VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Brad

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.4%
Standing#8 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate5.2%
Most picked#9 of 19
Matches counted38,439
Unique players278
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JackyJacky: 54.5% — 2,077 wins, 1,734 losses54.5%ShunShun: 53.1% — 981 wins, 868 losses53.1%WolfWolf: 52.7% — 1,213 wins, 1,087 losses52.7%VanessaVanessa: 52.2% — 814 wins, 746 losses52.2%JeffryJeffry: 51.7% — 1,214 wins, 1,134 losses51.7%JeanJean: 51.4% — 1,090 wins, 1,032 losses51.4%GohGoh: 50.9% — 1,117 wins, 1,076 losses50.9%PaiPai: 50.7% — 903 wins, 877 losses50.7%SarahSarah: 50.6% — 1,052 wins, 1,026 losses50.6%DuralDural: 50.3% — 220 wins, 217 losses50.3%LionLion: 50.2% — 1,121 wins, 1,114 losses50.2%AkiraAkira: 49.5% — 2,017 wins, 2,055 losses49.5%EileenEileen: 49.1% — 317 wins, 329 losses49.1%El BlazeEl Blaze: 48.9% — 718 wins, 750 losses48.9%LauLau: 48.5% — 1,290 wins, 1,372 losses48.5%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.1% — 704 wins, 758 losses48.1%KageKage: 48.0% — 1,388 wins, 1,502 losses48.0%AoiAoi: 46.0% — 812 wins, 954 losses46.0%TakaTaka: 43.3% — 329 wins, 431 losses43.3%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jacky54.50%2,0771,7343,811
Shun53.06%9818681,849
Wolf52.74%1,2131,0872,300
Vanessa52.18%8147461,560
Jeffry51.70%1,2141,1342,348
Jean51.37%1,0901,0322,122
Goh50.93%1,1171,0762,193
Pai50.73%9038771,780
Sarah50.63%1,0521,0262,078
Dural50.34%220217437
Lion50.16%1,1211,1142,235
Akira49.53%2,0172,0554,072
Eileen49.07%317329646
El Blaze48.91%7187501,468
Lau48.46%1,2901,3722,662
Lei Fei48.15%7047581,462
Kage48.03%1,3881,5022,890
Aoi45.98%8129541,766
Taka43.29%329431760

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 51.6% over 3,891 decided matches+1.2%Single wallSingle wall: 51.4% over 3,783 decided matches+0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 51.2% over 1,904 decided matches+0.8%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.0% over 3,946 decided matches+0.6%OpenOpen: 50.4% over 3,966 decided matches+0.0%Full fenceFull fence: 50.2% over 3,835 decided matches-0.2%RectangleRectangle: 49.8% over 3,854 decided matches-0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 49.8% over 3,781 decided matches-0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 3,741 decided matches-0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.1% over 3,730 decided matches-1.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jacky54.5%56525055535954565554
Shun53.1%53505052515553645252
Wolf52.7%49495556545549605547
Vanessa52.2%57494152524857505460
Jeffry51.7%53475060525254544551
Jean51.4%52545354514850505348
Goh50.9%57535843515447475050
Pai50.7%51524151505456515152
Sarah50.6%48524949514955575048
Dural50.3%40524346565771534755
Lion50.2%47505344515548574553
Akira49.5%48484656495151494750
Eileen49.1%51526147484748414650
El Blaze48.9%49515055474756493852
Lau48.5%49484552494848454950
Lei Fei48.1%40515144465654465345
Kage48.0%48474745484847484950
Aoi46.0%46434850454144494943
Taka43.3%50434438264433435451
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.5 to +1.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.843
No wallsNo walls: 50.5% over 11,530 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 50.3% over 22,997 decided matches-0.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jacky54.5%5455
Shun53.1%5353
Wolf52.7%5452
Vanessa52.2%5153
Jeffry51.7%5152
Jean51.4%5349
Goh50.9%5151
Pai50.7%5052
Sarah50.6%5149
Dural50.3%4756
Lion50.2%4953
Akira49.5%4950
Eileen49.1%5048
El Blaze48.9%4948
Lau48.5%4849
Lei Fei48.1%4749
Kage48.0%4749
Aoi46.0%4743
Taka43.3%4641
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.0% over 7,815 decided matches+0.8%OctagonOctagon: 50.9% over 15,991 decided matches+0.7%Single wallSingle wall: 50.7% over 15,500 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 50.5% over 16,130 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 50.4% over 15,760 decided matches+0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.3% over 15,424 decided matches+0.1%RectangleRectangle: 49.8% over 15,706 decided matches-0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 49.7% over 15,447 decided matches-0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.6% over 15,219 decided matches-0.6%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 14,586 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun52.4%53505251515354585252
