VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Aoi

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.9%
Standing#10 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate4.1%
Most picked#14 of 19
Matches counted30,805
Unique players197
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
BradBrad: 54.0% — 954 wins, 812 losses54.0%JackyJacky: 52.4% — 1,556 wins, 1,414 losses52.4%Lei FeiLei Fei: 51.7% — 687 wins, 641 losses51.7%SarahSarah: 51.5% — 898 wins, 847 losses51.5%JeanJean: 51.3% — 782 wins, 743 losses51.3%VanessaVanessa: 51.2% — 629 wins, 599 losses51.2%WolfWolf: 51.1% — 970 wins, 928 losses51.1%GohGoh: 50.3% — 855 wins, 844 losses50.3%PaiPai: 49.9% — 771 wins, 773 losses49.9%AkiraAkira: 49.8% — 1,683 wins, 1,700 losses49.8%DuralDural: 49.4% — 119 wins, 122 losses49.4%KageKage: 49.3% — 945 wins, 971 losses49.3%ShunShun: 49.0% — 808 wins, 842 losses49.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 48.9% — 553 wins, 579 losses48.9%LauLau: 48.0% — 1,008 wins, 1,091 losses48.0%EileenEileen: 47.1% — 270 wins, 303 losses47.1%JeffryJeffry: 46.3% — 890 wins, 1,031 losses46.3%LionLion: 45.8% — 780 wins, 923 losses45.8%TakaTaka: 41.3% — 200 wins, 284 losses41.3%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Brad54.02%9548121,766
Jacky52.39%1,5561,4142,970
Lei Fei51.73%6876411,328
Sarah51.46%8988471,745
Jean51.28%7827431,525
Vanessa51.22%6295991,228
Wolf51.11%9709281,898
Goh50.32%8558441,699
Pai49.94%7717731,544
Akira49.75%1,6831,7003,383
Dural49.38%119122241
Kage49.32%9459711,916
Shun48.97%8088421,650
El Blaze48.85%5535791,132
Lau48.02%1,0081,0912,099
Eileen47.12%270303573
Jeffry46.33%8901,0311,921
Lion45.80%7809231,703
Taka41.32%200284484

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 51.3% over 3,067 decided matches+1.5%RectangleRectangle: 50.7% over 3,142 decided matches+0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 50.3% over 1,545 decided matches+0.4%OctagonOctagon: 50.2% over 3,000 decided matches+0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.6% over 3,063 decided matches-0.3%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 3,133 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 49.4% over 2,957 decided matches-0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.1% over 3,123 decided matches-0.7%Low fenceLow fence: 48.8% over 3,094 decided matches-1.0%Full fenceFull fence: 48.6% over 3,120 decided matches-1.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Brad54.0%54575250555956515157
Jacky52.4%52524952505156525952
Lei Fei51.7%48525254465443575554
Sarah51.5%52484748555648515745
Jean51.3%53574449465150545754
Vanessa51.2%44515051515447535154
Wolf51.1%52495150475358545548
Goh50.3%52484946524853495651
Pai49.9%46524653514657444855
Akira49.8%42505349505056474653
Dural49.4%55486527564817335867
Kage49.3%48474748534850534748
Shun49.0%58535347464349395052
El Blaze48.9%40596260444843474742
Lau48.0%46354655535041524752
Eileen47.1%47374240403559565160
Jeffry46.3%49474546404941513754
Lion45.8%46434447423351505148
Taka41.3%29564150374550373837
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.6 to +1.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.843
No wallsNo walls: 49.9% over 9,118 decided matches+0.0%WallsWalls: 49.6% over 18,581 decided matches-0.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Brad54.0%5357
Jacky52.4%5351
Lei Fei51.7%5351
Sarah51.5%5152
Jean51.3%5250
Vanessa51.2%5053
Wolf51.1%5249
Goh50.3%5050
Pai49.9%4950
Akira49.8%4851
Dural49.4%4855
Kage49.3%4850
Shun49.0%5047
El Blaze48.9%5244
Lau48.0%4751
Eileen47.1%4646
Jeffry46.3%4648
Lion45.8%4742
Taka41.3%4240
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 50.8% over 12,582 decided matches+0.8%Fence and openFence and open: 50.4% over 6,305 decided matches+0.4%RectangleRectangle: 50.3% over 12,934 decided matches+0.3%OctagonOctagon: 50.0% over 12,243 decided matches+0.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.9% over 11,832 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.8% over 12,117 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 12,573 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.6% over 12,743 decided matches-0.4%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 12,305 decided matches-0.5%Full fenceFull fence: 49.4% over 12,798 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Brad51.7%52545149535453495053
