 49.4% over 7,227 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.0% over 7,040 decided matches-0.3%RectangleRectangle: 48.6% over 6,903 decided matches-0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 48.6% over 3,326 decided matches-0.8%OpenOpen: 48.3% over 6,870 decided matches-1.0%Single wallSingle wall: 48.2% over 6,856 decided matches-1.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf51.8%49525353514849565251
Pai51.2%53505153524953534849
Goh51.0%50555154515247525046
Lion50.9%53525150584856535046
Shun50.9%53555251495049505250
Jean50.5%51505251535147525246
Vanessa50.4%50534957434853544947
Akira50.0%48505252525047504948
Dural49.9%62504852513939485252
Lei Fei49.1%52485253495245474745
Lau49.0%46494752544655494747
Sarah49.0%51445448494848465051
Jeffry48.8%45455349495145475152
Eileen47.8%46415547545235494650
Aoi47.6%48485148504944484148
Kage47.5%47475044464751514649
El Blaze46.2%49454245514147464649
Brad45.5%44485045474146444546
Taka45.5%52374747383941524650
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.8 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.2 to +1.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.273
WallsWalls: 49.7% over 41,628 decided matches+0.3%No wallsNo walls: 48.9% over 20,492 decided matches-0.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf51.8%5250
Pai51.2%5150
Goh51.0%5250
Lion50.9%5150
Shun50.9%5250
Jean50.5%5150
Vanessa50.4%5246
Akira50.0%5050
Dural49.9%5247
Lei Fei49.1%5049
Lau49.0%4949
Sarah49.0%4950
Jeffry48.8%4951
Eileen47.8%4852
Aoi47.6%4749
Kage47.5%4847
El Blaze46.2%4547
Brad45.5%4645
Taka45.5%4743
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 50.4% over 27,392 decided matches+0.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.3% over 26,706 decided matches+0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 50.1% over 27,697 decided matches+0.4%OctagonOctagon: 50.0% over 28,668 decided matches+0.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.7% over 27,608 decided matches-0.0%Full fenceFull fence: 49.6% over 29,607 decided matches-0.1%RectangleRectangle: 49.3% over 28,183 decided matches-0.3%OpenOpen: 49.1% over 28,019 decided matches-0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 49.0% over 13,614 decided matches-0.6%Single wallSingle wall: 49.0% over 27,971 decided matches-0.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun51.5%52535352515150525250
Wolf50.9%50505152515049535151
Pai50.5%51505051514951524950
Goh50.5%50535152515147515048
Lion50.4%51525150534952515048
Akira50.2%49515152515049504950
Vanessa50.0%49525052474951535048
Jean49.9%50495051525048505148
Lei Fei49.5%51485151505148494848
Dural49.5%55494949494445505249
Sarah49.5%50475250495049485051
Lau49.4%48494851524852504948
Jeffry49.2%48475250495046485051
Eileen49.2%49475349504946494851
Kage48.8%49495047494951514849
Aoi48.4%49495049494947484649
Taka48.0%49465049454344524950
El Blaze47.8%49474647494548484849
Brad47.6%47495147484446484847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.0 to +0.9); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.229
WallsWalls: 49.9% over 168,164 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 49.4% over 83,687 decided matches-0.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun51.5%5251
Wolf50.9%5150
Pai50.5%5050
Goh50.5%5150
Lion50.4%5150
Akira50.2%5050
Vanessa50.0%5148
Jean49.9%5050
Lei Fei49.5%5050
Dural49.5%5147
Sarah49.5%4950
Lau49.4%4950
Jeffry49.2%4950
Eileen49.2%4950
Kage48.8%4949
Aoi48.4%4849
Taka48.0%4946
El Blaze47.8%4848
Brad47.6%4847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia153,445
South America28,935
North America46,421
Europe71,083
Middle East2289
Oceania120
Not recorded15,719
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.0%
