VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

El Blaze

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.7%
Standing#3 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate3.8%
Most picked#17 of 19
Matches counted28,590
Unique players248
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeanJean: 56.8% — 755 wins, 574 losses56.8%VanessaVanessa: 54.8% — 551 wins, 455 losses54.8%GohGoh: 54.0% — 924 wins, 788 losses54.0%WolfWolf: 53.8% — 898 wins, 771 losses53.8%JackyJacky: 53.8% — 1,509 wins, 1,298 losses53.8%AkiraAkira: 52.7% — 1,546 wins, 1,387 losses52.7%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.8% — 667 wins, 622 losses51.8%SarahSarah: 51.6% — 867 wins, 813 losses51.6%EileenEileen: 51.4% — 274 wins, 259 losses51.4%AoiAoi: 51.1% — 579 wins, 553 losses51.1%BradBrad: 51.1% — 750 wins, 718 losses51.1%LauLau: 50.4% — 1,112 wins, 1,095 losses50.4%ShunShun: 50.2% — 786 wins, 779 losses50.2%DuralDural: 50.2% — 155 wins, 154 losses50.2%LionLion: 50.1% — 761 wins, 759 losses50.1%JeffryJeffry: 49.5% — 738 wins, 752 losses49.5%PaiPai: 48.9% — 710 wins, 742 losses48.9%KageKage: 48.4% — 963 wins, 1,026 losses48.4%TakaTaka: 47.2% — 236 wins, 264 losses47.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jean56.81%7555741,329
Vanessa54.77%5514551,006
Goh53.97%9247881,712
Wolf53.80%8987711,669
Jacky53.76%1,5091,2982,807
Akira52.71%1,5461,3872,933
Lei Fei51.75%6676221,289
Sarah51.61%8678131,680
Eileen51.41%274259533
Aoi51.15%5795531,132
Brad51.09%7507181,468
Lau50.39%1,1121,0952,207
Shun50.22%7867791,565
Dural50.16%155154309
Lion50.07%7617591,520
Jeffry49.53%7387521,490
Pai48.90%7107421,452
Kage48.42%9631,0261,989
Taka47.20%236264500

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 53.2% over 2,829 decided matches+1.5%RectangleRectangle: 52.9% over 2,803 decided matches+1.2%Fence and openFence and open: 52.4% over 1,432 decided matches+0.7%OpenOpen: 52.4% over 2,798 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 52.0% over 2,839 decided matches+0.3%OctagonOctagon: 51.6% over 2,860 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.6% over 2,806 decided matches-0.1%Full fenceFull fence: 51.5% over 3,029 decided matches-0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.8% over 2,865 decided matches-0.9%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.5% over 2,871 decided matches-1.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean56.8%60575253615470595754
Vanessa54.8%52595355575364535656
Goh54.0%54584955495755575256
Wolf53.8%55585657485260525256
Jacky53.8%51555855495953545451
Akira52.7%55565151525750514954
Lei Fei51.8%56495051535157545653
Sarah51.6%47535751535454494852
Eileen51.4%44425562555341476139
Aoi51.1%60413840565257535358
Brad51.1%51495045535344516248
Lau50.4%50484547505253555450
Shun50.2%48554750545749444849
Dural50.2%53395356504057395658
Lion50.1%52455354494452525546
Jeffry49.5%51474753525046495054
Pai48.9%46524944504949505251
Kage48.4%45514549465246475153
Taka47.2%49514126365330515258
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.3 to +0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.375
No wallsNo walls: 52.4% over 8,433 decided matches+0.7%WallsWalls: 51.5% over 17,267 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean56.8%5657
Vanessa54.8%5456
Goh54.0%5454
Wolf53.8%5552
Jacky53.8%5553
Akira52.7%5254
Lei Fei51.8%5252
Sarah51.6%5153
Eileen51.4%5250
Aoi51.1%4856
Brad51.1%5152
Lau50.4%5051
Shun50.2%4953
Dural50.2%5149
Lion50.1%5246
Jeffry49.5%5052
Pai48.9%4950
Kage48.4%4850
Taka47.2%4551
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.7% over 5,824 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 51.6% over 11,408 decided matches+0.5%Single wallSingle wall: 51.5% over 11,638 decided matches+0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.5% over 11,014 decided matches+0.4%RectangleRectangle: 51.4% over 11,447 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 51.1% over 12,326 decided matches+0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 51.0% over 11,488 decided matches-0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.8% over 11,242 decided matches-0.3%OctagonOctagon: 50.8% over 11,650 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.5% over 11,653 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean53.5%55535052575160545354
