VirtuAnalytics

Novel Insights Through Data & Analysis

Virtua Fighter 5 REVO · v1.10 · Region: Asia

Jacky

crazydog

  • Lion
  • Vanessa
  • Akira
  • Kage
  • Jeffry
  • Lau
  • Jean
  • Brad
  • El Blaze
  • Goh
Career matches8,751
Career win rate65.3%
Round win rate58.0%
Peak rank44
Distinct opponents392
Period2026/03/26 – 2026/10/18

Elo rating

Overall, and on each character played 10+ times

1951 #75 of 3,686 on the Elo list →

The overall rating moves on every match, whatever was picked; a character's rating adds this player's own adjustment on it. Both run from every recorded match since v1.10; how they are worked out is on the Elo list.

Characters played — VF5's own record

Jacky433,2101,9501,26060.8%
Lion441,8061,18961765.8%
Kage431,10474336167.3%
Akira4349535314271.3%
Vanessa4144327017361.0%
Jean4243929714267.7%
Jeffry4340028411671.0%
Lau4137124812366.8%
Taka—2542054980.7%
Goh34103792476.7%
El Blaze3546351176.1%
Brad343425973.5%
Shun—2520580.0%
Wolf—2113861.9%

These are the totals VF5 keeps for each character, read from the newest replay stored for it. They cover the player's whole ranked career and take no period.

Inputs per second

7,066 of 8,219 rounds counted

7.2 inputs a second (434 a minute) this season. Faster than 52% of the 4,069 regulars with enough rounds counted to compare.

By character played

Jacky7.24342,640
Lion7.44442,101
Vanessa6.5392786
Akira8.3498452
Kage7.2432606
Jeffry6.7401230
Lau7.545364
Brad6.8407107
El Blaze6.740380

By opponent's character

Akira7.2434675
Brad6.7404610
Jacky7.3436585
Lion7.5451459
Shun7.3436447
Sarah6.9414402
Kage7.4442448
El Blaze7.4443423
Lau7.5447426
Eileen7.2430332
Goh7.6457355
Vanessa7.3436366
Pai7.4444326
Jeffry7.2432225
Wolf7.4447217
Aoi7.0421212
Jean7.4443219
Lei Fei7.0419140
Taka6.5393184
Dural7.645515

An input is any change on the controller (a new stick direction, a button pressed or released) from the bell to the moment a round is decided, over the live time of the round. Only rounds whose inputs have been decoded are counted. Who you face changes the pace too: see the inputs-per-second article under News.

Against each character

Akira1931227163.2%-1.1
Brad1671076064.1%-4.2
Jacky163996460.7%-4.0
Lion133894466.9%+3.8
Shun132894367.4%+3.0
Sarah126883869.8%+8.5
Kage120754562.5%-2.3
El Blaze119536644.5%-15.2
Lau117675057.3%-8.1
Eileen111822973.9%+12.2
Goh111605154.0%-8.5
Vanessa104733170.2%+9.0
Pai90563462.2%-4.6
Jeffry68442464.7%+1.3
Wolf65442167.7%+5.1
Aoi62431969.3%+2.8
Jean59441574.6%+7.3
Lei Fei57411671.9%+10.3
Taka48341470.8%+1.6
Dural53260.0%-12.1

0 of 19 rows differ from what this player's level and their opponents' ranks predict, once the test allows for asking 19 questions at once; about 1.0 would by chance alone.

A matchup row is the particular people played on that character, not the character in general: one strong regular moves it as much as the matchup does.

By ring shape

Octagon2241487666.1%+2.7
Breakable Half Fence2151447167.0%+2.5
Open2121337962.7%-3.1
Single Wall2081446469.2%+5.0
Rectangle2061188857.3%-6.0
Low Fence2011366567.7%+3.2
Half Fence1951187760.5%-3.2
Full Fence1931256864.8%+3.7
Breakable Full Fence1901226864.2%-1.0
Full Fence and Open111654658.6%-6.9

0 of 10 rows differ from what this player's level and their opponents' ranks predict, once the test allows for asking 10 questions at once; about 0.5 would by chance alone.

