VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Every character

Akira

The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate49.3%
Standing#15 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate10.6%
Most picked#1 of 19
Matches counted73,960
Unique players448
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
ShunShun: 51.4% — 2,088 wins, 1,978 losses51.4%PaiPai: 51.2% — 1,866 wins, 1,780 losses51.2%BradBrad: 50.5% — 2,055 wins, 2,017 losses50.5%EileenEileen: 50.4% — 644 wins, 633 losses50.4%AoiAoi: 50.2% — 1,700 wins, 1,683 losses50.2%VanessaVanessa: 50.2% — 1,598 wins, 1,586 losses50.2%JackyJacky: 50.0% — 4,111 wins, 4,107 losses50.0%WolfWolf: 50.0% — 2,469 wins, 2,467 losses50.0%SarahSarah: 49.5% — 2,087 wins, 2,126 losses49.5%GohGoh: 49.5% — 2,268 wins, 2,312 losses49.5%KageKage: 48.7% — 2,482 wins, 2,618 losses48.7%JeffryJeffry: 48.5% — 2,288 wins, 2,426 losses48.5%JeanJean: 48.5% — 2,111 wins, 2,243 losses48.5%DuralDural: 48.4% — 451 wins, 481 losses48.4%LauLau: 48.2% — 2,309 wins, 2,483 losses48.2%LionLion: 48.1% — 2,206 wins, 2,377 losses48.1%Lei FeiLei Fei: 47.3% — 1,644 wins, 1,829 losses47.3%El BlazeEl Blaze: 47.3% — 1,387 wins, 1,546 losses47.3%TakaTaka: 44.3% — 666 wins, 838 losses44.3%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Shun51.35%2,0881,9784,066
Pai51.18%1,8661,7803,646
Brad50.47%2,0552,0174,072
Eileen50.43%6446331,277
Aoi50.25%1,7001,6833,383
Vanessa50.19%1,5981,5863,184
Jacky50.02%4,1114,1078,218
Wolf50.02%2,4692,4674,936
Sarah49.54%2,0872,1264,213
Goh49.52%2,2682,3124,580
Kage48.67%2,4822,6185,100
Jeffry48.54%2,2882,4264,714
Jean48.48%2,1112,2434,354
Dural48.39%451481932
Lau48.18%2,3092,4834,792
Lion48.13%2,2062,3774,583
Lei Fei47.34%1,6441,8293,473
El Blaze47.29%1,3871,5462,933
Taka44.28%6668381,504