Vanessa52.6%51565351545358525154
Wolf52.4%53555256495157515154
Jacky52.2%51535453515552525251
Akira52.0%54545151515451525052
Goh51.8%51535051495354535255
Eileen51.4%51465357525046495548
Shun51.0%50535150535351485050
Lei Fei50.9%54485150535151525351
Sarah50.8%49535450525252504850
Brad50.8%51504949515247505748
Aoi50.7%55464446545055525153
Lau50.3%50504749505252525250
Jeffry50.1%51494951525047495152
Dural50.1%52455052534554475152
Lion49.9%51485153474750515249
Kage49.5%48524949485050485052
Pai49.4%49524946504950495050
Taka48.6%47494640465144495255
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +0.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.418
No wallsNo walls: 51.4% over 34,534 decided matches+0.3%WallsWalls: 51.0% over 69,332 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean53.5%5354
Vanessa52.6%5254
Wolf52.4%5352
Jacky52.2%5252
Akira52.0%5252
Goh51.8%5252
Eileen51.4%5250
Shun51.0%5052
Lei Fei50.9%5152
Sarah50.8%5151
Brad50.8%5151
Aoi50.7%4952
Lau50.3%5051
Jeffry50.1%5052
Dural50.1%5050
Lion49.9%5148
Kage49.5%4950
Pai49.4%4950
Taka48.6%4752
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1521,533
South America182,025
North America64,291
Europe13572
Middle East110
Oceania100
Not recorded111,271
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Win rate51.3%
Standing#5 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate3.6%
Most picked#16 of 19
Matches counted23,146
Unique players231
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeanJean: 56.1% — 686 wins, 537 losses56.1%GohGoh: 53.5% — 801 wins, 697 losses53.5%JackyJacky: 53.4% — 1,243 wins, 1,084 losses53.4%WolfWolf: 53.0% — 782 wins, 693 losses53.0%Lei FeiLei Fei: 52.8% — 520 wins, 465 losses52.8%AkiraAkira: 52.7% — 1,301 wins, 1,169 losses52.7%AoiAoi: 52.3% — 519 wins, 474 losses52.3%VanessaVanessa: 51.9% — 400 wins, 371 losses51.9%LauLau: 50.6% — 721 wins, 703 losses50.6%BradBrad: 50.3% — 602 wins, 594 losses50.3%DuralDural: 50.2% — 136 wins, 135 losses50.2%LionLion: 50.0% — 529 wins, 530 losses50.0%TakaTaka: 49.9% — 204 wins, 205 losses49.9%ShunShun: 49.8% — 590 wins, 595 losses49.8%SarahSarah: 49.7% — 655 wins, 662 losses49.7%PaiPai: 49.2% — 613 wins, 634 losses49.2%JeffryJeffry: 49.0% — 666 wins, 693 losses49.0%EileenEileen: 47.8% — 181 wins, 198 losses47.8%KageKage: 46.9% — 730 wins, 828 losses46.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jean56.09%6865371,223
Goh53.47%8016971,498
Jacky53.42%1,2431,0842,327
Wolf53.02%7826931,475
Lei Fei52.79%520465985
Akira52.67%1,3011,1692,470
Aoi52.27%519474993
Vanessa51.88%400371771
Lau50.63%7217031,424
Brad50.33%6025941,196
Dural50.18%136135271
Lion49.95%5295301,059
Taka49.88%204205409
Shun49.79%5905951,185
Sarah49.73%6556621,317
Pai49.16%6136341,247
Jeffry49.01%6666931,359
Eileen47.76%181198379
Kage46.85%7308281,558

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Single wallSingle wall: 53.8% over 2,307 decided matches+2.4%RectangleRectangle: 52.5% over 2,267 decided matches+1.1%OctagonOctagon: 51.8% over 2,320 decided matches+0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.7% over 2,325 decided matches+0.4%Fence and openFence and open: 51.7% over 1,137 decided matches+0.4%OpenOpen: 51.5% over 2,268 decided matches+0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 51.4% over 2,444 decided matches+0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.9% over 2,332 decided matches-0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 50.2% over 2,254 decided matches-1.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.7% over 2,322 decided matches-1.6%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean56.1%60594953595467565853
Goh53.5%51575055485654585257
Jacky53.4%52565656455953545550
Wolf53.0%54575357475360515055
Lei Fei52.8%58505055535451585652
Akira52.7%54575250535749534852
Aoi52.3%60424243585554515459
Vanessa51.9%49584451565271505348
Lau50.6%49454747496053575349
Brad50.3%50494747525443496049
Dural50.2%48405053523957406060
Lion50.0%51465853454848545442
Taka49.9%58524625325332595958