Standing#16 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate9.8%
Most picked#2 of 19
Matches counted59,524
Unique players457
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
WolfWolf: 51.9% — 2,130 wins, 1,977 losses51.9%PaiPai: 51.0% — 1,660 wins, 1,592 losses51.0%GohGoh: 50.7% — 2,060 wins, 2,000 losses50.7%JeanJean: 50.3% — 1,790 wins, 1,770 losses50.3%AkiraAkira: 50.3% — 3,588 wins, 3,550 losses50.3%ShunShun: 50.0% — 1,686 wins, 1,684 losses50.0%DuralDural: 49.6% — 342 wins, 347 losses49.6%SarahSarah: 49.2% — 1,721 wins, 1,775 losses49.2%LionLion: 49.2% — 1,583 wins, 1,634 losses49.2%LauLau: 49.1% — 1,777 wins, 1,843 losses49.1%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.7% — 1,222 wins, 1,287 losses48.7%VanessaVanessa: 48.6% — 1,097 wins, 1,161 losses48.6%JeffryJeffry: 48.4% — 1,906 wins, 2,036 losses48.4%AoiAoi: 47.4% — 1,290 wins, 1,430 losses47.4%KageKage: 47.2% — 1,811 wins, 2,025 losses47.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 46.6% — 1,084 wins, 1,243 losses46.6%EileenEileen: 45.7% — 426 wins, 507 losses45.7%TakaTaka: 45.2% — 524 wins, 636 losses45.2%BradBrad: 45.0% — 1,499 wins, 1,831 losses45.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Wolf51.86%2,1301,9774,107
Pai51.05%1,6601,5923,252
Goh50.74%2,0602,0004,060
Jean50.28%1,7901,7703,560
Akira50.27%3,5883,5507,138
Shun50.03%1,6861,6843,370
Dural49.64%342347689
Sarah49.23%1,7211,7753,496
Lion49.21%1,5831,6343,217
Lau49.09%1,7771,8433,620
Lei Fei48.70%1,2221,2872,509
Vanessa48.58%1,0971,1612,258
Jeffry48.35%1,9062,0363,942
Aoi47.43%1,2901,4302,720
Kage47.21%1,8112,0253,836
El Blaze46.58%1,0841,2432,327
Eileen45.66%426507933
Taka45.17%5246361,160
Brad45.02%1,4991,8313,330

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 50.9% over 5,780 decided matches+1.9%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.1% over 5,852 decided matches+1.0%Low fenceLow fence: 49.9% over 5,908 decided matches+0.8%OctagonOctagon: 49.7% over 6,017 decided matches+0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 49.5% over 6,254 decided matches+0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 48.8% over 6,084 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 48.6% over 5,944 decided matches-0.4%OpenOpen: 47.8% over 6,012 decided matches-1.3%Fence and openFence and open: 47.6% over 2,868 decided matches-1.4%Single wallSingle wall: 47.1% over 5,883 decided matches-1.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Wolf51.9%50525452524949555152
Pai51.0%53505052525053534949
Goh50.7%51565153525146504946
Jean50.3%51495250535346525146
Akira50.3%50515252524947514948
Shun50.0%52555351494745515248
Dural49.6%63504850513639485552
Sarah49.2%51455549474648475152
Lion49.2%51495049554452535044
Lau49.1%48514852554156504945
Lei Fei48.7%51485152495245474744
Vanessa48.6%48514956404654524945
Jeffry48.4%45455349475045475052
Aoi47.4%47475248505042474247
Kage47.2%48475044474650504648
El Blaze46.6%48444444554147464550
Eileen45.7%46385051494538454448
Taka45.2%51374846394134504448
Brad45.0%44465046473944434645
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.3 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.3 to +2.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.058
WallsWalls: 49.6% over 35,931 decided matches+0.6%No wallsNo walls: 48.3% over 17,803 decided matches-0.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Wolf51.9%5251
Pai51.0%5150
Goh50.7%5249
Jean50.3%5150
Akira50.3%5150
Shun50.0%5248
Dural49.6%5247
Sarah49.2%4949
Lion49.2%5048
Lau49.1%5047
Lei Fei48.7%4948
Vanessa48.6%5143
Jeffry48.4%4850
Aoi47.4%4749
Kage47.2%4847
El Blaze46.6%4548
Eileen45.7%4647
Taka45.2%4643
Brad45.0%4644