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 50.1% over 7,349 decided matches+0.8%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.9% over 7,506 decided matches+0.7%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.8% over 7,337 decided matches+0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 49.8% over 7,569 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 49.6% over 7,373 decided matches+0.3%OctagonOctagon: 49.4% over 7,827 decided matches+0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.8% over 7,145 decided matches-0.5%Single wallSingle wall: 48.6% over 7,418 decided matches-0.7%Fence and openFence and open: 48.5% over 3,640 decided matches-0.7%Low fenceLow fence: 48.3% over 7,245 decided matches-1.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun51.4%49515253524951505752
Pai51.2%52505449494960495352
Brad50.5%52525444514949515350
Eileen50.4%51474852514757515353
Aoi50.2%58504751505044535447
Vanessa50.2%45485351475148544854
Jacky50.0%52504848485053505152
Wolf50.0%51495150465151504652
Sarah49.5%49515150485048465548
Goh49.5%52534550474647525251
Kage48.7%53495149465048455046
Jeffry48.5%46505249454948484851
Jean48.5%45525147494751504849
Dural48.4%44444351535749405454
Lau48.2%48474948514741514846
Lion48.1%46524948504743504546
Lei Fei47.3%50484746455045464550
El Blaze47.3%45444949484350495146
Taka44.3%50454140453842484549
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.8 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.1 to +1.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.235
WallsWalls: 49.6% over 44,733 decided matches+0.4%No wallsNo walls: 48.8% over 22,036 decided matches-0.4%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun51.4%5251
Pai51.2%5150
Brad50.5%5150
Eileen50.4%5051
Aoi50.2%5249
Vanessa50.2%5051
Jacky50.0%5050
Wolf50.0%5050
Sarah49.5%5049
Goh49.5%5148
Kage48.7%4947
Jeffry48.5%4948
Jean48.5%4948
Dural48.4%4655
Lau48.2%4948
Lion48.1%4847
Lei Fei47.3%4749
El Blaze47.3%4846
Taka44.3%4544
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 49.9% over 30,134 decided matches+0.4%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.9% over 30,726 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 49.8% over 31,005 decided matches+0.3%OctagonOctagon: 49.7% over 32,143 decided matches+0.2%OpenOpen: 49.7% over 30,224 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.6% over 28,208 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.3% over 30,370 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 49.2% over 29,637 decided matches-0.3%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 49.1% over 27,657 decided matches-0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 48.9% over 14,833 decided matches-0.6%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun51.9%51525353535150515453
Pai50.5%51505250494956505150
Brad50.3%50515248515049515249
Aoi50.1%54514851504947515248
Vanessa50.1%49495150495148524952
Eileen50.0%50484951494654515252
Wolf50.0%51495150485151494851
Jacky49.8%51494948495051505150
Goh49.5%50524850484848505051
Sarah49.5%49505149495049495249
Jean49.2%48505147494850504950
Lion49.1%48514949504946504848
Kage49.0%51494949485048475048
Jeffry49.0%48505049474948494950
Lau48.9%49494948514845504948
Dural48.8%47464749525349445350
Lei Fei48.4%50474847475148484750
El Blaze48.0%46464949494649485048
Taka46.9%49484546464345504848
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.3 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.2 to +0.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.407
WallsWalls: 49.7% over 179,873 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 49.4% over 90,231 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun51.9%5252
Pai50.5%5150
Brad50.3%5150
Aoi50.1%5149
Vanessa50.1%5051
Eileen50.0%5049
Wolf50.0%5050
Jacky49.8%5050
Goh49.5%5049
Sarah49.5%5049
Jean49.2%4949
Lion49.1%4949
Kage49.0%4949
Jeffry49.0%4949
Lau48.9%4949
Dural48.8%4752
Lei Fei48.4%4850
El Blaze48.0%4848
Taka46.9%4846
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia250,127
South America116,029
North America17,388
Europe13,133
Middle East1391
Oceania80
Not recorded25,548
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate48.9%
Standing#17 of 19 · tier C
Pick rate10.8%
Most picked#1 of 19
Matches counted64,360
Unique players422
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
PaiPai: 51.4% — 1,685 wins, 1,594 losses51.4%ShunShun: 50.9% — 1,751 wins, 1,692 losses50.9%AoiAoi: 50.5% — 1,528 wins, 1,499 losses50.5%BradBrad: 49.8% — 1,707 wins, 1,723 losses49.8%JackyJacky: 49.7% — 3,550 wins, 3,588 losses49.7%WolfWolf: 49.6% — 2,272 wins, 2,310 losses49.6%GohGoh: 49.5% — 2,124 wins, 2,170 losses49.5%EileenEileen: 49.0% — 467 wins, 485 losses49.0%SarahSarah: 48.9% — 1,803 wins, 1,881 losses48.9%VanessaVanessa: 48.7% — 1,225 wins, 1,290 losses48.7%LauLau: 48.6% — 1,859 wins, 1,964 losses48.6%DuralDural: 48.4% — 429 wins, 458 losses48.4%JeanJean: 48.4% — 2,020 wins, 2,157 losses48.4%JeffryJeffry: 47.9% — 2,123 wins, 2,309 losses47.9%LionLion: 47.9% — 1,818 wins, 1,978 losses47.9%KageKage: 47.8% — 2,004 wins, 2,193 losses47.8%El BlazeEl Blaze: 47.3% — 1,169 wins, 1,301 losses47.3%Lei FeiLei Fei: 47.2% — 1,393 wins, 1,559 losses47.2%TakaTaka: 43.6% — 559 wins, 723 losses43.6%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Pai51.39%1,6851,5943,279
Shun50.86%1,7511,6923,443
Aoi50.48%1,5281,4993,027
Brad49.77%1,7071,7233,430
Jacky49.73%3,5503,5887,138
Wolf49.59%2,2722,3104,582
Goh49.46%2,1242,1704,294
Eileen49.05%467485952
Sarah48.94%1,8031,8813,684
Vanessa48.71%1,2251,2902,515
Lau48.63%1,8591,9643,823
Dural48.37%429458887
Jean48.36%2,0202,1574,177
Jeffry47.90%2,1232,3094,432
Lion47.89%1,8181,9783,796
Kage47.75%2,0042,1934,197
El Blaze47.33%1,1691,3012,470
Lei Fei47.19%1,3931,5592,952
Taka43.60%5597231,282