Shun49.8%51524250545849444848
Sarah49.7%49515950485050494745
Pai49.2%43494746505052525352
Jeffry49.0%50494753514843465055
Eileen47.8%43365660515033465638
Kage46.9%43494447445049455049
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.1 to +1.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.799
No wallsNo walls: 51.8% over 6,829 decided matches+0.5%WallsWalls: 51.3% over 14,010 decided matches+0.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean56.1%5656
Goh53.5%5453
Jacky53.4%5552
Wolf53.0%5452
Lei Fei52.8%5553
Akira52.7%5254
Aoi52.3%4957
Vanessa51.9%5153
Lau50.6%5052
Brad50.3%5052
Dural50.2%5049
Lion50.0%5345
Taka49.9%5051
Shun49.8%4853
Sarah49.7%5148
Pai49.2%4951
Jeffry49.0%4951
Eileen47.8%4947
Kage46.9%4748
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.7% over 8,971 decided matches+0.7%Single wallSingle wall: 51.6% over 9,491 decided matches+0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 51.5% over 4,620 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 51.3% over 9,245 decided matches+0.3%RectangleRectangle: 51.2% over 9,254 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 51.1% over 9,966 decided matches+0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.9% over 9,129 decided matches-0.1%OctagonOctagon: 50.8% over 9,446 decided matches-0.1%Low fenceLow fence: 50.3% over 9,239 decided matches-0.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.0% over 9,434 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean53.2%55544952565159535353
Jacky52.2%51545354495552525251
Akira51.9%53555150505451525051
Wolf51.9%52545156495156515054
Aoi51.7%56474649555256525253
Goh51.6%50525151495254545255
Lei Fei51.4%55495052535249535352
Vanessa51.2%50554849545260514951
Shun51.2%52534951525451485051
Brad50.5%50524850505246495848
Taka50.5%52514841445244545555
Lau50.2%49484849495451525250
Eileen49.9%49445357514942505248
Jeffry49.9%51504851524947485053
Dural49.9%49454951544454485453
Sarah49.6%50525450494950494846
Lion49.6%51485353454848515147
Pai49.3%48514747504952495151
Kage48.5%47514848474951474951
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.9 to +0.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.939
No wallsNo walls: 51.1% over 27,975 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 50.9% over 56,200 decided matches+0.0%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean53.2%5353
Jacky52.2%5352
Akira51.9%5252
Wolf51.9%5251
Aoi51.7%5053
Goh51.6%5252
Lei Fei51.4%5252
Vanessa51.2%5052
Shun51.2%5152
Brad50.5%5150
Taka50.5%5052
Lau50.2%5051
Eileen49.9%5149
Jeffry49.9%5051
Dural49.9%4950
Sarah49.6%5048
Lion49.6%5147
Pai49.3%4950
Kage48.5%4849
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1616,801
South America182,025
North America73,973
Europe18172
Middle East110
Oceania100
Not recorded131,049
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate53.3%
Standing#4 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate5.0%
Most picked#9 of 19
Matches counted5,444
Unique players40
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeanJean: 65.1% — 69 wins, 37 losses65.1%VanessaVanessa: 64.3% — 151 wins, 84 losses64.3%EileenEileen: 60.4% — 93 wins, 61 losses60.4%WolfWolf: 59.8% — 116 wins, 78 losses59.8%SarahSarah: 58.4% — 212 wins, 151 losses58.4%GohGoh: 57.5% — 123 wins, 91 losses57.5%JackyJacky: 55.4% — 266 wins, 214 losses55.4%JeffryJeffry: 55.0% — 72 wins, 59 losses55.0%BradBrad: 54.4% — 148 wins, 124 losses54.4%KageKage: 54.1% — 233 wins, 198 losses54.1%AkiraAkira: 52.9% — 245 wins, 218 losses52.9%ShunShun: 51.6% — 196 wins, 184 losses51.6%LionLion: 50.3% — 232 wins, 229 losses50.3%DuralDural: 50.0% — 19 wins, 19 losses50.0%LauLau: 49.9% — 391 wins, 392 losses49.9%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.4% — 147 wins, 157 losses48.4%PaiPai: 47.3% — 97 wins, 108 losses47.3%AoiAoi: 43.2% — 60 wins, 79 losses43.2%TakaTaka: 35.2% — 32 wins, 59 losses35.2%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jean65.09%6937106
Vanessa64.26%15184235
Eileen60.39%9361154
Wolf59.79%11678194
Sarah58.40%212151363
Goh57.48%12391214
Jacky55.42%266214480
Jeffry54.96%7259131
Brad54.41%148124272
Kage54.06%233198431
Akira52.92%245218463
Shun51.58%196184380