With or without walls

StagesMatchesWin %Expectedvs expected
Walls1,22363.4%63.5%-0.2
No walls62166.5%65.0%+1.5

Walls against open: -1.6 points (95% range -6.8 to +3.5), p 0.533 — no measurable difference.

The fence-and-open stages and Training Room are on neither side, as on the stage report.

How these are tested
  • Each match gets an expected result from the two players' ranks, read off the ladder's rank-against-rank win rates, and shifted by one number per player so the expected wins add up to the actual ones. A row's gap is how far above that expectation it sits, against the same measure over the player's other matches.
  • Matches against the same opponent are not independent, so each test is widened by how unevenly this player's results fall across the people they played. Rows under 30 decided matches or 10 different opponents on either side carry no test, and each table is corrected for the number of rows tested in it.
  • Not adjusted for: how strong an opponent is for their rank. Rank carries most of it; the rest needs a rating model.

Most played opponents

Most played opponents, most recent first

マハリータまるこ (Rank 40)2026/09/272114766.7%
DAMDAM (Rank 40)2026/09/271610662.5%
★闘将拉麵男★ (Rank 40)2026/09/2736221461.1%
しょべるん (Rank 40)2026/09/272213959.1%
lesser-pram7 (Rank 40)2026/09/271881044.4%
ankocat2 (Rank 39)2026/09/261712570.6%
okinawa_39 (Rank 40)2026/09/253629780.6%
いくお (Rank 41)2026/09/2574284637.8%
ikkyusaaan (Rank 39)2026/09/2242291369.0%
カルティカ (Rank 42)2026/09/2235241168.6%
ATTIME (Rank 40)2026/09/181712570.6%
愛蒔らぶり (Rank 41)2026/09/17169756.2%
cyomiko (Rank 42)2026/09/1746351176.1%
『ρε』.α (Rank 41)2026/09/152619773.1%
合算のよい竿渡り (Rank 41)2026/09/14168850.0%
デネ (Rank 42)2026/09/14167943.8%
加減しはらんとい亭 (Rank 42)2026/09/141810855.6%
إدارةسيجامشطبيعية (Rank 40)2026/09/132718966.7%
shenron0321 (Rank 42)2026/08/2626131350.0%
CLEARCARE (Rank 41)2026/08/212215768.2%
KA-GO (Rank 42)2026/08/181712570.6%
アルチャチャ (Rank 40)2026/08/031712570.6%
全身ボロボロポックリ (Rank 43)2026/07/312791833.3%
かえる (Rank 38)2026/07/271914573.7%
jinmenusagi (Rank 41)2026/07/11169756.2%

Round openings

Every character

backdash into evade up3944.8%
backdash into evade down3674.5%
punchP3133.8%
crouch dash forward into guardG2392.9%
forward dash into Low Spin Kick1K+G1792.2%
Middle Smash6P1752.1%
Low Spin Kick1241.5%
crouch dash forward into Smash Straight3P1171.4%
guardG1151.4%
Banchu6P1091.3%
Squat Straight2P911.1%
backdash into Dash Hammer Kick66K831.0%
guardG into evade down821.0%
Katousui2P into backdash791.0%
Tourou Hassou41236P780.9%

1,093 further openings account for the other 5,638 rounds.

Counted from 2,038 of the 2,050 matches played. The rest were not pulled for openings.

Jacky

Career
1,950–1,260 · 60.8%
This season
706 matches · 63.9%
Peak rank
43

First hit in 46.9% of 2,784 rounds. Won 60.5% of the rounds they struck first, 56.1% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