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 49.9% over 6,363 decided matches+1.0%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.5% over 6,359 decided matches+0.6%Full fenceFull fence: 49.5% over 6,638 decided matches+0.6%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.4% over 6,483 decided matches+0.5%OpenOpen: 49.4% over 6,435 decided matches+0.5%OctagonOctagon: 49.1% over 6,814 decided matches+0.2%Single wallSingle wall: 48.3% over 6,507 decided matches-0.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.1% over 6,189 decided matches-0.8%Low fenceLow fence: 48.1% over 6,368 decided matches-0.8%Fence and openFence and open: 47.9% over 3,156 decided matches-1.0%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Pai51.4%53505451494959485352
Shun50.9%48505153515150495752
Aoi50.5%59504750505044555446
Brad49.8%52525241524849505348
Jacky49.7%50494848485153495152
Wolf49.6%51495150465149504652
Goh49.5%52534550474646525250
Eileen49.0%47495052524354515050
Sarah48.9%49515049475050455447
Vanessa48.7%43464950495045524454
Lau48.6%50464947514842534945
Dural48.4%44454252535449405452
Jean48.4%45515246494751504948
Jeffry47.9%45505249454748474750
Lion47.9%46534846494644514448
Kage47.8%51485148454946445045
El Blaze47.3%46434850474351475248
Lei Fei47.2%52494645445040474550
Taka43.6%49434241433738474548
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.7 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.3 to +1.6); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.380
WallsWalls: 49.3% over 38,846 decided matches+0.3%No wallsNo walls: 48.6% over 19,310 decided matches-0.3%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Pai51.4%5150
Shun50.9%5151
Aoi50.5%5349
Brad49.8%5049
Jacky49.7%4950
Wolf49.6%4950
Goh49.5%5148
Eileen49.0%5049
Sarah48.9%5048
Vanessa48.7%4851
Lau48.6%4948
Dural48.4%4653
Jean48.4%4948
Jeffry47.9%4847
Lion47.9%4847
Kage47.8%4946
El Blaze47.3%4846
Lei Fei47.2%4748
Taka43.6%4543
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
RectangleRectangle: 49.8% over 26,099 decided matches+0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 49.6% over 26,548 decided matches+0.3%Full fenceFull fence: 49.5% over 27,174 decided matches+0.2%OpenOpen: 49.5% over 26,384 decided matches+0.2%OctagonOctagon: 49.5% over 27,969 decided matches+0.2%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 49.4% over 24,429 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 49.1% over 26,604 decided matches-0.2%Low fenceLow fence: 49.0% over 26,059 decided matches-0.2%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 48.8% over 23,929 decided matches-0.5%Fence and openFence and open: 48.5% over 12,863 decided matches-0.8%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun51.4%50515252525150505452
Pai50.6%52515250495055495150
Aoi50.3%54524950504947525248
Brad49.8%50515146515050505148
Wolf49.7%50495150485050494851
Jacky49.6%50484948495050505151
Goh49.5%50524850484747515051
Eileen49.3%48504951504352515250
Vanessa49.3%47485049505145514751
Lau49.2%50484948524945514947
Sarah49.1%49505048484950485148
Jean49.1%48505147494850505050
Lion48.9%48514948504846514749
Dural48.8%47474749525249445349
Jeffry48.7%47505049474848484950
Kage48.3%50484948484947465047
Lei Fei48.2%50484847465046484751
El Blaze48.1%47454950504649485049
Taka46.8%49464647454343504948
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.2 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.2 to +0.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.602
WallsWalls: 49.5% over 156,148 decided matches+0.2%No wallsNo walls: 49.2% over 79,047 decided matches-0.1%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun51.4%5252
Pai50.6%5150
Aoi50.3%5149
Brad49.8%5050
Wolf49.7%5050
Jacky49.6%4950
Goh49.5%5049
Eileen49.3%5048
Vanessa49.3%4951
Lau49.2%4949
Sarah49.1%4948
Jean49.1%4949
Lion48.9%4949
Dural48.8%4851
Jeffry48.7%4948
Kage48.3%4948
Lei Fei48.2%4849
El Blaze48.1%4848
Taka46.8%4845
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia239,925
South America116,029
North America17,228
Europe13,072
Middle East1391
Oceania80
Not recorded15,523
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
Win rate51.5%
Standing#5 of 19 · tier A
Pick rate9.3%
Most picked#2 of 19
Matches counted9,600
Unique players61
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/09/23