Lion50.33%232229461
Dural50.00%191938
Lau49.94%391392783
Lei Fei48.36%147157304
Pai47.32%97108205
Aoi43.17%6079139
Taka35.16%325991

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 57.2% over 552 decided matches+3.9%OpenOpen: 56.0% over 530 decided matches+2.7%Fence and openFence and open: 54.9% over 295 decided matches+1.6%RectangleRectangle: 54.9% over 536 decided matches+1.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 53.5% over 549 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 53.1% over 514 decided matches-0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 52.0% over 585 decided matches-1.3%Single wallSingle wall: 51.0% over 522 decided matches-2.4%OctagonOctagon: 50.7% over 540 decided matches-2.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.1% over 533 decided matches-3.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jean65.1%604076448256100743371
Vanessa64.3%64607768595736646779
Eileen60.4%50575068677156477143
Wolf59.8%60647562535060585858
Sarah58.4%37595057677564485467
Goh57.5%66614156647267525051
Jacky55.4%47517152705555505354
Jeffry55.0%59275050597880755738
Brad54.4%52506238625050676944
Kage54.1%50575252515839525869
Akira52.9%60474558505355425265
Shun51.6%40636146575550444850
Lion50.3%54424354573662485759
Dural50.0%80331001003350·333350
Lau49.9%52564245533954515652
Lei Fei48.4%504450385046100445656
Pai47.3%62615533504440403038
Aoi43.2%58382110504167802540
Taka35.2%1550173050500292257
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-2.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -5.7 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.569
No wallsNo walls: 54.8% over 1,604 decided matches+1.5%WallsWalls: 52.4% over 3,257 decided matches-0.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jean65.1%6070
Vanessa64.3%6863
Eileen60.4%5958
Wolf59.8%6354
Sarah58.4%5268
Goh57.5%5659
Jacky55.4%5460
Jeffry55.0%5459
Brad54.4%5751
Kage54.1%5358
Akira52.9%5155
Shun51.6%5054
Lion50.3%5051
Dural50.0%5747
Lau49.9%5148
Lei Fei48.4%4650
Pai47.3%5043
Aoi43.2%3945
Taka35.2%2754
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Low fenceLow fence: 54.1% over 2,249 decided matches+2.3%OpenOpen: 53.2% over 2,163 decided matches+1.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 52.5% over 2,219 decided matches+0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 52.4% over 1,204 decided matches+0.6%RectangleRectangle: 52.0% over 2,193 decided matches+0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 51.5% over 2,360 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 51.0% over 2,147 decided matches-0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.6% over 2,043 decided matches-1.2%OctagonOctagon: 50.5% over 2,204 decided matches-1.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.2% over 2,113 decided matches-1.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Vanessa57.2%58576656555550565764
Jean56.1%51436247715271554263
Wolf55.9%55576357504959585658
Eileen55.1%58535458555952486147
Sarah55.1%44565252596658555058
Goh53.0%60544548545854495153
Kage52.9%52525352535548515560
Akira52.6%56484956525053485357
Jeffry52.2%52395152556654585645
Jacky52.1%48485950605352505153
Brad51.8%57465446585248555546
Dural51.3%764560755053·474150
Lion50.5%51474753514555515456
Lau50.5%51554650524752505250
Shun50.3%44545746555250484946
Pai49.6%58555543524645474044
Lei Fei49.1%52445343534867495150
Aoi43.8%55443522464351572343
Taka39.7%27413835524540353454
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-1.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.2 to +0.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.383
No wallsNo walls: 52.8% over 6,559 decided matches+1.0%WallsWalls: 51.2% over 13,132 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Vanessa57.2%5957
Jean56.1%5262
Wolf55.9%5753
Eileen55.1%5553
Sarah55.1%5260
Goh53.0%5255
Kage52.9%5255
Akira52.6%5253
Jeffry52.2%5256
Jacky52.1%5155
Brad51.8%5252
Dural51.3%5551
Lion50.5%5151
Lau50.5%5150
Shun50.3%5051
Pai49.6%5147
Lei Fei49.1%4850
Aoi43.8%4245
Taka39.7%3451
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia104,732
North America4318
Europe1400
South America130
Not recorded7222