  • In round 1: backs off first in 35.4% of rounds, against 23.3% in their other rounds.
  • Against Shun: waits first in 15.2% of rounds, against 6.9% against everyone else.
  • On Full Fence stages: backs off first in 34.7% of rounds, against 25.4% on the other stages.
  • After opening the round before by waiting: waits first in 16.7% of rounds, against 6.5% after anything else.
  • After winning a round: backs off first in 31.5% of rounds, against 12.5% after losing one.
  • When behind: attacks straight away in 54.2% of rounds, against 35.8% when ahead or level.
  • In round 4 or later: opens with “forward dash into 1K+G Low Spin Kick” in 10.4% of rounds, against 5.1% in their other rounds.
  • Against Kage: opens with “6P Middle Smash” in 20.5% of rounds, against 5.4% against everyone else.
  • After opening the round before with “crouch dash forward into G guard”: opens with “crouch dash forward into G guard” in 14.4% of rounds, against 4.5% after anything else.
  • After losing a round: opens with “1K+G Low Spin Kick” in 7.7% of rounds, against 2.9% after winning one.
  • When behind: opens with “1K+G Low Spin Kick” in 8.8% of rounds, against 3.2% when ahead or level.

How is this tested?

forward dash into Low Spin Kick1K+G1796.4%
Middle Smash6P1756.2%
punchP1304.6%
crouch dash forward into guardG1294.6%
Low Spin Kick1K+G1224.3%
crouch dash forward into Smash Straight3P1174.2%
backdash into evade up1134.0%
backdash into evade down1103.9%
Squat Straight2P913.2%
backdash into Dash Hammer Kick66K833.0%
Middle Smash6P into kickK592.1%
guardG521.9%
punchP into Jab StraightPP431.5%
backdash into High Angle Upper Kick6K401.4%
Squat Straight2P into backdash391.4%

255 further openings account for the other 1,321 rounds.

By stage type

Record against each character on walled and open stages, as Jacky

OpponentWallsNo wallsWalls vs open, rank-adjusted, pts
Akira33–21 · 61%15–2 · 88%too few to test
El Blaze13–21 · 38%2–15 · 12%too few to test
Lau14–18 · 44%6–4 · 60%too few to test
Brad17–10 · 63%15–7 · 68%too few to test
Kage16–8 · 67%10–5 · 67%too few to test
Shun16–10 · 62%12–3 · 80%too few to test
Sarah20–8 · 71%11–2 · 85%too few to test
Lion17–8 · 68%9–4 · 69%too few to test
Vanessa22–7 · 76%8–2 · 80%too few to test
Eileen13–9 · 59%10–3 · 77%too few to test
Pai11–9 · 55%8–1 · 89%too few to test
Goh12–10 · 55%2–6 · 25%too few to test
Wolf14–5 · 74%6–3 · 67%too few to test
Jacky14–6 · 70%3–3 · 50%too few to test

Walls: every fence, rectangle and octagon stage. No walls: open, low fence and single-wall stages. Snow Mountain and Training Room are left out.

How is this tested?

Lion

Career
1,189–617 · 65.8%
This season
526 matches · 63.7%
Peak rank
44

First hit in 52.6% of 2,061 rounds. Won 60.5% of the rounds they struck first, 53.8% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

  • In round 1: backs off first in 25.7% of rounds, against 19.5% in their other rounds.
  • Against El Blaze: backs off first in 36.8% of rounds, against 20.1% against everyone else.
  • On Open stages: moves in first in 31.6% of rounds, against 18.4% on the other stages.
  • After opening the round before by backing off: backs off first in 27.7% of rounds, against 17.5% after anything else.
  • After losing a round: attacks straight away in 67.0% of rounds, against 44.3% after winning one.
  • When behind: attacks straight away in 66.4% of rounds, against 48.8% when ahead or level.
  • In round 4 or later: opens with “P punch” in 8.0% of rounds, against 5.4% in their other rounds.
  • Against Akira: opens with “2P Katousui into backdash” in 10.0% of rounds, against 3.2% against everyone else.
  • After opening the round before with “41236P Tourou Hassou”: opens with “41236P Tourou Hassou” in 16.9% of rounds, against 3.5% after anything else.
  • After losing a round: opens with “P punch” in 10.5% of rounds, against 4.6% after winning one.
  • When behind: opens with “6P Banchu” in 9.9% of rounds, against 3.9% when ahead or level.