Jacky52.4%53514953525654525253
Wolf51.7%50495253525450565250
Vanessa51.4%54504550514955515355
Jeffry50.9%52475154525051524752
Goh50.7%54525546505151495150
Jean50.6%52515251525050505148
Lion50.1%49505248515348534751
Pai50.1%49514551505253514951
Sarah50.0%49504949505052545049
Dural49.8%44484647545663524650
Akira49.7%50494852495051494851
El Blaze49.2%49505151494853504352
Lau49.0%50484750494951475051
Lei Fei48.9%45515046475252495147
Kage48.8%49484948484947484950
Eileen48.7%50495448494848444751
Aoi48.3%48464951474647515047
Taka46.6%51464647364741475151
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.8 to +0.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.582
No wallsNo walls: 50.3% over 47,077 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 50.1% over 92,686 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun52.4%5352
Jacky52.4%5253
Wolf51.7%5252
Vanessa51.4%5152
Jeffry50.9%5151
Goh50.7%5150
Jean50.6%5150
Lion50.1%5051
Pai50.1%4951
Sarah50.0%5049
Dural49.8%4753
Akira49.7%4950
El Blaze49.2%4949
Lau49.0%4949
Lei Fei48.9%4949
Kage48.8%4949
Eileen48.7%4849
Aoi48.3%4947
Taka46.6%4845
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1226,314
South America144,373
North America26,944
Europe8798
Middle East82
Oceania416
Not recorded62,166
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.6%
Standing#8 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate5.1%
Most picked#10 of 19
Matches counted32,661
Unique players253
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JackyJacky: 55.0% — 1,831 wins, 1,499 losses55.0%WolfWolf: 52.8% — 1,055 wins, 943 losses52.8%ShunShun: 52.3% — 804 wins, 734 losses52.3%JeffryJeffry: 52.0% — 1,079 wins, 995 losses52.0%VanessaVanessa: 51.8% — 619 wins, 577 losses51.8%JeanJean: 51.6% — 1,039 wins, 976 losses51.6%PaiPai: 51.3% — 827 wins, 784 losses51.3%SarahSarah: 50.4% — 950 wins, 934 losses50.4%GohGoh: 50.4% — 1,011 wins, 996 losses50.4%AkiraAkira: 50.2% — 1,723 wins, 1,707 losses50.2%DuralDural: 50.0% — 209 wins, 209 losses50.0%LionLion: 49.8% — 847 wins, 853 losses49.8%LauLau: 49.7% — 1,054 wins, 1,067 losses49.7%El BlazeEl Blaze: 49.7% — 594 wins, 602 losses49.7%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.8% — 566 wins, 594 losses48.8%KageKage: 47.8% — 1,121 wins, 1,225 losses47.8%EileenEileen: 47.7% — 216 wins, 237 losses47.7%TakaTaka: 45.4% — 291 wins, 350 losses45.4%AoiAoi: 44.8% — 691 wins, 852 losses44.8%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jacky54.98%1,8311,4993,330
Wolf52.80%1,0559431,998
Shun52.28%8047341,538
Jeffry52.03%1,0799952,074
Vanessa51.76%6195771,196
Jean51.56%1,0399762,015
Pai51.33%8277841,611
Sarah50.42%9509341,884
Goh50.37%1,0119962,007
Akira50.23%1,7231,7073,430
Dural50.00%209209418
Lion49.82%8478531,700
Lau49.69%1,0541,0672,121
El Blaze49.67%5946021,196
Lei Fei48.79%5665941,160
Kage47.78%1,1211,2252,346
Eileen47.68%216237453
Taka45.40%291350641
Aoi44.78%6918521,543

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 52.1% over 3,326 decided matches+1.5%Single wallSingle wall: 51.5% over 3,188 decided matches+0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 51.3% over 1,607 decided matches+0.7%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.2% over 3,362 decided matches+0.7%RectangleRectangle: 50.3% over 3,289 decided matches-0.3%OpenOpen: 50.2% over 3,368 decided matches-0.4%Full fenceFull fence: 50.1% over 3,291 decided matches-0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.8% over 3,158 decided matches-0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.6% over 3,144 decided matches-1.0%Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 3,233 decided matches-1.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jacky55.0%56545054536156575455
Wolf52.8%48505455545749595646
Shun52.3%51494852515453625152
Jeffry52.0%52475361545255514650
Vanessa51.8%53494151544852505658
Jean51.6%51545453504950515448
Pai51.3%51554152495255525451
Sarah50.4%49525048504857574946