Against the roster

Win rate in each matchup, over decided non-mirror matches
JeffryJeffry: 58.5% — 165 wins, 117 losses58.5%VanessaVanessa: 55.8% — 373 wins, 296 losses55.8%WolfWolf: 55.6% — 197 wins, 157 losses55.6%EileenEileen: 54.5% — 177 wins, 148 losses54.5%BradBrad: 54.2% — 348 wins, 294 losses54.2%ShunShun: 54.1% — 337 wins, 286 losses54.1%SarahSarah: 53.7% — 284 wins, 245 losses53.7%KageKage: 52.9% — 478 wins, 425 losses52.9%JackyJacky: 51.9% — 561 wins, 519 losses51.9%JeanJean: 51.4% — 91 wins, 86 losses51.4%GohGoh: 50.4% — 144 wins, 142 losses50.4%PaiPai: 49.3% — 181 wins, 186 losses49.3%LionLion: 49.3% — 388 wins, 399 losses49.3%DuralDural: 48.9% — 22 wins, 23 losses48.9%AoiAoi: 48.3% — 172 wins, 184 losses48.3%TakaTaka: 48.2% — 107 wins, 115 losses48.2%Lei FeiLei Fei: 48.2% — 251 wins, 270 losses48.2%El BlazeEl Blaze: 47.1% — 218 wins, 245 losses47.1%LauLau: 46.4% — 450 wins, 519 losses46.4%
OpponentWin %WinsLossesMatches
Jeffry58.51%165117282
Vanessa55.75%373296669
Wolf55.65%197157354
Eileen54.46%177148325
Brad54.21%348294642
Shun54.09%337286623
Sarah53.69%284245529
Kage52.93%478425903
Jacky51.94%5615191,080
Jean51.41%9186177
Goh50.35%144142286
Pai49.32%181186367
Lion49.30%388399787
Dural48.89%222345
Aoi48.31%172184356
Taka48.20%107115222
Lei Fei48.18%251270521
El Blaze47.08%218245463
Lau46.44%450519969

Stage Impact To Win Probability

Change from this character's own win rate, in points
Half fenceHalf fence: 53.1% over 1,023 decided matches+1.6%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 52.6% over 956 decided matches+1.1%Fence and openFence and open: 52.3% over 484 decided matches+0.8%Full fenceFull fence: 52.0% over 931 decided matches+0.5%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 51.9% over 978 decided matches+0.4%OctagonOctagon: 51.6% over 1,013 decided matches+0.1%OpenOpen: 51.0% over 938 decided matches-0.5%RectangleRectangle: 50.9% over 986 decided matches-0.6%Single wallSingle wall: 50.5% over 911 decided matches-1.0%Low fenceLow fence: 49.7% over 877 decided matches-1.8%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage

Win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Jeffry58.5%52595665468156596167
Vanessa55.8%54556452415660656157
Wolf55.6%60575356465371584756
Eileen54.5%70434552435769516061
Brad54.2%52486259455249595757
Shun54.1%53586055554054545451
Sarah53.7%50505555615633526251
Kage52.9%65565054485559484854
Jacky51.9%63555052474152564650
Jean51.4%53543765545867652852
Goh50.4%43515057445167505055
Pai49.3%43505437524967535556
Lion49.3%49475454555041465234
Dural48.9%33050383386504350100
Aoi48.3%48474770485044385050
Taka48.2%53624035575453524453
Lei Fei48.2%42455353495364394550
El Blaze47.1%40535542504745584835
Lau46.4%42525052504135424447
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Against this character's own rate, in points
Walls or no walls+1.6 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.9 to +4.1); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.569
WallsWalls: 52.0% over 5,887 decided matches+0.5%No wallsNo walls: 50.4% over 2,726 decided matches-1.1%
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Win Probability