How is this tested?

punchP1276.1%
Banchu6P1095.2%
backdash into evade down884.2%
Katousui2P into backdash793.8%
Tourou Hassou41236P783.8%
backdash into evade up673.2%
Dantai3K653.1%
crouch dash forward into Sen'inshou3P653.1%
In'you4P582.8%
crouch dash forward into guardG522.5%
punchP into Koushu RensuiPP482.3%
guardG361.7%
Shicchi Soutai3K+G351.7%
forward dash into Senkyutai1K341.6%
Banchu6P into Banchu Renkanshu6PP301.4%

267 further openings account for the other 1,111 rounds.

Counted from 514 of the 526 matches played. The rest were not pulled for openings.

By stage type

Record against each character on walled and open stages, as Lion

OpponentWallsNo wallsWalls vs open, rank-adjusted, pts
Akira19–11 · 63%4–7 · 36%too few to test
Lion16–7 · 70%15–2 · 88%too few to test
Shun14–11 · 56%11–1 · 92%too few to test
Jacky17–5 · 77%4–5 · 44%too few to test
Sarah14–7 · 67%9–4 · 69%too few to test
Aoi12–7 · 63%4–1 · 80%too few to test
Vanessa11–5 · 69%7–5 · 58%too few to test
Lau9–9 · 50%7–3 · 70%too few to test
El Blaze14–6 · 70%2–5 · 29%too few to test
Goh17–5 · 77%5–2 · 71%too few to test
Kage12–2 · 86%3–4 · 43%too few to test
Pai10–6 · 62%7–2 · 78%too few to test
Jeffry10–9 · 53%1–3 · 25%too few to test
Brad8–1 · 89%7–6 · 54%too few to test

Walls: every fence, rectangle and octagon stage. No walls: open, low fence and single-wall stages. Snow Mountain and Training Room are left out.

12 of this character's decided matches could not be matched to the round-openings pull, which is what says the character was played, and are left out of this table.

How is this tested?

Vanessa

Career
270–173 · 61.0%
This season
197 matches · 57.9%
Peak rank
41

First hit in 26.7% of 805 rounds. Won 57.7% of the rounds they struck first, 54.6% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

  • After the opponent opened the round before by waiting: waits first in 20.6% of rounds, against 6.6% after anything else.
  • After winning a round: backs off first in 43.2% of rounds, against 23.9% after losing one.
  • When behind: attacks straight away in 55.9% of rounds, against 36.5% when ahead or level.
  • In round 4 or later: opens with “Defensive Style: Wind Elbow” in 8.3% of rounds, against 1.2% in their other rounds.
  • Against Vanessa: opens with “Offensive Style: backdash into evade down” in 19.0% of rounds, against 4.2% against everyone else.
  • After losing a round: opens with “Offensive Style: Sweet Leg Slash” in 8.3% of rounds, against 1.2% after winning one.
  • When behind: opens with “Offensive Style: Sweet Leg Slash” in 8.1% of rounds, against 2.3% when ahead or level.

How is this tested?

Defensive Style: Stinger Low Blow546.7%
Offensive Style: backdash into evade down405.0%
Offensive Style: Sweet Leg Slash324.0%
Offensive Style: backdash into evade up303.7%
Defensive Style: Wind Elbow253.1%
Offensive Style: backdash into Spinning Savate66K+G232.9%
Defensive Style: backdash into evade down222.7%
Offensive Style: Leg Slicer into throwP+G202.5%
Offensive Style: punch202.5%
Defensive Style: backdash into Stinger Low Blow1P+K182.2%
Defensive Style: backdash into evade up162.0%
Offensive Style: Bunker Buster151.9%
Offensive Style: crouch dash forward into guardG151.9%
Defensive Style: Shadow Slicer141.7%
Defensive Style: punch131.6%

201 further openings account for the other 449 rounds.

By stage type

Record against each character on walled and open stages, as Vanessa

OpponentWallsNo wallsWalls vs open, rank-adjusted, pts
Brad9–10 · 47%6–4 · 60%too few to test

Walls: every fence, rectangle and octagon stage. No walls: open, low fence and single-wall stages. Snow Mountain and Training Room are left out.