Goh50.4%58515643515343475050
Akira50.2%48484859485251504752
Dural50.0%38523844545771564756
Lion49.8%47475245535345604652
Lau49.7%50504653474850494855
El Blaze49.7%50515353484657514051
Lei Fei48.8%42505844475855445141
Kage47.8%47464743454949495050
Eileen47.7%57535649425250334049
Taka45.4%50454741314435455751
Aoi44.8%44424748453845494841
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.3 to +1.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.900
WallsWalls: 50.5% over 19,570 decided matches-0.1%No wallsNo walls: 50.5% over 9,789 decided matches-0.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jacky55.0%5456
Wolf52.8%5452
Shun52.3%5253
Jeffry52.0%5152
Vanessa51.8%5054
Jean51.6%5349
Pai51.3%5151
Sarah50.4%5148
Goh50.4%5151
Akira50.2%5051
Dural50.0%4656
Lion49.8%4953
Lau49.7%5049
El Blaze49.7%5048
Lei Fei48.8%4849
Kage47.8%4748
Eileen47.7%4847
Taka45.4%4843
Aoi44.8%4641
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 51.2% over 13,656 decided matches+0.8%Single wallSingle wall: 50.9% over 13,067 decided matches+0.6%Fence and openFence and open: 50.9% over 6,605 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 50.5% over 13,671 decided matches+0.2%Full fenceFull fence: 50.5% over 13,543 decided matches+0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.4% over 13,140 decided matches+0.1%RectangleRectangle: 50.0% over 13,389 decided matches-0.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.9% over 12,856 decided matches-0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 12,319 decided matches-0.7%Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 13,230 decided matches-0.7%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jacky52.7%53525053525754535153
Shun52.0%52505051515354575252
Wolf51.7%50505252515550555249
Jeffry51.3%52485255535151514851
Vanessa51.2%52504549514954515454
Jean50.7%52515351515050505148
Goh50.4%54515445505148495150
Pai50.4%49534452505052535051
Akira50.2%50494954495050504952
Lion50.1%49495248525246544751
Sarah49.9%49505049504953535048
Lau49.6%51494751474951495053
Dural49.6%43484346545663534651
El Blaze49.5%50485250504854514252
Lei Fei49.4%46515346475452485146
Kage48.4%48484946464948485050
Eileen47.7%53495047475045404352
Aoi47.5%47464849464547505046
Taka47.5%50474747394742485351
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.1 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.8 to +0.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.967
No wallsNo walls: 50.4% over 39,968 decided matches+0.0%WallsWalls: 50.3% over 78,903 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jacky52.7%5254
Shun52.0%5252
Wolf51.7%5252
Jeffry51.3%5152
Vanessa51.2%5051
Jean50.7%5150
Goh50.4%5150
Pai50.4%5051
Akira50.2%5050
Lion50.1%5051
Sarah49.9%5049
Lau49.6%5049
Dural49.6%4753
El Blaze49.5%4950
Lei Fei49.4%4949
Kage48.4%4848
Eileen47.7%4749
Aoi47.5%4846
Taka47.5%4947
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1220,474
South America144,373
North America26,885
Europe8728
Middle East82
Oceania416
Not recorded61,941
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.3%
Standing#10 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate5.5%
Most picked#8 of 19
Matches counted5,778
Unique players44
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 57.9% — 11 wins, 8 losses57.9%GohGoh: 57.0% — 106 wins, 80 losses57.0%ShunShun: 56.9% — 177 wins, 134 losses56.9%AoiAoi: 54.3% — 121 wins, 102 losses54.3%VanessaVanessa: 53.6% — 195 wins, 169 losses53.6%SarahSarah: 52.6% — 102 wins, 92 losses52.6%EileenEileen: 52.3% — 101 wins, 92 losses52.3%WolfWolf: 52.3% — 158 wins, 144 losses52.3%LionLion: 51.2% — 274 wins, 261 losses51.2%JackyJacky: 51.1% — 246 wins, 235 losses51.1%JeffryJeffry: 49.3% — 135 wins, 139 losses49.3%KageKage: 49.1% — 267 wins, 277 losses49.1%JeanJean: 47.7% — 51 wins, 56 losses47.7%AkiraAkira: 45.8% — 294 wins, 348 losses45.8%Lei FeiLei Fei: 45.7% — 138 wins, 164 losses45.7%El BlazeEl Blaze: 45.6% — 124 wins, 148 losses45.6%PaiPai: 45.0% — 76 wins, 93 losses45.0%LauLau: 43.6% — 236 wins, 305 losses43.6%TakaTaka: 31.9% — 38 wins, 81 losses31.9%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural57.89%11819
Goh56.99%10680186
Shun56.91%177134311
Aoi54.26%121102223
Vanessa53.57%195169364
Sarah52.58%10292194