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 50.4% over 23,629 decided matches+0.9%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.1% over 23,141 decided matches+0.7%Low fenceLow fence: 49.9% over 24,188 decided matches+0.5%OctagonOctagon: 49.8% over 24,589 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 49.6% over 25,604 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 23,775 decided matches+0.0%RectangleRectangle: 49.3% over 24,257 decided matches-0.2%OpenOpen: 48.7% over 24,517 decided matches-0.8%Fence and openFence and open: 48.5% over 11,730 decided matches-0.9%Single wallSingle wall: 48.4% over 23,936 decided matches-1.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun51.0%52535352505047525348
Wolf50.9%50505151515049525151
Pai50.5%52505051514951524950
Akira50.4%50525152515050504949
Goh50.4%50545152515047504948
Jean49.9%50495050525147505148
Sarah49.6%50475250484949495050
Lau49.4%49504851524653505047
Lion49.4%51515050524750504947
Dural49.3%57494949494345505349
Lei Fei49.3%51485150505149484847
Vanessa49.2%48504952454852525047
Jeffry48.9%48475150485046475051
Kage48.4%49484947494849504848
Aoi48.3%49495049484946484649
Eileen48.0%49465150494645474749
Taka47.8%48465049464441514849
El Blaze47.8%49464746514548484849
Brad47.3%47485047484346474947
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.8 pts behind walls (95% interval +0.3 to +1.2); holds up against the 20 characters tested, q=0.026
WallsWalls: 49.8% over 144,995 decided matches+0.3%No wallsNo walls: 49.0% over 72,641 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun51.0%5250
Wolf50.9%5150
Pai50.5%5150
Akira50.4%5150
Goh50.4%5150
Jean49.9%5050
Sarah49.6%5049
Lau49.4%5048
Lion49.4%5048
Dural49.3%5147
Lei Fei49.3%4950
Vanessa49.2%5047
Jeffry48.9%4950
Kage48.4%4848
Aoi48.3%4849
Eileen48.0%4848
Taka47.8%4946
El Blaze47.8%4748
Brad47.3%4846
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia144,520
South America28,935
North America46,055
Europe61,060
Middle East2289
Oceania120
Not recorded25,015
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.2%
Standing#6 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate8.9%
Most picked#3 of 19
Matches counted9,296
Unique players76
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
LionLion: 58.1% — 438 wins, 316 losses58.1%JeffryJeffry: 57.3% — 126 wins, 94 losses57.3%VanessaVanessa: 55.9% — 427 wins, 337 losses55.9%ShunShun: 55.5% — 337 wins, 270 losses55.5%GohGoh: 54.5% — 158 wins, 132 losses54.5%JeanJean: 53.5% — 106 wins, 92 losses53.5%EileenEileen: 53.4% — 187 wins, 163 losses53.4%DuralDural: 53.1% — 26 wins, 23 losses53.1%PaiPai: 52.6% — 184 wins, 166 losses52.6%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.5% — 220 wins, 207 losses51.5%WolfWolf: 50.6% — 175 wins, 171 losses50.6%AoiAoi: 49.6% — 124 wins, 126 losses49.6%KageKage: 48.9% — 462 wins, 482 losses48.9%LauLau: 48.9% — 521 wins, 544 losses48.9%BradBrad: 48.9% — 235 wins, 246 losses48.9%AkiraAkira: 48.1% — 519 wins, 561 losses48.1%TakaTaka: 47.7% — 83 wins, 91 losses47.7%SarahSarah: 47.3% — 221 wins, 246 losses47.3%El BlazeEl Blaze: 44.6% — 214 wins, 266 losses44.6%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Lion58.09%438316754
Jeffry57.27%12694220
Vanessa55.89%427337764
Shun55.52%337270607
Goh54.48%158132290
Jean53.54%10692198
Eileen53.43%187163350
Dural53.06%262349
Pai52.57%184166350
Lei Fei51.52%220207427
Wolf50.58%175171346
Aoi49.60%124126250
Kage48.94%462482944
Lau48.92%5215441,065
Brad48.86%235246481
Akira48.06%5195611,080
Taka47.70%8391174
Sarah47.32%221246467
El Blaze44.58%214266480