How is this tested?

Akira

Career
353–142 · 71.3%
This season
184 matches · 72.8%
Peak rank
43

First hit in 53.8% of 717 rounds. Won 62.4% of the rounds they struck first, 63.8% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

  • Against Jacky: backs off first in 67.8% of rounds, against 40.1% against everyone else.
  • After opening the round before by moving in: moves in first in 37.7% of rounds, against 19.9% after anything else.
  • After winning a round: backs off first in 49.4% of rounds, against 25.3% after losing one.
  • When behind: attacks straight away in 37.8% of rounds, against 25.6% when ahead or level.
  • Against Jacky: opens with “backdash into evade down” in 22.0% of rounds, against 7.0% against everyone else.
  • After losing a round: opens with “forward dash into 6P Jouho Touken” in 12.0% of rounds, against 4.7% after winning one.

How is this tested?

backdash into evade down608.2%
backdash into evade up506.8%
forward dash into Jouho Touken6P486.5%
backdash into Rimon Chouchu66P334.5%
Rimon Chouchu66P273.7%
Senzankou66P+K into throwP+G223.0%
backdash into Goko Shutsudou3K+GP212.9%
crouch dash forward into Jouho Touken6P202.7%
crouch dash forward into forward dash192.6%
Jouho Touken6P172.3%
punchP into forward dash162.2%
Rimon Chouchu66P into forward dash152.0%
backdash into Jouho Touken6P141.9%
punchP141.9%
backdash into Satei3K+G131.8%

111 further openings account for the other 346 rounds.

By stage type

Record against each character on walled and open stages, as Akira

OpponentWallsNo wallsWalls vs open, rank-adjusted, pts
Brad8–5 · 62%4–2 · 67%too few to test

Walls: every fence, rectangle and octagon stage. No walls: open, low fence and single-wall stages. Snow Mountain and Training Room are left out.

How is this tested?

Kage

Career
743–361 · 67.3%
This season
151 matches · 63.6%
Peak rank
43

First hit in 50.2% of 601 rounds. Won 61.9% of the rounds they struck first, 51.5% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

  • Against Jean: moves in first in 26.1% of rounds, against 9.0% against everyone else.
  • After losing a round: attacks straight away in 55.8% of rounds, against 35.5% after winning one.
  • Against Brad: opens with “3P Fusenjin” in 9.0% of rounds, against 3.4% against everyone else.
  • On Low Fence stages: opens with “6P Hiji'uchi” in 25.0% of rounds, against 8.7% on the other stages.

How is this tested?

Hiji'uchi6P6410.5%
backdash into Gen'you4K+G437.0%
backdash into evade down396.4%
backdash into evade up396.4%
Fusenjin3P264.3%
Hagakure-ryu In Raijingeki46P+K233.8%
Hagakure-ryu In Shippujin4P+K+G into Hagakure-ryu In Shouryuzan3P203.3%
backward movement into Nagiharai6P+K172.8%
crouch dash forward into guardG172.8%
Hagakure-ryu In Raijingeki46P+K into Hagakure-ryu You Jumonji KamaeP+K+G152.5%
Hagakure-ryu In Raijingeki46P+K into punchP142.3%
backdash into Nakageri3K142.3%
backdash into guardG142.3%
forward dash into guardG122.0%
Hagakure-ryu In Shippujin4P+K+G into Hagakure-ryu In Kusanagigiri6P111.8%

102 further openings account for the other 243 rounds.

By stage type

Record against each character on walled and open stages, as Kage

OpponentWallsNo wallsWalls vs open, rank-adjusted, pts
Brad9–3 · 75%5–4 · 56%too few to test

Walls: every fence, rectangle and octagon stage. No walls: open, low fence and single-wall stages. Snow Mountain and Training Room are left out.

How is this tested?