Jacky51.6%51515051515153525451
Vanessa51.0%47505050515350525253
Lei Fei50.9%49515252495148545152
Jean50.9%53534751485150515352
Sarah50.9%51484948525450515448
Wolf50.4%50495050485153525249
Dural50.2%52505937545126395459
Shun50.1%55525249474851455152
Goh49.9%51494947504952495251
Akira49.9%46495249505153494852
Kage49.9%49484850524950524949
Pai49.8%47514953514754494851
El Blaze49.3%45545654465045484947
Lau49.1%48444753514947514951
Eileen48.5%48434446454455525454
Lion48.0%48474749474350504949
Jeffry47.5%49484748454845484351
Taka45.6%39534751434948414444
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.0 to +0.4); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.478
No wallsNo walls: 50.1% over 37,272 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 49.8% over 74,855 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Brad51.7%5153
Jacky51.6%5251
Vanessa51.0%5052
Lei Fei50.9%5250
Jean50.9%5150
Sarah50.9%5051
Wolf50.4%5149
Dural50.2%4954
Shun50.1%5149
Goh49.9%5050
Akira49.9%4951
Kage49.9%4950
Pai49.8%4950
El Blaze49.3%5148
Lau49.1%4951
Eileen48.5%4848
Lion48.0%4846
Jeffry47.5%4748
Taka45.6%4645
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1620,203
South America115,276
North America103,539
Europe10648
Middle East90
Oceania90
Not recorded42,323
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.8%
Standing#12 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate4.3%
Most picked#14 of 19
Matches counted27,678
Unique players187
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
BradBrad: 55.2% — 852 wins, 691 losses55.2%JackyJacky: 52.6% — 1,430 wins, 1,290 losses52.6%Lei FeiLei Fei: 52.5% — 614 wins, 555 losses52.5%WolfWolf: 51.1% — 939 wins, 899 losses51.1%SarahSarah: 51.1% — 815 wins, 781 losses51.1%JeanJean: 50.9% — 748 wins, 721 losses50.9%VanessaVanessa: 50.1% — 560 wins, 557 losses50.1%GohGoh: 50.1% — 810 wins, 806 losses50.1%LauLau: 49.8% — 838 wins, 844 losses49.8%PaiPai: 49.7% — 670 wins, 678 losses49.7%AkiraAkira: 49.5% — 1,499 wins, 1,528 losses49.5%KageKage: 49.0% — 839 wins, 874 losses49.0%ShunShun: 49.0% — 693 wins, 722 losses49.0%El BlazeEl Blaze: 47.7% — 474 wins, 519 losses47.7%DuralDural: 46.2% — 103 wins, 120 losses46.2%EileenEileen: 46.2% — 223 wins, 260 losses46.2%JeffryJeffry: 46.0% — 836 wins, 981 losses46.0%LionLion: 45.9% — 685 wins, 806 losses45.9%TakaTaka: 40.0% — 167 wins, 251 losses40.0%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Brad55.22%8526911,543
Jacky52.57%1,4301,2902,720
Lei Fei52.52%6145551,169
Wolf51.09%9398991,838
Sarah51.07%8157811,596
Jean50.92%7487211,469
Vanessa50.13%5605571,117
Goh50.12%8108061,616
Lau49.82%8388441,682
Pai49.70%6706781,348
Akira49.52%1,4991,5283,027
Kage48.98%8398741,713
Shun48.98%6937221,415
El Blaze47.73%474519993
Dural46.19%103120223
Eileen46.17%223260483
Jeffry46.01%8369811,817
Lion45.94%6858061,491
Taka39.95%167251418

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 51.5% over 2,761 decided matches+1.6%RectangleRectangle: 50.9% over 2,858 decided matches+1.1%Fence and openFence and open: 50.6% over 1,382 decided matches+0.7%OctagonOctagon: 50.0% over 2,703 decided matches+0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.6% over 2,753 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 49.4% over 2,629 decided matches-0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.3% over 2,792 decided matches-0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 48.9% over 2,832 decided matches-0.9%Low fenceLow fence: 48.8% over 2,773 decided matches-1.1%Half fenceHalf fence: 48.7% over 2,773 decided matches-1.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Brad55.2%56585352556255515259
Jacky52.6%53534852505058535853
Lei Fei52.5%50525254485639585556
Wolf51.1%52495150465457545548
Sarah51.1%52494748555448515644
Jean50.9%54574350454950545752
Vanessa50.1%43505049475345515155
Goh50.1%51484944534851495652
Lau49.8%49354658565246524852
Pai49.7%46524754494557415054
Akira49.5%41505350505056454654
Kage49.0%46464747534749544747