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 54.9% over 973 decided matches+3.6%Fence and openFence and open: 54.6% over 458 decided matches+3.4%Low fenceLow fence: 52.5% over 858 decided matches+1.2%OpenOpen: 52.2% over 858 decided matches+1.0%OctagonOctagon: 52.1% over 1,005 decided matches+0.9%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.5% over 888 decided matches+0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.2% over 916 decided matches-1.0%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.2% over 956 decided matches-1.0%RectangleRectangle: 48.6% over 959 decided matches-2.6%Full fenceFull fence: 48.4% over 973 decided matches-2.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lion58.1%58635652716272545353
Jeffry57.3%45485957686736656153
Vanessa55.9%56635259585253635054
Shun55.5%57594950515979475065
Goh54.5%42465358466567676245
Jean53.5%625255635028100506750
Eileen53.4%46506838646632595554
Dural53.1%50·671005055·503350
Pai52.6%52515767564257544348
Lei Fei51.5%61515456505248514551
Wolf50.6%39524676504644575346
Aoi49.6%50484248554683523670
Kage48.9%42455145455360544650
Lau48.9%41454652536252483855
Brad48.9%43555340505258503851
Akira48.1%37455048535948445450
Taka47.7%60364262292956675662
Sarah47.3%52384542576250384650
El Blaze44.6%53492948304545504746
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-3.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -5.6 to -0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.157
No wallsNo walls: 53.2% over 2,689 decided matches+2.0%WallsWalls: 50.2% over 5,697 decided matches-1.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lion58.1%5661
Jeffry57.3%5762
Vanessa55.9%5755
Shun55.5%5258
Goh54.5%5552
Jean53.5%5842
Eileen53.4%5361
Dural53.1%5053
Pai52.6%5350
Lei Fei51.5%5351
Wolf50.6%5347
Aoi49.6%4654
Kage48.9%4749
Lau48.9%4557
Brad48.9%4851
Akira48.1%4654
Taka47.7%5239
Sarah47.3%4356
El Blaze44.6%4640
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 52.3% over 1,884 decided matches+1.4%Single wallSingle wall: 52.3% over 4,035 decided matches+1.4%OpenOpen: 52.0% over 3,502 decided matches+1.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.2% over 3,509 decided matches+0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.2% over 3,565 decided matches+0.2%OctagonOctagon: 51.0% over 4,079 decided matches+0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.7% over 3,833 decided matches-0.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.5% over 3,763 decided matches-0.4%RectangleRectangle: 49.7% over 3,926 decided matches-1.2%Full fenceFull fence: 49.5% over 4,003 decided matches-1.4%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Lion54.7%55575253605861535352
Shun54.4%55555349525768495062
Jeffry54.2%48515653636046555353
Vanessa52.4%53565052545149555151
Eileen52.4%50495844545746575355
Goh52.0%45475255485758575650
Dural51.7%44·67675051·544356
Lei Fei51.0%54515454495047544951
Wolf50.9%45504964534744565151
Jean50.9%53495253513775486350
Kage50.5%48505148495257534849
Pai50.3%47495160534656524649
Brad50.0%43545448495151514454
Lau49.5%47484851535550484452
Taka49.4%57444756424051545557
Aoi49.3%50484751524668514156
Akira49.0%43495051485449465151
Sarah49.0%51454747525451434952
El Blaze47.9%52524150404748504947
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.8 to -0.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.296
No wallsNo walls: 51.9% over 11,046 decided matches+0.9%WallsWalls: 50.4% over 23,169 decided matches-0.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Lion54.7%5456
Shun54.4%5256
Jeffry54.2%5358
Vanessa52.4%5352
Eileen52.4%5256
Goh52.0%5251
Dural51.7%5051
Lei Fei51.0%5350
Wolf50.9%5250
Jean50.9%5346
Kage50.5%5050
Pai50.3%5050
Brad50.0%5051
Lau49.5%4853
Taka49.4%5245
Aoi49.3%4850
Akira49.0%4851
Sarah49.0%4753
El Blaze47.9%4945
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia38,925
North America3366
Europe1823
South America150
Not recorded1704