Jeffry

Career
284–116 · 71.0%
This season
130 matches · 61.5%
Peak rank
43

First hit in 54.5% of 521 rounds. Won 58.5% of the rounds they struck first, 53.6% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

  • After losing a round: attacks straight away in 41.3% of rounds, against 19.4% after winning one.
  • When behind: attacks straight away in 45.2% of rounds, against 20.5% when ahead or level.
  • After winning a round: opens with “backdash into evade up” in 15.7% of rounds, against 7.3% after losing one.

How is this tested?

backdash into evade up6111.6%
backdash into evade down326.1%
punchP234.4%
backdash into Overblow Shoulder66P+K214.0%
Low Knuckle2P183.4%
crouch dash forward into guardG173.2%
Tsunami Beat3K+G142.6%
backdash into Double Hammer Down43P132.5%
forward movement into punchP112.1%
Elbow Butt6P101.9%
forward dash into Ducking Low2K+G101.9%
punchP into crouch dash forward101.9%
backdash into throwP+G91.7%
punchP into Double KnucklePP81.5%
Low Knuckle2P into backdash71.3%

118 further openings account for the other 264 rounds.

By stage type

Record against each character on walled and open stages, as Jeffry

OpponentWallsNo wallsWalls vs open, rank-adjusted, pts
Jacky9–4 · 69%3–3 · 50%too few to test

Walls: every fence, rectangle and octagon stage. No walls: open, low fence and single-wall stages. Snow Mountain and Training Room are left out.

How is this tested?

Lau

Career
248–123 · 66.8%
This season
78 matches · 62.8%
Peak rank
41

First hit in 48.7% of 304 rounds. Won 58.8% of the rounds they struck first, 54.5% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

No reliable tells for this character.

How is this tested?

Chugeki6P3511.4%
backdash into evade up3411.1%
backdash into Kensou4P216.8%
Fukko Kensou1P206.5%
backdash into evade down185.9%
backdash into Sako Soushou4P+K144.6%
Senchutai3K82.6%
backdash into Junho Chushou33P72.3%
backward movement into Chugeki6P72.3%
Kosoushou46P into forward movement61.9%
guardG51.6%
Chugeki6P into Hou'ou Soushou6PP41.3%
Kosoushou46P41.3%
backdash into Souchuken2P41.3%
Ko'en Senshi66K+G31.0%

77 further openings account for the other 117 rounds.

Jean

Career
297–142 · 67.7%
This season
29 matches · 58.6%
Peak rank
42

First hit in 64.7% of 119 rounds. Won 55.8% of the rounds they struck first, 52.4% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

Too few rounds to test opener patterns.

How is this tested?

Yoko'enpi6P3327.5%
backdash into evade down1411.7%
backdash into evade up86.7%
Renge Karitsumi2K+G43.3%
backdash into Tate'enpi33P43.3%
backdash into crouch dash forward32.5%
guardG into evade down32.5%
backdash into Gyaku Seikenzuki66P21.7%
backdash into Yoko'enpi6P21.7%
backward movement into guardG21.7%
forward dash into guardG21.7%
guardG21.7%
punchP21.7%
Chudan Mawashigeri3K into Chudan~Joudan Mawashigeri3KK10.8%
Chudan Mawashigeri3K into kickK10.8%

37 further openings account for the other 37 rounds.

Brad

Career
25–9 · 73.5%
This season
27 matches · 74.1%
Peak rank
34

First hit in 68.2% of 107 rounds. Won 65.8% of the rounds they struck first, 50.0% of the rounds they were struck first.

Significant Tells

Too few rounds to test opener patterns.

How is this tested?

Jaguar Tail2K+G1211.2%
Elbow Hook6P76.5%
backdash into evade down54.7%
backdash into evade up54.7%
punchP54.7%
Sharp Shoot1P43.7%
Sit Jab2P into backdash43.7%
backdash into Destruction Body3P+K43.7%
Elbow Hook6P into forward movement32.8%
backdash into Sharp Shoot1P32.8%
crouch dash forward into guardG32.8%
punchP into Jab StraightPP32.8%
Dtee Sawk Dtrohng4P+K21.9%
Ducking6P+K+G into Crush Knee KickK+G21.9%
Sit Jab2P21.9%

35 further openings account for the other 43 rounds.