Win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Jeffry58.5%5861
Vanessa55.8%5951
Wolf55.6%5552
Eileen54.5%5255
Brad54.2%5652
Shun54.1%5550
Sarah53.7%5457
Kage52.9%5352
Jacky51.9%5446
Jean51.4%5054
Goh50.4%5151
Pai49.3%4852
Lion49.3%5047
Dural48.9%3777
Aoi48.3%4849
Taka48.2%4755
Lei Fei48.2%4651
El Blaze47.1%4945
Lau46.4%4746
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage
The same figures as a 1080×1080 card, for posting. Click it to copy the image. Full size ↗

Stage Impact To Round Win Probability

Change from this character's own round win rate, in points
Fence and openFence and open: 51.9% over 1,970 decided matches+0.9%Full fenceFull fence: 51.5% over 3,831 decided matches+0.5%Half fenceHalf fence: 51.4% over 4,178 decided matches+0.4%OctagonOctagon: 51.1% over 4,174 decided matches+0.1%Breakable half fenceBreakable half fence: 51.1% over 3,728 decided matches+0.1%Single wallSingle wall: 51.0% over 3,766 decided matches-0.0%OpenOpen: 50.9% over 3,840 decided matches-0.1%Breakable full fenceBreakable full fence: 50.9% over 3,779 decided matches-0.1%RectangleRectangle: 50.7% over 4,035 decided matches-0.3%Low fenceLow fence: 50.2% over 3,578 decided matches-0.8%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Each matchup, stage by stage, in rounds

Round win rate in that matchup on that stage
OpponentFullBreak. fullHalfBreak. halfLowWallMixedOctRectOpen
Shun54.8%52575653584853535456
Jeffry53.9%49525357497249565260
Brad53.3%53505556505248575654
Vanessa53.2%54515852455156565555
Wolf52.7%56525053485360544853
Sarah52.2%52485453555342515653
Kage52.1%57554953485356515152
Eileen51.9%60454950485360505256
Jean51.2%51504558555564564051
Jacky51.0%57515049524651544949
Goh50.7%49515152475362484856
Lion49.9%49515252525347475140
Pai49.8%49485344474963545551
Lei Fei49.5%49455052515358474648
Aoi48.8%51474659464950435151
Dural48.6%46255041427244444769
Lau47.8%46515048504642454848
Taka47.5%49584240504853494249
El Blaze47.4%44525144485047524743
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Against this character's own round rate, in points
Walls or no walls+0.4 pts behind walls (95% interval -0.9 to +1.7); within chance across the 20 characters tested, q=0.729
WallsWalls: 51.1% over 23,725 decided matches+0.1%No wallsNo walls: 50.7% over 11,184 decided matches-0.3%
How significance is decided
  • Each gap is two win rates compared with a pooled two-proportion z test, over decided matches only.
  • The 95% interval is Newcombe's hybrid score method, which keeps its shape near 0% and 100% where a symmetric interval does not.
  • q is p corrected for how many tests were asked at once, by Benjamini–Hochberg at a 5% false discovery rate. A figure is called real on q, never on p alone.
  • Standard errors are widened by a measured design effect, because one player appears in many matches and those matches are not independent of each other.
  • Stages are assigned at random, so a gap between them is the stage's own effect and not a difference in who chose to play where.

Walls Impact To Round Win Probability

Round win rate in that matchup with a wall, and without
OpponentWallsNo walls
Shun54.8%5454
Jeffry53.9%5358
Brad53.3%5452
Vanessa53.2%5550
Wolf52.7%5252
Sarah52.2%5354
Kage52.1%5251
Eileen51.9%5153
Jean51.2%5053
Jacky51.0%5249
Goh50.7%5052
Lion49.9%5049
Pai49.8%5049
Lei Fei49.5%4851
Aoi48.8%4948
Dural48.6%4364
Lau47.8%4848
Taka47.5%4649
El Blaze47.4%4847
Worse on this stageNo changeBetter on this stage

Where they are played

Share of that region's own picks, and where that ranks
RegionShareStandingAppearances
Asia210,202
North America10160
Europe1561
South America110
Not recorded1825