Shun49.0%58535147474450395150
El Blaze47.7%40585857424546494641
Dural46.2%58435221564517335865
Eileen46.2%49373940363658574762
Jeffry46.0%48454646414841503754
Lion45.9%47424248413354505250
Taka40.0%32534347384447353929
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.8 to +1.2); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.799
No wallsNo walls: 49.9% over 8,163 decided matches+0.0%WallsWalls: 49.6% over 16,711 decided matches-0.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Brad55.2%5459
Jacky52.6%5351
Lei Fei52.5%5453
Wolf51.1%5249
Sarah51.1%5151
Jean50.9%5249
Vanessa50.1%4952
Goh50.1%5051
Lau49.8%4854
Pai49.7%4949
Akira49.5%4751
Kage49.0%4850
Shun49.0%5047
El Blaze47.7%5143
Dural46.2%4353
Eileen46.2%4545
Jeffry46.0%4548
Lion45.9%4741
Taka40.0%4137
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OpenOpen: 50.9% over 11,337 decided matches+0.9%Fence and openFence and open: 50.4% over 5,647 decided matches+0.5%RectangleRectangle: 50.3% over 11,789 decided matches+0.4%OctagonOctagon: 49.9% over 11,040 decided matches-0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.8% over 10,625 decided matches-0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.8% over 10,793 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 49.6% over 11,288 decided matches-0.3%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.5% over 11,325 decided matches-0.5%Full fenceFull fence: 49.4% over 11,592 decided matches-0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.3% over 10,941 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Brad52.5%53545251545553505054
Jacky51.7%51515051525154525451
Lei Fei51.2%49505352505245555252
Sarah50.6%51494948525350505447
Jean50.6%53534751485050515351
Vanessa50.4%47495049505250515254
Wolf50.4%50495150485152525250
Shun50.1%55525248484852465150
Lau50.0%49444754535149514951
Goh49.8%51495046514950495251
Pai49.8%47504953514753484951
Kage49.8%48484849525050524948
Akira49.7%46485150505153484852
Dural48.9%53475436545026395459
El Blaze48.3%44535451454844484847
Lion47.9%49464748464251504950
Eileen47.9%49434346434553525154
Jeffry47.2%49474748454745484351
Taka44.9%40524850434746414440
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls-0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.1 to +0.3); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.600
No wallsNo walls: 50.1% over 33,418 decided matches+0.1%WallsWalls: 49.7% over 67,312 decided matches-0.2%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Brad52.5%5254
Jacky51.7%5251
Lei Fei51.2%5251
Sarah50.6%5051
Jean50.6%5149
Vanessa50.4%5052
Wolf50.4%5150
Shun50.1%5149
Lau50.0%4952
Goh49.8%5050
Pai49.8%4949
Kage49.8%4950
Akira49.7%4951
Dural48.9%4754
El Blaze48.3%5047
Lion47.9%4846
Eileen47.9%4748
Jeffry47.2%4748
Taka44.9%4544
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia1517,248
South America115,268
North America93,502
Europe12513
Middle East90
Oceania90
Not recorded32,295
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate50.0%
Standing#8 of 19 · tier B
Pick rate2.8%
Most picked#17 of 19
Matches counted3,127
Unique players21
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
DuralDural: 88.9% — 16 wins, 2 losses88.9%VanessaVanessa: 62.2% — 69 wins, 42 losses62.2%JeanJean: 60.7% — 34 wins, 22 losses60.7%El BlazeEl Blaze: 56.8% — 79 wins, 60 losses56.8%SarahSarah: 55.7% — 83 wins, 66 losses55.7%GohGoh: 54.2% — 45 wins, 38 losses54.2%EileenEileen: 52.2% — 47 wins, 43 losses52.2%KageKage: 52.2% — 106 wins, 97 losses52.2%JeffryJeffry: 51.9% — 54 wins, 50 losses51.9%AkiraAkira: 51.7% — 184 wins, 172 losses51.7%WolfWolf: 51.7% — 31 wins, 29 losses51.7%PaiPai: 51.5% — 101 wins, 95 losses51.5%JackyJacky: 50.4% — 126 wins, 124 losses50.4%TakaTaka: 50.0% — 33 wins, 33 losses50.0%ShunShun: 48.9% — 115 wins, 120 losses48.9%Lei FeiLei Fei: 45.9% — 73 wins, 86 losses45.9%BradBrad: 45.7% — 102 wins, 121 losses45.7%LionLion: 44.8% — 95 wins, 117 losses44.8%LauLau: 40.8% — 170 wins, 247 losses40.8%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Dural88.89%16218
Vanessa62.16%6942111
Jean60.71%342256
El Blaze56.83%7960139
Sarah55.70%8366149
Goh54.22%453883
Eileen52.22%474390
Kage52.22%10697203