El Blaze

Career
35–11 · 76.1%
This season
21 matches · 81.0%
Peak rank
35

Significant Tells

Too few rounds to test opener patterns.

How is this tested?

backdash into evade up1721.2%
crouch dash forward into guardG78.8%
Rolling Low Knuckle1P67.5%
Low Spin Kick2K+G22.5%
Shouda46PP into Rising Back Spin Kick46PPK22.5%
backdash into Head Smash Kick46K22.5%
backdash into Shadow Lance66K22.5%
backdash into punchP22.5%
backdash into throw escape22.5%
forward dash into Rolling Low Knuckle1P22.5%
forward dash into guardG22.5%
guardG into Shadow Spear6K22.5%
punchP22.5%
Darkness Sword43K+G11.2%
High-Speed Jab46P into evade down11.2%

28 further openings account for the other 28 rounds.

Goh

Career
79–24 · 76.7%
This season
1 matches · 0.0%
Peak rank
34

Significant Tells

Too few rounds to test opener patterns.

How is this tested?

Hiji'ate6P125.0%
Ni'oudaoshi3K+G125.0%
crouch dash forward into guardG125.0%
punchP125.0%

How these are tested

A tell is a habit in how this player starts a round: something they do clearly more often in one situation than in the others — backing off more in round 2, say, or opening with one move more against one character. Each situation is compared with how they actually opened their rounds, and a tell is listed only if it is too strong to be a fluke even after allowing for how many situations were checked on this page. Anything weaker is left out, so a character with no tells listed may still have habits, just none the data can show for certain.

  • An opener is filed by what the player did first: attack (a named move or any button), move in (forward dash, forward movement or crouch dash forward), wait (guard, crouch or no input), back off (backdash, crouch dash back or backward movement) or evade. Each is also tested as the exact opener: the character's five most used, and the rest together.
  • Up to ten things known before a round starts are tested against the opener: which round it is, the opponent's character, the ring shape, how the player opened the round before and how the opponent did, whether they won or lost the round before, who landed the first hit of the round before, whether they go into it ahead, level or behind, and -- where a Shun is playing -- the drink points he starts it on: the player's own if they are Shun, the opponent's if they face one. Each is a chi-square test, divided by how much more alike the rounds of one match are than separate rounds would be, and never made more generous by it. Checked by shuffling the data so that nothing is there: the tests then find something no more often than chance allows.
  • Round results and drink points come from each match's round record, matched to its openers by the two players and the date. A match whose record is missing, lacks rounds the openers have, or does not add up to the match's result sits out of those four tests only. These four are compared only between rounds of the same number -- the score and the drinks follow from which round it is (every match starts level and on no drinks), so a pattern that is only “the first round is different” is not counted as one of theirs. Drawn rounds count toward neither side of the score, and the round after one has no previous result. Drink points are grouped as on the Shun report (none, 1–4, 5–9 and so on), with neighbouring groups joined where they are thin.
  • A character is tested with at least 300 rounds from 30 matches. Rare cases are pooled before testing, and a pattern is only named where it holds up after correcting for every test on this page (106 here; about 5.3 would come up by chance alone before the correction).
  • Walls against open is tested per opponent with 30+ matches and 10+ different players on each side, allowing for both players' ranks, and corrected across every player page at once: 0 of 2,552 hold up. With stages shuffled at random: 0 of 2,651–2,673.

Tests behind each character's list

  • Jacky: 11 of 17 tests hold up
  • Lion: 11 of 16 tests hold up
  • Vanessa: 7 of 16 tests hold up
  • Akira: 6 of 15 tests hold up
  • Kage: 4 of 15 tests hold up
  • Jeffry: 3 of 15 tests hold up
  • Lau: 0 of 12 tests hold up
  • Jean: not tested (too few rounds)
  • Brad: not tested (too few rounds)
  • El Blaze: not tested (too few rounds)
  • Goh: not tested (too few rounds)