Eileen52.33%10192193
Wolf52.32%158144302
Lion51.21%274261535
Jacky51.14%246235481
Jeffry49.27%135139274
Kage49.08%267277544
Jean47.66%5156107
Akira45.79%294348642
Lei Fei45.70%138164302
El Blaze45.59%124148272
Pai44.97%7693169
Lau43.62%236305541
Taka31.93%3881119

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 51.5% over 598 decided matches+2.2%Full fenceFull fence: 51.1% over 544 decided matches+1.8%Fence and openFence and open: 50.8% over 297 decided matches+1.5%Low fenceLow fence: 50.5% over 548 decided matches+1.2%Single wallSingle wall: 50.4% over 595 decided matches+1.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.8% over 584 decided matches+0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.1% over 583 decided matches-0.3%OctagonOctagon: 48.5% over 565 decided matches-0.8%RectangleRectangle: 47.1% over 565 decided matches-2.2%Half fenceHalf fence: 46.4% over 586 decided matches-2.9%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural57.9%67·62100100··0·33
Goh57.0%50828041506291485750
Shun56.9%62535953526258685652
Aoi54.3%58505858475740545662
Vanessa53.6%68504256464768504370
Sarah52.6%40553962576229605463
Eileen52.3%38507143673344696252
Wolf52.3%55465861524350654752
Lion51.2%49565943436157494355
Jacky51.1%57454760504842506249
Jeffry49.3%58473156415340763856
Kage49.1%54494954634835404552
Jean47.7%67623367754067332543
Akira45.8%48523841554851414343
Lei Fei45.7%27552342434150546059
El Blaze45.6%48503862385050333156
Pai45.0%50214142719070401353
Lau43.6%43414141584940315535
Taka31.9%5027252215400172550
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-2.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -5.3 to +1.0); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.569
No wallsNo walls: 50.8% over 1,741 decided matches+1.5%WallsWalls: 48.6% over 3,427 decided matches-0.7%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural57.9%6050
Goh57.0%5654
Shun56.9%5955
Aoi54.3%5557
Vanessa53.6%5253
Sarah52.6%5161
Eileen52.3%5452
Wolf52.3%5549
Lion51.2%4953
Jacky51.1%5249
Jeffry49.3%5049
Kage49.1%4954
Jean47.7%4847
Akira45.8%4448
Lei Fei45.7%4549
El Blaze45.6%4349
Pai45.0%3463
Lau43.6%4148
Taka31.9%3130
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.6% over 1,210 decided matches+2.0%OpenOpen: 50.3% over 2,459 decided matches+0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 50.2% over 2,217 decided matches+0.7%Full fenceFull fence: 50.1% over 2,217 decided matches+0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.6% over 2,284 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.5% over 2,433 decided matches+0.0%OctagonOctagon: 49.2% over 2,335 decided matches-0.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.2% over 2,267 decided matches-0.3%RectangleRectangle: 48.7% over 2,317 decided matches-0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.0% over 2,363 decided matches-1.5%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun54.3%59495648515454605653
Dural54.0%60·597160··40·33
Aoi53.8%53496057505449535359
Goh53.7%53657047495476485449
Wolf52.2%54465359534651585054
Vanessa52.0%59494452524858534659
Sarah51.1%46484457575537545554
Eileen51.0%42506148554451555949
Kage50.3%52515054584941464752
Lion50.3%47535446475453504652
Jacky50.0%57464652514949495646
Jean48.5%56564659594462393647
El Blaze48.2%43544654424852454554
Jeffry47.2%50433753394946654053
Lei Fei47.1%40513646444253525253
Pai47.1%47334646636660453249
Akira46.7%47504544504852434446
Lau46.5%45454443564947395343
Taka41.9%53443044314833303847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.9 pts behind walls (95% interval -2.5 to +0.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.546
No wallsNo walls: 50.0% over 7,109 decided matches+0.5%WallsWalls: 49.1% over 13,783 decided matches-0.4%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun54.3%5652
Dural54.0%5841
Aoi53.8%5455
Goh53.7%5451
Wolf52.2%5351
Vanessa52.0%5153
Sarah51.1%5056
Eileen51.0%5250
Kage50.3%5053
Lion50.3%4951
Jacky50.0%5049
Jean48.5%4948
El Blaze48.2%4848
Jeffry47.2%4847
Lei Fei47.1%4747
Pai47.1%4254
Akira46.7%4648
Lau46.5%4549
Taka41.9%4240
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia65,840
North America1459
Europe1370
South America120
Not recorded6225