Jeffry51.92%5450104
Akira51.69%184172356
Wolf51.67%312960
Pai51.53%10195196
Jacky50.40%126124250
Taka50.00%333366
Shun48.94%115120235
Lei Fei45.91%7386159
Brad45.74%102121223
Lion44.81%95117212
Lau40.77%170247417

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 52.6% over 350 decided matches+2.6%OctagonOctagon: 51.9% over 297 decided matches+1.9%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.6% over 341 decided matches+1.6%OpenOpen: 50.0% over 306 decided matches+0.0%Single wallSingle wall: 49.7% over 328 decided matches-0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.4% over 310 decided matches-0.6%Low fenceLow fence: 49.2% over 321 decided matches-0.8%RectangleRectangle: 48.9% over 284 decided matches-1.0%Fence and openFence and open: 47.9% over 163 decided matches-2.1%Full fenceFull fence: 45.8% over 288 decided matches-4.2%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural88.9%33100100100·100···100
Vanessa62.2%75604567776467754446
Jean60.7%384067336778··75100
El Blaze56.8%42627990505933207560
Sarah55.7%50394850567550568853
Goh54.2%60554473254071545733
Eileen52.2%25505042622967566250
Kage52.2%62644859474853464854
Jeffry51.9%57643333336750643350
Akira51.7%52535330525056625050
Wolf51.7%55502550834010062·25
Pai51.5%47533845585767604161
Jacky50.4%50525852455417486430
Taka50.0%07133803357100503359
Shun48.9%56586048383838334260
Lei Fei45.9%33564857354162475038
Brad45.7%42504242534360464438
Lion44.8%38486742564031504636
Lau40.8%30354446393918464349
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.5 pts behind walls (95% interval -3.7 to +4.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.887
WallsWalls: 50.2% over 1,870 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 49.6% over 955 decided matches-0.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural88.9%87100
Vanessa62.2%6162
Jean60.7%4780
El Blaze56.8%6155
Sarah55.7%5262
Goh54.2%5733
Eileen52.2%5048
Kage52.2%5349
Jeffry51.9%5250
Akira51.7%5251
Wolf51.7%5248
Pai51.5%4759
Jacky50.4%5446
Taka50.0%4752
Shun48.9%5147
Lei Fei45.9%4838
Brad45.7%4543
Lion44.8%4743
Lau40.8%4043
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
OctagonOctagon: 51.2% over 1,203 decided matches+0.9%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.2% over 1,364 decided matches+0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 50.7% over 1,418 decided matches+0.4%RectangleRectangle: 50.3% over 1,145 decided matches-0.0%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 50.2% over 1,207 decided matches-0.1%OpenOpen: 50.0% over 1,245 decided matches-0.3%Fence and openFence and open: 50.0% over 658 decided matches-0.3%Single wallSingle wall: 49.9% over 1,324 decided matches-0.4%Low fenceLow fence: 49.9% over 1,285 decided matches-0.5%Full fenceFull fence: 49.4% over 1,206 decided matches-0.9%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Dural67.1%43867367·67···75
Vanessa57.3%65564961646160655246
Jean57.2%485261465765··6279
El Blaze56.2%45566578545749437757
Sarah53.2%56444640526253566453
Eileen51.9%44504746563973536152
Goh51.3%55554757334266495042
Akira51.2%49535441545150574949
Jeffry51.2%54584343435446554350
Jacky50.7%50525349485432495944
Kage50.6%55534757484850504953
Shun50.6%57535453414643415058
Pai50.2%46544548505568554651
Taka49.8%296044633958100464153
Wolf49.8%5544414465416058·44
Lei Fei49.1%49535052434060524850
Lion48.4%47485649574842474944
Brad46.2%47514043504651474741
Lau45.8%44434648454434494850
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.6 pts behind walls (95% interval -1.6 to +2.8); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.729
WallsWalls: 50.5% over 7,543 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 50.0% over 3,854 decided matches-0.4%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Dural67.1%6769
Vanessa57.3%5757
Jean57.2%5265
El Blaze56.2%5855
Sarah53.2%5056
Eileen51.9%5049
Goh51.3%5240
Akira51.2%5152
Jeffry51.2%5149
Jacky50.7%5250
Kage50.6%5149
Shun50.6%5149
Pai50.2%4951
Taka49.8%4851
Wolf49.8%5147
Lei Fei49.1%5144
Lion48.4%4949
Brad46.2%4645
Lau45.8%4647
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia162,955
North America1837
Europe8135
South America78
Not recorded1728